Nationals Journal

Here is a list, free of context:

June 6, 2009 -- John Lannan, vs. NYM (9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 96 pitches)
May 2, 2009 -- Shairon Martis, vs. STL (9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 110 pitches)
July 5, 2009 -- Scott Olsen, vs. ATL (8-2/3 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 116 pitches)
June 17, 2009 -- John Lannan, vs. NYY (8-1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 108 pitches)

Okay, so what is this? A list of the Washington's deepest starting pitching performances in the last two months?

Well, yes. But it's also the list of the deepest starting pitching performances of the Manny Acta ERA. In other words: The four longest outings in Acta's 402-game tenure have all come within the last 48 games. And three have come in the month-plus since Steve McCatty (he of the man-up/be-accountable philosophy) took over as pitching coach. And all have come since Mike Rizzo took over the general manager's office.

After yesterday's game, I asked Acta if he'd changed his philosophy about starting pitchers.

He responded with an emphatic No.

Suddenly, he said, he's just getting better pitching performances -- especially from the two veterans (Lannan and Olsen) whom he's willing to leave on the mound deep into games. (He'll still handle the rookies with kid gloves.)

Exit notes from today's 5-3 Nats' win against the Braves

1.) Viva Scott Olsen. Just when you thought Washington's season had run out of strange turns, along came this latest bend: This 25-year-old lefthander, beaten by all comers in his first eight starts this year, among the worst starters in the National League, all but discarded and forgotten as a crop of shiny rookies invaded the rotation, has somehow returned from injury to look like the exact pitcher Washington always hoped for. Now, Olsen is throwing harder, pushing deep into games, and reestablishing himself as (perhaps) a component of the organization's future. It's only been two games, so we'll hold the champagne-popping, but since coming off the disabled list, Olsen is 1-0 with a 2.87 ERA (15-2/3 IP, five earned runs).

For the first time today, Olsen hinted that shoulder problems -- left shoulder tendinitis sent him to the disabled list on June 8 -- troubled him well before he spoke up.

"Yeah, I just didn't feel very good overall," Olsen said. "That's pretty much as far into detail with that as I'm going to go."

Fair enough. Let's just say this: With a healthy/effective Scott Olsen, the Nationals are even richer with pitching talent than they already thought. It's as if they've just found a rumpled $20 in their jean pockets.

For the first time, Ryan Zimmerman will represent the Nationals as an all star. Zimmerman, 24, today was named to the National League all-star team, adding another highlight to a season that already includes a 30-game hitting streak and a five-year, $45 million contract extension. Zimmerman is the lone Washington player on the squad, and one of just two NL third baseman. New York's David Wright will start at the position.

Zimmerman's selection carries extra significance for the franchise that has designated the former first-round pick as the centerpiece of its rebuilding plan.

Zimmerman this season is hitting .295 with 13 home runs and 46 RBI.

The All-Star Game will be played July 14 in St. Louis.

In the bottom of the first today, Zimmerman stepped into the batter's box with an all-star's introduction. The public address announcer mentioned his selection, prompting a warm ovation from the crowd at Nationals Park. Zimmerman then swatted an RBI single to right, giving the Nationals a 1-0 lead.

Atlanta

McLouth - 8
Prado - 4
Jones - 5
McCann - 2
Escobar - 6
Anderson - 7
Diaz - 9
Kotchman - 3
Lowe - 1

Washington

Morgan - 8
Johnson - 3
Zimmerman - 5
Dunn - 7
Willingham - 9
Guzman - 6
Bard - 2
Belliard - 4
Olsen - 1

By this afternoon, we'll know which player(s) Washington will send to the all-star game. This year, it's not an easy call. Cristian Guzman benefits from playing a position that doesn't have many other candidates, but c'mon, the guy has a .331 OBP. Ryan Zimmerman had his 30 game hitting streak, but since May 13 he's batting .240, and he's also among the league leaders in errors. Adam Dunn has 22 homers, with better-than-expected offensive numbers (.265/.403/.549), but he also wears a mitt every other half-inning. John Lannan has become Washington's stopper, and he's pitched into the eighth inning or beyond in four of his last six starts, but the quality of his team (w/ defense and run support) has hurt his record and ERA. If I were picking a team MVP at this point, Lannan would be my guy. (Get this: Since the start of June, Lannan's starts have helped snap losing streaks, respectively, of three, three, four, two, and four games.) But is he a realistic all-star choice? Probably not.

Anyway, take your pick:

Deep exhale. Plenty to talk about. The good news, for those denizens of NatsTown, came in abundance today, and that's before we even count the post-game "deletion" of reliever Jesus Colome. A 29-year-old slugger hit his 300th career homer. A Nats starter went eight innings, earning a win. The Nats staged a four-run eighth inning comeback and broke a four-game skid.

Among the highlights from the Nats' 5-3 victory against Atlanta:

* John Lannan improved to 6-5 with a steady, efficient performance. He allowed nine hits but induced four double plays, and went eight innings. He was trailing, 3-1, when he exited, but in the bottom of the eighth Washington's offense finally helped him out, scoring four runs against relievers Mike Gonzalez and Peter Moylan.

* That eighth inning was a carousel of quality at bats. Ronnie Belliard came off the bench, pinch-hitting, and worked a single to left. Josh Bard, also pinch-hitting, drew a walk. Nyjer Morgan dropped down a textbook sac bunt. Nick Johnson drew a full-count walk. Ryan Zimmerman tied the game with a two-run single, and then Adam Dunn (swinging at the first pitch!) sailed a liner to center, giving the Nats the go-ahead run.

* Oh, and Dunn, one inning earlier, had poked the only hole in an otherwise dominant seven-inning performance from Atlanta rookie Tommy Hanson, clubbing his 300th career homer to the second deck in right field. An absolute blast. Probably between 440 and 450. Dunn, with that homer, became the 123rd member of the 300-homer club. And he's just the 13th to reach that plateau before age 30.

Three times this year, the Washington Nationals have demoted pitcher Jason Bergmann to the minors. In every instance, the move has forced them to rely on lesser pitchers than Bergmann. And so the right-handed reliever keeps coming back.

Before Sunday's game, Bergmann will be back in uniform, a team source said, recalled from Class AAA Syracuse in the latest round of bullpen reshuffling. In Bergmann's latest Syracuse venture, he has allowed just one earned run in seven games. He has a 1.16 ERA this year with the Chiefs.

The forthcoming roster move means somebody in the current 'pen is on his way out. The best guess here: Jesus Colome, whose ERA is 8.40.

The Nationals have baseball's worst record, a stockpile of tradable veterans and a regular lineup with six of eight position players aged 29 or older. But acting general manager Mike Rizzo said today that he feels no obligation to conduct a firesale, and downplayed the notion that the weeks leading to the July 31 trading deadline would result in team-altering player movement.

"A big transition period? I don't think that," Rizzo said. "We'll make deals based on good baseballs decision. 'Firesale' means you want to dump people. We don't want to dump people."

Among those on Washington's 40-man roster, only two players -- third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and catcher Jesus Flores -- have the entrenched status where you can assume they'll be starting in 2011. Adam Dunn's two-year, $20 million contract expires at the end of 2010. Cristian Guzman's two-year, $16 million expires at the same time. Nick Johnson, currently earning $5.5 million, will be a free agent at year's end. Another veteran in the group drawing trade interest, corner outfielder Josh Willingham, is under club control (and arbitration eligible) for two more years.

The most interesting question about the Nats, in what has otherwise been a nightmare season, is to speculate about how good their young starting pitchers will become when they mature. Please, no silly comparisons to the Braves' trio that's going to the Hall of Fame. What is a more realistic comparison for John Lannan, the only young Nats pitcher who, so far, has a large enough statistical sample to project a career?

When you watch him this afternoon against the Braves, you might consider that Lannan, both statistically and in pitching style ("crafy lefthander" without a 90+ fastball), has a strong resemblance to seven dependable but generally unspectacular hurlers of fairly recent times. All relied on fastball command, a fine change up, poise and savvy.

All of them won 10-plus games at least seven times and some of them did it eight or nine times. All had career ERAs very close to Lannan's current 3.79 (after 53 big-league starts). Four of them had a 20-win season. Six of them were All-Stars at least once. All seven were in the rotation of a team that reached the World Series. And all of them won between 121 and 166 games. No Hall of Famers. Not much glamor. But very good pitchers.

Lannan diverges from the group in only two ways. Our seven lefties all had good to very good career winning percentages. Lannan's career record is 16-22. The obvious explanation is that the Nats have been awful the last two years (.340 percentage), Lannan has been .071 better in '08-'09 (14-20, .411). So, on a .500 team, he might have a W-L record around .571, which is very close to our group of seven.

On the other hand, so far Lannan's career "ERA+" -- that is defined by Baseball Reference as 100 x ERA/League ERA, then adjusted for home ballpark -- is distinctly better than any of the seven guys in our group. This raises an interesting possibility. If Lannan can have a career ERA+ of 115 (where 100 is the league average) while pitching for a bad team with a bad defense, isn't it possible that his career will be better than any of my seven 'mystery' names. Yes, it's possible. And if he is, then he might be quite a pitcher. But it's too early to go that far.

Here are the seven. They all appeal to me from memory as well as statistically. I'd guess Lannan, if reasonably healthy, is the current version of these guys with a small but very pleasant possibility that he might be better.

• CharlieLeibrandt: career 140-119, 3.71 ERA and an ERA+ of 108. Best years: 17-9, 16-11, 15-7.
• Larry Gura: 126-97, 3.76, ERA+ 106. Best: 18-10, 18-12, 16-4.
• Bud Black: 121-116, 3.84, ERA+ 103. Best: 17-12, 13-11, 10-7.
• Scott McGregor: 138-108, 3.99, ERA+ 98. Best: 20-8, 18-7, 13-5.
• Tom Browning: 123-90, 3.94, ERA + 97. Best: 20-9, 18-5, 15-9.
• Ross Grimsley: 124-99, 3.81, ERA+ 92. Best: 20-11, 18-13, 14-8.
• Paul Splitorff: 166-143, 3.81, ERA+ 101. Best: 20-11, 19-13, 16-6.

Lannan has a slightly higher strikeout rate -- 5.0-per-nine-innings than any of these seven -- though Browning, Black and Leibrandt are 4.7 to 4.4. Lannan also walks more than any of them -- 3.6 per-nine-innings. The whole group is 2.7-to-2.3. Lannan may walk (and strikeout) less men as he gets older. Lannan also is tied with Leibrandt for allowing the most homers -- 1.1-per-nine-innings. Finally, there are few pitchers who induce as many double play grounders as Lannan. And he prevents stolen bases well.

If you want to be optimistic, here are three pitchers with a career ERA+ near 115. But all probably had better "stuff" than Lannan. Still, bottom line, ERA (adjusted for era and ballpark) really matters.

• Frank Viola: 176-150, 3.73, ERA+ 112.
• Al Leiter: 162-132, 3.80, ERA+ 112.
• Jimmy Key: 186-117, 3.51, ERA+ 122.

Enjoy the 4th!

Atlanta

McLouth - 8
Prado - 3
Jones - 5
Anderson - 7
Escobar - 6
Diaz - 9
Ross - 2
Conrad - 4
Hanson - 1

Washington

Morgan - 8
Johnson - 3
Zimmerman - 5
Dunn - 7
Willingham - 9
Guzman - 6
Hernandez - 4
Nieves - 2
Lannan - 1

Step-by-step, how to lose a close game:

1.) Summon Jesus Colome from the bullpen.

2.) Watch him walk the leadoff man.

3.) Watch him walk another guy, just for good measure.

4.) Watch him give up a two-out, three-run pinch-hit homer.

Colome's ERA, after tonight's 9-8 loss to Atlanta, stands at 8.40. That's cartoonishly bad, but then again, it's representative of the overall pitching performance tonight. Starter Ross Detwiler faced 22 hitters; 12 reached base. He allowed five earned runs and 10 hits in 3-1/3 innings, and it could have been worse. Twice he escaped innings with the bases loaded. He had absolutely zero fastball command, and later admitted that he couldn't get a feel for his release point. "He struggled mightily," Manny Acta said. "Couldn't get the ball down at all. Every one of them. They hit him pretty good."

The bullpen, Atlanta didn't even need to hit. Washington's relievers threw all the balls necessary to facilitate the scoring. Six of the Nationals' eight walks today came after the seventh inning, as a 5-5 tie fell apart. Two of those free passes were from Colome. In the eighth, as the Braves added another run, taking a 9-6 lead, Ron Villone walked two and Julian Tavarez walked one.

"You put guys on base, I guess they're going to score," Villone said. "That is one thing that's been going on."

Oh, the cruel twist? Atlanta closer Rafael Soriano, trying to protect a 9-6 lead, walked two to start the bottom of the ninth. Both scored with two outs, thanks to a Cristian Guzman double, but then catcher Josh Bard swung at the first pitch and grounded to first. Game over. Nats have now lost nine of 11, um, and 55 of 77.