Pelosi and the White House say they've nearly got the votes
Jon Chait comments on the latest whip counts:
MSNBC's First Read reports, "We’re told that the White House and House Dem leaders are fewer than five votes away from 216." I have always thought that the key is to get within four or five votes. Once you're there, you're very likely to win. Why? Because then the White House and Democratic leaders can concentrate all their attention on a few holdouts. And they can make an irresistible argument: If you don't vote for this bill, you will be responsible for the political and moral disaster that ensues. I just don't think anybody is willing to be the person who kills health care reform. They may hold back, they may want to see if the bill is going to die anyway, and they may want somebody else to go first. But when the finish line is in sight, they won't say no.
As I've said, I don't put much stock in whip counts. But I think passage is very likely at this point, which is not the same as saying it's assured. And that's not a particularly optimistic judgment: The betting markets have passage in the 70s right now.
By
Ezra Klein
|
March 18, 2010; 2:01 PM ET
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Posted by: jkaren | March 18, 2010 2:05 PM | Report abuse
yes we can!
yes we can!
restoring faith, that things can work for the good,
despite great and harsh odds!
we can do something meaningful and good and humane!!!!!!
there is no such thing as small change!!!
every hard-won step in the right direction,
is a great victory.
:-)
Posted by: jkaren | March 18, 2010 2:11 PM | Report abuse
Other incentives: Whether the DCCC and Pres will help their campaign; whose seat gets redistricted out in those states that stand to lose seats after the census. There's alot on the table.
I'm cautiously optimistic.
Posted by: Mimikatz | March 18, 2010 2:16 PM | Report abuse
You are rrrright, we this kind Dem Reps (Lynch), who needs GOP?
http://www.openleft.com/diary/17894/rep-stephan-lynch-to-vote-no-endangers-passage
He, Stupak, another one Arizona hold out for immigrant support; all these are the 'deal killers' you are looking at.
Really, these Democrats are horrible. People will ensure that they are not voted back because they cannot govern.
There is a GOP Senator who is on record saying that 'slaying HCR' is end of Obama Presidency and then where are you going to get your next Progressive Government? Wait for 3 more decades at the door of 'bankrupt USA'. That is what Dems who are voting NO are bringing. This is height of 'irresponsible and non-accountability'. It is shame that we have such Dems and no matter how long Obama stays in Washington DC; these Dems will kill the bill.
Unbelievable.
Posted by: umesh409 | March 18, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse
@umesh409: "these Dems will kill the bill."
Are you saying that the bill is going to fail? Or are you just saying that if it does, it will be their fault? Because, yes, if it does fail, then it will be their fault.
However, right now, it seems to have a very good chance of passing. So, good for the Dems.
So, if it does pass, will that embolden Democrats, or will they have become too gunshy to attempt to pass any other meaningful legislation, like Cap and Trade or Immigration Reform?
Posted by: Kevin_Willis | March 18, 2010 2:31 PM | Report abuse
Looks like another MA Rep. is rethinking too. Scott Brown election is re-vibrating here as these MA Reps do not bring any 'sense' to the vote.
MA has been really a bad deal for rest of USA. First, they have their own comprehensive health care but when it comes to extending to deserving folks in rest of the country (and sick in Red States) these MA Dems stop that and kill such initiatives. Really shame and saddening....
Posted by: umesh409 | March 18, 2010 2:34 PM | Report abuse
Looks like another MA Rep. is rethinking too. Scott Brown election is re-vibrating here as these MA Reps do not bring any 'sense' to the vote.
MA has been really a bad deal for rest of USA. First, they have their own comprehensive health care but when it comes to extending to deserving folks in rest of the country (and sick in Red States) these MA Dems stop that and kill such initiatives. Really shame and saddening....
Posted by: umesh409 | March 18, 2010 2:34 PM | Report abuse
---------------------------------------
How are the healthcare costs and wait times in MA?
Posted by: Holla26 | March 18, 2010 2:43 PM | Report abuse
Hurray! We are so close to passing something no one understands, that'll cost billions and won't do anything to fix health care! Hurray!!!!
But we were promied Unicorns. And Skittles. Lots of 'em.
Posted by: luca_20009 | March 18, 2010 2:50 PM | Report abuse
"But we were promied Unicorns. And Skittles. Lots of 'em.
The unicorns died. They ate nothing but skittles and when into a diabetic coma.
Posted by: NoVAHockey | March 18, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse
There is no doubt that the bill will pass eventhough it is the worst legislation to come along in decades!!! Obama has made this his only priority and will "sell" or cajol the remaining Dems to come to the 216! But, he will be throwing his pals under the bus for his own vision for America....payback for those that elected him & entitlemens for everyone!
visit: http://eclecticramblings.wordpress.com
Posted by: my4653 | March 18, 2010 3:09 PM | Report abuse
"Hurray! We are so close to passing something no one understands, that'll cost billions and won't do anything to fix health care! Hurray!!!!
But we were promied Unicorns. And Skittles. Lots of 'em.
Posted by: luca_20009 | March 18, 2010 2:50 PM | Report abuse"
well, hopefully, if this bill passes, many of us will treat ourselves to something nice to eat (though many of us do not eat candy with artificial flavors and colors, so skittles would not be the most popular choice!) but you will have your choice of a nice plate of tokay or concord grapes....the concord being a bit more tart, and now, out of season.
and unicorns never die, they are immortal.
Posted by: jkaren | March 18, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse
"the unicorns died."
have you ever seen them on an endangered species list??
of course not!!!!
dont be silly.
Posted by: jkaren | March 18, 2010 3:15 PM | Report abuse
'Kevin_Willis' - I am talking about Dem Reps who for extreme ideological reasons are NOT voting with the bill and that will make it fail to pass.
Knowing that public has so much revulsion about the process and GOP has made it as the most important political issue (rightly or wrongly, that you cannot bother when you are in the middle of the battle); to keep dragging this process of 'yes' to 'no' and then back to 'yes' is not good and more that happens; harder it is going to pass the bill.
As Ezra is saying, at this point as CBO numbers are out since coverage is increased, subsidies are fine and comparatively better cost controls are in place; Dem Reps should come out clean (like Kucinich) and rather get engaged in defending it from last attacks coming from GOP. Instead what is happening is all Dem energy and political capital is completely spend in dousing infighting rather and cohesively cover from GOP attack. This very urge of 'holding till last minute' to exploit the leadership in extracting some concessions - that is the wrong politics on part of these Dem Reps. They need to stop that.
Posted by: umesh409 | March 18, 2010 3:15 PM | Report abuse
Forget about all the massive improvements that this legislation will bring to healthcare for Americans.
Just think of it as the biggest deficit reduction bill in history.
This is even bigger than Clinton overcoming the objections of every Republican in Congress to set this country's fiscal policy back on a responsible track in 1993 following 12 years of profligate Reagan-Bush spending.
And the ONLY new taxes it includes are for union fat cats whose insurance policies cost nearly $30k per year.
Posted by: paul65 | March 18, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse
Looks like another MA Rep. is rethinking too. Scott Brown election is re-vibrating here as these MA Reps do not bring any 'sense' to the vote.
MA has been really a bad deal for rest of USA. First, they have their own comprehensive health care but when it comes to extending to deserving folks in rest of the country (and sick in Red States) these MA Dems stop that and kill such initiatives. Really shame and saddening....
Lynch wants to get re-elected, and the only way is a no vote. If a rep from mass wont vote for this bill it should tell you something!
Posted by: obrier2 | March 18, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse
Endandered list -- no. cause they're all gone. every last one.
I'm hoping to toast the defeat of this bill. Maybe I'll have a beer with the candy floating in it. you know skittlebrau. and it's a shame about the unicorns. nothing goes better with a skittlebrau than grilled unicorn.
Posted by: NoVAHockey | March 18, 2010 3:28 PM | Report abuse
"the unicorns died."
have you ever seen them on an endangered species list??
of course not!!!!
dont be silly.
Posted by: jkaren | March 18, 2010 3:15 PM | Report abuse
no but tigers are.
I'm sure its that evil Dick Cheney that killed all the tigers. And the other Republicans too.
Posted by: visionbrkr | March 18, 2010 3:31 PM | Report abuse
"If a rep from mass wont vote for this bill it should tell you something!"
It tells me that they are more interested in their seats then in what is best for the American people.
Cowards.
And anyone Rep. claims they "don't like the process" which keeps them from voting yes is just full of BS.
They are also cowards.
Posted by: vintagejulie | March 18, 2010 3:32 PM | Report abuse
And the ONLY new taxes it includes are for union fat cats whose insurance policies cost nearly $30k per year.
Posted by: paul65 | March 18, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse
its a shame that EVERYONE disagrees with you. Liberal MSNBC reporter Lawrence O'Donnell called this "the largest tax increase in history".
Sure its masked by subsidies for many but who cares its only money, right?
Posted by: visionbrkr | March 18, 2010 3:33 PM | Report abuse
In addition to Lawrence O'Donnell, Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman writes in his Conscience of a Liberal column (“Reform And Premiums, Explained”. New York Times (Blog), February 27, 2010) that "So average spending on insurance rises, and that’s a good thing. [...] Yes, all of this has to be paid for: we are, in the end, talking about a spending increase of around $900 billion over ten years. [...] Part of this sum will come out of higher taxes; part out of ending the subsidies for Medicare Advantage and other dubious uses of Medicare funds."
Sorry to bust the bag of Skittles®, but the current health care reform proposal is a huge tax increase.
Posted by: rmgregory | March 18, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse
"So, if it does pass, will that embolden Democrats"
Hahahahahaha! As if. If this bill does pass, it will be an aberration -- a rare exception to the continuing trend of Democratic gutlessness. (And I say this as a Dem who WISHES we had a few more spines on the Hill.)
Posted by: Janine1 | March 18, 2010 4:04 PM | Report abuse
When you look at the primary items in this bill, it's a no-brainer to vote 'yes'. Having said that, the amount of lobbying money by insurance companies and laughable reporting by media led to this fiasco. Some are rightfully afraid to speak or take a step. The courageous will do the right thing and pass this legislation. I've worked with many in Congress, the Senate and the current Administration over the years. My guess is there is a 95% probability it will pass.
Probably 2% of Americans can correctly identify what is in the bill. I don't fault the other 98%. The BS and politics affixed to healthcare reform is mind-boggling. I'm a pragmatist and realist. This bill is not perfect, but the economy cannot sustain our current healthcare system. Faux News keeps repeating that it's 1/6 of the U.S. Economy. True, but the Federal Government is 90% of their business. We already have socialized medicine in this country. We are just paying way too much for it.
Posted by: doolin-dalton | March 18, 2010 4:06 PM | Report abuse
And just for fun, how about another quote from good old Nobel-prize winning economist Paulo Krugman: "This is a reasonable, responsible plan. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise."
- From his March 12, 2010 column
I've got great insurance but I sure hope this passes for the benefit of my sister, and tens of millions of other US citizens like her.
And another thing... I was really frustrated at BHO in January feeling that his political capital had been squandered without anything to show for it (I was for good faith negotiations with Republicans before I was against it), but if this passes I'm back on board. My credit card will be out and ready to support him and like minded representatives in their next run for office. I'm even better at internet campaign donations than I am at blog commenting. Hope all you trolls are up for that fight too. (Note, this statement is not meant to discourage non-trolling opposing points of view. Those are great.)
Posted by: BHeffernan1 | March 18, 2010 4:12 PM | Report abuse
Getting closer! Keep up the awesome work Ezra!
Posted by: RichardHSerlin | March 18, 2010 4:26 PM | Report abuse
Truly a victory of historic proportions (assuming it passes).
One thing I loved about the "Rahm, vindicated? Progressives, vindicated?" post on Kos today was how it vindicated(??) the old saying, "Victory has many fathers..."
Posted by: leoklein | March 18, 2010 4:39 PM | Report abuse
The only thing I want to know is which Congressman (or woman's) vote was bought with "Sec. 1107. Payment for Imaging Services. Sets the assumed utilization rate at 75 percent for the practice expense portion of advanced diagnostic imaging services."
Posted by: JakeD2 | March 18, 2010 5:06 PM | Report abuse
Ezra do you endorse the puerile personal attacks promulgated against fellow progressives by your friend Jon Chait?
Posted by: bmull | March 18, 2010 9:06 PM | Report abuse
"Looks like another MA Rep. is rethinking too. Scott Brown election is re-vibrating here as these MA Reps do not bring any 'sense' to the vote.
MA has been really a bad deal for rest of USA. First, they have their own comprehensive health care but when it comes to extending to deserving folks in rest of the country (and sick in Red States) these MA Dems stop that and kill such initiatives. Really shame and saddening...."
you want to trade places? If you are looking to purchase an individual policy in MA (which you have to be right? since you are such a cheerleader). It will cost you about $1000 a month. Unless you are penniless. Which seems to be everyone here.
Posted by: davidring | March 18, 2010 9:39 PM | Report abuse
"Looks like another MA Rep. is rethinking too. Scott Brown election is re-vibrating here as these MA Reps do not bring any 'sense' to the vote.
MA has been really a bad deal for rest of USA. First, they have their own comprehensive health care but when it comes to extending to deserving folks in rest of the country (and sick in Red States) these MA Dems stop that and kill such initiatives. Really shame and saddening...."
you want to trade places? If you are looking to purchase an individual policy in MA (which you have to be right? since you are such a cheerleader). It will cost you about $1000 a month. Unless you are penniless. Which seems to be everyone here.
Posted by: davidring | March 18, 2010 9:39 PM | Report abuse
"Looks like another MA Rep. is rethinking too. Scott Brown election is re-vibrating here as these MA Reps do not bring any 'sense' to the vote.
MA has been really a bad deal for rest of USA. First, they have their own comprehensive health care but when it comes to extending to deserving folks in rest of the country (and sick in Red States) these MA Dems stop that and kill such initiatives. Really shame and saddening...."
you want to trade places? If you are looking to purchase an individual policy in MA (which you have to be right? since you are such a cheerleader). It will cost you about $1000 a month. Unless you are penniless. Which seems to be everyone here.
Posted by: davidring | March 18, 2010 9:40 PM | Report abuse
"Looks like another MA Rep. is rethinking too. Scott Brown election is re-vibrating here as these MA Reps do not bring any 'sense' to the vote.
MA has been really a bad deal for rest of USA. First, they have their own comprehensive health care but when it comes to extending to deserving folks in rest of the country (and sick in Red States) these MA Dems stop that and kill such initiatives. Really shame and saddening...."
you want to trade places? If you are looking to purchase an individual policy in MA (which you have to be right? since you are such a cheerleader). It will cost you about $1000 a month. Unless you are penniless. Which seems to be everyone here.
Posted by: davidring | March 18, 2010 9:43 PM | Report abuse
Someone asked about Section 1107 in the reconcilation bill in relation to radiology reimbursement. This section actually decreases reimbursement slightly relative to the Senate bill (still more than the House bill). However, in a slick move that's typical of this reform legislation, it heads off pending rules by CMS that would *dramatically* lower such reimbursement.
Posted by: bmull | March 18, 2010 9:47 PM | Report abuse
"Looks like another MA Rep. is rethinking too. Scott Brown election is re-vibrating here as these MA Reps do not bring any 'sense' to the vote.
MA has been really a bad deal for rest of USA. First, they have their own comprehensive health care but when it comes to extending to deserving folks in rest of the country (and sick in Red States) these MA Dems stop that and kill such initiatives. Really shame and saddening...."
you want to trade places? If you are looking to purchase an individual policy in MA (which you have to be right? since you are such a cheerleader). It will cost you about $1000 a month. Unless you are penniless. Which seems to be everyone here.
Posted by: davidring | March 18, 2010 10:13 PM | Report abuse
sorry about the multiple posts. browser hanging.
Posted by: davidring | March 18, 2010 10:16 PM | Report abuse
I live in MA and pay a fraction of the premium you're citing, davidring. Yes, I have an individual policy, and, no, my purchase is not subsidized.
Posted by: jeffwacker | March 19, 2010 12:37 PM | Report abuse
Looked up my bill, and it comes out to $240 a month for my individual policy.
Posted by: jeffwacker | March 19, 2010 12:40 PM | Report abuse
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yay!
hurray!!!!!!
many hearts hoping that victory is in sight!
like a ship finally sighting land,
after a long, difficult voyage.
pull out your binoculars!!!!
hurray!!!!!!
moving closer!