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Harry Reid faces a really stiff headwind

One fascinating thing about the Nevada Senate race: Even though Sharron Angle has made some comments that would have long ago disqualified most candidates, and even though Harry Reid's campaign has blasted those comments all over Nevada, Angle and Reid are still locked in an exceptionally close race. This shows just how stiff a headwind Reid faces.

The new Las Vegas Review Journal poll illustrates this as clearly as you could wish for.

The poll finds that Reid and Angle are locked in a statistical tie for likely voters, 45-44. But here's the rub: This is in spite of the fact that Reid's ongoing attacks on Angle as extreme and dangerous are clearly working to keep her negatives high.

Thanks to Reid's attacks, Angle is seen unfavorably by more voters than see her favorably, 43-32. What's more, a whopping 68 percent say they wish someone other than Angle were the GOP nominee -- including 71 percent of Republicans. Yet the race is still a dead heat.

Here's why: Nevada voters strongly dislike the Obama agenda, and Reid in particular. Forty-seven percent say Obama's policies have hurt the economy, versus only 29 percent who say they have helped. And Reid is viewed negatively by a majority, 52 percent, which is higher than Angle's unfavorablity rating.

Bottom line: Reid's only hope is to render Angle not just an unacceptable alternative, but a horrifyingly awful one. One forth of Nevada likely voters have a neutral opinion of Angle, which is why Reid's campaign is carpetbombing her relentlessly with ads designed to portray her as a dangerous psychopath. Unless things start to turn around in Nevada, his survival may depend on whether those undecided voters come to see her in similarly garish and threatening terms.

By Greg Sargent  |  August 27, 2010; 11:47 AM ET
Categories:  2010 elections , Senate Dems , Senate Republicans , Tea Party  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Sharron Angle twice refuses to disavow claim that there are "domestic enemies" in Congress
Next: Senator Lugar won't take position on "mosque"

Comments

She is what the French would call 'Le Batmerde Crazy'

Posted by: mikefromArlington | August 27, 2010 11:55 AM | Report abuse

Tell us something that we do not already know.

Just a short while ago, Harry was way down in the polls, and was been soundly trounced by Sue Weldman.

Look at how much of a gap Harry has already closed, for cripes sake, instead of acting all surprised about the headwind, that we all knew about for the past several months.

Harry has momentum, and Angle has peaked, with a lot of time left before votes are cast.

Posted by: Liam-still | August 27, 2010 11:58 AM | Report abuse

"One forth of Nevada likely voters have a neutral opinion of Angle"

That's probably because she's running against Reid. If my choice was between Angle and Reid, I'd probably have a neutral opinion of her, too.

Posted by: Kevin_Willis | August 27, 2010 12:00 PM | Report abuse

OT:

Crist Yesterday: "I'm Still a Jeb Bush Republican"

Charlie Crist, in his indie bid for U.S. Senate, is appealing to Republicans and Democrats. And this leads to seemingly different messages in different parts of the state.

A week ago, speaking in the Democratic bastion of Broward County, Crist said "thank god" he left the Republican Party. But yesterday in the conservative Panhandle region he had a different message. He told Pensacola reporters he remains a conservative and the held the same ideology he did when he won the governor's mansion in 2006 as a "Jeb Bush Republican."

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2010/08/two-win-rs-and-ds-crist-mixes-messages.html

OUCH.

Posted by: Ethan2010 | August 27, 2010 12:02 PM | Report abuse

"...which is why Reid's campaign is carpetbombing her relentlessly with ads designed to portray her as a dangerous psychopath."

Well yes, you may be correct. But I'd say Reid has a DUTY to America to point out to the voters of Nevada that Angle is, indeed, a dangerous psychopath.

He may have political considerations, but stopping total loons like Angle from joining the US Senate is also something anyone who loves this country should feel honor bound to do.

Posted by: nisleib | August 27, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

CBO letter in response to Mike Crapo (Idiot-ID):

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation estimated that enactment of [HCR] will produce $143 billion in net budgetary savings over the 2010-2019 period.1 That
figure includes $124 billion in net savings for the health and revenue provisions of both laws and $19 billion in net savings for the education provisions of the Reconciliation Act.

...the two laws’ health care and revenue provisions are estimated to reduce the projected deficit in 2020 by $28 billion, and the education provisions of the Reconciliation Act are estimated to reduce the projected deficit in 2020 by $2 billion.

[...]

Finally, you asked what the net deficit impact would be if certain provisions of PPACA and the Reconciliation Act that were estimated to generate net savings were eliminated — specifically, those which were
originally estimated to generate a net reduction in mandatory outlays of $455 billion over the 2010–2019 period. The estimate of $455 billion mentioned in your letter represents the net effects of many provisions.

Some of those provisions generated savings for Medicare, Medicaid, or the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and some generated costs. If those provisions were repealed, CBO estimates that there would be an increase in deficits similar to its original estimate of $455 billion in net savings over that period.3

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/118xx/doc11820/CrapoLtr.pdf

Shorter CBO:

1) HCR will SAVE $173 BILLION over the next 10 years

2) Repealing HCR would result in ADDING $455 BILLION IN MANDATORY SPENDING!

Why would Republicans be opposed to this?!?!?!

Do they really want to ADD $455 BILLION IN MANDATORY SPENDING?

Don't they want to CUT SPENDING?

But they want to repeal HCR and so ADD almost half a TRILLION in government spending?!?!

Makes no sense!

Posted by: Ethan2010 | August 27, 2010 12:29 PM | Report abuse

Even if she were a crazy, dangerous psychopath, she would still be better in the U.S. Senate than Harry Reid.

Posted by: JakeD2 | August 27, 2010 12:36 PM | Report abuse

Nevada is currently enjoying an unemployment rate in the neighborhood of 14% and has taken a harder beating in the housing market collapse than any other state I believe. Never mind that Harry Reid, for the last decade has been one of the primary forces working to contain the damage Republicans were so busily wreaking, to whatever it could be contained and one of the prime movers of solutions in the period since, to such extent as they can be moved. People have short memories and want someone to blame. Reid presents a convenient target.

Nevada also happens to a Republican-leaning swing state to begin with and Harry Reid is a Democrat. Angle's schtick is conservative libertarian populism which, as silly as it may sound to us here on the East Coast, is still quite popular in the west this side of the California state line. Why would it come as a surprise to anyone that this is a close race?

Recall that six months ago there was a contest on to write Harry Reid's political obituary. I said at the time that I thought reports of his demise might be a little premature, but I sure never though he wasn't going to have a fight on his hands. Quite arguably, it's good news that we're even having this conversation.

Posted by: CalD | August 27, 2010 12:41 PM | Report abuse

nisleib | August 27, 2010 12:03 PM:

Good point.

Posted by: CalD | August 27, 2010 12:44 PM | Report abuse

Comments that seem disqualifying to the liberal beltway elites are quite unremarkable in the interior west. Such as eliminating departments and the EPA and so on. I would have thought Obama sitting in that racist hate church for twenty years and taking his daughters there would disqualify him too but apparently not.

Posted by: Truthteller12 | August 27, 2010 12:45 PM | Report abuse

Michele Bachmann ran an ad with Jim the Electin Guy (seriously what an insult to the intelligence of her own constituents)...

Here is Tarryl Clark's awesome video ad in response featuring several actual MN-6 voters whose names are Jim:

On behalf of actual voters across the 6th District, help us build our campaign to beat Michele Bachmann (and her paid-actor election guy) today!

https://secure.tarrylclark.com/page/contribute/em20100827

Posted by: Ethan2010 | August 27, 2010 12:46 PM | Report abuse

I will be casting my vote for Angle. She is a terrible candidate and will no doubt make more ridiculous remarks, but she beats the alternative.

Even if there was a chance she would become majority leader (there is not), she could not do as much damage as Harry Reid has already done.

Posted by: mgsorens | August 27, 2010 12:46 PM | Report abuse

[Greg pouted: "Reid's only hope is to render Angle not just an unacceptable alternative, but a horrifyingly awful one."]

Well, that explains Greg's campaign here to morph Angle into... (*queu ominous music*) Nancy Pelosi's evil twin!

I've been waiting patiently all month for the ACLU to denounce the “chilling effect” on the 1st Amendment exerted by this obvious attempt by one of the most powerful members of the US Government to intimidate the citizenry and inhibit them from freely expressing their dissent.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/114773-pelosi-new-yorkers-should-decide-in-ginned-up-mosque-controversy

But it’s still August, maybe they’re all still on vacation over at ACLU-HQ?

I’m sure they’ll all be chiming in on this any time now, you betcha.

*crickets chirp*

Posted by: KaddafiDelendaEst | August 27, 2010 12:48 PM | Report abuse

HAHAHAHAHAH "DEAD HEAT?" Right. WaPO fantasy world!!!! Just ask anyone in NEVADA if it's a "dead heat." harry is DONE. end of STORY.

Posted by: brucewla | August 27, 2010 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Reid may also be aided by the fact that Nevada allows people to vote for "none of these candidates." The poll evidently did not give that as an explicit choice, but other sites say that the poll reported that many on both sides would like another candidate. There are also something like 5 third-party candidates running.

It is not necessary for the winner to outpoll "none of the above,: so Reid could squeak out a win with 40-something %.

See here : http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/aug/01/neither-factor-deciding-factor/

Posted by: Mimikatz | August 27, 2010 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Angle has the momentum. Reid peaked a month ago when he was up 7 in the M-D poll and up 2 in Ras. Angle has gone from 37% in M-D to 44% now and now she is ahead in Ras. Reid's negatives are 9 points higher than hers in this poll. And she still has a quarter of the electorate to grow with. Undecideds almost always break for the challenger. Angle wins by 3 or 4. Bye Bye Harry.

Posted by: Truthteller12 | August 27, 2010 12:54 PM | Report abuse

All, check this out: Richard Lugar won't take a position on the Ground Zero mosque:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/08/senator_lugar_wont_take_positi.html

Posted by: Greg Sargent | August 27, 2010 12:58 PM | Report abuse

Reid's attacks are facing the law of diminishing returns. He had a window to make it happen. If it hasn't happened yet it's not going to. People aren't going to believe that a 60 year old grandmother of ten is a scary militia member who might shoot a congressman at any moment. The attacks have gotten over the top at this point.

Posted by: Truthteller12 | August 27, 2010 1:03 PM | Report abuse

If anyone needs to have an investigation opened into them, it’s Pelosi.

After the GOP takes over in November, they need to appoint a special investigator to look into such things as;

* her apparently fraudulent claims against the CIA and their harsh interrogation techniques;

* her misappropriation of government property by using military assets as personal taxis for her misbegotten family;

* potential fraud (she probably lied in any paperwork, pertaining to the use of those assets);

* and now her public attempt to harass those who oppose Islamo-supremacists erecting a 13-story 9/11 snuff porn emporium and jihad recruiting station at Ground Zero.

But you keep pretending Sharon Angle is McCarthy's resurrected zombie. Good luck with that ridiculous meme.

Posted by: KaddafiDelendaEst | August 27, 2010 1:13 PM | Report abuse

"she could not do as much damage as Harry Reid has already done"

Amazing how Nevadans seem to personify all the problems in their state with just ONE person, Harry Reid.

And there is never any mention of John Ensign, the guy who not only supported the Iraq War and tax cuts for the rich and RUBBER STAMPED every single George W. Bush initiative, but also cheated on his wife with his Chief of Staff's wife and then had her paid off to cover it up.

But hey, THAT GUY is INFALLIBLE!!!

I'm sure your Governor Jim Gibbons, another philanderer who was such a bad governor that he lost his PRIMARY... He had NOTHING to do with your state's problems either, right mgsorens?

Jim Gibbons... INFALLIBLE!!!

How about NV-2 Representative Dean Heller???

He voted AGAINST the small business bill, he voted AGAINST helping Nevada's unemployed, he voted AGAINST food safety, he voted AGAINST regulating tobacco, he voted AGAINST aid for the state of Nevada to pay for medicaid for the poor, he voted AGAINST renewable energy and more efficient cars, he voted AGAINST SCHIP the health care fund for children.

Dean Heller... INFALLIBLE!!!

But oh no, let's single out Harry Reid, one out of 100 Senators and one of two in your state, and blame him for everything bad!

It rained yesterday... Harry Reid.
It's too hot... Harry Reid.
My kid stubbed his toe yesterday... Harry Reid.
My car won't start... Harry Reid.
I didn't win the lottery... Harry Reid.

It is such trash.

Look at the FACTS, Nevadans.

Or don't bother, suit yourself.

But if you REFUSE to spend just a few minutes of time to learn about what is ACTUALLY going on in your state, then you may as well stop pretending that you care about America.

Posted by: Ethan2010 | August 27, 2010 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Reid's ads simply tell people where Angle stands and what her stated policy positions are. If people draw the conclusion that she's a dangerous psychopath, that's more about Angle than it is about the "portrayal". It's up to Angle to defend her own record.

Posted by: benintn | August 27, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

That's right Ethan. Convince them by insulting everyone in the state. That'll work.

Harry Reid is a dangerous psychopath.

Posted by: daveredhat | August 27, 2010 2:25 PM | Report abuse

Reid's strategy should be the Democrat's national strategy is they are going to win in November. Hint.

Posted by: dozas | August 27, 2010 4:02 PM | Report abuse

Obama's ratings are down in the polls .. "BUT" .. where are the Republicans in the polls ? With the help of former losers Palin & Gingrich + the Pro-Terrorist Fox (distort the truth) News station, the Republicans are mostly at the bottom of the barrel. Where are the intelligent Republicans hiding, are there any ?

Posted by: wasaUFO | August 27, 2010 4:31 PM | Report abuse

You guys should stop complaining cuz one the health care we have now isnt as good as it was supposed to be. also the law has just been signed give it a try u guys are too hard on democrats they went to college and we voted for most of these people.so if u want to say u have the right to choose tell that to ur congress men or state official. as for obama people are just tryin to make it look like america made a mistake he has done things to help us and we had a full 8 years of a terrible president and i will be so as happy as ever when a obama fixes bush's mistakes. You can find full medical coverage at the lowest price from http://bit.ly/9fDY7U . obama has to put up with the world judging his every move and trying to fix the mess we are in we are lucky anyone wants to be our president. STOP COMPLAINING AND GIVE HIM A BREAK. i wanna see one of yall do what he has done. some people are just so ignorant.

Posted by: markusjone28 | August 28, 2010 4:50 AM | Report abuse

From the article:

Even though Sharron Angle has made some comments that would have long ago disqualified most candidates,

More advocacy from JournOlister(the"O"stands for Obama) Sargent. Here are a few gaffs from Senator Reid courtesy of the Politico (Google is your friend):

"light-skinned" African-American with "no Negro dialect"

On the Iraq war: “This war is lost.” (April 2007)

On Alan Greenspan: “One of the biggest political hacks we have in Washington.” (March 2005)

On the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.): “I think it’s going to help us.” (August 2009)

“You know, Joe, I can’t stand John McCain.” (August 2008)
On President George W. Bush: “I think this guy is a loser.” (May 2005)

On Capitol tourists: “You can always tell when it is summertime because you can smell the visitors. The visitors stand out in the high humidity, heat, and they sweat.” (December 2008)
To a Las Vegas Review-Journal executive: “I hope you go out of business.” (August 2009)

On Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “Incompetent.” (June 2007)
On town hall protesters and agitators: “Evil-mongers.” (August 2009)

On Senate opponent John Ensign: Ensign “shouldn’t be interpreting the Constitution,” because he’s a veterinarian. (1998)

Posted by: lavistabb | August 28, 2010 7:08 AM | Report abuse

The Journolistas at the Washington Post must cry themselves to sleep every night over this story. Harry Reid's campaign organization--NPR Radio, the New York Times, the Washington Post, CBS--have done their best to knock down Angle's numbers and she keeps coming on like the Energizer bunny. I admire her for standing up to you guys.

Posted by: hrumphgrumble | August 28, 2010 7:56 AM | Report abuse

One forth of Nevada likely voters have a neutral opinion of Angle,


One forth? Don't you mean fourth?

Doesn't anyone at this paper read what they write anymore?

Posted by: ADNova | August 28, 2010 10:49 AM | Report abuse

What jounolisters don't get is that they are the extreemists and the minority, along with the corrupt leftist cabal in D.C. The days of branding mainstream Americans as psychopaths, bigots, etc. are over, no one is listening anymore. Harry Reid/ Pelosi are the very public face of the leftist movement to govern against the will of the American people. He will be demolished in Nov. and no amount of fake media spin will change that.

Posted by: gaphound | August 28, 2010 11:31 AM | Report abuse

What kind of statement is 'disqualifying'? I assume she's a citizen of the proper age. Maybe if she stated she is a closet communist . . . no , Reid is one, so that won't work. Was it her statement that she doesn't support the government's fraudulent Ponzi schemes that steal from the young to give to those who vote reliably Democrat? Being a Journ-0-lister should be disqualifying, but it isn't. Neither is being a pathological liar, or a bigot, like Reid. Maybe if she used a good Negro dialect, or if she didn't smell like a tourist, or if she were Hispanic (that would prove she's crazy, right Harry?)

Posted by: doctorfixit | August 28, 2010 11:59 AM | Report abuse

Election cycle after election cycle we learn how negative ads work. Reid understands his ONLY chance is to launch an aggressive negative campaign.

This is happening across the country as Dems realize they tied their future to the wrong ideals.

If Angle is smart she will let Harry rip away with his negative ads early then blast him with his own idiotic statements late. If he can only break even with his dirt she should be able to put it away in the stretch with hers.

Posted by: manapp99 | August 29, 2010 1:47 PM | Report abuse

How can someone who publically claims that she is for killing social security and medicare be up in the polls in atate wher there are a lot of old retired people receiving social security and medicare?

Are these people insane?

Posted by: Sammy2 | August 29, 2010 7:16 PM | Report abuse

How can someone who publically claims that she is for killing social security and medicare be up in the polls in state where there are a lot of old retired people receiving social security and medicare?

Are these people insane?

I have instructed my family to take me out if I bccome this stupid in old age. And yes I am old, retired, receiving social security and medicare.

But I am still able to use the brains that God gave me.

Posted by: Sammy2 | August 29, 2010 7:18 PM | Report abuse

“You can smell the tourists as they enter the Capitol Building”
Harry Reid (D-NV)

Coming from a state that survives on tourists, Harry Reid demonstrates why he has never been very popular in Nevada.

Also before this race Harry had virtually 100% name recognition and Sharron Angle had virtually none.

Harry had Millions of campaign $$$. Sharron had almost nothing.

Harry is spending $25,000,000 to slime Sharron. Sharron can barley afford to fight back.

In spite of this they are neck and neck!

Sending a campaign contribution to Sharron could make the difference RIGHT NOW!

I do not know Sharron. But I have done my homework. I know Harry, I have donated to his past campaigns: sorry :-(

But look back how Harry supported a law AGAINST illegal's getting citizenship. That is why so many Nevadan's thought that Harry was more of a conservative democrat.

He is a Mormon, like Glenn Beck.

The Mormons are generally conservative and Pro-Life. Harry worked overtime getting Obamacare passed with federal funding for abortion included.

You can see how so many Nevadans have been fooled into thinking Harry was on the more conservative side. Not anymore!

What I know now is Harry is a far left ideologue. He is Obama's # 1 go-to-guy!.

Sharron Angle is a great replacement for Harry.

Any time you get a candidate who professes strong support for the Constitution they are labeled “too conservative”, what BS.

Sharron Angle is a guaranteed vote for fiscal sanity.

Harry Reid is a guaranteed vote for more big government.

Sharron Angle is a guaranteed vote for repealing Obamacare

Harry Reid is a guaranteed vote for more Obamacare and government control of healthcare.

Sharron Angle is a guaranteed NO vote for higher taxes.

Harry Reid is a guaranteed YES vote for the biggest tax hike in history.

Sharron Angle is a guaranteed NO vote on “Cap and Trade”

Harry Reid is a guaranteed YES vote for “Cap and Trade”,and fights all energy development in America.

Any one who cannot openly support Sharron Angle, knowing the above, is a fool.

Anyone who votes for Harry Reid or “none of the above” is voting to continue on this path of economic destruction.

I do not understand how Harry is even still in this race!

Wake up Nevada!

Even with all his power: HARRY REID IS NO GOOD FOR NEVADA BECAUSE HE IS NO GOOD FOR AMERICA!

Posted by: NevadaDan | August 29, 2010 7:37 PM | Report abuse

Voters amaze me lol. They watch bias TV ads to make up their minds on who to vote for. I look at Reid and what he has done these last two years that has either been good or bad for the country. Angle could be a complete idiot and her vote in congress would not be as dangerous as another six years of Reid.

Posted by: bullfacts | August 30, 2010 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Voters amaze me lol. They watch bias TV ads to make up their minds on who to vote for. I look at Reid and what he has done these last two years that has either been good or bad for the country. Angle could be a complete idiot and her vote in congress would not be as dangerous as another six years of Reid.

Posted by: bullfacts | August 30, 2010 2:13 PM | Report abuse

Voters amaze me lol. They watch bias TV ads to make up their minds on who to vote for. I look at Reid and what he has done these last two years that has either been good or bad for the country. Angle could be a complete idiot and her vote in congress would not be as dangerous as another six years of Reid.

Posted by: bullfacts | August 30, 2010 2:14 PM | Report abuse

Harry Reid is the better candidate in Nevada. More accurately, he's the least worst America can do there, but not by much. In another century Reid would be a moderate Republican, as would a clear majority of the Democratic Senate. Angle is too far right, or just a bit off I'm not sure which. A moderate conservative is what is sorely and dismayingly needed, as much for Democrats as anyone. There seems to be few to none moderate Republicans running in any state. In any event, Republicans vote like a Nazi polo team so adding to their numbers is not good. Not good means the potential for a ridiculously unbalanced institution that will spell fascism in the US, if we don't have that already. In the long run the Senate must be reformed. It has a large, special-interest tumor on it's brain. Who can say if it's malignant? Quite possible.

Posted by: MG81 | September 1, 2010 3:41 PM | Report abuse

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