Nate Silver thinks Democrats will probably lose some Senate seats in 2010. But maybe they'll pick up a couple! Or lose a bunch! Hard to say. I'll just note that Democrats will definitely lose their supermajority sooner than later. If not, something is going seriously wrong in the system. A competitive, two-party democracy shouldn't have long periods of single-party dominance. The mid-20th century, which did see Democrats with that sort of majority in the House, was the product of a three-party system in which a party of conservative, racist Southerners entered into a coalition with the Democrats. But that's over now.
The big caveat, I'd say, is that there's some chance that the fringe conservative movement becomes a third-party -- in effect, if not in name -- over the next few years. That's the implication of David Brooks's column on conservative politicians vying to lead the Tea Partiers, and its the exact situation we saw in New York's 23rd. I don't think it's a hugely likely outcome, but the movement's extremism, mixed with an unstable economic moment, makes it foolish to entirely discount the possibility.
In any case, the likely outcome is that Democrats lose seats in 2010. Supermajorities don't traditionally last long; incumbent parties generally don't do well during midterm elections; majority parties are by definition defending more seats; and high unemployment numbers are rarely good for reelection prospects. The measure of a supermajority is how much it accomplishes while it exists, not how long it manages to survive.
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