Research desk is open

Why are politics so depressing, and politicians so uninspiring?

what do you think is the likelihood of the Bush tax cuts just lapsing completely? Do you think they are more likely to just be extended wholesale than dropped wholesale? Same question regarding the estate tax holiday.

I've seen personal, back yard wind power turbines advertised in a variety of places, can an average household eliminate their power consumption by installing something like this paired with some solar power panels on the roof? Is the future in giant wind farms, personal power generation, or a bit of both? What kind of power generation could be built into cities? Windmills on the tops of sky scrapers?

What is the cost to the states of unfunded federal mandates? Break down per state? Even more interesting would be unfunded mandates from the state to the local gov'ts.

@nickthap - because politics is about people. The people who run, the people who cover them, and the people who put them into office. That said, I disagree with the premise. Get involved in your local civic association. Get involved in your county committee. Politics is frustrating, but it is the tool we use to get stuff down. It's how your roads get paved, your zoning issues get resolved, your schools get funded. Frustrating? Yes, but deeply rewarding.

Apropos of John Boehner's lament about the loss of "the America I grew up in" and Mike Tomasky's rejoinder, can you compare:

(1) Top marginal tax rates and effective tax rates for the highest 5% of individuals and corporation in 1964, 1984 and now;

(2) Income distribution by deciles in 1964, 1984 and now;

(3) Union membership in 1964, 1984 and now; and

(4) median wages in 1964, 1984 and now (real not nominal)'

In 1964 was the LBJ landslide and John Boehner was 15; in 1984 Reagan was re-elected by a landslide and John Boehner was 35. I'd see that as his coming of age, with 1964 as the period "he grew up in."

Approximately what percentage of undocumented immigrants actually come across the US/Mexico border?

i've been searching for a good chart showing government spending (at all levels) as percentage of gdp for all countries

Has anyone done a study of where the economy and deficit would be without the stimulus?

Do the figures released today for new unemployment filings include public school teachers whose positions are being eliminated for 2010-2011 due to budget cuts?

Follow up - if not, when should we expect to see that group added to the count of the unemployed?

Thanks.

How long does it take the average non-discretionary immigrant to immigrate legally? How complicated is the process, and how draconian are the limitations, on legal immigration?

I've always been a little confused by the eligibility rules for unemployment benefits, which seem to vary state to state. I'm fortunate to have not dealt with it myself, I've had friends who seemingly worked long enough to qualify, but were denied unemployment when laid off and had to go through a bureaucratic wringer to get answers. What are the general requirements to receive unemployment insurance, and what are some of the more complicated exceptions out there?

Erza:

Thanks much for your work at WP-Policy junkies of all stripes salute you!

I'm wondering if you can recommend any books/magazines worth reading to get a better understanding of the US's long-term budget picture. I've read a couple of books (Shoven's _Putting our House in Order and some Peterson stuff), but I'm wondering if there is something I'm missing. As I tend to get a lot of budget analysis stuff from the left (CBPP and Urban Institute), I'm also wondering if you can recommend anything from the right that is intellectually honest. Thanks!
Peter Bratt

What has been the return on the investment of the TVA and other big energy projects of the Great Depression?

You could do this straight as revenue-cost; but this would neglect the huge engine these projects have been to the economy of the central south and west. Either one would be very interesting.

What has been the return on the investment of the TVA and other big energy projects of the Great Depression?

You could do this straight as revenue-cost; but this would neglect the huge engine these projects have been to the economy of the central south and west. Either one would be very interesting.

Which states extend spousal confidentiality privileges to unmarried domestic partners? That is, in which states is the unmarried domestic partner of a KKK member (for example) allowed to refuse to produce documents and/or answer questions about his or her partner's clandestine activities?

I know there's a link between poverty and obesity (read it in the Post yesterday) and I wonder: Are the lower rates of obesity in Europe due to the lower rates of poverty?

I know there are fewer obese people here in Europe, and I'm pretty sure there's less poverty, though I don't have figures for that. Many like to attribute diet and exercise--lifestyle--for the lower rates of obesity here, but I can't believe that's the whole picture, since I see junk food being gobbled up and there are very few gyms compared to America. So if living in poverty raises the risk of obesity, then it makes sense that there's less obesity in states and countries where there is less poverty.

what is the total amount that has been apportioned by congress to cover the 'doc fix' since the accounting error in 1997?

How much in total, including paying for jail, police work, etc. do we pay each year for the "war on drugs", specifically on marijuana?

can you also include the opportunity cost of the lost contribution to GDP and tax revenue if drugs or marijuana was legalized?

Which Republicans who are now shrieking about deficits voted for the great deficit-increasing measures under Bush? (Medicare drug bill, tax cuts, Iraq supplementals, etc)

And voted against the deficit decreasing measures under Clinton (especially, uh, the deficit reduction act of '93?).

Yesterday Rush Limbaugh was moaning about the fact that only 43% of the stimulus funds have been met. Is this true, and can those who find themselves wishing for a second stimulus package find solace in that remaining 57%? Are those remaining funds particular stimulative?

Why is debt held by the public the correct measure to use when comparing debt/gdp ratio.

or is it the right measure? If so why not gross debt?

How would gross debt and debt held by the public be treated differently in a default situation?

Kevin_Willis thinks:

"... there is no evidence that indefinite extension of unemployment benefits has much of an economically stimulative effect, that I know of."

What does the Research Desk have to say on this subject?

Since they wheeled Senator Byrd into the senate chamber today, can't they take a vote on the jobs bill now? is there a rule that says a senator has to be alive to vote or just present? He could be the 60th vote with a little help from his aides.

I've wondered for a while about how well Medicaid works state by state. More specifically, I know that Medicaid in Illiois is ridiculous in that it pays providers late and with a paper check. Providers in Illinois are pretty happy to deal with Medicare but avoid Medicaid as much as possible. I know that Medicaid runs better in other states, perhaps better in red states than blue ones based on conversations I've had.

I thought that Medicaid may be bad in Illinois because its corrupt, the state of Blago and George Ryan. However,The Daily Beast recently ranked Illinois as one of the least corrupt states:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-05-11/the-most-corrupt-states/
I also thought it might be a result of the domination by Republican governors in last half of the twentieth century.

In any case, I've gotten the impression from people that red states have made Medicaid work better than blue states; and the fact that Illinois is so blue makes me think that its Medicaid administration should be better than it does. What light can you shed on this?

1) mimikatz question is great and timely, I vote for that one

2) After you answer that, I would like you to consider the following query:

a) Can you give a brief history of why the age for receiving full Social Security benefits was originally set at 65?
b)What is the current retirement age (age you can get full govt funded retirement benefits) in the following countries: Canada, Great Britain, Netherlands, Ireland, France, Germany, Spain, Italy?

The reason I am asking is that raising the age for full SS benefits is always cited as something that 'has to be done' because of increased life expectancy. However, though life expectancy AT BIRTH has increased substantially since the program was created (about 14 years long for males and 15 for females), the increase in life expectancy AT RETIREMENT is much more modest (4 years for males, 5 for females) and two years of that has already been 'recaptured' through the increase in the full benefits age to 67. So people are not spending vastly longer amounts of time receiving benefits than they were when the program was created, the 'problem' is that more people are living to the age where they will receive benefits, which is a different issue and one which is not really a justification for increasing the retirement age. I expect you don't spend much time working with folks over age 67, but I have, and my observation is that there is a significant decline in what I would call 'cognitive flexibility' (ability to understand and adapt to new information or conditions) beginning in the early 60's, and I think a shift towards forcing people to work longer on an across the board basis would result in a decline in overall productivity and adaptability of the work force. (For the best example I can think of, see the U.S. Senate!)

Can reconciliation be used for aid to the states, saving teacher jobs, or a jobs bill?
If so, why isn't this being discussed? It would help rally the Democratic base.

In the Debbie Stabenow comments, Lee_A_Arnold said: "Meanwhile the last report I saw was that the Bush Tax Cuts haven't even paid for themselves in extra increased revenue. Is this still true?"

I'm sure the Bush tax cuts haven't paid for themselves in extra revenue.

However, this made me wonder - is there any evidence how, and to what degree, the tax cuts helped America and Americans? Is there any evidence it had a stimulative effect, and if so, how strong was it?

Given that there's now talk of letting the Bush tax cuts expire, I'd be interested to see evidence about what kind of effect they had, before coming to a conclusion on how I feel about that.

Dylan: Research by Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro suggest that austerity is more stimulative than spending, and, in Barro's case, the alleged multiplier of 1.5 is exaggerated (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574440723298786310.html). How conclusive/accepted are their respective works on this? Are there any studies that cast serious doubt on their findings?

I want to know where pharmaceutical companies and medical supply/technology companies make their money. People say the US subsidizes healthcare R&D around the planet. Is this really true? how much from where?

Can you take a look at a Social Security 'rescue plan' proposed by some folks over at the AngryBear blog as an alternative to kill off the system by (once again) raising the retirement age and/or means testing the program.

The link can be found in the posting on the CBO scoring Social Security, http://www.angrybearblog.com/2010/07/cbo-scores-social-security-policy.html#more ) which is worth reading for commentary on CBO and Social Security scoring (The also recommend that everyone read the CBO's 53 page pdf description of how Social security actually works)

The Northwest Plan can be found here, http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/05/northwest-plan-real-fix-for-social.html

The basic description is:

"[The CBO table] pretty much validates the Northwest Plan for a Real Social Security Fix. While no option matches it exactly, option 2 is very close and in line with ... to phase in a 2% increase by 0.1% per year, 0.05% each for employee and employer, for 20 years and the entire [CBO documented funding gap] 0.6% gap is accounted for."

In the endless debate about possible sources of gov't revenue, we never see a chart clearly showing where the money is. If we put a tax of 10% on all income above $1million, what is the total we would be taking 10% of? How much income is there above $500K? Above $1M? Above $10M? etc.

Thus, I would like to see a graph showing, on the x axis, income level; and on the y axis, the total amount of personal income that is *above* that level. Thus, if you put a 10% surtax on all income above $1million, you would get 10% of what's on the y axis at x=$1million. This would make it much much more easy to intelligently discuss the effects of different proposed taxes and tax policies. And obviously this should include capital gains, since that's where most of the high-end income is.

Nice to do something similar for corporate income too.

I would like to have some sort of breakdown of the source of the current deficit -- how much is from the Bush tax cuts, drug program, etc? How much from Obama policies -- stimulus package, auto bailout, etc? How much from the recession? Cable news make it sound like Obama's spending is out of control and the main reason for the deficit, and that doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but I would like to see the numbers.