Reconciliation

As Orszag says in his message (at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/blog/10/07/08/Thinking-Long-Term/) "the Affordable Care Act will, unless Congress reverse some of its provisions in the future, reduce the long-term fiscal gap by 2 percent of GDP over the next 75-years."

2% over the next 75 years... unless Congress reverses some provisions. That's almost 0.027% per year... woops, I forgot it's end-loaded and isn't spread over the entire 75 year period.

I thought the budget reconciliation process only allowed measures which reduced the deficit over a 5-year period. So, now that 5-year deficit reduction is a 75-year deficit reduction? Isn't that 15 times what was originally projected? Doesn't that mean that the cost has grown by about 1500% in the first 120 days without any additional action by Congress?? How could the economists and estimators have been so far off??

If the term "change" is defined to include both amendments by Congress and modifications by the Courts, how many budget-affecting acts of Congress signed into law in 1935 and prior years have remained in place, unchanged, until today (75 years later)?

Knowing the probability will help clarify the credibility of Orszag's statement.

Linday Lohan is a 24 year old actress with some life issues but no presumption of any capability for policy analysis.

She is a damn fine actress with some life issues. Who cares if she is a fan of Ayn Rand or of Cato Institute.

On #3...

It is not blaming the victim!

Illinois is increasing state worker pay by 14% when it is facing one of the worst budget shortfalls. 14%! They just got a 7% raise this year, and by next July it will be another 7%.

http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/metro/illinois-state-workers-payraises-20100706

The CBPP bemoans the 'lost jobs', but lets face it jobs are being lost because wages are too high. Services are being cut back, because the stupid unions are okay with letting the ax hit their membership rather than part with a small part of their salary (or for that matter, a small part of their raises).

Illinois is giving back to back 7% raises and then demanding taxpayers (in IL or elsewhere) to pick up the slack? You've got to be kidding me. Deferring 2% of the raise or slightly higher co-pays aren't going to make a difference.

The saddest part is its not just the unions. The Governor is hiking his staff members' salaries by another 11%. Doesn't he read Krugman? There is no inflation. The Governor's staff is a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the state payroll but its a terrible example. Giving the guy in charge of getting the budget in order $24,000 more - a 20% raise - is ridiculous. It's like Obama's deficit commission running out of money. No one will take you seriously unless you have across the board cuts.

I note in this article there will be $1.4 billion in cuts, which makes you wonder how badly services will be cut given the double digit raises.

http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/politics/governor-pat-quinn-staff-raises-20100706

Illinois deserves to go bankrupt.