Network News

X My Profile
View More Activity
Posted at 2:04 PM ET, 02/ 3/2011

Are Obama's poll numbers dissuading challengers?

By Ezra Klein

A week ago, I wrote that Obama's peculiarly high poll numbers didn't mean much for how he'd be polling in late-2012, but they might mean a lot for whom he'll be facing:

That Obama's poll numbers looking surprisingly strong at a moment when they should be looking fairly weak might push some of the stronger candidates who are on the fence about running in 2012 -- Chris Christie, say, or John Thune -- to hold off until 2016. And a weaker field is always good for the incumbent.

Thune, it turns out, was a good example to use.

By Ezra Klein  | February 3, 2011; 2:04 PM ET
 
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Getting specific about discretionary cuts
Next: Big money, small issues

Comments

Isn't this double counting? If history shows that a Presidential midterm approval rating has no impact on his reelection chances, then it doesn't really make sense to talk about his midterm ratings dissuading strong challengers since that will already be accounted for in the studies on reelection. If midterm ratings don't affect his reelection chances, then the effect of his midterm ratings on challengers shouldn't matter either.

Posted by: DDAWD | February 3, 2011 4:02 PM | Report abuse

Obama's poll numbers are not "peculiarly high" at all as Mr. Klein claims.In fact the little bump Obama got after his Tucson speech, has all but evaporated. And he got no bump at all from his State of the Union address. He is down to 46% again today - and sinking.

Posted by: Tommypie | February 4, 2011 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Ask W if he would have preferred 46% over his 22%. Gee, that's 100% better and you can tell it all over the country!!

Posted by: nettie526 | February 6, 2011 9:04 AM | Report abuse

Post a Comment

We encourage users to analyze, comment on and even challenge washingtonpost.com's articles, blogs, reviews and multimedia features.

User reviews and comments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. Finally, we will take steps to block users who violate any of our posting standards, terms of use or privacy policies or any other policies governing this site. Please review the full rules governing commentaries and discussions.




characters remaining

 
 
RSS Feed
Subscribe to The Post

© 2011 The Washington Post Company