Does the Stock Market Affect Elections?
Joshua Tucker says no:
Studies of economic voting in the United States show a strong relationship between economic conditions and presidential vote (or vote for the president’s party in congressional elections), but the variables that have tended to matter have been more focused on economic grows (e.g., change in real disposable income) than the stock market. In fact, a 2001 study by Michael Lewis Beck and Charles Tien (gated) concluded that “despite the current talk about using stock market performance as an economic indicator [in economic voting models], we found it had no vote effect after all.”
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