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Strasburg, From Several Perspectives

Check out Boz's Stephen Strasburg column this morning. He touches on just about every point that will make these upcoming 1-1/2 days so compelling. Boz is convinced that neither side knows what the other will do. "Both [sides] are worried, but cover it well," Boz writes. "Signing contracts, not blowing them up, is their job and their responsibility -- the Nats to their franchise and their fans, Boras to his client. If they don't get a deal done, it's a mammoth failure of adult supervision."

Wow, these are fightin' words from Rob Dibble.

The Biz of Baseball site takes a nuanced look at Strasburg's value.

Here's a list of the unsigned draft picks. The Mariners are still trying to sign No. 2 pick Dustin Ackley; same holds true for the Padres at No. 3, who selected Donovan Tate; with Tate, there have been rumors of a signing, but nothing official yet.

By Chico Harlan  |  August 16, 2009; 7:50 AM ET
 
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Next: Source: Nats Must Increase Offer to Strasburg

Comments

"When I wake up from my nap, and the suitcase is there, I'll know I have a partner".

Zzzzzz-zzzz-zzzz.

Posted by: BinM | August 16, 2009 8:39 AM | Report abuse

What helps the Nats is that Pittsburgh or KC could be SS's team next year (and not SD) if he passes on the Nats. That's not an improvement for the kid. The Nats have been clearing and saving lots of money for this one signing, so it should get done.

Posted by: EdDC | August 16, 2009 9:08 AM | Report abuse

"Stephen, think about back when you were a little kid. It wasn't about the money, was it? Was it?"

Posted by: natsfan1a1 | August 16, 2009 9:08 AM | Report abuse

First, SS will sign tonight at the deadline. He will not like it and I am not sure I like him at this point but it will get done in my view.

Second, Kip Wells and Logan Kensing both suck and drag a game down to an unwatchable pace. Rizzo, I am tired of watching Logan.

Third....506.....are you still holding out that the chance a full month ago, firing Acta, has had no effect on the team?

Posted by: JayBeee | August 16, 2009 9:11 AM | Report abuse

it will happen. the nats have the best future of all the "bad" teams out there this or next year. we also have the most money. the best offense, the biggest market, etc.

i'd love to have him here and will buy a strasburg shirt for my kid as soon as i can.

but if he doesn't sign i won't cry and i will still be a fan of the nats. i love prospects but that's all they are. so ultimately, it's his choice to sign. we've already picked him.

Posted by: longterm | August 16, 2009 9:35 AM | Report abuse

I believe that the deadline is tomorrow night.

Posted by: natsfan1a1 | August 16, 2009 9:36 AM | Report abuse

I'm with you there, longterm.

---

but if he doesn't sign i won't cry and i will still be a fan of the nats.

Posted by: natsfan1a1 | August 16, 2009 9:38 AM | Report abuse

"Senator? You can have my answer now, if you like. My final offer is this: nothing."

/not applicable...maybe

Posted by: joemktg1 | August 16, 2009 9:39 AM | Report abuse

Dibs49's argument is the most cogent one yet. Add that to Boz's "If they don't get a deal done, it's a mammoth failure of adult supervision.", and you've got another potential FAIL situation.

Posted by: joemktg1 | August 16, 2009 9:42 AM | Report abuse

ops yes tomorrow night.....at the deadline....last second....if he does not sign then I will blame him not the Nats for this one. Crow was the Nats fault, this failure will be on SS.

Posted by: JayBeee | August 16, 2009 9:49 AM | Report abuse

The issue isn't that firing Acta didn't have an effect on the team... it clearly did. The issue is whether or not Acta is or will be a solid MLB manager. The jury's still out on that one.

Manny could make a convincing case that his first priority was to TEACH THESE KIDS FUNDAMENTALS. Hence his determination to keep Milledge in CF; to not pull pitchers hastily, particularly relievers, etc. Sure he wanted to win, but he never believed it was job #1, even after Rizzo turned up the heat. The job was to find and hone the right pieces for the future.

Riggleman is managing to WIN: he'll pull Sean Burnett after facing only two hitters without recording an out; no way Manny does that because how will the kid learn to work his way out of trouble without logging the innings? Riggleman couldn't bear to keep Kensing in last night's game with a five-run cushion. Acta wouldn't have pulled him until the tying run was in the batter's box.

Each man has different marching orders, making any comparision into a classic apples-to-oranges scenario. It's enough that the team is responding well to Riggleman. Hopefully Manny is keeping an eye on the broadcasts, watching and learning something about priorities. If he does, we'll learn soon enough how good a manager he'll be.

Posted by: MikeH0714 | August 16, 2009 9:52 AM | Report abuse

I agree that Acta had a completely different view of the job priorities. I agree that he did not even try to win games.

THAT WAS THE POINT!

Mike, many posters here never admitted that point. Acta also did not get any results with developing players with that stupid teach and preach crap. IT DID NOT WORK. He was fired because players regressed under him and he refused to adjust to being a MLB manager, he refused to try a different approach.....that is not a trait you look for in a manager of people. He will not get another manager job in MLB for a very long time, not until he proves in the minor leagues that he can be flexible and react to situations presented to him in real time. At best he will get a AA job or a base coach if Omar keeps his job....not likely if you ask me.

This month proved that Acta was the wrong guy for this team AND he is the wrong guy for the title MLB Manager. Even Boz is now admitting this after defending him all year and saying how he will his next job right away......right!

Posted by: JayBeee | August 16, 2009 10:04 AM | Report abuse

I really don't think the Lerners are cheap. With the Tex offer, the Dunn signing, a record breaking offer to an unproven arm, no, they're not cheap. Should SS walk away from a record breaking deal, good luck wherever you throw for pennies on the dollar. This type of offer won't come twice.

Posted by: cokedispatch | August 16, 2009 10:13 AM | Report abuse

Mr.Strasberg: Take the offer young man,as I said in my post last night you risk the potential of driving a wedge between yourself, teamates, and fans you have a rare oppourtunity not afforded many in this country, a very lucrative and more than fair contract, a chance to earn millions with future endorsements, a fan base hungry for a winner you have an agent who has a history of being divissive where contract negotiations are concerned don't be foolish and turn down millions, sign and get your career underway.

Posted by: dargregmag | August 16, 2009 10:17 AM | Report abuse

The Nats are in a win/win situation here. If Strasburg signs, they have a crowd-drawing pitcher with a high performance ceiling. If Strasburg turns down this deal to sit out a year, it will prove that he really doesn't have the commitment to his craft that will be essential to his reaching his high ceiling.

In other words, if Strasburg doesn't sign and takes a year off baseball, it shows that he really isn't the man we all hoped he was. The Nats are better off without somebody who would let Scott Boras take such huge risks with his professional career.

Posted by: Snopes1 | August 16, 2009 10:41 AM | Report abuse

Hey kid, ask your agent this: If I don't sign and then I get hurt or don't set the independent league on fire next year, will you write me a check for for $16 million? You are certain enough of this to share the risk with me, right?

Posted by: NatsFly | August 16, 2009 11:09 AM | Report abuse

>In other words, if Strasburg doesn't sign and takes a year off baseball, it shows that he really isn't the man we all hoped he was. The Nats are better off without somebody who would let Scott Boras take such huge risks with his professional career.

Posted by: Snopes1

No they're not.

Posted by: Brue | August 16, 2009 11:10 AM | Report abuse

Seems to me that Boras has stuck his neck so far out on this one (as well as the other top draft picks) that he is in a must-win situation, i.e., his reputation cannot afford capitulation on these negotiations. Only his client(s) can advise the adviser as to what course of action so that Boras has cover on the retreat. Hoping the Strasburg clan can see the light on this one.

It's not right that Boras uses these young men as the means by which to challenge the system.

Posted by: joemktg1 | August 16, 2009 11:35 AM | Report abuse

I think this is going to get done. Boras' biggest sword to hang over Kasten's head is the fanbase's reaction to the failure to sign SS. And Kasten took that away (or at least attempted to) by already telling the base to be prepared if it doesn't happen.

Anything in the media at his point is deliberately put there by either side, which means they are negotiating and it isn't a standoff, at least not yet. As Boswell pointed out its to everyone's interest to get this done.

If SS does walk, how 'bout putting some of that Strasburg budget into the current pitching staff and bringing in a top flight starter to take some pressure off of Lannan and co? Use the money to extend Dunn. I really don't care if Strasburg pitches here or not, and I understand that paying him is a crapshoot. Make the team better with the money, whether its w/ Strasburg or someone else.

Posted by: raymitten | August 16, 2009 11:39 AM | Report abuse

Here is a perspective that I have not personally heard anyone put forward yet. Let's say the signing does not get done. Strassburg waits a year. Don't we have another "prospect of the century" coming into the draft next year--the high school catcher hitting the mammoth home runs?" Suppose that he is more of a sure thing than Strassburg is. If he got drafted first then he would likely suck the money of the number 1 draft position away from SS. Now SS finds himself looking at the number 2 spot and a lot less than 16 million. Hmmmmmm.

Posted by: driley | August 16, 2009 11:41 AM | Report abuse

If Strasburg doesn't sign. He should look at Jordan Zimmermann and see how fast it can all go away.If he has any sense at all, and I'm beginning to wonder, He better call Loudes of London and get himself insured.

Posted by: pstotts15 | August 16, 2009 11:52 AM | Report abuse

driley,
I'm right with you on this one.

When you have TWO "player of our generation" studs in the same draft, and one is a pitcher, and one is an everyday position player, you'll likely see the difference in value for the two.

This is his best chance to get top value -- too bad his "advisor" is using him as a pawn for a structural adjustment.

My prediction: offer of $15m/year plus incentives, and gets signed at 10:30 pm, so Boras can sign all his other guys before the midnight deadline.

I wonder: Does Boras have offer sheets for each one spread along an entire conference room? THIS would be an interesting story for some reporter to cover -- sitting in the Boras office over this weekend and writing about that experience (with some agreements on confidentiality, if required).

Posted by: mo_dc | August 16, 2009 12:18 PM | Report abuse

Raymitten,
You've hit my point this one. For me, it's not about Strasburg, per se, it's about whether the team is willing to make the investments necessary to become a 70+ win franchise next year on its way to becoming a .500+ franchise in 2011.

If you think Strasburg isn't worth the money, then you put that money into free agent pitching, especially with the loss of Zimmermann for all of next season. If you don't do that, it's focus on the minors fans because they are hoping they can luck into starting pitching, not pay market value.

Posted by: souldrummer | August 16, 2009 12:18 PM | Report abuse

>If you think Strasburg isn't worth the money, then you put that money into free agent pitching, especially with the loss of Zimmermann for all of next season. If you don't do that, it's focus on the minors fans because they are hoping they can luck into starting pitching, not pay market value.

Posted by: souldrummer

It's not about Strasburg. If you don't think Strasburg is worth the money, you sign him anyway and pick up a half dozen major league ready players, from good organizations, because they're the only ones who will give up anything substantial because he's the final piece of the puzzle type guy. The Indians and Royals won't go after him, the Red Sox and other contenders will.

Posted by: Brue | August 16, 2009 12:28 PM | Report abuse

I read this as "Lourdes of London" -- now *that* is what I call insurance! If you get hurt, they don't pay, they heal you!

Oh, and Harold Lloyd, Christopher Lloyd, and Lloyd Bridges called.
*****************************
He better call Loudes of London and get himself insured.
Posted by: pstotts15 | August 16, 2009 11:52 AM

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 12:36 PM | Report abuse

Oh no, the Nationals.com site has a Belliard piece, could it be a jinx. Time for the Belly bashing, the toad, to begin. What a doof.

Posted by: cokedispatch | August 16, 2009 12:41 PM | Report abuse

There's a reason you haven't heard that.
Several, actually. Assuming that catcher, Bryce Harper, goes first (whether to DC or elsewhere), that only sucks up money from the team that has to sign him. The rest of the teams just got the bar raised on them, and other prospects will get more expensive, not less.
But that's unlikely to affect Strasburg in any event, for reasons Boz wrote about this morning.

*****************
Here is a perspective that I have not personally heard anyone put forward yet. Let's say the signing does not get done. Strasburg waits a year. Don't we have another "prospect of the century" coming into the draft next year--the high school catcher hitting the mammoth home runs?" Suppose that he is more of a sure thing than Strasburg is. If he got drafted first then he would likely suck the money of the number 1 draft position away from SS. Now SS finds himself looking at the number 2 spot and a lot less than 16 million. Hmmmmmm.
Posted by: driley | August 16, 2009 11:41 AM |

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 12:46 PM | Report abuse

Of course, Brue means to trade him *the year AFTER they signed him*, because Brue knows (all together now) you can't trade draft picks.
************
It's not about Strasburg. If you don't think Strasburg is worth the money, you sign him anyway and pick up a half dozen major league ready players, from good organizations, because they're the only ones who will give up anything substantial because he's the final piece of the puzzle type guy. The Indians and Royals won't go after him, the Red Sox and other contenders will.
Posted by: Brue | August 16, 2009 12:28 PM

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 12:49 PM | Report abuse

Jaybeee, one question: if Crow doesn't sign with KC (who are offering less than DC did, reportedly), and has to sit another year, and at that point probably winds up selling tires at Walmart, then whose fault will it be?

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 12:52 PM | Report abuse

Oh, and the other reason I forgot to mention: Whether or not the Nats get the first pick next year, they will get the second one if they don't sign Strasburg this year. So if he doesn't sign, and they do get the first pick (and they are still several games "up" in that race), then he can't possibly go earlier than #3 overall, and it's harder to argue for record-breaking amounts from Not-First.

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 12:58 PM | Report abuse

Holy Smokes! Belly's batting THIRD!

Posted by: NatsNut | August 16, 2009 12:59 PM | Report abuse

Let's say the Nats stay competitive under Riggleman for the rest of the year, and finish, say, 64-98. They could have four or five teams picking ahead of them, unless they have pick 1a. In that scenario, maybe it's good that there is no obvious consensus first pick (yet) for 2010--Harper gets a lot of press, but so do some others. The chances of coming up with an eventual star of the draft class should go up from the not-quite-tiptop picks.

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 1:06 PM | Report abuse

Is that a lineups post I smell cooking there?

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 1:07 PM | Report abuse

N Morgan CF
C Guzman SS
R Belliard 3B
A Dunn 1B
J Willingham LF
E Dukes RF
A Gonzalez 2B
W Nieves C
J Lannan P

W Taveras CF
D Sutton 2B
J Votto 1B
J Gomes RF
W Balentien LF
A Rosales 3B
P Janish SS
R Hanigan C
J Lehr P

Posted by: BGinVA | August 16, 2009 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Morgan
Guzman - 6
Belliard - 5
Dunn
Willingham
Dukes
Gonzales
Nieves
Lannan

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 1:09 PM | Report abuse

Cincinnati

Tavares 8
Sutton 4
Votto 3
Gomes 9
Balentien 7
Rosales 5
Janish 6
Hanigan 2
Lehr 1

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 1:10 PM | Report abuse

dang BG, beat me again! That's 2 I owe you now.

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 1:11 PM | Report abuse

beat you to it :)

Posted by: BGinVA | August 16, 2009 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Hey! New Streak!

"Jimmy, it's on! ... AGAIN!"

;-)

Posted by: mo_dc | August 16, 2009 1:13 PM | Report abuse

Oh, it's on alright.

And the third baseman was very late coming in on that popup.

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 1:17 PM | Report abuse

Reds have made a bunch of plays that were first-half Nats-like this series, dontcha think?

yikes for them, and quite a different lineup for us with Zim out.

Posted by: mo_dc | August 16, 2009 1:17 PM | Report abuse

For those interested, I have added more on Strasburg pertaining to the number of years in a possible contract. Article is on The Biz of Baseball:

http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3488:with-strasburg-it-may-be-the-yearsmore-than-money-that-is-the-focus&catid=26:editorials&Itemid=39

Posted by: MauryBrown | August 16, 2009 1:27 PM | Report abuse

Where is Zim today?

Posted by: edr04 | August 16, 2009 1:28 PM | Report abuse

the report before the game said Zimmerman was in Italy, studying the craft of "dirt marquetry" from an ancient master on the summit of Mt. Vesuvius.

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 1:30 PM | Report abuse

Nice one, Sec3!

Posted by: HotNats | August 16, 2009 1:31 PM | Report abuse

you don't think I was too subtle, do you?

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Man, I'm not sure Belliard would make my Ponce team at third.

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 1:47 PM | Report abuse

Guess you can start the Belly-bashing now. Fortunately, the error didn't matter. :)

Posted by: Nats_Lady | August 16, 2009 1:48 PM | Report abuse

new post

Posted by: BGinVA | August 16, 2009 1:48 PM | Report abuse

New p...

dang, BG.

Posted by: Sec3mysofa | August 16, 2009 1:51 PM | Report abuse

I would love to have a transcript of Dibble's on-air explanation the other night. It was superb, concise, totally understandable. It would be great to read it on the blog, Chico.

Posted by: sbuck | August 16, 2009 6:37 PM | Report abuse

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