GDP grows at 2.4 percent in Q2
Another day, another ugly economic report. Today, we learned that annualized GDP growth over the past quarter was 2.4 percent. Not nothing, but quite a bit lower than the 3.7 percent we saw in the first quarter. More worrying, consumer spending grew at 1.7 percent. Without that, we've not got a lot to grow with. And the stimulus, which supported a lot of the recent growth, is about to drain out of the economy.
And as Neil Irwin notes, the story is actually even worse than that: We also learned that we'd been overestimating recent growth numbers. We'd thought the GDP grew by 0.4 percent in 2008. Now the Commerce Department says it flatlined. All this is worrying on two levels: First, bad economic news is bad economic news. And second, if you're a business deciding whether the economy is strong enough for you to begin taking risks again, there's not a lot here that'll push you off the ledge.
By
Ezra Klein
|
July 30, 2010; 11:08 AM ET
Save & Share:
Previous: What will Congress do about the Bush tax cuts?
Next: Happy 45th birthday, Medicare
Posted by: donchew1 | July 30, 2010 12:08 PM | Report abuse
With Ezra's help, they all can continue to serve special interest in secret while looking like they are on our side, but just don't have the votes.
Way to make the world a better place, Ezra.
Posted by: tlhamzy | July 30, 2010 12:26 PM | Report abuse
"And second, if you're a business deciding whether the economy is strong enough for you to begin taking risks again, there's not a lot here that'll push you off the ledge."
The bright spots in the GDP report were in business equipment/software and residential real estate. Both are likely due to pent up demand. Companies put off buying new PCs for their employees as long as they could. Can you say business refresh? (time to replace your Windows 2000 machines, people) It will be interesting to see if residential real estate growth continues through the end of the year given the expiration of the federal housing tax credit. Only one month into the quarter and it's becoming pretty clear which direction that one is headed.
Posted by: tuber | July 30, 2010 12:28 PM | Report abuse
More news filtered by the journolist.
Just remember as you read, it does not have to be true, it just has to support views the journolist prigs.
Posted by: TECWRITE | July 30, 2010 12:37 PM | Report abuse
ezra said: "quite a bit lower than the 3.7 percent we saw in the first quarter."
it was revised a while back to 2.7%
suggest you check this to see why this was a horrible report:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/revisions-real-gdp-and-pce-far-away.html
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | July 30, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse
I am wondering if halting American Slave Labor would help speed recovery. Here is what I am speaking of:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8289
http://tri-statedefenderonline.com/articlelive/articles/5106/1/BP-uses-prison-labor-tax-breaks-to-clean-up-their-mess/Page1.html
http://www.thenation.com/article/37828/bp-hires-prison-labor-clean-spill-while-coastal-residents-struggle
http://www.cio.com/article/595304/Prison_Labor_Outsourcing_s_Best_Kept_Secret_
http://www.examiner.com/x-8151-Military-Community-Examiner~y2010m6d14-Recalled-military-helmets-manufactured-with-prison-labor
Posted by: WinstonCourt | July 30, 2010 12:43 PM | Report abuse
Journolist left the toilet seat up.
Journolist double-dipped a chip.
Journolist scratched my car and didn't leave a note.
Journolist picked its nose in front of others.
Posted by: lol-lol | July 30, 2010 1:47 PM | Report abuse
Jim, you have this backwards: today's report revised first quarter GDP growth upwards from 2.7% to 3.7%. More to the point though, exactly why does the downward revision of 2008 growth mean or imply anything today? If anything, it makes it much easier to explain why job losses in 2008 and early 2009 were more severe than the original estimates of GDP growth would have suggested via Okun's law. Previously, Dean Baker and others argued that GDI was a more reliable indicator of actual performance (it fell more than the pre-revised GDP in a manner consistent with Okun's law and observed unemployment), but this downward revision more or less eliminates the puzzle. But I really don't see how a more accurate picture of the state of the economy two years ago is going to have any impact on business decision making today.
Posted by: rwclayton7 | July 30, 2010 2:05 PM | Report abuse
"But I really don't see how a more accurate picture of the state of the economy two years ago is going to have any impact on business decision making today."
I can hazard a guess. Companies factor in macroeconomic projections into their own business models. Assume they factored in that x% of GDP growth will affect their sales by y%. With GDP revisions two quarters back, they now factor in the higher GDP growth necessary to generate y% increase in sales. Would it mean any material change in their decision making?
Posted by: tuber | July 30, 2010 2:24 PM | Report abuse
As long as our government continues the reckless spending and unprecedented meddling with businesses, we cannot expect real long term growth.
The Congress and current Administration have put the country on a course of reckless government spending that has mortgaged the future of all Americans especially future generations. The only way to fix this long term structural problem is to create a pro-growth atmosphere for business. To do this we must reduce taxes NOW. How many different taxes does a business or individual pay on a regular basis? We must eliminate number and complexity of all these taxes and reduce the tax burden.
We also need to end the micro-management of business and the economy. Until we GREATLY reduce the tax burden on business and consumers and remove the senseless regulations that accomplish little in relation to the cost they impose, our future is bleak.
REMEMBER IN November...VOTE THEM OUT!!!
Posted by: AngryMobVoter | July 30, 2010 2:37 PM | Report abuse
It would be interesting to break down the 1.8 trillion by companies or sectors. Is a large percentage held by Silicon Valley companies which are virtually debt-free? And certainly not hostile to Obama.
It would also be good to task some economists to come up with a model for a mature capitalist economy (us) that is not so dependent on consumer spending. Cuz the days of running off to buy a flat screen TV once a month are so over.
Posted by: bhmingus | July 31, 2010 11:02 AM | Report abuse
The comments to this entry are closed.













This is not particularly hard to figure out. Our President loaths business and business has little faith in the President. If I was running a business, I would be sitting on cash with little confidence that it would be in my best interest to spend. Particularly under a President who seeks to stick his hand in every producer's pockets. As for consumer spending, not me. The government has virtually bankrupted the country. I need to put away every penny I can in an America that seeks ways to take every penny I make. But isn't it ironic. The very ones whom President Obama so sorely needs to bail out his failed economy are the very ones with whom he's burned his bridges. Good luck with that approach, Mr President. Doesn't sound very promising.