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Posted at 12:20 PM ET, 01/25/2008

The GOP debate in Florida

By Michael Dobbs


GOP debate in Florida, Jan. 24

Last night's GOP debate from Boca Raton, Florida, was a generally civil affair. The candidates avoided challenging each other's records directly, and did not get involved in factual disputes. Nevertheless, they still made a number of questionable statements, particularly on foreign policy. A sampler:


Paul's trillion dollars

RON PAUL: We're spending nearly a trillion dollars a year overseas maintaining this empire.

It is true that the U.S. spends a lot of money overseas, and the costs of the war on terrorism, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, have been much higher than predicted by the Bush administration. Even so, the Texas congressman is widely off base with his "trillion dollar" estimate for the "costs of empire."

According to the latest analysis from the Congressional Budget Office, total appropriations for Iraq, Afghanistan, and the war on terrorism, came to $171 billion last year, up from $120 billion in 2006. The projected figure this year is $88 billion. The Bush administration has requested $481 billion for the Department of Defense for fiscal year 2008. Much of this money would be spent even if the U.S. was not fighting any wars overseas: Paul has never said that he wants to abolish the military altogether.

Other overseas expenditures (or "empire costs" to use Paul's terminology) are relatively modest by comparison. The entire foreign aid budget is around $22 billion, the State Department costs around $6 billion a year, and the United Nations eats up around $2 billion. See this breakdown.

Ron Paul's figures do not add up. He has not explained where he gets his $1 trillion estimate from for the "costs of empire." I suspect he chose it because it is a nice round number.


Huckabee and the missing WMD

MIKE HUCKABEE: Now, everybody can look back and say, "Oh, well, we didn't find the weapons." [Referring to weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.] It doesn't mean they weren't there. Just because you didn't find every Easter egg didn't mean that it wasn't planted.

It's practically impossible to prove a negative, but exhaustive U.S. investigations into the WMD controversy concluded that Saddam Hussein had destroyed all his stocks of chemical and biological weapons long before the 2003 invasion. The chief U.S. investigator, Charles Duelfer, said that the Bush administration was "almost all wrong" on Iraq in Congressional testimony in 2004. Duelfer went on to say that Hussein hoped someday to resume a chemical weapons effort after United Nations sanctions ended, but had no stocks and had not researched making the weapons for a dozen years.

After the debate, Huckabee was asked by Chris Matthews of MSNBC to explain what might have happened to the WMD that eluded the U.S. inspection effort. He replied that some weapons could have been smuggled out of the country to Jordan, a close U.S. ally in the war on terrorism. He failed to provide any evidence to bolster this line of speculation. Of course, it is also possible that the Iraqi WMD ended up in Arkansas while Huckabee was governor, and are hidden somewhere in the vicinity of Little Rock. I challenge the governor to prove the contrary.

Even President Bush disagrees with Huckabee on the "Did Iraq have secret stocks of WMD?" question. Here is an extract from a Bush press conference in August 2006:

Now, look, part of the reason we went into Iraq was -- the main reason we went into Iraq at the time was we thought he had weapons of mass destruction. It turns out he didn't, but he had the capacity to make weapons of mass destruction.


Rudy and the Peace Dividend

RUDY GIULIANI: I think we should increase the size of our military substantially to overcome the damage that Bill Clinton did with the peace dividend....He cut the military between 25 and 30 percent. We've never redone or did up -- made up for that damage.

The Giuliani campaign sent along a slew of statistics to support the mayor's claim. According to their stats, which were taken from the Pentagon website, there were 1,793,411 active-duty personnel in October 1992, and 1,372,352 at the end of 2000, shortly before Clinton left office. (We are trying to obtain a more precise figure for January 1993, when Clinton actually took office.) That represents a 23 percent reduction in the size of the military during the Clinton years, by the Giuliani campaign calculations.

That is less than 25-30 percent. More significantly, however, Giuliani (and other Republican candidates) typically omit any mention of the fact that the cuts in the size of the military began during the presidency of George H.W. Bush. It was Bush senior, and his defense secretary Dick Cheney, who first talked about the "peace dividend" accruing to the United States following the end of the Cold War. The planning for the defense cuts of the early 90s were put in motion by a Republican administration, with bipartisan Congressional support. The size of the armed forces dropped by about 300,000 between 1990 and 1993, a reduction of around 15 percent.


McCain waves a red flag

JOHN MCCAIN: If we do what Senator Clinton said that she wanted to do the night before last, and that's wave the white flag of surrender and set a date for withdrawal, then we will have expenses, my friends, in American blood and treasure, because al-Qaeda will then have won.

It is true that Hillary Clinton has promised to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq within 60 days of her inauguration as president--and that there are big differences between the Democrats and the Republicans on whether to wind up the war. On the other hand, Clinton has not set a date for full withdrawal from the country, and refused to say that all U.S. troops will be out of Iraq by the end of her second term. She has specifically said that some combat troops will have to remain behind to fight al-Qaeda.

The closest Clinton came to establishing a withdrawal date was during the Democratic debate from Myrtle Beach, S.C., on January 21. This is what she said:

We will start withdrawing within 60 days. We will move as carefully and responsibly as we can, one to two brigades a month, I believe, and we'll have nearly all the troops out by the end of the year, I hope.

Note the usual caveats such as "as carefully and responsibly as we can," "I believe," and "I hope." Translation from candidate-speak: I will do what I can, but it's not a firm promise.


Straight Talk on Economics?

TIM RUSSERT: You have said repeatedly, quote, I know a lot less about economics than I do about military or foreign policy issues. I need to be educated. is it a problem for the campaign that the economy is the most important issue, one by your own acknowledgment you're not well versed on.

JOHN MCCAIN: I don't know where you got that quote from. I'm very well versed in economics. I was there at the Reagan revolution.

The Romney campaign helpfully came up with the following quotes to jog McCain's memory:

"The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should," McCain said. "I've got Greenspan's book." --Boston Globe, Dec. 12, 2007.
"I'm going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated." --Stephen Moore, "Reform, Reform, Reform," OpinionJournal.com, 11/26/05

Straight talk can cause you problems, sometimes.


McCain and the Exit Polls

JOHN MCCAIN:Look, I won the majority of Republican vote in both New Hampshire and South Carolina.

This one is a considerable stretch by McCain. According to exit poll data assembled by my colleague Chris Cillizza, of the Fix, Mccain lost the Republican vote in New Hampshire by 34 to 35 per cent. His winning margin came from winning independents by 13 points.

In South Carolina, McCain lost Republicans by a statistically insignificant margin, but carried independents by a massive 42 percent to 25 percent margin -- ensuring his narrow three-point victory.


The Pinocchio Test


How many Pinocchios do you think these errors/omissions/exaggerations are worth? Did you spot any other howlers from last night's debate?


By Michael Dobbs  | January 25, 2008; 12:20 PM ET
Categories:  Candidate Record, Candidate Watch, Iraq, Verdict Pending, War on Terror  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Obama and Health Care
Next: McCain attacks Romney on Iraq

Comments

I think Ron Paul may have been referring to other troops stationed overseas as well, like in Korea and Europe and Okinawa, etc, in coming up to his 1 trillion dollar figure. Don't know whether it is in fact that but i think he was speaking to all troops stationed overseas, not just Iraq and Afghanistan.

Posted by: Derek | January 25, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Ron Paul's $1 trillion figure sounds like the commonly quoted figure for the amount that "has been spent in Iraq" which includes all funding for the war in Afghanistan and the time period from 2001 to a future year, maybe 2010. Two wars over many years, not one year of one war. Dr. Paul could never survive errors like that if he were viable. Three pinocchios at a minimum would be good.

Rudy may have meant forces declined by an amount equal to 25-30% of TODAY's force level. Even if he meant 1993's level, 23% is at least close to the 25-30 range. And as I've told the Fact Checker before, a trend occurring under a predecessor is irrelevant. Bush 41's military cuts do not make a claim about Clinton's cute any more or any less factual. One pinocchio is adequate.

Huckabee's WMD claims are a far cry from whoppers, too. The only wacky thing he mentioned was Jordan. Why not Syria? The Easter Egg metaphor was poor on style points - the usual for Huckabee, inserting levity in a place where serious discussion belongs. Yet, he mentioned we do KNOW they ONCE had WMDs so it's not a question of whether Iraq had them. The CIA considers the two (of a possible) four trailers found as "inconclusive" on whether they were actually mobile weapons labs, after two of three review teams deemed them suitable for that purpose. One pinocchio for the left field reference to Jordan is fair.

McCain does still need to be educated about economics, as do all candidates for President every year. Economic experts don't stump well and learn not to run. The fact that McCain forgot about his old quote (he didn't deny having said it), and wants to be considered equally or better versed on economics than the other candidates is not much of a distortion. All candidates in all election years will imply they know economics better than they really do, and downplay the fact that they have advisors. One pinocchio.

Posted by: The Angry One | January 25, 2008 3:58 PM | Report abuse

I think you typed the wrong state in the McCain-and-the-exit-polls analysis. The first paragraph should refer to New Hampshire, not Massachusetts.

Posted by: Steve | January 25, 2008 4:09 PM | Report abuse

How did McCain lose the Republican vote in Massachusetts?

Posted by: mshimazu | January 25, 2008 4:11 PM | Report abuse

Sorry...that was a typo. It's New Hampshire, of course.

Posted by: The Fact Checker | January 25, 2008 4:25 PM | Report abuse

Republican debate in Florida

Who Won the MSNBC Republican Debate in Florida?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1629


.

Posted by: Jeff | January 25, 2008 4:39 PM | Report abuse

Nice job of picking nits. It may be accurate but does it drive the debate? Which candidates other than Governor Huckabee are discussing infrastructure repair? The others will wait for the bridges to fall first.
It reminds me when the Governor proposed the Fair Tax and the fact checkers challenged the math there as well. It's not the math, it's the vision.

Posted by: adirondackal | January 25, 2008 5:18 PM | Report abuse

This article was a waste of someone's time and energy. Agreeing with most of the previous comments here, I think that most of the quotes listed regarding exact statistics, are referring to a candidate's estimations. No one is going to listen to a politician spouting off exact numbers; if nothing else, it bores the audience, and it's not relevant to voters. Also, the "correction" that was made about John McCain winning the New Hampshire primary from the Independents, does not disprove what he said anyway. I believe it is called the REPUBLICAN primary, not the independent primary.

Posted by: Leah | January 25, 2008 5:45 PM | Report abuse

Re: Huckabee's Big Road Plans

I don't understand the math here. $1,000,000 per lane mile multiplied by 3,500 mile-lanes of highway makes $3.5 billion ($3,500,000,000), not $350 billion ($350,000,000,000), as the Fact Checker suggests above.

Posted by: Willem | January 25, 2008 7:38 PM | Report abuse

I'm undecided, but found this great article called "The Convenience of Civility" on the BlogZine SAVAGE POLITICS.

www.SAVAGEPOLITICS.com

It takes a great look at each of the GOP Candidates.

Here is an excerpt:
"Last night's MSNBC Republican Candidates Debate was an important one for the GOP Presidential Candidates because it was aired from Florida, an immense State from which many of these candidate's continued tenure depends upon. The expectations ran high, when you considered the latest Democratic Candidates Debate was headlined with personal attacks and other assorted political squabble that many claim overrode the serious discourse of issues. It had thus been expected of the Republicans to elevate their own profile by engaging in some fighting of their own, giving the Media Networks something interesting to talk about the next day. Unfortunately for them, from the very beginning of the debate, the mood was calm and composed, thanks in part to the absence of Fred Thompson from the race, a candidate known for his overwhelming boorishness but prone to aggressive attacks against his opponents. In fact, it was the utter civility and mature tone of the debate which truly stood out of the whole night, a fact attributed by many pundits to the Republican intention of distinguishing themselves from the opposing party's antics. This tranquility in the discussions allowed for a comprehensive debate on current political and economic problems affecting our Country. What did each candidate bring to the discussion which finally highlighted their individual personalities?..." Find the rest of the article at www.SAVAGEPOLITICS.com

Posted by: elsylee28 | January 25, 2008 8:00 PM | Report abuse

You raise a good point, Willem. I have taken it down while I rethink the math.

Posted by: The Fact Checker | January 25, 2008 9:41 PM | Report abuse

It is time for the Republican voters in the Sunshine State to help their party select the most electable Republican candidate for President of the United States in the General election. Because of our present difficulties, both domestic and abroad that we and our country face, it is imperative that our party retain the White House in the General Election. With out a Republican President, the values that our great party holds in high esteem, will be imperiled by the unchecked power of a Democrat majority in the House and Senate. There are more voters registered as Democrats than Republicans in our nation; there fore, for any Republican Presidential Candidate to be elected, they must be able to effectively win a majority of the Independents that vote. One candidate has shown himself to be the most able to win those voters. To become President, a Republican must be able to win in the south and they must be able to win in Florida. The ideal candidate should also be able to capture the votes of moderate Democrats in a general election. It is vital for our party to have a candidate who can retain the 55% of the Hispanic vote that our current President won in the last general election. Selecting a candidate that chooses to demogauge, instead of leading on the immigration issue, will not retain 55% of the Hispanic vote. There is one Republican running for President who has shown the ability to deliver more than just the votes of our party members that it will take for us to win in November. There is only one man running for President who has consistently out polled, head to head, all of the Democrats left in the race. There is only one person running for President, whom the Democrats fear in the General Election. That one candidate who can win the White House for our party, in the November General Election is Senator John McCain. The only thing left to find out is if John McCain can win in Florida that is the decision of the Republican voters of Florida. The voters in Florida have determined who has become President in the last 2 general elections. Republicans in the Sunshine state have an historic opportunity to actually pick the eventual President if they prove to the nation that Senator McCain can win in Florida. Florida your time is now, your nation is waiting, your voice is more important than any other, at this time. Choose greatness, choose wisely, make our country proud, and choose Senator McCain.

Posted by: charles ellis | January 25, 2008 10:30 PM | Report abuse

Hey all,

Has everyone heard the sizzling evening underground news about Mike Huckabee tonight?

Mike Huckabee picked his Vice President running mate and a few top ranking cabinet members today.

Huge Huge Huge news!! I mean Huge!!

Wall Street is buzzing with the latest news, stocks are going to surge up for sure with this positive upbeat economic news.

This is going knock the other candidates off their feet for sure. Wow, I'm still shocked, not only is this going to be a huge economic stimulus jolt for stocks to surge up but Iran and terrorists organizations are going to be shaking their knees and sweating when they here the news too.

I mean this is a super huge jolt for his economic and defense team. Big Big Huge news!

You are going to have to wait to hear the news as it is timed sensitive news, wish I can release it, but can't.

News media outlets are going to be buzzing around the world with this sizzling news. Mike Huckabee really likes pulling out the "Shock and Awe" right at the last minute.

Posted by: Tony | January 25, 2008 11:48 PM | Report abuse

And Romney was the only one that came out with all clean facts. He is amazing. He is the most electable of all of them. How many key republicans would sit out the race if McCain were the nomination. We would lose, just because he doesn't have the support of the Republican. He is a Democrat in Republican's clothing. I am pleased with his view that the war must be won, but everything else, he is embellishing his record on. He is the opposite of straight talk. He is the one who says what he knows Republicans want to hear. Mitt is the one who can rally the troops!

Posted by: niqueie | January 26, 2008 1:22 AM | Report abuse

I'm betting Paul's $1 trillion figure came from an article posted the day before the debate by Chalmers Johnson, author of "Blowback" and two follow-up books exploring U.S. foreign policy. Paul has cited him favorably in the past. See Johnson's budget breakdown at:

http://www.antiwar.com/engelhardt/?articleid=12248

Take the defense budget, the "supplementals," Homeland Security, veterans' care, the Energy Department's nuke budget, and so on... and yes, the figure comes out to about $1.1 trillion. Now... some of that undoubtedly comes under Paul's definition of legitimate national defense, and I don't know how much that is. But a total cost of $1 trillion is entirely credible.

Posted by: DG | January 26, 2008 1:30 PM | Report abuse

For McCain to say Al Qaeda will have won, if, in 2009, we pull out of Iraq, is no mere howler. It's a deadly serious lie that has kept us in Iraq, effectively recruiting terrorists for Al Qaeda, while its supreme leader and founder, OBL, is holed up in a far away country. Four Pinocchios.

Posted by: jhbyer | January 27, 2008 1:34 AM | Report abuse

A neat, very impressive fact is that "The Fact Checker" has checked in on this thread and posted twice tonight. Thanks, Fact Checker.

Posted by: jhbyer | January 27, 2008 11:31 AM | Report abuse

Ron Paul also believes in an invisible highway and an imagined currency, so you can figure him if his math is bad.

Posted by: info | January 27, 2008 4:58 PM | Report abuse

It appears that all that most news commentators choose to find as "newsworthy" are the contentious words between candidates and their surrogates. With that virtually absent for this Republican political debate, they have resorted to possible inconsistencies with past statements heavily exaggerated. We voters should focus clearly on what each candidate proposed to meet the issues that face us today and consider if it is credible and makes sense. For Republicans, it should have been abundantly clear from listening to the content of this Florida Primary debate that Mitt Romney was the person most in step with what is required to lead this country most effectively, particularly with the economy. He also appears to have the best grasp of what needs to be done to address the issues of Social Security. This country will need such a leader who is willing to stand up to Washington and inspire the changes that must be made to address the problems of our time. The voters of Florida have a unique opportunity to help this needed change become possible.

Posted by: robert | January 27, 2008 5:16 PM | Report abuse

McCain Considers Setting Benchmarks for Iraqis

http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/byauthor/166271

Posted by: jwarren | January 29, 2008 3:09 AM | Report abuse

Think about this if you will.
What is round and white and you sit on it atleast once a day & it's in The White House? A $400.00 toilet seat!
did you pay for this?

Posted by: Carl | January 29, 2008 6:06 PM | Report abuse

Well, well, what do we see ? All important liemericans together. Anything to explain about building 7 ladies and gentlemen ? Anything to say about using 9 barrels and finding only 1 new barrel ? Keepin up the good news then, cheerio. I whish PRESIDENT OBAMA a lot of wisdom.

Posted by: jwholtkamp | January 30, 2008 6:39 AM | Report abuse

Well, well, what do we see ? All important liemericans together. Anything to explain about building 7 ladies and gentlemen ? Anything to say about using 9 barrels and finding only 1 new barrel ? Keepin up the good news then, cheerio. I whish PRESIDENT OBAMA a lot of wisdom.

Posted by: jwholtkamp | January 30, 2008 6:41 AM | Report abuse

For the moment all I really want is for someone to provide an exact reference to the article in which Romney talked about not wanting to have the bad guys waiting in the weeds for us to leave Iraq or whatever the quote was. It really frosts me that we consuming so much time over an issue and no one bothers to give the rest of us the exact reference so we can judge for ourselves. If IT HAS already been provided I apologize in advance.

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