Doing Things Better
Mark Kleiman has a useful post on the problems with cost-benefit analysis, which is to say, the problems with the way we estimate the worth of regulatory changes. For instance:
Formal benefit cost analysis counts everyone's gains and losses equally. But common sense and the principle of diminishing marginal utility agree that a dollar's worth of gain is more valuable to someone with few dollars than it is with someone with many. Obviously, taking $1 each from 900,000 poor people to give $1 million to a hedge-fund billionaire doesn't reflect a social gain, but a formal benefit-cost analysis will show that it does: after all, the net benefit is $100,000. Thus gains and losses should be adjusted by (at least) dividing each gain or loss by the income or wealth of the person bearing it, so that a $20 gain to a family with an income of $20,000 weighs as a heavily as a $10,000 gain to a family with an income of $1 million.
Kleiman ends his post with the sort of policy prescription we actually don't see enough of:
The Congress should order the administration to commission a study by the National Research Council to establish a set of standards for regulatory benefit-cost analysis, which can then be written into the statutes that require such analysis before a regulation can be issued, and adopted by OMB for benefit-cost analysis done in other administrative contexts. The legislation establishing the study should tell the NRC to develop rules that embody distributional adjustments, Bayesian weighting of uncertain gains and losses, and willingness-to-pay evaluation of gains and losses that do not come with market prices attached.
There's a lot of focus in American politics on doing better things. But there's rather less attention paid to doing things better. If we change the process by which we pass laws, for instance, we might eventually arrive in a world in which we can actually pass good laws, rather than compromising them down to the point of maximum incoherence. If we increase the evidence available to lawmakers, or improve the analytical approach they use to judge policy success, we can help lawmakers craft better products. And the nice thing is, these changes are actually really cheap. A lot cheaper than, say, increasing health-care subsidies without knowing what treatments work.
By
Ezra Klein
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August 31, 2009; 1:08 PM ET
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Posted by: exgovgirl | August 31, 2009 1:24 PM | Report abuse
This really encompasses most of our problems in the US. If we addressed this issue(s), we would be better able to handle all the others; health care, global warming, inequality, education, etc.
However, I think that part of doing things better is making our election and representation selection work better; to attract better civil servants, discourage self-servers, promote the race for votes and neutralize the race for dollars, and reform or eliminate the Senate.
Posted by: bcbulger | August 31, 2009 2:22 PM | Report abuse
I clicked through to post a comment and discovered that exgovgirl had already made it. We can't get people to trust basic statistics, how can we get them to accept that a monte carlo simulation has value?
Posted by: DonWhiteside | August 31, 2009 2:27 PM | Report abuse
There are requirements for regulatory CBA (which were recently enhanced to include uncertainty analysis that is typically done with a Monte Carlo simulation of some sort). See Executive Order 12866 and OMB circular A-4. These are not perfect, and the analyses done in response to them are rarely perfect (especially from the distributional perspective), but Ezra's post and the earlier comments seem to assume that such requirements would be a new thing altogether.
Posted by: bdballard | August 31, 2009 4:21 PM | Report abuse
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Good points all, but would'nt they just bring on the same type of hysteria that sampling does with the Census?
(Sigh.) Its hard to come up with a way to do intelligent policy for a nation of know-nothings.