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Lineups From Nats Park

Here is tonight's lineup. I'll add the Buccos' once I get it.

Washington

Guzman - 6
Johnson - 3
Zimmerman - 5
Dunn - 9
Willingham - 7
Harris - 8
Hernandez - 4
Nieves - 2
Martis - 1

By Chico Harlan  |  May 19, 2009; 3:31 PM ET
 
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Next: Detwiler Earns A Second Start

Comments

Newposted (sort of)

OK, boys and girls. Time for a new theory on the latest suckitude.

Catcher's ERA.

Here are the numbers (courtesy of the geniuses at Baseball-Reference):

Player Age Inn. ERA R/9
Jesus Flores 24 980 5.12 5.73
Wil Nieves 31 447 6.93 7.95
Josh Bard 31 200 7.65 8.55
League Average 4.45 4.79

Indulge the small sample size, but if you combine Nieves and Bard, the numbers tell a clear story.

Flores make the most out of the chicken s%$t he's been given. 5.12 is awful, but lg. avg is only 2/3 of a run higher.

The combined average for Nieves and Bard (since Nieves has roughly twice as many innings, I did ((6.93x2)+ 7.65)/3) is 7.17. (Yes, I know I could get a more precise number by looking at the earned runs versus innings actually played by these two, but that is too much work).

Therefore, the craptastic 5.12 ERA of Flores goes up by over 2 runs per game to a hideous 7.17 when Nieves and Bard are run out there. The anecdotal evidence is there as well if you have been listening to Dibble question pitch selection for the past week. All 3 have had the same horrendous material to work with, for the most part, so the revolving door in the RF bullpen does not explain this.

Thus, the latest 1-7 reverse tear with Nieves and Bard can be directly linked to Flores' injury back in Arizona. Hurry back Jesus!

(Yes, Chico and Dave. Feel free to run the real numbers, inquire of Manny his thoughts on the subject, and muscle up a post on this. No citation necessary.)


Posted by: WebberDC | May 19, 2009 3:21 PM

Posted by: WebberDC | May 19, 2009 3:41 PM | Report abuse

BTW, it should read either:

1. lg average is 2/3 of a run lower; or

2. Flores' ERA is only 2/3 of a run higher than lg average.

Carry on.

Posted by: WebberDC | May 19, 2009 3:43 PM | Report abuse

No one sent down/DFA'd/sent up yet? Wow.

Posted by: Juan-John | May 19, 2009 3:55 PM | Report abuse

only thing that keeps me from thinking 9-8 loss is Martis. Complete game, baby!

Posted by: 1of9000 | May 19, 2009 3:57 PM | Report abuse

Surely, somewhere even as we speak there's a transaction moving across the wire quickly. I can't imagine less than 2 bullpen moves by Friday.

Posted by: hoo93 | May 19, 2009 4:01 PM | Report abuse

No one sent down/DFA'd/sent up yet? Wow.

Posted by: Juan-John | May 19, 2009 3:55 PM

My thoughts exactly. Something must be done before this homestand is over with.

Posted by: FloresFan | May 19, 2009 4:07 PM | Report abuse

Webber - correlation is not causation. for example, Olsen's last appearance was also one of the Bard/Nieves starts, but we can probably guess that the catcher had little to do with the likely cause of Olsen's ineffectiveness, which was his sore arm. Unless he gives noogies to Olsen before he pitches.

Posted by: jca-CrystalCity | May 19, 2009 4:08 PM | Report abuse

Good to have Willingham playing regularly. He will hit if he plays everyday. Kearns swings the bat like a rusty gate. There is no hope for him.

Posted by: bupbups | May 19, 2009 4:08 PM | Report abuse

I am such an idiot. After going 4-4 on the road trip, I thought we might go 8-3 or 7-4 on this home stand and start to climb back towards respectability. I mean there is no way a bullpen can continue to be so bad. Right? Right?

I have nine season tickets (well, my company does), in Rows A and D a bit past first base, and we are having a hard time giving them away. This makes me so sad. How can we be so truly putrid?

Posted by: kevinx | May 19, 2009 4:14 PM | Report abuse

hee hee, thanks for that image.

---

Unless he gives noogies to Olsen before he pitches.

Posted by: natsfan1a1 | May 19, 2009 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Hernandez still at second... I guess his sloppy play and mental errors are buried under the bullpen brouhaha. I think something is wrong with him. His lack of concentration cost us the game on Sunday.

Sure hope tonight's game goes well.

Posted by: longhorn64 | May 19, 2009 4:24 PM | Report abuse

It is funny how when pitchers are performing you hear about how valuable the catcher is, calling the game, framing the pitches, keeping runners close, throwing them out, etc. Think Varitek or Pudge Fisk in the old days -- performance behind the plate or in the batters box may not actually be there, but the perception of it is and that is somehow supposed to really matter, I guess. But when a staff throws like the one in Nats Town the catcher is off the hook, apparently. No discussion as to whether the Nats back stops can do what it takes. Interesting post Webber.

Posted by: dfh21 | May 19, 2009 4:25 PM | Report abuse

Looks to me like they have a trade in the works since they haven't accessed Syracuse again. ESPN reports the the Mets are looking for a 3rd baseman. KC, Boston, and Milwaukee need help as well. Me thinks a trade is in the offing. They've tried everything else.

Posted by: periculum | May 19, 2009 4:30 PM | Report abuse

Mets need a 1st baseman ... my mistake.

Posted by: periculum | May 19, 2009 4:31 PM | Report abuse

So when are they going to take some action with the bullpen?? Are they going to try and move some guys up from the minors (again)?

Posted by: PattyinSJ | May 19, 2009 4:40 PM | Report abuse

I don't care if Willingham hits, or Kearns. Think they should both be traded and Maxwell with Harris starting. Maxwell is a better fielder even though he still needs improvement. At this point trade Hernandez or Guzman and Belliard, bring up Bynum and Gonzalez. Keep the heart of the batting order which is Johnson, Zimmerman, Dunn and Flores when he comes back. Get solid veteran relief pitching and maybe a starter.

Posted by: periculum | May 19, 2009 4:40 PM | Report abuse

It smells like a trade to me.

Posted by: periculum | May 19, 2009 4:41 PM | Report abuse

aren't the pitches called from the bench?

Posted by: stantonpark | May 19, 2009 4:41 PM | Report abuse

My guess is that one may be with the Orioles who are coming to town along with Danys Baez. He gets to audition for his new team coming up this week.

Posted by: periculum | May 19, 2009 4:49 PM | Report abuse

"aren't the pitches called from the bench?"

No. Read this if you don't believe me.

http://nats320.blogspot.com/2009/05/jordan-zimmermann-espn-zone-appearance.html

Posted by: nunof1 | May 19, 2009 4:55 PM | Report abuse

Baez? But....he had TJ surgery a year ago.

Call up Martin. Someone with 26 Ks and 2 BBs is doing something right.

Posted by: fischy | May 19, 2009 4:56 PM | Report abuse

Dawgball,

You are a little rude. I at least know it's find not fine. I at least know the difference between a PROSPECT and a 4A player. Did you ever play baseball or did you just look at baseball cards?

Posted by: natsguy | May 19, 2009 5:14 PM | Report abuse

I do find this blog a bit strange, with people carrying on personal fights from one thread to another.

Posted by: fischy | May 19, 2009 5:17 PM | Report abuse

I wasn't the one who got personal. What was said was very rude.

Posted by: natsguy | May 19, 2009 5:23 PM | Report abuse

"I do find this blog a bit strange, with people carrying on personal fights from one thread to another."

I hate it too, but it's not typical here - and it certainly isn't unique to this blog.

I once visited a weather blog to check a game forecast and found blog comments suggesting that two frequent visitors had a running feud. On a WEATHER blog.

Actually, I find the name-calling and trolls rather scarce around here - not that natsguy and dawgball shouldn't take it outside (which they should, please) but they are the exception that proves the rule.

People who love baseball and hate what's happening to the Nats can and should feel safe here - unless they're defending Clint, in which case they should expect to be mocked mercilessly :)

Posted by: diogenes_quixote | May 19, 2009 5:24 PM | Report abuse

Fischy,

I had never even seen his comments before today. I have been a Senators/Nationals fan since 1964 and have put up with a lot.
But I have never gotten personal on this site. What was written by Dawgball had no business on this site.

Posted by: natsguy | May 19, 2009 5:29 PM | Report abuse

The problem with the idea that pitchers like Flores better doesn't really hold up. All statistical analysis shows that it doesn't really matter who's catching, despite what pitchers say. Look it up, ERA just doesn't correlate with who's behind the dish.

And teams know this, otherwise certain guys would be worth ALOT more $$ than they are. Imagine how much of a better salary a catcher would get if he could shave a run off your teams ERA? They'd be the highest paid guys in the biz.

Posted by: CharlieF | May 19, 2009 5:29 PM | Report abuse

Baez? But....he had TJ surgery a year ago.

Call up Martin. Someone with 26 Ks and 2 BBs is doing something right.

Posted by: fischy | May 19, 2009

Martin is a starter. Clippard, Williams, MacDougal, Rivera, Ledezma and Bergmann have been working relief. Bergmann and Clippard look pretty good. I guess Stammen might come up if they decide to send Detwiler back down to Syracuse.

They've apparently decided the answer isn't there and it seems highly likely there are some pitchers who are currently on the roster who will be seeding Harrisburg and Syracuse very soon.

Baez will be cheap. That's where the Nats usually go.

Posted by: periculum | May 19, 2009 5:35 PM | Report abuse

So MASN is reporting that Detwiler is going to stay up and start against the Os on Saturday.

I love how these guys have a PLAN and stick to it. Amazing.

Posted by: CoverageisLacking | May 19, 2009 5:37 PM | Report abuse

I wasn't the one who got personal. What was said was very rude.

Posted by: natsguy | May 19, 2009

Suggest not going anywhere near RI ...

Posted by: periculum | May 19, 2009 5:38 PM | Report abuse

So MASN is reporting that Detwiler is going to stay up and start against the Os on Saturday.

I love how these guys have a PLAN and stick to it. Amazing.

Posted by: CoverageisLacking | May 19, 2009

It seems pretty clear that they have a trade in the offing. It had better be good, its got to be because management has that huge chore of attempting, again, to sign 2 first round draft picks instead of 1.

Posted by: periculum | May 19, 2009 5:44 PM | Report abuse

I just heard Manny Acta say Ross Detwiler is starting on Saturday on WTOP !!!!

Posted by: Berndaddy | May 19, 2009 5:49 PM | Report abuse

Changes are right around the corner!!!!

Posted by: TigerDog | May 19, 2009 5:50 PM | Report abuse

I just heard Manny Acta say Ross Detwiler is starting on Saturday on WTOP !!!!

Posted by: Berndaddy | May 19, 2009

At this point does it really matter? I am wondering who's the middle relief and who can hold and close and innings 8 & 9.

Posted by: periculum | May 19, 2009 5:51 PM | Report abuse

LET'S GO NATS!

Here we go again. :/

Posted by: rachel216 | May 19, 2009 5:57 PM | Report abuse

Hopefully, Martis will pitch like he did vs. St. Louis because that's probably the only way we'll win if he pitches a complete game.

Posted by: rxs85 | May 19, 2009 5:58 PM | Report abuse

where's the roster move to reboot the bullpen? where? where?

Posted by: sammoMD | May 19, 2009 5:58 PM | Report abuse

Erock33 what is the fascination with JD Martin. He was drafted 8 years ago and had never pitched an inning in MLB. He has had Tommy John surgery. He is closer to 27 than 25. The Indians are a well managed franchise and they did not see any value in keeping him or they would have kept him. Stop acting like he is a PROSPECT. He is just another 4A player and they already have a bunch of that in the bullpen. You get to see that every night after the 6th inning when the bullpen blows up. Get over him. We don't need more 4A crap.

Posted by: natsguy | May 19, 2009

It looks to me like you are getting personal natsguy? Who cares who had TJ and who hasn't. He's still reasonably young. He's pitching, not just throwing as evidenced by his WHIP which is the best among Syracuse starters at 0.89 in 31.1. innning. He also has 26 strike outs against only TWO walks!!!!

Why take a "prospect" who isn't seasoned and isn't ready and use him as a cannon fodder for teams coming into to play the nationals looking for some good batting practice.

Statistically, Martin looks seasoned and ready. Since he isn't a "prospect" wouldn't it be better to put his ego, self-confidence on the line in what is rapidly becoming a high pressure, almost playoff situation? As opposed to a young, potential like Detwiler, or even Stammen? Why not let Acta and Rizzo screw around with Martin's head instead?

Posted by: periculum | May 19, 2009 6:00 PM | Report abuse

Detwiler on Sat... cool. At least that's something to look forward to at the ballpark on Saturday!

Posted by: RicketyCricket | May 19, 2009 6:04 PM | Report abuse

I too think that a trade may be in the works. Teams must be calling the Nats every day with this or that seemingly viable arm in return for one of our surplus OF's or Johnson, maybe even Belliard. Bad contracts abound, so maybe something breaks the log jam and the Nats get somebody with an upside to throw strikes. We'll see.

Posted by: dfh21 | May 19, 2009 6:06 PM | Report abuse

Martin > Cabrera
Stammen > Cabrera
Pedro > Cabrera
Detwiler > Cabrera

But like someone said - it doesn't matter much who starts games for us anymore.

Posted by: goexpos2 | May 19, 2009 6:07 PM | Report abuse

@jca-CrystalCity:

I understand what you are saying, and a look at the starters for each catcher bears that out to some degree.

Flores (23) - Lannan 7, Olsen 3, Cabrera 4, Martis 5, Jay-Z 4

Nieves (11) - Lannan 1, Olsen 2, Cabrera 3, Martis 2 (including his best 2 v. StL and SF), Jay-Z 2

Bard (4) - Olsen 3, Detweiler 1 (probably too small a sample size.

Nevertheless, the team record by catcher is interesting:

Flores - 9-14 (bad but not awful)

People not named Flores - 2-12 (Unmentionably putrid)

Flores obviously takes the offense up a few notches, but since his injury, we are averaging 6.33 runs/game, so that isn't the issue.

More evidence (correlative in your view, causational in mine) that the catching has made bad pitching even worse.

Posted by: WebberDC | May 19, 2009 6:12 PM | Report abuse

Keeping Detwiler up here is a big mistake. Just a day ago Rizzo said he needed more time in the minors; now he is staying up? He had an awful, AWFUL, year last year; even if he has been having a good year in AA so far this year (though a 1.4 WHIP is hardly inspiring), there are a huge number of things that he should be working on in the minors before he is given the chance to join the rotation, NEXT SEASON. To name just a couple: learning how to successfully make adjustments, and learning how to pitch deep (innings) into ballgames. You can't learn that stuff at the big-league level. And he is certainly not going to learn how to pitch deep into ballgames with Manny Axta as his skipper anyway.

Anyway, if Detwiler is not up now for an indefenite period, exactly what is it? When does he go back down? One spot start is one thing, but this is becoming a bit bizarre now. He's the first starter the Nats have had to go to beyond their initial 5 starters. But every single team in the major leagues needs to rely on way more than 5 starters over the course of the season. So is Detwiler seriously their first back-up option, coming off a crappy season in A ball?

The thing that really gets me about this organization is that there is so much hot air BS from Kasten et al, and yet they fail miserably (and arrogantly, thanks, Stan) in the execution. The Plan is great in theory, but not when a bunch of bozos are implementing it. If Detwiler is not ready for the big-leagues permanently (and no one has credibly suggested that he is), why is he up here for more than a single spot start? The only thing that should matter for Detwiler is his long-term development, and that's not best achieved by him learning at the big-league level. That's the way a team ruins the development of a promising pitching prospect.

Posted by: CoverageisLacking | May 19, 2009 6:13 PM | Report abuse

I am really curious now what they will do to reboot the Arson Brigade. They have to get MacDougal on the roster, so does that mean releasing Cintron? They can bring in one of Clippard or Bergmann for Mock without releasing anyone. As for Clippard, someone said he's gotten a little walk happy in his last 9 innings. If that is the case, then they may hold off another move.

As much as some love to hate on Hanrahan, I think he'll be the last one off the island among Tavarez, Column-B, and him. Villone, Beimel, and Wells I think are relatively safe.

Posted by: jca-CrystalCity | May 19, 2009 6:15 PM | Report abuse

How could giving Detwiler another start be a bad thing? I'd rather he got to triple A knowing what works on the big leagues, and what he needs to improve upon. So long as he's not up here for a month or two, whats the harm?

He definitely earned his right to ge to a second start.

Posted by: kingtutts | May 19, 2009 6:17 PM | Report abuse

Trade Johnson to the Mets for 2 young relievers and Billy Wagner thrown in (for next year). Move Maxwell to CF and leadoff with Guzman batting 2nd. Dunn goes to 1st which is the only position other than DH that I, in good conscience, could put him. Maxwell is going to be a heeluva player - all the tools and is more than ready right now.

Posted by: hersheyman | May 19, 2009 6:20 PM | Report abuse

helluva!!

Posted by: hersheyman | May 19, 2009 6:21 PM | Report abuse

I agree completely that Detwiler should be in AAA at this point whether or not he deserves another shot based on performance. Where does that argument end if his start on Saturday goes as well? I think this is probably an indication that the injuries necessitating his move up in the first place are lingering longer than expected. Welcome back to the road well traveled.

I'm just glad it falls on Saturday while I'm in attendance. Although I did just find out we're sitting in section 101... Eww!

Posted by: RicketyCricket | May 19, 2009 6:24 PM | Report abuse

Cov.is Lacking: Hey my friend there is no plan like the Titanic everything was fine until the iceberg got in the way, Kasten is a partner so we as fans are stuck,hey they ran him out of Atl.(where i currently reside) and as long as he's got a piece of the action all things baseball related go through him i'm hoping Rizzo can gain his confidence and he'll step back and let the GM do his thing, hey that's our only hope.

Posted by: dargregmag | May 19, 2009 6:27 PM | Report abuse

I may not be exactly an impartial observer, but of course catching makes a big difference. Not only can it make a difference offensively, but runners are affected by a catcher's ability to throw them out at 2nd, even if it just keeps them close to 1st, the ability to pounce on a bunt, and raises the confidence level of that most delicate of athletes, a major league pitcher. Pitching may be 70% of the game, but catching is what makes pitching work.

Wait...two guys were going after each other on a weather blog??? What were they fighting about? I mean, I can see: We should trade x or obtain y, but...those cumulus clouds aren't white enough????

This may be the end of civilization as we know it.

Posted by: Catcher50 | May 19, 2009 6:30 PM | Report abuse

Weather blog, shmeather blog. It's the Internet, Catcher50.

natsguy, I wasn't following the previous thread in detail, but generally speaking I'd say that while the tone here sometimes degenerates, particularly during losing streaks, it has tended to be more civil than other sports blogs I've visited. Also, in scanning some recent threads, it seems to me that some of the less civil comments were not generated by "regulars" (unless they're using alternate monikers). This too shall pass.

Posted by: natsfan1a1 | May 19, 2009 6:43 PM | Report abuse

Okay, once more into the breach. Let's go NATS!!

Posted by: natsfan1a1 | May 19, 2009 6:45 PM | Report abuse

Shairon Martis is only 22 years old and he seems to be doing just fine. Detwiler is older, why shouldn't he be afforded a shot to stick?

Posted by: cokedispatch | May 19, 2009 6:52 PM | Report abuse

Martis had 4 years of minor league experience. Detwiler has had 1, and it was a major failure of a year. Big difference.

Posted by: CoverageisLacking | May 19, 2009 6:59 PM | Report abuse

Hey Nat's fans, this is Dawgball (California Desert baseball) Just want ya all to know I have apologized to Natsguy for the aditude, bad day!! Last thing I want to do is create crap between baseball fans!! The main thing is I've let the Nat's fans know the kid, healthy, is going to win for YOU. As he did for the Indians. Believe me the Indians and JD still have a fond relationship. He just wants to get their sooner than later!! Times wast-in....

Posted by: dawgball | May 20, 2009 1:45 AM | Report abuse

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