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Another poll shows Sestak ahead

This, from Rasmussen, might be the first non-tracking poll to find Joe Sestak leading Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary:

Suppose the Democratic Primary for the 2010 United States Senate were held today. Would you vote for Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak?

Sestak 47 percent

Specter 42

Eight percent are undecided. Over the weekend, Sestak edged ahead in the Muhlenberg College tracking poll -- he now leads in that poll by five -- but many observers were holding out for corroboration from second poll.

We now have that second poll, courtesy of Rasmussen. It's the first public survey that isn't a tracking poll to show Sestak ahead. While it's true that in both polls Sestak's lead approximates the margin of error, making this a dead heat, Rasmussen clearly shows Specter losing support: He's down six points from March, and a far greater number of respondents perceive him as running a negative campaign.

I hear that two other polls are currently in the field in Pennsylvania, with results to come out this week. So, soon enough, we'll have a very clear picture of what's happening. But right now more and more data is suggesting that with only a week to go, Sestak is the one with the momentum.

By Greg Sargent  |  May 10, 2010; 2:31 PM ET
Categories:  2010 elections , Senate Dems  
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Comments

And Sestak is already hitting Specter for his previous "No" vote to confirm Kagan as SG.

Posted by: sbj3 | May 10, 2010 2:39 PM | Report abuse

This is how daft Andrea Mitchell is: on her show today she talked about Specter having voted against her as SG, and asked whether he would be for her this time. Then she asked a Politico talking head about whether the Sestak surge was really a threat.

No connection between the two. No idea that the Sestak challenge virtually ASSURES his quick and vocal support for Kagan.

Unless he just wants to lose the primary and get it over with.

I really need to stop watching daytime news.

Posted by: BGinCHI | May 10, 2010 2:49 PM | Report abuse

Good news or not, remember it is Rasmussen. They don't have a great record in terms of accuracy. However, as it backs up data from other sources, maybe they got this one right.

Who will shed tears if Specter loses to Sestak?

Posted by: Gasman1 | May 10, 2010 2:51 PM | Report abuse

Specter goes down. I hope even more that Lincoln follows suit.

Posted by: wbgonne | May 10, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

More good news:

Utah Blue Dog Dem Matheson Forced Into House Primary

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/05/utah-blue-dog-dem-matheson-forced-into-house-primary.php

Posted by: wbgonne | May 10, 2010 3:25 PM | Report abuse

Gret, which one has the better poll numbers against Toomey, Specter or Sestak?

Posted by: Beeliever | May 10, 2010 3:32 PM | Report abuse

*Greg

Posted by: Beeliever | May 10, 2010 3:33 PM | Report abuse

I think Obama naming Kagan now is designed in part to boost Sestak. Now Specter has to reverse himself on Kagan which reminds everyone all over again that he is really a Republican. I can't imagine that the White House could be unaware of the significance of the timing; Obama would have simply waited another week if he wanted to throw Specter a lifeline.

Posted by: wbgonne | May 10, 2010 3:34 PM | Report abuse

Not at all fond of the comment section on this new platform. It's similar to commenting on a news network site such as CNN's: cold, impersonal and slow.

A reply button would help.

Posted by: Beeliever | May 10, 2010 3:43 PM | Report abuse

All, this is pretty amusing

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/05/shadowy_outside_group_in_arkan.html

Posted by: Greg Sargent | May 10, 2010 3:51 PM | Report abuse

@Beeliever:

Specter polls a little better against Toomey than Sestak does, but Specter is still under 50 if I recall - and that's definitely his ceiling.

Sestak is polling just behind Toomey right now, and that's with a low name ID and no Democratic "machine" behind him, and recall that PA is a machine state.

While some want to claim that Specter would have a better shot in the GE, all they have to do is look at the damage Sestak has done by attacking his party switch. You better believe Toomey would hammer that from now until election day...so if it has this big an effect over this short time frame, it's difficult to see him pulling it out in the fall.

Posted by: TheBBQChickenMadness | May 10, 2010 4:02 PM | Report abuse

Gasman1, you really do not know what you are talking about. Rasmussen not reliable? It had the closest final poll on the McCain - Obama election. NBC, ABC, CBS, Gallup, Zogby, Newsweek and Time all near the bottom of 20 major polls. Rasmussen has bad news for Democrats and that is why I think you do not like its reporting. Even Slate had to concede Rasmussen was also the most accurate in the 2004 election.

Posted by: Childrex | May 10, 2010 4:12 PM | Report abuse

Arlen Specter personifies what is wrong with Washington. He thought he was entitled to his Senate seat and switched to the DEMs because he knew he would not win the Repub nomination. There it is folks. It stinks. To PA, deny him the nomination. He doesn't deserve it. Send him packing.

Posted by: Jackets | May 10, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

Good i hope he gets the gigantic boot just like the rest of them deserve

TAKE BACK AMERICA PEOPLE

WAKE UP

OBAMA AND HIS LYING FACTORY MUST GO !!!!!

Posted by: yourmomscalling | May 10, 2010 5:46 PM | Report abuse

As Primary voters in both parties seek out ideological purists as candidates I see an interesting mid-term on the horizon. Teapartyers going head to head with Grayson clones.
BTW, if there are any Grayson clones in VA-02 who want to take on Glenn Nye please go for it. He's toast anyway, not even potus could pull his bluedog nuts out of the fire.

Posted by: femocrat | May 11, 2010 9:56 AM | Report abuse

Sestak is a smart guy and Specter is an old man who should be shown the door.

Posted by: peterdc | May 11, 2010 2:08 PM | Report abuse

Rassmussian polls are terrible and today's Mullenburg poll shows it at a 4 point difference and not 5.
This race is going to be decided on turn out, and Specter has the massive Democratic machine backing him 100%. He also has all the union support as well as the Teachers federation and fire fighters.
This race is not over even if Sestak is out claiming he is already the winner.
I am voting for Specter, and no poll is going to pursuade me other wise.

Posted by: margievogel | May 11, 2010 6:57 PM | Report abuse

WBgone,

No one in the Dem party likes Sestak, he has used them and thumbed his nose at them. And, Obama did not name Kagan to throw good old Joe a bone.

Oh, and I will be extremely disappointed if Specter doesn't win. Sestak is a phony, a conservative voter and has taken most of his money from Republicans to run his campaign. He won't release his military records and he has only been a registered Democrat for four years. Before that, he was a registered Independent.

Posted by: margievogel | May 11, 2010 7:02 PM | Report abuse

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