Viva La Congress?
Andrew Gelman thinks the Democrats might lose the House in 2010. Other people try to debunk him. I try not to make predictions on these things 13 months before the next election, but here's a prediction I'm comfortable making: Sometime in the next two or three election cycles, Democrats will lose one or both chambers of Congress.
That's how it goes. The midterms are traditionally bad for the incumbent party. The second set of midterms -- so 2014, if Obama holds the White House -- are traditionally really bad for incumbent party. History's pretty clear on this stuff.
The point of having a majority in Congress is not to retain your majority in Congress. It's to do as much good stuff as you can before the structural dynamics of American politics -- or the idiocies and tactical errors of your colleagues -- put an end to your reign. Coldplay had a good take on this.
Weren't expecting a Coldplay video in this post, were you? Point being, if you're going to be some former chairman chafing in the minority in a few years, better to do so with the comforting knowledge that your many legislative achievements assured your place in the history books and bettered the lives of millions of Americans.
September 25, 2009; 10:01 AM ET
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