The Attack in Yemen

By Robert Bateman

Today we get news that the American Embassy in Sanaa, Yemen, was again attacked. My immediate feeling on this, sad as it might be, was not outrage, but curiosity. Specifically, I'm curious as to why we have not seen many more attacks like this on our embassies.

Now don't get me wrong, I do not want to see any more attacks. It just strikes me as interesting that despite the ease with which one can stage an attack (particularly an unsuccessful one), there have only been a few dozen such in the past decade. Of course, it should be noted that quite a large percentage of that total has occurred in Yemen.

My own lack of knowledge about Yemen is not just significant, it is a yawning deep pit of ignorance. I am therefore curious for the opinions of those who know more of the people, culture, and nature of Yemen. For my own part I strongly recommend the book 'Yemen, The Unknown Arabia' by Tim Mackintosh-Smith. It is, bluntly, a travel book. But the salient difference is that it is a travel book by a British writer. If there is one area in which the Brits wipe the floor with us Americans it is in the genre of travel writing. Hell, even our best and most widely-published travel writer, Bill Bryson, spent the first 20 years of his writing career in England, so we can barely even claim him as an American product either.

The question, therefore, is in two parts. Why have there been so few attacks on American Embassies, compared to the level of rage we believe exists? And why have so many of those attacks occurred in Yemen? There are plenty of opinions out there already. I have my own opinions on this, but as I said, they are lightly informed. Let's hash this out in the comments. Priority to people who know Yemen.

By washingtonpost.com |  September 17, 2008; 9:42 AM ET
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Comments

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Somebody waht to tell me what the h*ll this moron knows about anythings, let alones anbout Yemin?

Posted by: MixLite | September 17, 2008 1:38 PM

MixLite, ouch. I've given Bateman some sh*t, but that's rough. Batemans' admitted ignorance, I think, highlights a complete lack of knowledge in America generally about Yemen. It's almost a complete unknown here. I only learned a few weeks ago how beautiful the landscape could be when I saw photos taken by a lawyer for a Guantanamo detainee.


As for the attacks on embassies, none of the 3 articles you (Bateman) cited discuss that issue at all. They simply mention that Al Qaeda is in Yemen.

Personally, I suspect you don't see many attacks on embassies because they are hardened, yet meaningless, targets. Local resentment or even rage won't be enough. As this attack showed, you need a large and well-trained/well-armed cell to have a chance. Anyone with that kind of resources can think bigger than embassies.

Also I wonder if Bin Laden's attack on the African embassies in the 90's (which killed a few Americans and hundreds of Africans, and which, according to reports at the time, seriously hurt Bin Laden's popularity) showed the uselessness of such a tactic.

As for why Yemen? Your articles (3 articles from the last 5 years) all claim that Al Qaeda is strong there. Still, I'm suspicious. Note, for instance, the demands "Al Qaeda" made according to one of your articles:

"The statement made four demands on the government: release al-Qaeda members in prison; lift restrictions on travel to Iraq; stop cooperating with the enemies of Islam, particularly the United States and its allies; and announce a return to Sharia law (News Yemen, July 2)."

3 of the 4 are issues internal to Yemen. The 4th, travel to Iraq, is internationalism, but it has been well documented that even local jihadis send fighters to Iraq (and elsewhere) to train them for when they return home.

Yemen has a large and long standing internal tension/tribal resistance/insurgency of which Al Qaeda is only a small part. It also has a very old and complex relation with Saudi Arabia (the Saudi view Yemen as something between hillbillies and wild west cowboys). So the Yemeni attacks on American interests are really a very small part of a much large conflict. The US and Saudi Al Qaeda try to get involved in Yemen for their own interests, but neither is controlling the pace of events.

To be honest, I'm not sure I'd care if Yemen gave into "Al Qaeda's" demands and stopped cooperating with the US. That is one of the many internal fights in the world that I'm not fully convinced we need to be part of, but which we are without and discussion among the American people.

Posted by: Bill | September 17, 2008 2:43 PM

BILL: Frankly, I am not sure I am convinced of your assessment. As I read it, your sole source of information/knowledge about Yemen is the few articles to which I linked. Please excuse me if this is not correct. But this does not seem to be an "expert" opinion.

Merci.

Posted by: Bob Bateman | September 17, 2008 5:11 PM

I never claimed expertise (nor wit, nor charm, nor comedic timing). Nonetheless, I posted my opinion and my reasons for it. I had no particular reason to expect you (nor anyone else) to agree with it, but I wonder if simply saying that I am wrong advances my (or anyone else's) understanding much.

Posted by: Bill | September 17, 2008 5:27 PM

I didn't say you were "simply wrong." I only noted that your assessment had not convinced me, and I saw no new evidence therein to educate us. There's a diff, eh? Sorry if you were offended.

Posted by: Bob Bateman | September 17, 2008 6:12 PM

Prof. B,

Why Yemen you say? It's a country with all of Saudi Arabia's problems, and none of its money to solve them. But more than that, it is a country still coming to terms with a bad civil war; a government that must placate militant rural tribesman to ensure its own survival (70% of the population lives outside of cities [http://yementimes.com/article.shtml?i=1141&p=business&a=1]; and a military which proves its ineffectiveness each time it attempts to face down the ongoing Houthi rebellion.

Its a country that has enough of a functioning state for Al-Qaeda and the Houthis to co-opt so that they may thrive, but not enough of a military for them to fear. Throw in a lot of khat and a veritable arms bazaar too.

Simply put, its easy for the bad guys to operate there. They can get the equipment they need. The population is relatively supportive (particularly in the rural areas ... remember 70% of them are out there ...). The government's jails continually prove their ineffectiveness. Why not Yemen?

Posted by: MilOps Rocked | September 17, 2008 9:24 PM

Col. Bateman,

Some good background information on Yemen can be found here

http://britains-smallwars.com/Aden/index.html

Also, Ken Connor's book Ghost Force has a very informative chapter on Aden/Yemen.

http://www.amazon.com/Ghost-Force-Cassell-Military-Paperbacks/dp/0304363677/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1221706349&sr=1-3

Jonathan Walker's book is very highly recommended: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1862272255/ref=sr_11_1/102-7863017-6071317?_encoding=UTF8

There is a new book out about the Stasi which talks a bit about the East Germans in Aden after the British left, but I can't remember the title off hand.

Posted by: Mario Mirarchi | September 17, 2008 10:55 PM

Thanks Mario, I'll add those to my "get educated" list.

I am kind of surprised that nobody who posts here on the Dump has been there. I would've thought as least *somebody* would step up as an expert.

Ah well. I'll read those books. Thanks.

Posted by: Bob Bateman | September 18, 2008 5:11 AM

I am abandoning lurkinghood and posting only in response that no one posting here been to Yemen.

I've been there and spent a whole one hour at Sanaa airport.

Even with this micro-experience, it was easy to see this is a completely different world.

The men who refueled my airplane wore women's dresses and did a lot of singing.

From the air, Sanaa looks like a fairy tale city of towers. People in the street wave at passing airplanes. :-)


Alexey Braguine is the author of Kingmaker, a geopolitical thriller.

Posted by: Brag | September 18, 2008 8:33 AM

Col. Bateman,

Col. Lang from the SST blog was once posted in Yemen. Drop him a line; he's in Alexandria.

Posted by: fasteddiez | September 18, 2008 11:35 AM

Col. Bateman,

I did some digging today. The Stasi book is called Stasi by Jack Koehler. A couple of pages of interesesting vignettes about Aden, but not much to warrant a serious effort to find it.

Basically Yemen today is a shotgun marriage between the old Aden protectorate of the British Empire days and North Yemen. The People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (I think) had the dubious distinction of being the only communist Middle Eastern country. After the collapse of communism, a conflict ensued and countries united after a peace agreement. Unfortunately, the country has suffered from political violence since then. That basically taps out what I know about Aden.

Posted by: Mario Mirarchi | September 18, 2008 9:39 PM

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