Could LBJ have passed health-care reform in 2010?
Earlier today, I was asked whether LBJ could've passed the health-care reform bill with more ease and grace. I don't really think so, though maybe he would've sped the process a bit. But here's what I do wonder.
LBJ operated in a world where the filibuster was not relevant to most policy initiatives (the major exception being civil rights). When his aides were crafting their Medicare strategy, for instance, the filibuster was not a consideration. But while Medicare experienced some close calls en route to passage, it did pick up a dozen or so Republicans in the final vote.
Some of that, of course, reflects historical differences in the two parties. The Republicans had a wing of Northeastern liberals that have long since become Democrats. The Democrats had conservative Southerners who've long since become Republicans. But is some of it legislative strategy, too?
In a world with no filibuster, where a particular bill's passage is close to assured, how frequently can the opposition party simply sit on its hands? Eventually, interest groups and constituents will become annoyed that no one is representing them. But in a world with the filibuster, where the smart bet is always against passage, then the opposition can aim to kill the bill rather than get their ideas into it because some interest groups and constituents would like to see the bill killed and their allies returned to the majority.
There are other forces here, of course. There will always be partisans who demand unyielding opposition, and they can launch primary challenges and run pressure campaigns. But it's hard for me to believe that a world where obstruction is not substantively effective -- a world in which it does not routinely block bills or make the majority look incompetent -- is a world where it remains the favored strategy. Conversely, I believe that a world in which obstruction is effective is a world in which it remains the dominant minority strategy.
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