Mark, Lay off the "water" if you think the Saints have a shot at winning this weekend! Rex is almost as good as me, and they looked fantastic last weeekend in that crushing victory.

"law of averages says that the Patriots' good fortune has to run out at some point."

No it doesn't.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

While the law of averages is not correct, the Gambler's Fallacy does not apply in football.

Football depends on the actions and judgements of coaches, players and officials whose decisions are influenced by past events. Therefore each game is not a completely random event as required by the Gambler's fallacy.

Very little that determines the outcome of a football game is random chance, except for the coin flip to determine the recieving team at the beginning of overtime.

Most important is the drive and determination to win, which can be influenced by a teams perception of luck. Perhaps this is the year that Indy shakes off the mistakes of the past and plays the game of which they are capable.

Nice try, HardyW.

Thanks for the picks!

Time to bet the Bear and Pats. You have made me alot of money this year, Thanks Insider!

Ok last post as Mikey....
It's hard to bet against money in the bank (Brady in the playoffs) and for a long shot (Payton in the playoffs).

Good show Pendantic and HardyW.
Just to play devils advocate. Even the coin toss is not necessarily an isolated event in terms of true probability. What If the thrower always puts the head up for example. I'm sure there's a chaos theory equation or topological projection involving 600 Tori that would accurately predict this. Devising it will be like proving the 4-color-map theorem that I did as an undergrad, or that cheap hack Andrew Wiles did when he ripped off my solution to Fermat's last theorem (written about in the margin of my notebook because I ran out of paper). And you thought I was stupid for getting busted with my water bottle...

Oh - I have wanted a Saints-Colts super Bowl for the whole year! It is my dream game - can't be unhappy with whoever wins. Went to grad school in Indiana and not ties to New Orleans - but Dungy and New Orleans deserve the Super Bowl

According to your record in the playoffs, I feel I need to bet the other way.

Bear-Packers. Rematch in the Stuper-bowl...

Much as I'm not a New England fan, Manning can't beat Brady and Belechek. It's not in him.

Reluctantly, I say the Pats will win this one pretty easily. 24-10 Pats.

NFC is not so easy. Both teams are pretty mediocre. Saints cannot cover the center of the field. But Grossman is perhaps in the lower 1/3 of NFL QB's who start. On the other hand, the only thing the Saints have going for them is a bruising back. But the only strength of chicago is backs which negate him. Bush will be a non-factor as he's tired of getting the cr*p beat out of him last week.

So out of this ineptitude you have to pick a winner. I'm picking.... uh... Chicago in an accident. 17-7.

The Pats to the big game? Never in a million years. How many times did the Chargers intercept Brady, only to fumble it back to the Pats in the same play? They were lucky to make it out of San Diego, and Belichick knew it from the look on his face at the end of the game. The Colts' defense is playing well enough that Brady needs to be almost perfect to give them any shot at winning. Colts are a lock for the Super Bowl.

I'd like to point out that my picks were sheer genius. Reality bears them out (if you'll pardon the pun).