Ezra Klein: June 13, 2010 - June 19, 2010
Reconciliation
Only one link in reconciliation today, because I'm in awe of the reporting and writing that produced it and I want you all to read it. It's from Sean Flynn in GQ, and it chronicles the days before, and after,...
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June 18, 2010; 6:05 PM ET |
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13,600 diagnoses, Bob. 13,600.
From Atul Gawande's commencement speech at Stanford University's School of Medicine: The truth is that the volume and complexity of the knowledge that we need to master has grown exponentially beyond our capacity as individuals. Worse, the fear is that...
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June 18, 2010; 5:57 PM ET |
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Health Reform
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Republicans don't oppose stimulus when it fits their policy agenda
It's worth recalling that Republicans didn't always mistrust stimulus. They didn't even mistrust deficit-financed stimulus (not that there are many other kinds). Back when they were selling the Bush tax cuts, the original argument was that the economy was great...
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June 18, 2010; 5:00 PM ET |
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Column: Meet the anti-stimulus
A multiple choice question for you: Did the stimulus a) work; b) fail; c) end up locked in an unexpected battle with the massive anti-stimulus that's ripped through the states? Most people would choose "a" or "b" (though I'd...
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June 18, 2010; 3:50 PM ET |
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Articles
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Life matters!
This discussion between Greg Mankiw and David Leonhardt reads a bit like an economics textbook gone rogue. At issue is whether a soda tax makes sense. David Leonhardt says it does: There's good evidence that it will reduce obesity,...
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June 18, 2010; 3:13 PM ET |
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Health
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Health Economics
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Revolt of the freshmen
The most heartening news of the day is that there's a group of young senators who are threatening to vote against any energy bill that doesn't include a carbon cap. It seems they've not been around long enough to realize...
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June 18, 2010; 3:07 PM ET |
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Senate
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Tom Toles is worth ten thousand words
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June 18, 2010; 1:33 PM ET |
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Research desk reports: Do millionaires flee high-tax states?
By Dylan Matthews Dbfclark asks: Vis a vis the discussion on Yglesias and Delong about whether tax rates are causing high-income earners to migrate from high-tax states to low-tax ones: Is there any statistical evidence that this is going on,...
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June 18, 2010; 1:09 PM ET |
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Taxes
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Lunch break
The fine folks at TED hosted an informative and nuanced debate on whether we need to embrace nuclear energy. Worth a listen:...
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June 18, 2010; 12:38 PM ET |
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Mortgages and the state of nature
David Wessel had a good column this week on the role government supports play in creating our culture of homeownership. In particular, he points out the economic absurdity of the 30-year, fixed-rate, no prepayment-penalty mortgage, which Raj Date once...
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June 18, 2010; 12:19 PM ET |
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Economic Policy
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Good stimulus, bad stimulus
To draw out one of the points in Dylan's excellent post on various stimulus policies, not all stimulus is created equal. But the distinction that people are comfortable drawing is not the distinction that's actually relevant for stimulus. Normally,...
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June 18, 2010; 11:28 AM ET |
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Stimulus
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Mint.com's anti-immigrant agenda?
I'm a user of Mint.com, the sleek personal finance site that was recently purchased by Intuit, but I'm not happy to see it using its credibility as a finance site to promote absurd fear-mongering and dubious statistics from anti-immigration outlets....
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June 18, 2010; 10:36 AM ET |
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Social spending isn't the only spending that affects the deficit
David Leonhardt points out that the deficit-obsessed Peter G. Peterson Foundation is opposing the elimination of pricey tax cuts that help multinational corporations reduce their tax bills, and quotes Robert Choate saying that the public hopes the deficit "can be...
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June 18, 2010; 9:15 AM ET |
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Budget
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Wonkbook: Dems divided on climate bill; jobs bill fails again; Pelosi pulls DISCLOSE Act
Thursday was not a great day for Democratic congressional leadership: A Senate Democratic caucus meeting ended without consensus on a climate bill; the GOP, helped by Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman, successfully filibustered the weakened jobs bill; and following...
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June 18, 2010; 6:47 AM ET |
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Wonkbook
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Knives come out
We're still at the point in the season when I can talk about "Top Chef" without interfering with anyone's intricately plotted TiVo schedule. On the one hand, I have no intention of saying who got eliminated, because I don't...
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June 17, 2010; 5:47 PM ET |
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Food
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Research desk: What's a dollar of stimulus worth?
By Dylan Matthews BHeffernan1 asks: How many jobs does a federal gov dollar buy? Provide optimistic (most efficient -- extending unemployment? building a smart power grid?), median and pessimistic (tax cuts for wealthy?). For reasons Ezra has laid out in...
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June 17, 2010; 4:39 PM ET |
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Gallup poll: Americans favor more stimulus, partial health-care repeal
The lead of the latest Gallup poll is that 60 percent of Americans "favor additional government spending to create jobs and stimulate the economy." There's also support of regulations on private-industry carbon emissions, which is positive for those of us...
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June 17, 2010; 4:00 PM ET |
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Polls
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More Carter apologias
I like E.J. Dionne Jr.'s column today, but I have to argue with this lead: A weird malaise is haunting the Democratic Party. That's a risky word to use, I know. It's freighted with bad history and carries unfortunate implications....
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June 17, 2010; 3:52 PM ET |
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No country for old workers
There's some evidence that gainfully employed congressfolk are recoiling from extending unemployment benefits because they've trouble believing that anyone wouldn't be able to find a job after more than a year. To some degree, this reflects a view of the...
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June 17, 2010; 3:40 PM ET |
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Economy
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Why Ben Nelson thinks we're ready to move on to the deficit
In a post late yesterday, I took aim at Sen. Ben Nelson's stated reason for voting against the latest jobs bill. "Seventy-seven billion dollars or more of this is not paid for," he said, "and that translates into deficit...
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June 17, 2010; 2:05 PM ET |
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Economic Policy
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Lunch Break
Kung fu bear gets a light saber....
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June 17, 2010; 12:38 PM ET |
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How energy actually gets used
This graph is the clearest visualization of our energy economy that I've seen (click for a larger version): That graph comes by way of Keith Hennessey, who observes that "when battery technologies improve, the fuel and power worlds will blend...
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June 17, 2010; 12:14 PM ET |
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Charts and Graphs
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Energy
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How to filter out Vuvuzela noise
Lifehacker's got a credible-looking approach. You'll need to be watching on a television with a built-in equalizer, or using a stereo or computer, but from there, it's simple....
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June 17, 2010; 11:53 AM ET |
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Grim growth forecasts
I think that what a lot of people are looking for in the monthly economic numbers is a return to normalcy. Decent GDP growth, decent job creation, that sort of thing. But as the latest forecast out of UCLA's Anderson...
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June 17, 2010; 11:22 AM ET |
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Budget
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Research desk is open
Alright, you've got questions and Dylan Matthews, as you saw this morning, has answers. Who's next?...
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June 17, 2010; 11:17 AM ET |
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Opportunity knocks, but America probably won't answer
Ryan Avent posts a chart at his place that I find a bit hard to read but that takes dozens of countries and compares their total anticipated increase in health and pension spending from 2011 to 2030 with the total...
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June 17, 2010; 11:02 AM ET |
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Budget
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Affordable Care Act getting more popular?
I wouldn't put too much stock in one poll, but the AP-GfK poll shows support for health-care reform rising from 39 percent in May to 45 percent in June, while opposition fell from 46 percent to 42 percent. There's no...
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June 17, 2010; 10:27 AM ET |
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Health Reform
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Research desk responds: Tax rates galore!
By Dylan Matthews theorajones1 asks: What has happened to tax rates on median income people since 1980? Compared to everyone else? Can you do federal, state, and local? Luckily, the CBO has records (PDF) of effective federal tax rates, broken...
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June 17, 2010; 10:11 AM ET |
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Taxes
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Wonkbook: Jobs bill fails; BP puts up $20 bill; Legislators own millions in oil and gas stock
With unemployment still hovering near 10 percent, the jobs bill being considered in the Senate failed a key vote, and Senate Democrats are paring it back to with passage. Meanwhile, BP executives met with Obama and agreed to a...
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June 17, 2010; 6:43 AM ET |
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Wonkbook
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Reconciliation
Recap: Barack Obama repurposed his language from health-care reform for his speech on oil; it's hard to solve problems you don't feel comfortable naming; and the Senate seems to have decided that unemployment is pretty much okay at 9.7 percent....
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June 16, 2010; 6:55 PM ET |
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Unemployment may be at 9.7%, but the Senate is moving on
Or, at the least, they care about the deficit more. By a vote of 52 to 45, the Senate rejected a jobs package that would've extended unemployment insurance, offered some tax breaks to individuals and businesses, kept doctors in the...
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June 16, 2010; 5:30 PM ET |
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Economic Policy
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Depressingly relevant information
A step-by-step guide for cleaning oil off a pelican....
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June 16, 2010; 3:58 PM ET |
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What could Obama have said last night?
I'd go so far as to say that last night's speech got the worst reaction of any speech Obama has given since his address at the DNC convention in 2004. Ross Douthat rounds up some of the commentary, and...
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June 16, 2010; 3:50 PM ET |
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Climate Change
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How many urine samples can a small government process?
A while back, Matt Yglesias wrote an insightful piece arguing that "ideas about freedom and small government are totally irrelevant to the actual political agenda [of the Republican Party]." I was reminded of it by the news that small-government advocate...
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June 16, 2010; 2:15 PM ET |
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How do we know when the economy is back on solid ground?
I was interviewing economist Bruce Bartlett today about state and local finances and threw in a question about when we'd know the economy didn't need more stimulus. Bartlett, who previously worked for Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Jack Kemp,...
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June 16, 2010; 2:00 PM ET |
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Research desk
I'm thinking of calling this feature "ask my intern" rather than "research desk," but haven't made up my mind yet. That said, those who were reading yesterday will remember how this works: Ask a question with a factual answer in...
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June 16, 2010; 1:54 PM ET |
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Lunch break
If I were LeBron James, this offer from Mario Batali would absolutely get me to sign with the Knicks....
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June 16, 2010; 12:15 PM ET |
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'Five thousand spills like in the Gulf of Mexico'
That’s the rate that people are releasing carbon to the atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation today. I know, it’s apples and oranges; carbon in the form of oil is more immediately toxic to the environment than it is...
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June 16, 2010; 11:45 AM ET |
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Climate Change
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Hope you didn't have any Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac stock
The Federal Housing Finance Agency ordered the two mortgage giants to pull their stock off the market today. Annie Lowrey, who was late for the bus this morning, ran the numbers: In the past five years, both stocks have...
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June 16, 2010; 11:20 AM ET |
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Research desk answers: How to raise $100 billion from a financial transactions tax
By Dylan Matthews srw3 asks: How high would a financial transactions tax have to be to raise 100 billion a year? The tax should target high frequency trades. Retirement accounts under 1,000,000 would be exempt. 10 Trades a day per...
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June 16, 2010; 10:53 AM ET |
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Financial Regulation
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A conference strategy for a carbon price?
"Be aware," writes Marc Ambinder. "The White House has a strategy here for getting climate change legislation passed. It's called 'getting to conference.' That is, the Senate needs to pass a bill this year. And then the House and Senate...
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June 16, 2010; 10:46 AM ET |
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Climate Change
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Can you solve global warming without talking about global warming?
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy To expand a bit on a point I made on Rachel Maddow's show, I'm just not sure how you do a response to climate change if you can't...
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June 16, 2010; 9:57 AM ET |
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Wonkbook: Few details in speech; Dems may cut unemployment benefits; Obey plays hardball
Obama spoke from the Oval Office about plans to keep BP accountable and push for a comprehensive energy bill, though he stopped short of offering specifics: He didn't attach dollar amounts to the BP liability fund or the Gulf...
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June 16, 2010; 6:47 AM ET |
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Wonkbook
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Where have we heard this before?
The elements of Barack Obama's speech tonight that were specifically newsworthy were also broadly-expected: A liability fund that BP will pay into and that a third-party will distribute. A "long-term Gulf Coast Restoration Plan." Both ideas sound good. But...
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June 15, 2010; 8:10 PM ET |
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Reconciliation
Recap: Unearthing all of BP's mistakes won't end oil spills, Democrats are giving the NRA a sweetheart deal in campaign-finance reform, and I asked you what Obama should say tonight. And here's what else: 1) "These liberated chestnut curls framed...
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June 15, 2010; 6:45 PM ET |
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EPA evaluates the American Power Act
Both the Congressional Budget Office and the Environmental Protection Agency are a little weird when it comes to climate change. They score costs, but not benefits. There are good methodological reasons for this. But it's a bit like looking at...
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June 15, 2010; 6:13 PM ET |
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Alvin Greene
There's been a lot of talk about what sort of trickery and skullduggery and inanity could've produced Alvin Greene's win in South Carolina. But after reading all of it, I'm coming down on the side of Dave Weigel: Maybe the...
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June 15, 2010; 5:29 PM ET |
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Introducing research desk
I'm lucky this summer to have ace intern Dylan Matthews working with me at The Post. But I don't have quite as much for him to do as I'd like. So I'm opening it up to you fine folks. Longtime...
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June 15, 2010; 4:00 PM ET |
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How a bill becomes ironic
A friend, commenting on the Democrats' decision to exempt the NRA from the DISCLOSE Act: "I'd have imagined that if the Republicans developed a bill to try and respond to Citizens United, they'd have exempted their friends, like the NRA....
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June 15, 2010; 3:15 PM ET |
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Re: What Obama should say
I wanted to let the question stand on its own, but, for the record, here's my answer: I don't believe there's any alchemy Obama could use to turn 40-some votes for a carbon-pricing bill into 60. But the president's duties...
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June 15, 2010; 2:50 PM ET |
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What should Obama say tonight?
So here's the question: If you were Barack Obama, would you push hard for a carbon-pricing bill? The case for a major campaign is obvious: You believe, as do most people who've studied the issue, that we're courting catastrophe...
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June 15, 2010; 2:30 PM ET |
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What Obama could learn from Carter
Walter Shapiro argues that Barack Obama should take a page from Jimmy Carter's book, or at least his speeches. Somewhat counterintuitively, Shapiro argues that Obama should look to Carter's "malaise" speech for inspiration. That speech, as some of you know,...
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June 15, 2010; 12:40 PM ET |
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History
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Lunch break
In case you missed it in Wonkbook, here's England's World Cup match against the U.S. -- recreated in Legos....
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June 15, 2010; 12:14 PM ET |
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Could the BP oil spill increase GDP?
Annie Lowrey notes a J.P. Morgan Chase analysis suggesting the BP spill will actually raise the country's GDP, at least in the short term. "Cleaning up the spill will likely be enough to slightly offset the negative impact of...
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June 15, 2010; 11:35 AM ET |
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Economics
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'The fundamental fiscal error'
Bruce Bartlett: I think when the history of the current crisis is written much of blame will be placed on the sharp fiscal contraction of state and local governments, which offset almost all of the fiscal stimulus at the federal...
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June 15, 2010; 11:33 AM ET |
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Mistakes were made, but that's not the end of it
Henry Waxman is set to unleash the Mustache of Inquiry upon BP, and he's starting things off with a list of "shortcuts" and mistakes the energy giant used that may have contributed to the catastrophic spill. In a rush...
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June 15, 2010; 11:26 AM ET |
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Climate Change
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They can pry the NRA's donor list from its cold, dead hands
Quick back story: A few months back, the Supreme Court hands down the Citizens United case, which gives corporations the right to spend as much as they want, at any point they want, in elections. In an effort to blunt...
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June 15, 2010; 9:40 AM ET |
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Thinking outside the box
Kevin Drum proposes replacing the corporate-income tax with a carbon tax and a financial-services tax. As a wonk, sign me up. But I would not want to be the politician who goes to the voters to explain that he's going...
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June 15, 2010; 9:01 AM ET |
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Wonkbook: Obama might push carbon price; Waxman to investigate BP; NRA gets a special deal
Barack Obama will address the nation tonight after spending the day in the Gulf. The big question: Will he push a carbon-pricing bill, or not? His pollster has been circulating a memo to lawmakers arguing that the public wants...
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June 15, 2010; 6:46 AM ET |
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Reconciliation
You want a recap? I'll give you a recap. Here it is: What to do about short-term deficits and long-term deficits are different questions, and we're in danger of answering both of them incorrectly; there are some potentially good deals...
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June 14, 2010; 6:20 PM ET |
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Stimulus agonistes
I was talking with the Economic Policy Institute's Larry Mishel earlier today and he offhandedly made a good point about the politics of the stimulus. Economists and the politicians who love them have concluded that stimulus is better when...
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June 14, 2010; 4:55 PM ET |
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Putting their money where their mouths, committees and position papers are
Robert O'Harrow Jr. and Dan Keating had a great story today looking at lawmakers who heavily invest in the sectors they regulate or advocate. Ron Paul, for instance, is both leading a political movement based on increasing the value of...
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June 14, 2010; 4:31 PM ET |
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Fed should be doing more, says Fed
I got the chart above from Ryan Avent, but it's originally from a paper by Federal Reserve economist Glenn Rudebusch, and it's a credible, graphical representation of something you've heard about on a lot of blogs: If you're judging...
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June 14, 2010; 4:16 PM ET |
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Economic Policy
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We will be made out computers before we have electronic medical records
To say one more word on electronic medical records, the fact that it's 2010 and we're having a conversation about how to move records from paper to computers is evidence of how screwed up the American health-care system is....
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June 14, 2010; 3:50 PM ET |
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The tension between long-term investments and short-term stimulus
If I told you that the federal government had appropriated $34 billion in the stimulus package to help doctor's offices and hospitals computerize their medical records but that the program was running into problems, what would you guess was going...
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June 14, 2010; 3:13 PM ET |
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Tom Toles is worth a thousand words
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June 14, 2010; 2:51 PM ET |
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In defense of (some) processed foods
Mark Bittman takes aim at a particular peeve of mine: people's wildly inconsistent attitudes towards processed food. I've met plenty of folks who'll lament all the "processed crap" people feed to their kids and then pull out some vegetarian...
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June 14, 2010; 2:32 PM ET |
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Food
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Lunch break
An oddly whimsical video in which the guy from Contra discovers where Tetris blocks come from....
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June 14, 2010; 1:05 PM ET |
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One cost BP should not have to pay
I'm with Andrew Samwick on this one: I'll happily sign onto pretty draconian punishments for BP, but it's absurd to make them pay the lost wages of oil workers affected by the new moratorium on deep-water drilling. Robert Gibbs...
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June 14, 2010; 12:23 PM ET |
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Stimulus isn't free
One thing I should say amid my stimulus advocacy is that spending stimulus dollars is very smart, but that doesn't mean it's free. There's no "stimulus Laffer curve," as one budget expert put it to me. The basic math, if...
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June 14, 2010; 12:14 PM ET |
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Budget
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Worst-of-both-worlds fiscal policy
A lot of the debate over deficits right now comes down to how you feel about interest rates. Normally, interest rates should be a conversation-ending indicator. If our deficits are too high, interest rates on government debt should be...
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June 14, 2010; 11:42 AM ET |
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Where are the deficit deals?
"For a policy centered around economic growth to be credible in the short term we must show a commitment on returning to a fiscal sustainable path over the medium- and long-term." That's Larry Summers talking to E.J. Dionne and no,...
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June 14, 2010; 9:47 AM ET |
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The Woody Allen school of rapid response
Criticizing statements out of Mitch McConnell's office almost doesn't seem worth the trouble, but his response to Barack Obama's call for $50 billion in further stimulus bordered on satire. "Democrats are showing either that they just don't get it on...
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June 14, 2010; 9:40 AM ET |
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Wonkbook: Climate bill unlikely; major Medicare cuts scheduled; Obama's stimulus demands
In his first Oval Office speech Tuesday night, President Obama will demand that BP fund an independently-run fund to pay for the Gulf cleanup. That's the deliverable, at least. The bigger question is whether he uses the speech to...
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June 14, 2010; 6:30 AM ET |
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