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Dem memo: No, we won't lose the House

In another sign that House Dem leaders are eager to silence talk about them losing the House, top Democrats are circulating a memo on Capitol Hill that lays out a detailed case for why Republicans will come up short this fall.

The argument in the DCCC memo, which was sent over by a source and opens a window on Dem thinking about the political landscape in a difficult year, is two-fold.The key points: First, Republicans simply can't put enough seats in play to win the House. Second, the Tea Party has become a massive liability nationally in multiple unappreciated ways.

Here's the memo's argument about the number of seats in play:

Republicans will need to win 39 seats to take back the House. Democrats will win at least four Republican seats (the best opportunities include: LA-02, HI-01, IL-10, DE-AL, FL-25). As a result, the real number of seats Republicans will have to pick up to win a majority is at least 43. To win 43 seats, the NRCC would need to put 70 to 80 seats in play. The NRCC have simply not put that many Republicans seats in play and do not have the resources or caliber of candidates to do so.

The memo adds that wave elections are largely fueled by open seats, and that there aren't enough open seats this time around:

This cycle, there are only 20 Democratic open seats, including several that are in safe districts. If Republicans have a great election night, they would still only win 50 percent of the Democratic open seats. Conservatively, Republicans would then need to beat 35 Democratic incumbents to win the House - which is simply not possible given the Republicans resources deficit.

And here's the memo's argument about the Tea Party:

The Tea Party has presented three problems for Republicans. The most glaring problem is where the Tea Party candidate has defeated the moderate (and more electable) Republican candidate. Second, Republican candidates are being forced to take unpopular extreme positions to satisfy the ideological base to avoid defeat in their primaries. Third, we are seeing numerous Tea Party candidates run as third party candidates which is splitting the Republican vote...

There are more than 100 conservative third party candidates on the ballot. This is important because it lowers the win number for the Democratic candidate.

Lots of folks have argued that talk about the GOP winning back the House could be helpful to Dems by dramatizing the stakes of the midterms. But this memo suggests that Dem leaders recognize that such talk needs to be neutralized quickly, lest it damage morale and dampen fundraising. At any rate, this is how Dem strategists view the evolving map right now.

By Greg Sargent  |  July 28, 2010; 12:10 PM ET
Categories:  2010 elections , House Dems , House GOPers , Tea Party  
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Next: Halperin says it: The problem is right wing media

Comments

If I were Dems, I would tout that new report claiming if no Fed Action, TARP or Stimulus were enacted, we could have lost an additional 8,5 million jobs on top of the already lost 8 million and the economy would have shrunk by 5% and we would be seeing depreciation right now, which would have been horrible.

Make it clear, that the do nothing approach of the Republicans would have sunk this nation into a Depression.

Take that one to the polls.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | July 28, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

If Bush could say, to less than universal derision, that there were no terrorist attacks from 9/12 on, the Dems certainly can say we'd be Great Depression II if not for their actions.

Posted by: joeff | July 28, 2010 12:31 PM | Report abuse

Dems on offense? Could it be? How awesome. I also like the Tea Party Republican Contract. Glad to see the Dems striking first. This is not a GAME to be PLAYED... This is a WAR which needs to be FOUGHT.

I'm with ya Mike. Republican economic policies nearly led to the wholesale destruction of more than 16 million jobs. Striking. I hope that story picks up momentum.

Posted by: Ethan2010 | July 28, 2010 12:32 PM | Report abuse

MY LAMENT OF THE DAY:

Why Has No Abraham Lincoln Emerged From The African American Community, in order to Emancipate All Those Sorely Oppressed White Tea Party Members?!

Until Such a Black Lincoln Comes Along:

I recommend that Black Americans set up an underground railroad network, to help White Tea Party members escape to freedom.

Posted by: Liam-still | July 28, 2010 12:41 PM | Report abuse

this seems to indicate that the dems recognize that they need to point up the teabaggeryness of the rightwing republicans. with the additional video of teabaggers gone wild that's sure to come to light between now and november, there won't be any lack of material to drive this point home.

Posted by: blahgblogwordpresscom | July 28, 2010 12:54 PM | Report abuse

joeff, very good point.

Posted by: SDJeff | July 28, 2010 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Have you seen this chart of US incomes from 1979 to 2007? Please spread it far and wide. This clearly shows that they "trickle down" economic theory is really "trickle on the Middle Class."

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e20134859705d3970c-popup

The chart came from here:

http://lanekenworthy.net/2010/07/20/the-best-inequality-graph-updated/

Posted by: suekzoo1 | July 28, 2010 12:56 PM | Report abuse

"I recommend that Black Americans set up an underground railroad network, to help White Tea Party members escape to freedom."

LOL

Posted by: SDJeff | July 28, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Liam, no fair making me spooge my lunch all over my work keyboard! (God, that was hilarious!)

Posted by: suekzoo1 | July 28, 2010 1:00 PM | Report abuse

there's also this piece at the independent about the online unemployed organizing politically:

http://washingtonindependent.com/92821/the-unemployed-organized-online-look-to-the-midterms

"“Even Republicans say they aren’t voting Republican anymore,” the soft-spoken former technical writer says. “You have millions of unemployed people out there. If even half of them voted, they could swing a nationwide election.”"

Posted by: blahgblogwordpresscom | July 28, 2010 1:03 PM | Report abuse

Remember that Gallup Poll some thought was maybe a fluke? Well, looks like Dems still hold a substantial lead suggesting it wasn't a total outlier.

"emocrats have a 48% to 44% advantage for the week of July 19-25 in Gallup tracking of registered voters' preferences for the 2010 congressional elections. This marks the second straight week in which Democrats have held an edge of at least four percentage points."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/141557/Democrats-Maintain-Advantage-Generic-Ballot.aspx

Posted by: mikefromArlington | July 28, 2010 1:13 PM | Report abuse

Mike, that's a nice poll but when I checked yesterday, Gallup is the only major pollster showing dem advantage.

This doesn't worry me. People are upset and they have a right to be, but when the choices are presented to them in November, republicans will look much worse.

Posted by: SDJeff | July 28, 2010 1:18 PM | Report abuse

GOP prepared to fight to the death... over oil corporation liability!

They want to tie liability to... get this... WATER DEPTH! Oy vey.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/07/gop-prepared-to-oppose-dem-energy-bill-over-oil-spill-liability.php

Posted by: Ethan2010 | July 28, 2010 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Sue, that's our own damn fault. Most of us only work 40-45 hours a week. Some of those 1% work 60 hours a week! So if they work 1.5 times as much as us, it stands to reason they deserve to be paid 100 times as much as us.

Plus they're the ones bribing politicians to write laws favoring their businesses.

Posted by: SDJeff | July 28, 2010 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Here is my pollyanna naive thought or perhaps I should call it a wish for the day.
Wouldn't it be wonderful if last summer's lunacy and all that has followed has made the American voter so weary of name calling and slogans that issues once again move to the forefront. What a concept.

Here it is in an nutshell...positions on..

Social Security/Medicare Dems created it and continue to back it. TeaPartiers like Rand Paul and Sharron Angle..eliminate Social Security and Medicare

Taxes....Obama/Dems let the Bush Tax cuts for the wealthy expire. Marco Rubio and the Tea baggers...EXTEND the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy...kill the stimulus and the tax cuts for the MIDDLE CLASS.

Econonmy..R's more trickle down supply side failure...D's continue targeting jobs bills and begin to work on the deficit in earnest...not just talk about it like R's.

Jobs..Contrast all the jobs lost under the Bush Administration...he presided over the first decade of net loss of private jobs since the Great Depression. While pointing out they are not satisfied the Dems can make the claim they have at least turned the corner and use the economic data Mike From Arlington put up earlier.

Posted by: rukidding7 | July 28, 2010 1:23 PM | Report abuse

@Suekzoo Thanks so much for the inequality graph. I've bookmarked the original.

This inequality is what frightens me the most since study after study shows that economies of various types perform poorly when the income inequality reaches a a certain point. We were at that point right before the Great Depression and we are at it again.

And Sue I don't know if you noted but one of the commenters on the original graph made a great observation. It's actually worse than the graph indicates. To the degree that Government helps with things like healthcare, education etc it effects the bottom line of the bottom 90% of us.
We should have easily passed Medicare for all since survey after survey shows the public was ready for it.

Posted by: rukidding7 | July 28, 2010 1:32 PM | Report abuse

Whistling past the graveyard here, doncha think?

The Democrats are going to suffer. It is a question of how much blood gets let in this election.

and I love this:
"Second, Republican candidates are being forced to take unpopular extreme positions to satisfy the ideological base to avoid defeat in their primaries. "

Here's a definition of "unpopular extreme positions": those positions with which Nancy Pelosi disagrees.

Posted by: skipsailing28 | July 28, 2010 1:37 PM | Report abuse

Oh look, everybody! It's SKIPPY!

Posted by: suekzoo1 | July 28, 2010 1:40 PM | Report abuse

@sue and he's as fact free as ever...

Posted by: blahgblogwordpresscom | July 28, 2010 1:46 PM | Report abuse

Ha! Look! It's Skippy!

AP: Judge blocks controversial sections of Arizona's new immigration law

A federal judge on Wednesday blocked the most controversial parts of Arizona's immigration law from taking effect, delivering a last-minute victory to opponents of the crackdown.

The overall law will still take effect Thursday, but without the provisions that angered opponents — including sections that required officers to check a person's immigration status while enforcing other laws.

The judge also put on hold parts of the law that required immigrants to carry their papers at all times, and made it illegal for undocumented workers to solicit employment in public places.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2010/07/judge_blocks_parts_of_arizona_immigration_law.php

That's what I'm talkin bout.

Posted by: Ethan2010 | July 28, 2010 1:47 PM | Report abuse

"Here's a definition of "unpopular extreme positions": those positions with which Nancy Pelosi disagrees."

So you admit she represents the mainstream. Fine, you get the extreme right, we'll take the rest.

Posted by: SDJeff | July 28, 2010 1:49 PM | Report abuse

All, kudos to Mark Halperin for really nailing it in terms of the right wing media and Sherrod affair:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/07/halperin_says_it_the_problem_i.html

Posted by: Greg Sargent | July 28, 2010 1:57 PM | Report abuse

In other news, pharmaceutical expert* Andrew Breitbart and women's rights advocate David Vitter "disagree" with the FDA's Oncology Drugs Advisory Committee on their ruling that cancer drug Avastin lacks benefit when compared to the drug's risks... I'm sure our friends will provide scientific evidence that they know more than the ODAC in 3... 2... 1...

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/07/vitter-breitbart-revive-death-panel-smear-in-attack-on-fda-breast-cancer-drug-decision.php

* h/t Beutler

Posted by: Ethan2010 | July 28, 2010 1:59 PM | Report abuse

"I recommend that Black Americans set up an underground railroad network, to help White Tea Party members escape to freedom."

Where are they going to go, though, Liam? They can't go to Canada because of the socialist health care system and they certainly can't go to Mexico because of all the brown people.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | July 28, 2010 2:01 PM | Report abuse

Make it clear, that the do nothing approach of the Republicans would have sunk this nation into a Depression.

Take that one to the polls.

Posted by: mikefromArlington

_________________________________________

Mike - I am with you 100% on this one!

I have said for months - it looks like Democrats are running away from stimulus measures because they are not polling well but they are not polling well because Democrats have allowed republicans to shape the debate on the stimulus which causes people to buy the republican PR and not like the stimulus which causes it to not poll well which is causing too many Democrats to run away from it.

The conservative crowd likes to throw out this theory or that theory which they claim "prove" their strategy - essentially, cut taxes for businesses and the rich more while cutting social programs that aid the poor - will return us to prosperity overnight.

Maybe the claim that these are "studies" (instead of theories dreampt up in isolation from actual events they actually are) makes people think this is all valid.

These are, however, little more than parlor games. These are "theories" based on magical realism not supported by fact or actual events.

While the economy and the causes of the recession are complex and do not lend itself as well to sound bites like, for example, "drill, baby, drill". But Americans are not as stupid as republicans want us all to think. They can handle complex ideas.

It is time for Democrats to step up and remind the American people what the differences are between being brave and taking action and merely saying "no" to everything just to try to get votes.

The truth is the republicans have no ideas. They just have media attention.

Posted by: TOMMYBASEBALL | July 28, 2010 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Yes, the judge did some damage. Here's my concern: at some point the American people will, one way or another, withdraw their consent to be governed by this government.

Decisions such as this don't improve the attitude of the Americans toward their government.

Just yesterday some liberal advised me that the senate should pass the stifling campaign finance law because it polled well. OK the Arizona law polls well, where's the liberal support for it.

I am increasingly concerned that America is heading toward an ugly day of reckoning.

And I love how liberals get musclebound by trying to put words in my mouth. I never said that Pelosi was main stream. Never. But hey fantasy thy name is liberalism

Posted by: skipsailing28 | July 28, 2010 2:05 PM | Report abuse

shorter skippy: vote for teabagging rightwing republicans or we're gonna shewt you up good.

second amendment remedies?

Posted by: blahgblogwordpresscom | July 28, 2010 2:16 PM | Report abuse

SDJeff - It is important to note that Gallup uses a methodology that involves person to person contact.

Most of the commonly reported polls - Rasmussen in particular - primarily use robo-calls to gather information.

The issue with robo-calls is that the opt-out factor is high and response tends to come from more motivated voters, skewing the science.

What is also ignored by a lot of the media is the margin of error. This can be significant. A poll showing a 3% separation with a 6% margin of error, for instance, is meaningless. The media, however, will report this as a valid result.

Posted by: TOMMYBASEBALL | July 28, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

No, that's not what I'm saying, but blah, thank you so much for providing today's reminder of the contempt liberals feel for their fellow Americans.

It is much appreciated.

Posted by: skipsailing28 | July 28, 2010 2:21 PM | Report abuse

the republcians do not need to win the house to ensure that bad legislation unpopular among the american people does not get passed through congress. all they need is to do is win 30 seats in the house, and a couple senate seats. that way, pelosi is dealing with a razon thin margin of dems who will then be put on notice of the public's willingness to send them packing should they continue to disrespect the american people. plus, the senate will not simply be able to target one or two republican votes with shaddy quid pro qous.

normally i would defunding obamacare is essential but the supreme court will clean up that mess anyway.

Posted by: dummypants | July 28, 2010 2:23 PM | Report abuse

No, that's not what I'm saying, but blah, thank you so much for providing today's reminder of the contempt liberals feel for their fellow Americans.
*******

for example, the president thinks all arizona police officers are racists against hispanics, even though probably 50% of them are hispanics themselves!

the president twsists himself into a pretzel trying to defend his immature and ignorant positions!

Posted by: dummypants | July 28, 2010 2:25 PM | Report abuse

"the president thinks all arizona police officers are racists against hispanics"

I guess I missed where Obama said this. Can you provide a link to the exact quote?

Wait what am I thinking? You're just a liar, why would you have proof of anything?

Posted by: SDJeff | July 28, 2010 2:47 PM | Report abuse

skippy and dummy,

obama and the dems are doing what they campaigned on before they won the elections. and skippy, along with a *lot* of rightwing republican teabaggers, is talking about shewtin up lib'ruls because of it.

everyone knows what you're saying, but sure, try to deny it.

Posted by: blahgblogwordpresscom | July 28, 2010 2:52 PM | Report abuse

"I recommend that Black Americans set up an underground railroad network, to help White Tea Party members escape to freedom."

Where are they going to go, though, Liam? They can't go to Canada because of the socialist health care system and they certainly can't go to Mexico because of all the brown people.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | July 28, 2010 2:01 PM
...................

They would find a safe haven in Palintopia, formerly known as Alaska!!!

Posted by: Liam-still | July 28, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

I see skippy has changed his tune about who liberals feel contempt for. Yes, many liberals find bitter, hateful, drooling, slackjawed, ignorant, rightwingnut morons contemptible. BFD.

Many of those rightwingnuts also feel contempt for liberals, who are also "fellow Americans."

So what exactly is your point, skiptard?

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | July 28, 2010 2:58 PM | Report abuse

"If I were Dems, I would tout that new report claiming if no Fed Action, TARP or Stimulus were enacted, we could have lost an additional 8,5 million jobs on top of the already lost 8 million and the economy would have shrunk by 5%"

Historically, has running on a "not as bad as it could have been" platform ever been successful? That's for the Sunday shows, maybe, but not the campaign.

Posted by: Kevin_Willis | July 28, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

yes, the name calling and expressions of contempt do so much to demonstrate the intellectual capacity of America's liberals.

It is sad, pathetic really, that the folks here represent the cream of the liberal crop. No doubt Mr Sargent is thrilled with the intellectual quality of his most admiring fans.

Posted by: skipsailing28 | July 28, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse

skippy,

you have shown yourself to be not so much intellectually dishonest as intellectually absent. all you do is throw insults and repeat rightwing republican teabagger talking points that are, indeed, worthy of contempt.

you speak of the equivalent of angle's 'second amendment remedies' and yet you criticize other people's discourse.

Posted by: blahgblogwordpresscom | July 28, 2010 3:32 PM | Report abuse

Well it just goes to show that Democrats not only LIE to US they LIE to themselves. 80+ in November will be the number and I thank the Judge in AZ today for keeping that issue alive through November as well!

Posted by: Jaded2 | July 28, 2010 3:34 PM | Report abuse

hey, blah. this states my concern much more clearly. This is just for you. Be careful when you read it, you just might go blind:

"That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security. "

At some point, I fear, Americans will either assume the yoke that liberals wish to place on them, or replace this government with something else.

Liberalism rests on a single pillar. That is the notion that Americans will continue to work hard and then turn the fruits of their labor over to their masters who will then distribute it as they see fit.

Long run, I don't see that working out well here. Americans are fundamentally opposed to much of what liberalism champions. Couple that with the demise of the socialist states in Europe and suddenly you guys have a tough sell.

In spite of what blah states, I'm not advocating violence. I am expressing concern that it is eminently possible if we continue on a leftward course.

My suggestion is that you examine your need for rank denial and think about the long haul.

Posted by: skipsailing28 | July 28, 2010 3:35 PM | Report abuse

oops - hit submit too early

you have shown that you don't want to engage in substantive discussion but instead prefer insults, (false) generalizations and demonstrable lies.

and, as noted above, you clearly hold in contempt those you disagree with.

repeating rightwing republican talking points and teabag rally sign messages will not get you much respect at sites outside the cocoon of the rightwing republican echo chamber.

Posted by: blahgblogwordpresscom | July 28, 2010 3:37 PM | Report abuse

..The argument in the DCCC memo, which was sent over by a source...

Raise a few questions:

Does this mean that the DCCC is now officially using journolist to plant press stories?

Did ALL the journolist members get there own copy?

Is the DCCC going to officially name Republicans to be labeled as racist or do they want the journolist members to just keeping selecting them at random?

Posted by: TECWRITE | July 28, 2010 3:40 PM | Report abuse

skippy,

spare me the lecture on intellectual honesty. what exactly are the *specific* policies that constitute the 'liberal yoke'?

remember, the teabaggers are just rightwing republican descendants of the birchers and the america firsters who wanted us to stay out of wwii.

they said social security would lead to socialism. they said medicare would lead to socialism. but now no serious politician who has a chance of winning will come out against either.

actually, they were right -- those programs are socialist. but americans like them.

democracy sure is pesky, isn't it?

and you're being transparently disingenuous about bringing up the possibility of violence if things don't go the way the rightwing republican teabaggers want.

Posted by: blahgblogwordpresscom | July 28, 2010 3:47 PM | Report abuse

oh, wow. it's jadedbypolitics from redstate.

Posted by: blahgblogwordpresscom | July 28, 2010 3:51 PM | Report abuse

Panic usual leads to DENIAL!!!

Dems can blame blame blame - associate the Repubs with Tea Party what ever lies they can dream up.
Progressives have taken over the Democratic party and overplayed their hand with policies no one wants in an attempt to protect us from our selves - please - after all they know what is best for us?
Here's some history especially progressives conveniently forget as they are calling everyone else racists.

Progressivism = Totalitarianism

It was DEMOCRATS that institutionalized slavery.
It was DEMOCRATS who commissioned medical professionals to proclaim that "excessive amounts of carbon in the bodies of Negroes" was the reason for their skin color and inferiority.
It was DEMOCRATS that did not like the 1860 election of abolitionist REPUBLICAN Lincoln.
It was DEMOCRATS that seceded from the Union before he was even sworn in.
It was DEMOCRATS that did not like the outcome of that war so they set up a shadow government in many states, mainly the South, but many in the North too.
It was DEMOCRATS that formed their own army, the KKK. REPUBLICANS were hanged by the hundreds right alongside the blacks, usually in the same tree. It was DEMOCRATS that set up Jim Crow laws in the South to further subjugate the blacks.
It was DEMOCRAT President Wilson that conducted several private screening in the White House of the film "Birth of A Nation", the most savage racist product I have ever heard of.
It was also DEMOCRAT President Wilson that so admired the Progressive movement's Margret Sanger's eugenics research (number of black babies aborted far exceeds those of other demographics)
It was also DEMOCRAT President Wilson that re-segregated the military after it had been fully integrated by the Republicans in the 1870s.
It was DEMOCRATS that fawned all over Hitler, and his National Socialist Democrat Party and prevented the US from preparing for WW2.
It was DEMOCRATS that blocked three attempts during the Eisenhower Administration for comprehensive civil-rights legislation.
It was DEMOCRATS that blocked the doors to black school children in Topeka, Little Rock, Montgomery and elsewhere.
It was DEMOCRATS Bull Conner and George Wallace that loosed the fire hoses. It was REPUBLICAN Eisenhower that sent Federal troops to stop DEMOCRATS ONLY with the force of arms!
It is DEMOCRATS that encourage black voters with handouts a life of bare subsistence on welfare - the new plantation mentality was institutionalized.

Progressivism = Totalitarianism

Posted by: kitman3 | July 28, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse

Panic usual leads to DENIAL!!!

Dems can blame blame blame - associate the Repubs with Tea Party what ever lies they can dream up.
Progressives have taken over the Democratic party and overplayed their hand with policies no one wants in an attempt to protect us from our selves - please - after all they know what is best for us?
Here's some history especially progressives conveniently forget as they are calling everyone else racists.

Progressivism = Totalitarianism

It was DEMOCRATS that institutionalized slavery.
It was DEMOCRATS who commissioned medical professionals to proclaim that "excessive amounts of carbon in the bodies of Negroes" was the reason for their skin color and inferiority.
It was DEMOCRATS that did not like the 1860 election of abolitionist REPUBLICAN Lincoln.
It was DEMOCRATS that seceded from the Union before he was even sworn in.
It was DEMOCRATS that did not like the outcome of that war so they set up a shadow government in many states, mainly the South, but many in the North too.
It was DEMOCRATS that formed their own army, the KKK. REPUBLICANS were hanged by the hundreds right alongside the blacks, usually in the same tree. It was DEMOCRATS that set up Jim Crow laws in the South to further subjugate the blacks.
It was DEMOCRAT President Wilson that conducted several private screening in the White House of the film "Birth of A Nation", the most savage racist product I have ever heard of.
It was also DEMOCRAT President Wilson that so admired the Progressive movement's Margret Sanger's eugenics research (number of black babies aborted far exceeds those of other demographics)
It was also DEMOCRAT President Wilson that re-segregated the military after it had been fully integrated by the Republicans in the 1870s.
It was DEMOCRATS that fawned all over Hitler, and his National Socialist Democrat Party and prevented the US from preparing for WW2.
It was DEMOCRATS that blocked three attempts during the Eisenhower Administration for comprehensive civil-rights legislation.
It was DEMOCRATS that blocked the doors to black school children in Topeka, Little Rock, Montgomery and elsewhere.
It was DEMOCRATS Bull Conner and George Wallace that loosed the fire hoses. It was REPUBLICAN Eisenhower that sent Federal troops to stop DEMOCRATS ONLY with the force of arms!
It is DEMOCRATS that encourage black voters with handouts a life of bare subsistence on welfare - the new plantation mentality was institutionalized.

Progressivism = Totalitarianism

Posted by: kitman3 | July 28, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

kit,

please post and repost your screed on as many sites as possible. do at least 50 a day.

Posted by: blahgblogwordpresscom | July 28, 2010 4:02 PM | Report abuse

blah, there is no reason to pretend. You really don't want to converse with me. If you did really want an intellectually honest debate you'd stop using the derrogative term "teabagger" and other such slurs. You see the journolist revelations showed us the depths of the left's depravity.

If all you have is insults, why should I bother with you?

I've posted facts here repeatedly. Its just the facts I post don't support your positions. So therefore you term them lies. Sorry bud, but its a two way street.

My positions are quite clear. You don't like them. I don't care. I also don't care what you or any of the other nasty name callers here think of me. It matters not to me. I don't lose any sleep over it.

I'm here for a couple of reasons:
(1) to understand my enemy.

(2) to sharpen my arguments.

(3) To vent.

(4) To gather information about what liberals are thinking and doing.

My goal is simple, the defeat of the American left. Winning requires that I study the opposition.

You make a great research subject. I believ you to be typical of the current crop of American liberals.

Posted by: skipsailing28 | July 28, 2010 4:08 PM | Report abuse

Greg,

Your argument showed high marks right up until the part where the memo should say "...there are X amount of seats are in play." It says in order for the GOP to win the house it would need to win 50% of the incumbent Dem seats that are "in play" The memo 'cleverley' leaves out how many they think are in play.

In its place they say the GOP resources, and quality candidates are why teh GOP can't win 50% of the seats in play. I do think the voters will decide.
I struggled with the 'most waves are when there are tons of open seats and there are only 20 right now' thing; BUT, if I do the math on 1994s sweep, there were 20-25 seats thought "safe" by Dems that were won by Reps. As in 2006, a number of "safe" GOP seats went Dem. If I were a betting man, anyone of those Blue dogs that were swept in in 2006, better hang on for a wild ride.

Sadly, the best thing Dems have going for them is the Tea Party, in that 3rd party candidates might split the conservative vote meaning a lower win number for Dems. However, last I looked, 21% of Tea partiers were classified as Democrats. Only 40% or so were Republicans.

Whats my point? I think the Dems are living in a dream world. They have so squandered what could have been the greatest tenure ever, by falling back on old political agendas, instead of connecting with Americans. I watched "The West Wing" this morning on Bravo. I wonder how many elected democrats know what the price of a gallon of milk is?

You can go agaisnt public opinion once, maybe twice, but EVERY initiative has been against public opinion. I'll be the first to admit that the Dems could save their bacon unless the GOP comes up with some aggressive plans Sept I wager). lets face it, unemployment, the debt, the gulf fiasco, added to the seemingly unawareness that this adminstration is representing....This looks really ugly. I think the experience factoer from 08 is really coming to roost. Obama has none, and his OJT ain't going very well.

Posted by: foot0108 | July 28, 2010 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Greg,

Your argument showed high marks right up until the part where the memo should say "...there are X amount of seats are in play." It says in order for the GOP to win the house it would need to win 50% of the incumbent Dem seats that are "in play" The memo 'cleverley' leaves out how many they think are in play.

In its place they say the GOP resources, and quality candidates are why teh GOP can't win 50% of the seats in play. I do think the voters will decide.
I struggled with the 'most waves are when there are tons of open seats and there are only 20 right now' thing; BUT, if I do the math on 1994s sweep, there were 20-25 seats thought "safe" by Dems that were won by Reps. As in 2006, a number of "safe" GOP seats went Dem. If I were a betting man, anyone of those Blue dogs that were swept in in 2006, better hang on for a wild ride.

Sadly, the best thing Dems have going for them is the Tea Party, in that 3rd party candidates might split the conservative vote meaning a lower win number for Dems. However, last I looked, 21% of Tea partiers were classified as Democrats. Only 40% or so were Republicans.

Whats my point? I think the Dems are living in a dream world. They have so squandered what could have been the greatest tenure ever, by falling back on old political agendas, instead of connecting with Americans. I watched "The West Wing" this morning on Bravo. I wonder how many elected democrats know what the price of a gallon of milk is?

You can go agaisnt public opinion once, maybe twice, but EVERY initiative has been against public opinion. I'll be the first to admit that the Dems could save their bacon unless the GOP comes up with some aggressive plans Sept I wager). lets face it, unemployment, the debt, the gulf fiasco, added to the seemingly unawareness that this adminstration is representing....This looks really ugly. I think the experience factoer from 08 is really coming to roost. Obama has none, and his OJT ain't going very well.

Posted by: foot0108 | July 28, 2010 4:26 PM | Report abuse

Greg,

Your argument showed high marks right up until the part where the memo should say "...there are X amount of seats are in play." It says in order for the GOP to win the house it would need to win 50% of the incumbent Dem seats that are "in play" The memo 'cleverley' leaves out how many they think are in play.

In its place they say the GOP resources, and quality candidates are why teh GOP can't win 50% of the seats in play. I do think the voters will decide.
I struggled with the 'most waves are when there are tons of open seats and there are only 20 right now' thing; BUT, if I do the math on 1994s sweep, there were 20-25 seats thought "safe" by Dems that were won by Reps. As in 2006, a number of "safe" GOP seats went Dem. If I were a betting man, anyone of those Blue dogs that were swept in in 2006, better hang on for a wild ride.

Sadly, the best thing Dems have going for them is the Tea Party, in that 3rd party candidates might split the conservative vote meaning a lower win number for Dems. However, last I looked, 21% of Tea partiers were classified as Democrats. Only 40% or so were Republicans.

Whats my point? I think the Dems are living in a dream world. They have so squandered what could have been the greatest tenure ever, by falling back on old political agendas, instead of connecting with Americans. I watched "The West Wing" this morning on Bravo. I wonder how many elected democrats know what the price of a gallon of milk is?

You can go agaisnt public opinion once, maybe twice, but EVERY initiative has been against public opinion. I'll be the first to admit that the Dems could save their bacon unless the GOP comes up with some aggressive plans Sept I wager). lets face it, unemployment, the debt, the gulf fiasco, added to the seemingly unawareness that this adminstration is representing....This looks really ugly. I think the experience factoer from 08 is really coming to roost. Obama has none, and his OJT ain't going very well.

Posted by: foot0108 | July 28, 2010 4:27 PM | Report abuse

Boy, I thought Libs were the ones that are to show tolerance to ALL in our society.

So you show tolerance to all except those with conservative views.

When you call members of the TEA Party (Taxed Enough Already) Teabaggers you only deminish yourself by using a derogatory phrase to try and demean those who at heart want to preserve and defend the constitution.

By the way - Teabagging as you are using the term would be a sexual act performed by Straight Women or Gay Men. Are you not being intolerant to Gender and sexual orintation when using this term. Where is the LIBERAL tolerance?

I think the politicians have so polarized our country based on party affiliation that people are now against the other guy just because he calls himself a Democrat or a Republican without looking at the ideas to see if they would be good for the country. No wonder so many people are calling themseves Independent or Libertarian because it is easier than explaining why they are a Democrat or a Republican.

I voted only Democrat from 1980 to 1992 when I voted for Ross Perot. Back then the country was in a recession and we could see how the Federal Goverment was wasting tax payor money. I think this issue is again in the minds of the American voter 1.4 trillion deficit and nothing to show for it - you will be suprised at how many will not be voting for anyone with a D beside their name. This judge's ruling in Arizona today just stoked the fire a lot more.

I, and many others in Georgia (which by the way was always a solid Democratic State) have moved so far to the right you will not see Dems in control of this state for many a generation.

There are about 35+ state houses and Governors that going to be GOP this November just as re-districting begins. As the VP would say "This is a F...ing Big Deal"

The Dems will lose the House this year - though my the slimist of margins - Nancy Pelosi is disliked by 95% of the population and she will no longer be the speaker come January 2011.

It is time the politicians actually serve the country for what is the best for all instead of what will get me elected or a hugh campaign donation.

It is time for a balanced budget and term limits for congress amendments to the constitution. Congressmen are suppose to be servants of the people not servants of themselves or their pet projects and causes - many of which are "lost causes" and bridges to no where.

Posted by: Liberty-Freedom | July 28, 2010 4:28 PM | Report abuse

Wow, I didn't realize democrats really were this stupid. Let them keep convincing themselves that it is all smooth sailing for them.

I think I lost a few IQ points reading the responses in this thread.

Posted by: standard_guy | July 28, 2010 4:41 PM | Report abuse

Oh, please keep calling white-haired little old ladies "teabaggers" and "racists". They love it when you do that. And please do run on the salutory effects of TARP, Porkulus, jobs "saved", GM, Chrysler, AIG, ObamaCare, racial quotas in FinReg and, as we learned today, the fact that the SEC is now exempt from the FOIA. You guys make sure you mention all of that. See you in November.

Posted by: fmcdermott1 | July 28, 2010 4:42 PM | Report abuse

Ah the Greg, Journo, WAPO dream lists: their socialist pacifist anti-American Dem reps win the House. Yipe. Today's AZ decision will put even more SW districts into play you dopes. Dem progressive liberal nutroots cannot continue to lie, support everything a majority of the nation knows is un-Const., and that the policies like bankrupting the nation, no private sector jobs, cap and trade phoniness, amnesty, so called fiscal reform when not dealing with Fannie and Freddie, are issues are going to be popular with voters in Nov. The Dems do not think out of the box here. They think Obama promotes unity but two Dem pollsters in the WSJ hit it right: he and the Dems are class, wealth, race and multicultural dividers not people who want to see America on an economic or national security growth spurt. Sorry, Greg, your wet dream supporting this DNNC speculation just makes you look like the DNC flacker you are.

Posted by: phillyfanatic | July 28, 2010 4:46 PM | Report abuse

Don't worry Democrats.

You are not going to lose control of the House of Representatives.

Relax.

In fact, I want you all to put politics out of your mind from now until the New Year.

That Memo from the DCCC is as good as gold.

If I were you, I would print out that memo, put it in a nice frame and bolt it to the wall so that anytime anyone tells you otherwise, whether it's a poll or economic data or a news report, you can look up at that wall and take comfort that this memo was written.

Posted by: Washington13 | July 28, 2010 4:58 PM | Report abuse

Unencumber – Vote out the incumbent

Individuals for Unencumberment by Unemployment for Incumbents
I for U by U for I
We can have Revolution – Bailey Savings and Loan Style


http://sovereignthink.wordpress.com/2010/03/14/unencumber-vote-out-the-incumbent/

Posted by: sovereignthink | July 28, 2010 5:18 PM | Report abuse

Actually, I am a Tea Party Democrat. Branding the Tea Party as "Republican" would be in accurate.

For example, in the primary 28% of Democrats in NV voted anyone but candidate Reid, and 25% voted for the Democrat running against him, although no one had heard of him.

What the DNCC doesn't understand? Some of those Pink Slips went to them from Democrats.
Not all Democrats agree with this President's agenda.

But the DNCC can keep "branding" the Tea Party. We are awake, we will never sleep again, and we KNOW we are the only ones going to "drain the swamp of corruption."

Certainly Nancy Pelosi didn't do it. Certainly Obama has not done it. But we Americans are a hardly lot, and we KNOW we can do it.

I see November from here. Do you?

Posted by: Belle6 | July 28, 2010 5:19 PM | Report abuse

"Good judgement comes from experience and often experience comes from bad judgement"
-------Eva Mae Brown-------
The bad judgement of the American poeple put us in this mess but we will rectify that in November with our experience

Posted by: wbindner | July 28, 2010 5:57 PM | Report abuse

"Actually, I am a Tea Party Democrat"

And I am a Tea Party platypus.

Posted by: Ethan2010 | July 28, 2010 6:07 PM | Report abuse

Kit, democrats were the party for racists until the 60s, when the last of the southern democrats abandoned the party over their commitment to equal rights for blacks.

You could replace DEMOCRATS with SOUTHERNERS in most of those sentences and it would still be accurate. Of course, the democratic party is fast disappearing in the south because many southerners still don't see what the big deal is about institutionalized racism

Posted by: SDJeff | July 28, 2010 6:14 PM | Report abuse

if i was a Dem, i'd run like hell from this delusional failure of a president. it's only gonna get worse, and his numbers are only going to go down. he's incompetent, and worse, he's a narcissist, so he can't EVER change or respond to data suggesting that he is missing a nuance, that he is out of step. all he does is talk. looks at the teleprompter, and talks.....

Posted by: subframer | July 28, 2010 6:25 PM | Report abuse

You know your majority is toast when you have to keep reassuring yourself it isn't. And it is hilarious to read idiotic comments from idiots like Ethan claiming that everything that has gone bad under Barack Obama is the fault of the Republican Party. Sorry, but Obama's hilarious and pathetic approval ratings are evidence that no one outside of Obamabots on echo chamber blogs like this one believe such nonsense anymore. Heck, if things get any worse, Obama will have to schedule yet another vacation.

Posted by: Bob65 | July 28, 2010 6:45 PM | Report abuse

The analysis would make sense in a normal year. Reid, Pelosi and the Democrats are despised by enough people to make this an abnormal year.

Many traditional Democrats don't like the excessive spending and debt. Some will vote Republican but a larger number will just stay home.

They will get the liberal/progressive wing of the Democrat party fired up for this election, But without Independents and traditional Democrats, they don't have the numbers. They will be toast.

What is less clear, is whether the GOP will seize the opportunity or return to their discredited ways.

Posted by: Xdem | July 28, 2010 7:05 PM | Report abuse

Wanna bet?

Posted by: decodenny | July 28, 2010 7:46 PM | Report abuse

Wanna bet?

Posted by: decodenny | July 28, 2010 7:47 PM | Report abuse

I think if you conducted a poll, you would find that most "teabaggers" were actually liberal Democrats who find their dates in gay bars and engage in that sort of activity. Supporters of the Tea Party, on the other hand, are probably registered as Independents and Republicans, with a number of fed-up moderate Dems. Why is it that the libs can utilize derogatory sobriquets with impunity, yet conservatives are crucified for the same thing? Oh, because name-calling is the only tool they have at their disposal, except, perhaps, their own and their friends'. Hypocrites. And intellectual lightweights.

Posted by: elephant4life | July 28, 2010 8:17 PM | Report abuse

The American people reject the "progressive" (socialist) policies and agenda of Obumble and the Dems by a 2 to 1 margin. Not only that, but they are chompin' at the bit to vote against a Dem in November.

The only way that the Dems hold the House is with voter fraud, which is very likely. The corrupt Holder DOJ will not enforce regulations requiring states to purge their voter registration rolls of dead people or people who have moved out of state, and they will not protect the votes of military personnel overseas. That's not even counting their voter fraud specialists, ACORN and SEIU.

As Obama's hero Saul Alinsky said, the end justifies the means. Dems will lie, cheat, steal, and defraud, if that's what it takes to prevail. Dems cannot win fairly in November.

Posted by: samadams25 | July 28, 2010 8:26 PM | Report abuse

Neither party is impressive, but the one thing I am sure of is that the Repubs have respect for the Constitution and self-determination. I wonder how long it will take for the Obamabots to realize they have surrendered their basic freedoms to bureaucrats and Obama's anti-American associates. Considering this country offers the best opportunity (I didn't say perfect) for anyone to succeed, it is astounding to hear cheers as Obama
proceeds to dismantle the economy
step by step. How could anyone
prefer handouts from the government
over freedom and a chance to earn
their own way? Obama has takenover
health care, finance, and is on his way
to grabbing energy and the internet,
trampling your privacy and rights
along the way. But half of this country still doesn't get it. What happened in Cuba, Venezuela,
Russia when the government controlled all of the above? Real growth was over as incompetent
bureaucrats mismanaged or stole
the country into disaster. Chavez just
nationalized food!!! I don't know if any of you have been audited by the IRS, but what you learn in the first 5 minutes is that the nerd on the other side of the table has complete control of your financial future. A deduction is whatever he says it is. Appeals are
out of reach. Translate that to health care where denial of a procedure could be fatal before you ever get through the automated answering system to appeal. Bureaucrats are not accountable. Everything on Obama's agenda hurts business and jobs. The fact that he hands out money and favors to his chosen ones doesn't foster growth, it just hurts those not on his gift list. To chose government control over unlimited possibility is an admission of failure; admission that you can't succeed on your own. A sad, sad way to live.
What happened in Greece when the
government ran out of other people's money? Wake Up America.


Posted by: giatny | July 28, 2010 10:32 PM | Report abuse

If you don't think today's ruling was not the death knell for Democrats in November, all I can say is....bwahhahahahahaa. It's not just the Tea Party, it is a reawakening of the general public. An informed electorate should scare the hell out of you.

Posted by: sybilll | July 28, 2010 11:30 PM | Report abuse

If the GOP wins, it will be their doom because they will do nothing to bring Obama's crimes to justice. Even if they tried, black-robed tyrants on the federal bench will stymie them. The Dem-o-commie-crats need to own the collapse of socialism, they need to ride the train off the cliff and be in the engine when it hits the ground. This is why the GOP is purposely losing. There is no way they are going to avert disaster. The Titanic already hit the iceberg.

Posted by: doctorfixit | July 28, 2010 11:48 PM | Report abuse

The Democrats are right! They will keep the House and the Senate. They have nothing to worry about. The Republicans can't possibly put enough seats into play to take control. Democrats should Be Happy, Don't Worry! You've got it in the bag!!!1

Posted by: valwayne | July 29, 2010 12:00 AM | Report abuse

At this point, why should anyone take anything Democrats say at face value?

Posted by: theduke89 | July 29, 2010 12:53 AM | Report abuse

If you support Obama and his Regime, you support a Statist authoritarian who is an empty suit who speaks in platitudes who is beholden to the oligarchical collectivists and banking cabals. You are against freedom, liberty and our constitutional republic and the notion that all of our rights are inborn and are given by our creator. Some autocrat in Washington does not grant rights - the constitution simply enumerates them for added protection. The constitution also limits the Powers of the Federal Government yet an expansionist authoritarian view is used in modern times contrary to what Madison had intended. If you support Obama you support the biggest threat to our free will in our history, and when the last bastion of freedom in the USA falls, there is nowhere else to go.

Posted by: mickrussom | July 29, 2010 3:12 AM | Report abuse

Yep, nothing to worry about. No need to donate, and no need to stress about getting to the polls.

Posted by: mike_w_long | July 29, 2010 4:10 AM | Report abuse

If I were Dems, I would tout that new report claiming if no Fed Action, TARP or mikefromArlington commented: "Stimulus were enacted, we could have lost an additional 8,5 million jobs on top of the already lost 8 million and the economy would have shrunk by 5% and we would be seeing depreciation right now, which would have been horrible.

Make it clear, that the do nothing approach of the Republicans would have sunk this nation into a Depression."

Mike, if you're still around, will you please tell me more about the Depression of 1920?

Let me help you:

The conventional wisdom holds that in the absence of government countercyclical policy, whether fiscal or monetary (or both), we cannot expect economic recovery — at least, not without an intolerably long delay. Yet the very opposite policies were followed during the depression of 1920–1921, and recovery was in fact not long in coming.

The economic situation in 1920 was grim. By that year unemployment had jumped from 4 percent to nearly 12 percent, and GNP declined 17 percent. No wonder, then, that Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover — falsely characterized as a supporter of laissez-faire economics — urged President Harding to consider an array of interventions to turn the economy around. Hoover was ignored.

Instead of "fiscal stimulus," Harding cut the government's budget nearly in half between 1920 and 1922. The rest of Harding's approach was equally laissez-faire. Tax rates were slashed for all income groups. The national debt was reduced by one-third.

The Federal Reserve's activity, moreover, was hardly noticeable. As one economic historian puts it, "Despite the severity of the contraction, the Fed did not move to use its powers to turn the money supply around and fight the contraction."[2] By the late summer of 1921, signs of recovery were already visible. The following year, unemployment was back down to 6.7 percent and it was only 2.4 percent by 1923.

Posted by: VibrioCocci | July 29, 2010 9:23 PM | Report abuse

You are absolutely right, giatny! "What happened in Cuba, Venezuela, Russia when the government controlled healthcare, finance, etc.? Real growth was over as incompetent bureaucrats mismanaged or stole
the country into disaster."

When Obama was running for President, those of us familiar Castro, Chavez, and the rest of the Marxist thugs who are destroying Latin America recognized Obama's kinship with them. Obama's campaign strategy -- based on lies, manipulation, intimidation and fraud, with overwhelming support from a corrupt media -- was almost identical to the strategies of the Marxist thugs. Unfortunately, Americans were FOOLED like the most ignorant Cubans and Venezuelans were fooled.

Fortunately, as we can see now, most Americans are waking up. Most Americans are ready to defend their FREEDOM and the freedom of their children and grandchildren from the abomination of Obama's criminal scams, including the Obamacare scam, and socialism/Marxism.

Most Americans, desperate to defend themselves, their children and eheir country, will vote for whomever can best defend them from Obama, his comrades, and his Marxist scams, including Obamacare and cap and trade.

Posted by: AntonioSosa | July 31, 2010 12:11 AM | Report abuse

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