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Political scientists forecast doom for Democrats

Mark Blumenthal does something I've been meaning to do and surveys some of the models that political scientists are using to predict the outcome of the 2010 midterm election. Of the five he looks at, fully three project that Republicans will take control of the House. Right now, the models that weight the economy more heavily are projecting a large loss for the Democrats, while the models that include voter preferences are predicting a huge loss for the Democrats. That is to say, Democrats look likely to lose even more seats than the economic fundamentals would suggest.

By Ezra Klein  |  September 7, 2010; 4:04 PM ET
Categories:  Political Science  
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Comments

the only bright spots today, are on the google logo.

Posted by: jkaren | September 7, 2010 4:48 PM | Report abuse

None of this is too surprising.

The issue he was elected on was the economy. Dems have done little on the economy. The stimulus was squandered on union jobs and teachers and didn't stimulate anything.

Dems spent a whole year on healthcare which no one asked for and no one wanted.

Between that and the lack of promised transparency and the hiring of radicals such as Van Jones (commie), Mark Lloyd (commie sympathizer) and Anita Dunn (Loves Mao), the Democrats are now *MYSTIFIED* as to why they might lose BIG!

Not too hard to figure.

Posted by: WrongfulDeath | September 7, 2010 4:58 PM | Report abuse

Ezra,

Please do not take the Democrat's impending loss so hard. You and your Journolist pals did your best to portray the job destroying policies of this administration in a positive light. With your blog posts and pretty graphs, no one could say you did not try.

You seem to enjoy cooking. Maybe your writing skills could be put to better use as a restaurant reviewer. You could form a secret journolist for food critics. I am sure your fans, such as jkaren, would eat whatever food you recommended.

Posted by: cummije5 | September 7, 2010 8:35 PM | Report abuse

I am very disappointed in most peoples memory and understanding of the economy and who really got us here. It was the drill baby drill, get rid of the oversight, let the markets determine the supply and demand. Here we are today, after eight years of the GOP leadership, and only two years of the Dems to sort out the inheirited, damn near bankruptcy legacy? Shame on the spin meisters.

But Obama missed his biggest opportunity to turn the economy, while buried under proping up Wall Street and the banks. He should have pulled a JFK, that by the end of this decade, the US would be energy independent, no longer dependent upon foreign imported oil, no longer dependent upon borrowing from foreign nations to fund our debt, that we become a nation of net exporters, earning a trade surplus, no longer earning a trade deficit. Secured by a long term source of domestic energy supply and production that will propell the nation into the next century.

Don't laugh, it was the $4.00+/gal. of gasoline that triggered the meltdown and the financial crisis, along with poor personal financial management.

Posted by: JoeValues | September 7, 2010 9:14 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Ezra for cheering me up. Lets all come together to hope and pray this holds true come election day.

Posted by: FastEddieO007 | September 7, 2010 9:48 PM | Report abuse

The best news is that soon (hopefully) we'll get past the "generic ballot"polling and see how the real world races break out.

Polling in my own state shows incumbents in tighter races than they'd like, but still with leads that should stick.

Posted by: Patrick_M | September 8, 2010 2:18 AM | Report abuse

Are you looking to file for bankruptcy? Compare your bankruptcy options and information http://bit.ly/9fvqX3

Posted by: georgedillon08 | September 8, 2010 2:35 AM | Report abuse

There will be massive voter fraud by democrats this year. Illinois will be the epicenter of it. That will help in close races, and we have an AG (and nothing has been heard from him for awhile) who will turn a blind eye to it.

Posted by: truck1 | September 8, 2010 6:15 AM | Report abuse

Why is Tim Kaine getting a free pass? The DNC is doing a terrible job and I do not hear anyone calling for his head. The DNC has fallen in love with its email campaigns preaching to the converted to raise money. Older, independent swing voters do not receive these emails and those of us who do I suspect are deleting them before reading as I do every morning. The DNC needs to develop clear messages backed by easy to understand and verify factual references, and then to get these messages into the hands of their best communicators (like Sherrod Brown, for example). Everyone is tired of the Harry and Nancy show.

Someone call the DNC, wake up Tim Kaine, and ask him to leave.

Posted by: hermancm | September 8, 2010 9:42 AM | Report abuse

There is a piece called "Laughed At by Time" in the WSJ. I thought of you. The author quotes Mr. Halperin, of Time and his not to subtle promise, in his columns at Time, to marshal media support for Democrats and ridicule and denigration of Republicans going into the Fall elections. "Democrats will be joined in the fray by much of the press. For Republicans, this will seem like familiar ground, since generations of conservatives have complained that the so-called mainstream media have been biased against them. Well, get ready, Republicans, for déjà vu all over again. The coverage through November likely will highlight the most extreme attacks on the President and his law and spotlight stories of real Americans whose lives have been improved by access to health care." I think your JournoList, which highlighted the concerted action of the snide media (soooo superior to all those "F**king NASCAR retards") actually made it sort of impossible to assume the same cheerleader role. Well, the public will have forgotten by 2012, I suppose. Sigh. You'll still be insufferably supercilious though, even then.

Posted by: dante99654 | September 10, 2010 2:36 AM | Report abuse

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