Does divorce beget divorce?

it also changes your degree of credulity about how much better things could be with some outside option.

background music: Outside Woman Blues http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oarej9z--E

BP is now preparing to use untested drilling methods off the Alaska coast.

You know, I realize this is slightly off-topic, but almost nothing annoys me more in the gay marriage debate (other than out and out homophobia) than the argument that no society has ever tried to redefine marriage from being one man and one woman. It's just so completely factually stupid that I almost don't know where to begin. That anyone could say such utter nonsene in public without breaking into laughter is astounding.

"...no matter what kind of shape your marriage is in."

Poor Ross Douthat. He actually would have had something marginally interesting to say if he had concluded that a weak marriage is more likely to end in divorce (when one's friends and neighbors are divorcing), but instead he says the "shape your marriage is in" is inconsequential to the potential outcome of divorce.

Ross rarely manages to get all the way through one of his columns without this sort of complete mental collapse.

Ezra, I am even younger than you, but my understanding of marriage is that it's a bit more complex than "[i]f you're happy with your partner, if you wake up glad to see their face and go to bed glad to feel their warmth." Most marriages go thru ups and downs-no matter how much you love a person, you're never happy with them all the time. The question is what social norms do we want to have for what to do when someone is unhappy with their partner. Stick it out? Go for the no-fault divorce? There aren't any easy answers.
And yes, what all your friends are doing does influence you, on the margins. That's pretty much a no-brainer.

For people like Douthat, marriage isn't about the happiness of the partners. It's about some Higher Good that's supposedly being served. Staying in a bad marriage builds character and makes his deity smile.

I personally don't believe if someone or a couple close to me or my spouse will influence me or my husband to do the same. I have been married for over 22 years to the same man and we have had close friends who are divorced or are going through the process of a divorce. I believe if you want a good marital relationship, you have to work at it. I also believe its important to guard your heart and your mind not be duped into believing the lies about "the grass being greener on the other side". In other words, you will never find that perfect person or perfect relationship with anyone. I also believe anyone contemplating divorce should take the time to weigh the pro's and con's of divorce. For example, for every couple who has an extra marital affair or going through the divorce proceedings should consider how it affects at least 200 people who know them. If these individuals who divorce and re-marry the survival of that marrriage has a 20% less chance of making it. I truly believe that marriage is both rewarding worth fighting for and investing in. I look forward to spending the rest of my life with my loving husband

"no matter what kind of shape your marriage is in"?

Mercy, that's silly, and completely unsubstantiated. Patrick M was right on the money there.

When I think about how astonishingly easy it would be to be a right-wing pundit, either of the out-and-out moron "oil-is-natural" variety or the more nuanced "there's an interesting issue to explore here, but I'm just going to botch it with my sledgehammer of preconfirmed notions" variety, and make lots of moolah without any discernible work, I just want to sob.

I'd bet the opposite is true as well: If your friends get married, you are more likely to get married.

Then again, couldn't the age of those getting married/divorced also play a huge role? That's a study I'd like to see. Married by 30, divorced by 40. Is ther any truth to the "7 year itch" principle?

PS - Do you know why divorce is so expensive? BECAUSE IT IS WORTH IT!

I have not read the study, but I imagine it would be difficult to control for the possibility that high-risk divorce candidates are disproportionately likelier to be in social networks with other high-risk candidates than with low-risk candidates.

That could show up in age, number of marriages, religious affiliation, regional variation in divorce rates, etc.

As with many studies like this, it's much easier to show that people share common traits (correlation) than it is to show that they influence each other to engage in similar conduct (causation).

Of course he says things like that, he's Ross Douhat.

wife's BFF dumps rat husband after whining about his bad habits.She then needs a partner to hang out with so starts trashing friends partners,,,they start going out,drinking and the next thing you know having sex with the cable guy... it happens all the time

When you're desperate you'll grab at any straw. Conservatives want to keep the "Culture Wars" alive at all costs. Remember it's the dope-smoking, pro-divorse, anti-war, all natural environmentalist, tree-hugging hippies, the unshaven armpit women and group sex abortion as birth control commies against the god-fearing, responsible Christian Americans who just want to raise their kids in the suburbs with out sex, drugs and rock 'n roll leading them astray.

Golly, can't we just go back to an America that Ronald Reagan promised would be ours if we just got rid of government all together!

People get divorced for a million reasons. Marriage is hard enough without conservative moralists wanting the government to get involved.

"But that can't be right"

Actually it can. Newspaper reports of suicides increase the rate of single car automobile accidents. We're a suggestible species.

"Actually it can. Newspaper reports of suicides increase the rate of single car automobile accidents. We're a suggestible species."

Assuming that's true, Douthat would conclude that "no matter what kind of mood you are in," whether you are depressed or not, everyone is more likely to kill themselves if there are newspaper reports of sucides.

We may be suggestible, but the power of suggestion by itself does not drive major life decisions. The conditions need to be already ripe in order for the suggestion to be influential.

Even better, don't get married to start with.

http://weddedabyss.wordpress.com

Especially if you are going to be the Breadwinner Spouse. Under current laws, you will lose every time.

"but I think we really need to be careful about defining people as "happy" if the possibility of leaving their situation causes them to go through the emotionally and financially grueling process of fleeing."

I'm sorry, what? If the possibility of leaving causes them to flee? What does that mean?

First off, I'm appalled, Ezra, that you used the barbaric "based off of" instead of "based on."

On substance, I think that jfcarro put well the valid point that Douthat puts badly. When Douthat writes "you’re more likely to get divorced — even if it’s only on the margins — no matter what kind of shape your marriage is in" he means "you're more likely to get divorced, at the margin, at any given level of marital satisfaction." And that may well be right.

It doesn't follow, as Douthat thinks it does, that it's a good idea to make people feign (or have) affairs in order to leave their spouses, instead of having no-fault laws.

Come on Philo3, are you seriously "appalled" that he used "based off of" instead of "based on?" Appalled is what you are when your husband goes out to get the mail without any clothes on, or some shenanigan like that. And "barbaric?" Only some type of hifalutin, ivory-tower professor would describe a simple mix-up in prepositional phrases as "barbaric." Please stop feeding into the melodrama to which our society is becoming addicted.

No offense to all hifalutin, ivory-tower professors of course: even all of them aren't that stuck-up.

Thanks to Patrick_M and everybody else who called out Douthat on "...no matter what kind of shape your marriage is in." Such an asinine assertion. You may think that you're happy, but if you don't insist that others remain unhappy, you're going to regret it.

jfcarro: "..no matter how much you love a person, you're never happy with them all the time..." I'm way older than you or Ezra, but let my offer a bit of advice: Do not enter into marriage under the assumption that that you will go thru ups and downs. Some people don't, and you should strive to be among them.

Here's one reason why it matters what your friends have done.

Frankly, divorce is scary for a lot of people. Many will chose living with the devil they know before facing so much uncertainty -- and even more so if there are kids involved.
On the other hand, if someone you know and trust got through it, then you can begin to see yourself getting through it also.

This certainly is NOT the same as saying that if your friends are unhappy with their spouses, then you are more likely to be unhappy with your spouse.

When I got divorced, I had been, as far as I knew, in a happy marriage. A marriage is a bit like a fighter jet in that it doesn't matter how well you think things are going; if your partner pulls the eject lever, you're done.

That said, while that divorce was the hardest thing I've ever gone through, I'm much happier now than I was before.