Who Is the Dealmaker?
Earlier today, I did a spot on CBS Unplugged (a weird name for an Internet show. Maybe it's all wifi?), and they asked who, in Kennedy's absence, can broker the final deal on health care. The problem is that there's no answer. Or, more precisely, many answers. And that's because there are many deals.
If health care takes the bipartisan route, Max Baucus remains the dealmaker. He's trying the hardest to attract Republicans and has done the most to demonstrate good faith. If they won't bargain with Baucus, they won't bargain with anybody.
If it takes a more traditional route, with a bill moving through Finance on a largely partisan basis, Chuck Schumer is probably the dealmaker. He's been active enough on the public plan to win the trust of many liberals but is a pragmatic negotiator trusted by centrists. He's straddling the two sides of the party better than anyone else and will probably use that to fashion a compromise he can sell to both.
If heath care goes through reconciliation, then Harry Reid and the rest of the Senate leadership make the deal. That, after all, is a question of holding the Democrats together, which makes it a question for the leadership.
And in all of these scenarios, the White House is going to play a large role in cutting the final bargain. The Gang of Six needs assurances that the administration will protect their compromise. The leadership needs the sort of pressure that is only delivered by a call from the president or a visit from Rahm. The House and the Senate, when bringing their bills together, are going to look for the kind of bottom-line guidance and pressure that can only be delivered by an outside authority.
By
Ezra Klein
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August 27, 2009; 2:53 PM ET
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Posted by: PorkBelly | August 27, 2009 2:58 PM | Report abuse
Ezra:
Good link that's worthy of it's own entry:
http://energycommerce.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1717&catid=156&Itemid=55
That's Waxman's vaunted staffers in action at the Energy and Commerce Committee breaking impact of HR 3200 down district by district. It's not fresh, as it was posted back in late July. But it's very topical in aiming the impact on some of the districts of the Blue Dogs and the Fence Sitters.
John
Posted by: toshiaki | August 27, 2009 3:09 PM | Report abuse
PorkBelly: HELP doesn't have jurisdiction over Medicare or Medicaid and can't raise revenues. Its bill, while an important part of the process, doesn't include all of the pieces, so can't by itself by the Senate's working document in conference.
Posted by: Mike_Russo | August 27, 2009 3:13 PM | Report abuse
Since no health care bill seems more likely than some health care reform at present (didn't some Dem. Senator say yesterday no bill in 2009?), my bet is that Obama will take whatever he can get to avoid the Clinton Disaster. Baucus is refusing to name a date certain, or even name a date for renewed 'negotiations'. McCain is saying that Teddy would take way more time if he were only there - and that's going to be the GOP mantra: Passing a bill would violate Ted's wishes.
Let's face it: there is NO Dem. Senator who has the clout and the will to lead the sheep out of the desert into greener pastures.
If the Dems force people with the mandate to buy insurance and don't provide a way to say they want to select a government plan (instead of private greed insurance), then the bill deserves to die. Who in DC would notice if more people got left in the healthcare ditch?
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | August 27, 2009 3:35 PM | Report abuse
I don't really understand what kind of reform we're seeking if, as the president says, you can keep what you have today if you want. Keeping what we have means reform has failed.
If the "reform" is forcing people currently without insurance to buy a plan on the individual market, then the only winners are the insurance companies, who get to expand their consumer base with little to no changes in how they do business.
If reform means a lot more regulations that spell out how docs need to discuss end of life issues with patients, that's an area that frankly, as someone who's participated in such discussions, is not best done with a government mandated script and timetable.
And if Ted Kennedy's passing signals the death knell to reform efforts, it wasn't much of an effort to begin with.
Posted by: anne3 | August 27, 2009 3:50 PM | Report abuse
If the deal goes through Baucus and Grassley, it will be little, tiny health care reform. Get out your microscope.
Posted by: glewiss | August 27, 2009 4:27 PM | Report abuse
Mike_Russo:
What is to stop the leadership from using the HELP bill and utilize the House bills to fill in the gaps re:Medicare & Medicaid?
Does the Senate have to speak on Medicare & Medicaid through Baucus?
Can't they just vote on a final version when/if it gets to the floor?
Posted by: PorkBelly | August 27, 2009 4:36 PM | Report abuse
There's no way this plan doesn't go through reconciliation, so we can cross the other ideas off the list.
We should buy off the Blue Dogs by making the plan more favorable to their rural underserved districts, which is something we should do anyway.
Posted by: bmull | August 27, 2009 4:57 PM | Report abuse
Ezra:
Are you arguing unequivocally that there will be legislation this year? Just weeks ago you were arguing unequivocally there would be a public option in the final legislation.
So for the record: despite the insanity of the past few weeks, you're confident a strong bill will pass in '09, possibly with a public option? That all the efforts of Grassley and Inhofe and the GOP to kill reform will fail?
Please be clear and state what we should expect in the coming weeks.
-S. (aka BrklynLibrul)
Posted by: scarlota | August 27, 2009 5:40 PM | Report abuse
Doesn't that question imply that they believe that Kennedy could have brokered a deal? You should have called them on that. A question like that doesn't deserve an answer. It deserves another question. Ask them what evidence they have. That's what I do when people ask me when I'm going to stop beating my wife.
Posted by: earther | August 27, 2009 11:45 PM | Report abuse
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If push comes to shove and they go with a partisan bill, why does the Gang of 6's compromise need to be respected?
Why not just use the HELP version for conference?
It has over 150 Republican amendments & the Ted Kennedy stamp of approval.
I hate to be crass but the Democrats need to use every weapon in their arsenal right now and that includes the legacy of Ted Kennedy.