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The (D)oomed Party

Adam Serwer of the American Prospect is guest blogging on The Plum Line this week.

Massive Democratic losses in the House are past the level of conventional wisdom -- because of the state of the economy, a GOP takeover is almost at the level of foregone conclusion. Today Larry Sabato piles on:

Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a "net" number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama's Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.

But as Jonathan Martin reports, the Senate now looks like its in serious danger of flipping as well, with Senate races in Wisconsin, California, and Washington that looked fairly safe for Democrats tightening. Sens. Russ Feingold (Wisc.), Barbara Boxer (Calif.), and Patty Murray (Wash.) are looking vulnerable:

All three had won their last elections comfortably. And they were stockpiling the sort of money that flows readily to three-term senators.

But with the political environment turning toxic for Democrats and incumbents, Murray drawing perhaps her toughest possible opponent and Boxer and Feingold facing self-funders, the three Class of 1992 veterans are in the fight of their long political lives as the battle for control of the Senate moves from traditional battlegrounds to blue state venues.

Sabato offers some grim historical perspective, writing, "Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped, too, even when it had not been predicted to do so."

By Adam Serwer  |  September 2, 2010; 11:11 AM ET
 
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Next: Jan Brewer's terribly awkward debate performance

Comments

WOO HOO!!!

Posted by: JakeD2 | September 2, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

I'd like to see a correlation of American economic prosperity to Republican control of the House and see how it looks.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

Adam, with all due respect, this is a calorie-free post. A link to Jonathan Martin?? Come on.

The election is two months away. If we're going to talk about this, let's dig into the numbers, or dig into local strategies, or factors that would make Feingold "vulnerable."

Even Sports Center has more analysis than this.

Posted by: BGinCHI | September 2, 2010 12:04 PM | Report abuse

@Adam: You should like this - seeing as how you couldn't get McAdams name right yesterday.

"“It remains to be seen whether [Alaska Democrat Senate candidate Scott] McAdams will receive support from the Democratic National Committee or the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. McAdams says it doesn’t matter. ‘The DSCC and the national Democratic Party doesn’t even know my name. And that’s fine by me,’ he said.”

Posted by: sbj3 | September 2, 2010 12:07 PM | Report abuse

I can't wait for Greg to return. Adam has already decided the outcome of the election, two months before it is slated to be held.

Look everyone: Adams is going to attend John Boehner's elevation to Speaker of the House, tomorrow.

For those who live in the reality based now, unemployment claims dropped again, for the second week in a row.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 12:16 PM | Report abuse

BGinCHI:

Why ignore Larry Sabato's estimate which "is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama's Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today."

Posted by: JakeD2 | September 2, 2010 12:19 PM | Report abuse

When is Greg coming back? If I want to read conservocrud propaganda, I can go to politico myself.

Posted by: LynnDee227 | September 2, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

The truth is that the inexperience and lack of qualifications of Obama is destroying the democratic party.


And that is not the whole story.


The story is that THOUSANDS of democrats will be going down to defeat this November - on down-ticket races. Everyone in the country is anxious to register their displeasure with Obama.


The country said they did not want Obama's version of health care - Obama responded with ARROGANCE.


Then when the bill was passed, Obama and the democrats responded with FALSE CHARGES OF RACISM.


The false charges of racism have hurt the democratic party severly. The sentiment is deep - and Obama has not said anything about these constant attacks against innocent people. The blogs are filled with charges of hidden motives - and the media is now calling crowds "predominantly white."


The WHOLE country is "predominantly white" - and that is just a new code-word for "we are looking for an excuse to call all of you racist."


The democrats have done this ALL to themselves.


At the end of this, a new party will emerge from the ashes - the Republicans will split into two parties - and those parties will rule the nation for the next 200 years.


By the way - this November the Republicans will pick up 59 seats in the House, control of the Congress - and Obama will be looking for someone to call racist.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 12:23 PM | Report abuse

Obviously, for those 472,000 Americans filing initial uninsurance claims -- and the many more who have given up looking for work altogether -- things are not as good as Liam-still's "reality-based" wonderland. For the rest of us:

"You might think those numbers represent a positive trend, as it would seem that the number of people filing unemployment insurance claims for the first time after having been laid off from their jobs seems to be falling. You would be wrong.

We find that's the case when we look at the overall trend in first time jobless claims since November 21, 2009, when the current trend was first established. What we find is that overall the overall trend in the number of initial unemployment insurance claims filed each week is flattening out, and has nearly become flat.

The problem is that the number of new unemployment claims is becoming flat at a level far higher than the average 318,000 level that was typical during the full-employment, low-unemployment years of 2006 and 2007. Instead, we find the level of new jobless claims would appear to be stabilizing around a level of 465,000 weekly claims, some 147,000 claims higher than would be consistent with a growing US economy.

Using the standard deviation of the data for initial unemployment insurance claims filed since November 21, 2009, and assuming a normal bell-curve type distribution, we can now reasonably expect new weekly jobless claims filings will range between 415,000 and 515,000. A data figure falling outside of this range would be unexpected.

We would estimate a 68% probability that any future weekly jobless claims figure will fall between 448,000 and 482,000.

At least, until something happens to break the current trend, must as the introduction of healthcare reform legislation did to change the trend for the employee retention decisions of US businesses back in November 2009. Prior to the introduction of the HR 3962 bill, the situation for new jobless claims was actually improving at a rapid rate, but the strong likelihood that health care reform that would impose higher costs on businesses would pass into law derailed it.

We had thought as recently as two weeks ago that a new negative trend might be in the process of being established, however the data of the last two weeks suggests that the current trend remains in effect, as the rules we follow for determining when an existing trend is broken weren't tripped."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/223563-the-new-normal-for-jobless-claims

Posted by: JakeD2 | September 2, 2010 12:27 PM | Report abuse

The latest on the oil rig fire and explosion:

"GRAND ISLE, La. – An offshore petroleum platform exploded and was burning Thursday in the Gulf of Mexico about 80 miles off the Louisiana coast, west of the site where BP's undersea well spilled after a rig explosion.

The Coast Guard says no one was killed in the blast, which was reported by a commercial helicopter flying over the area Thursday morning. All 13 people aboard the rig have been accounted for, with one injury. The extent of the injury was not known.

Coast Guard Cmdr. Cheri Ben-Iesau said some of those from the rig were spotted in emergency flotation devices.

Seven Coast Guard helicopters, two airplanes and three cutters were dispatched to the scene from New Orleans, Houston and Mobile, Ala., Ben-Iesau said. She said authorities do not know whether oil was leaking from the site.

The Department of Homeland Security said the platform was in about 2,500 feet of water and owned by Mariner Energy of Houston. DHS said it was not producing oil and gas."

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 12:28 PM | Report abuse

Jake, is the election being held today?

Are Dems running against "generic" Republicans?

No and no.

You want to speculate about who's going to win the Big Ten or the Super Bowl?

Of course Nate Silver and others have been doing sophisticated analyses of races, and it's necessary to get into the fine-grained analysis in order to get past horse-race comments like yours and Adam's.

My GUESS is that the GOP peaked at the end of August, just as the TeaBaggers did last year. But we'll see.

Posted by: BGinCHI | September 2, 2010 12:29 PM | Report abuse

Haha.

Check out Janet Brewers opening statement from last night.

h/t TPM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUPKKbmWMZ8

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 12:32 PM | Report abuse

I'd expect Dems to take a beating, but I'm not 100% convinced it will be as bad as some say. We'll see.

There are red districts with Democratic congress critters. That is the downside of winning a "wave" ellection. Waves come, but they also go.

Posted by: nisleib | September 2, 2010 12:35 PM | Report abuse

Short Bus Troll,

The Republicans were the
Arsonists who burned down our Economy. No net jobs added, in eight years during the Bush/Cheney reign of terror. Instead, many millions of jobs were destroyed, and many of millions of the middle class sank into poverty.

An annual budget surplus was turned into a massive annual deficit. That was what the Republican Arsonists did to our American Home.

Now those very same Arsonists are telling the voters, that they should be the ones to do the fire fighting and the rebuilding. That is a good one.

It would be like calling back Jack Kevorkian to finish treating the patient, he almost killed the first time.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 12:35 PM | Report abuse

Obama decided, on his own, that he was going to IGNORE the economy, because he wanted to concentrate on "big things."


Obama even stated this sentiment before Congress last September - the height of arrogance is to be arrogance in front of Congress.


Obama INGORED the economy - in favor of health care - the country is not happy with that.


This ARROGANCE has been compounded by Obama's refusal to act to clean up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If you want to fix the economy, that is where you start. Obama doesn't want to do it because of his own far-left wing agenda to help minorities.


Obama's arrogance was on full display again when he REFUSED to say the Surge was a success - and refused to be bipartisan in his Iraq speech - a perfect opportunity ruined by Obama's character flaws.

There you have it - the country doesn't want to give Obama a second chance either - they want him OUT of office - IMPEACHMENT if necessary.


Obama didn't want to give Bush time for the Surge to work, or time for the Iraq war to end - now Obama wants time. It doesn't work that way.


I think the country is a little WORN by the attacks from Obama and the democrats over the past 8 years. The country does NOT believe the democrats were fully behind the War On Terror - and Obama has already proven that he is NOT up to the task on national security.


National Security issues are important - and Obama really has blown it there - everyone is saying that Obama has to get out before he makes a major terrorism mistake.


This country NEEDS to get Obama in check this year and out of office as soon as possible.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 12:36 PM | Report abuse

I couldn't even watch that entire Brewer opening remarks on her campaign.

Way too painful. It was as embarrassing as watching Palin's Gibson interview.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 12:37 PM | Report abuse

Jan Brewer, corrupt and stupid. But really, more stupid than anything.

Wow. Just wow.

Posted by: BGinCHI | September 2, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

That Brewer statement reminds me of this...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww


:P

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 12:40 PM | Report abuse

The Republicans were the
Arsonists who burned down our Economy. No net jobs added, in eight years during the Bush/Cheney reign of terror. Instead, many millions of jobs were destroyed, and many of millions of the middle class sank into poverty.

An annual budget surplus was turned into a massive annual deficit. That was what the Republican Arsonists did to our American Home.

Now those very same Arsonists are telling the voters, that they should be the ones to, handle the fire fighting and the rebuilding. That is a good one.

It would be like calling back Jack Kevorkian to finish treating the patient, he almost killed the first time.

The Republicans are Political Jack Kevorkians.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 12:41 PM | Report abuse

BGinCHI:

You let me know when Nate Silver criticizes the number-crunching by Larry Sabato. My question to you was why ignore THAT statistical analysis in order to make your allegation that Jonathan Martin did none?

Posted by: JakeD2 | September 2, 2010 12:43 PM | Report abuse

America:

If you loved how the Republicans destroyed the Economy, the last time you put them in charge, then by all means, call in those Political Jack Kevorkians to finish us off.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 12:46 PM | Report abuse

I believe an important point is what happened in 2008 - the country was a little tired of all the attacks against Bush and the efforts to protect our National Security.


The country was ready to try a change - but I don't believe the country was all that convinced to begin with - support for Obama was extremely SHALLOW.


The democrats treated 2008 like it was their chance to make major changes to the economy and the nation - and the country said "Wait a minute - that really wasn't discussed during the campaign - you said you were going to be bipartisan."

This is Obama's main problem - the country was willing to support him to negotiate and get MAJOR SUPPORT IN BOTH PARTIES FOR HIS PROPOSALS.

The country NEVER thought that meant a far-left agenda.


The country was NEVER really on-board with the attacks on Bush either.


The democrats decided they were going to hammer away at Bush for years. But NOW, the Republicans are doing the same thing in Congress - and the democrats are crying FOUL.

Really? That is exactly what the democrats did under Bush - NOT FOUL.


Complains about rally signs? The democratic signs under Bush were worse.

The democrats have STEADILY destroyed THEIR OWN CREDIBILITY. and then Obama thinks it is some sort of joke.


The country still hears that Obama's people are still saying that they will recover - the American People WANT OBAMA TO CHANGE - they dont want to be told what they have to support.

That is the key - THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WANT OBAMA TO CHANGE.


.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 12:47 PM | Report abuse

The Brewer thing got worse if you haven't seen it:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/02/jan-brewer-starts-badly-f_n_703559.html

Check out the second video to see how she reacted when everyone confronted her about her "headless bodies" lie.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 12:50 PM | Report abuse

SaveTheRainforest, you sound like you're trying to convince yourself still of everything you type.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 12:51 PM | Report abuse

Keep on believing that fairy tale, if it makes you feel better.

Reality Check:

Bush send his Treasury Secretary up to the hill, to get down on his knees, and beg for the TARP bailout of Wall St Casino Banks, because otherwise the country was going down the drain.

It was so bad, that John McCain suspended his campaign, to rush back to Washington. It was in all the papers. You should Google it.

America:

If you loved how the Republicans destroyed the Economy, the last time you put them in charge, then by all means, call in those Political Jack Kevorkians to finish us off.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 12:52 PM | Report abuse

haha

Check out the follow up press questions for Brewer.


http://www.azcentral.com/video/601325652001

Must be SaveTheRainforests mom or something.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 12:56 PM | Report abuse

Life's a video game with real bullets brought to you by STRainForest.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From Sept. 1
STR @ 10:44pm
"Not exactly sure what to say - but tolerance is important, especially on the blogs."
STR @ 2:38pm
Jake

"I have the best solution for the southern border.

All we need to do is set up machine guns with camaeras at various points - linked to the internet.

We can charge people to log onto the website for each gun and see the surrounding area.

This way, we don't even have to pay for border guards - we can take care of the border from the comfort of our own homes.
Quite a deterrent - huh ? I think after a while, they will stop coming.

What do you think ???"

Posted by: lmsinca | September 2, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Sorry, last one. But here's a local take on Brewer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL5KQ4Ao0ro

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Liam-still at 12;41


I think the American People KNOW that Bill Clinton de-regulated the derivatives markets and repealed Glass-Steagall


The American People know that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - the center of the crisis - were filled with democrats working their left-wing agenda.

Wall Street was allowed to RUN WILD by Bill Clinton - who was clearly seeking to lay the groundwork for fundraising for Hillary's Senate runs twice and Presidential run.


Charges Made, Case tried - Case PROVEN - GUILTY.

Blaming Bush doesnt work anymore - there was a War On Terror going on - and the democrats have caused him to have such a low public image that no one believes he could screw in a light-bulb - much less screw up the economy.


No - everyone agrees it was BILL CLINTON AND THE DEMOCRATS FAULT.

Anyway - the democrats and their arrogance wont listen to anything anyway.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 12:59 PM | Report abuse

Good catch, Imsinca.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 12:59 PM | Report abuse

haha

Check out the follow up press questions for Brewer.


http://www.azcentral.com/video/601325652001

Must be SaveTheRainforests mom or something.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 12:56 PM
....................

She might be handicapped by having to lug around those huge testicles, that Quitter Palin attested to her having.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 1:00 PM | Report abuse

SCat, he/she owns it.

Posted by: lmsinca | September 2, 2010 1:01 PM | Report abuse

"Blaming Bush doesnt work anymore - there was a War On Terror going on - and the democrats have caused him to have such a low public image that no one believes he could screw in a light-bulb - much less screw up the economy."

So, your argument comes down to Bush was too stupid to screw things up? Really?

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 1:03 PM | Report abuse

My prediction is that the house flips, and possibly the senate, based on jobs and the economy. If the economy isn't looking better, however, the Republicans will start taking losses as early as 2012.

If it's a "bloodbath", it's because of a Poe-esque economic blade on a pendulum that swings both ways. It'll be coming right back in 2012 and 2014 if the economy doesn't improve.

If you've ever gotten up at night and gone into a room with several different light switches on the panel, and just kept flipping them up and down until you found the one that actually turned on the light you want--that's the American electorate. They'll keep flipping the light switch up and down until they think the economy has gotten better, or are compelled by some other reason that somehow outweighs their pocket book to keep, or reject, a particular candidate.

Otherwise, it is and remains the economy: stupid.

Posted by: Kevin_Willis | September 2, 2010 1:04 PM | Report abuse

Jake, if you like Jonathan Martin, and you think he does good analysis, then you are welcome to him. Politico probably does seem smart to people who don't know any better.

My point, really, was that it's early. That's not really very controversial.

Enjoy playing with your pom-poms, though.

Posted by: BGinCHI | September 2, 2010 1:05 PM | Report abuse

I loved the most recent poll - which came out yesterday - asking people which party they trusted more on certain issues.


On the economy Republicans

On the gay marriage Republicans


On National Security Republicans


On Fighting Terrorism Republicans


On Health Care Republicans

Obama has completely destroyed the credibility of the democrats EVEN on their own issues -


Anyway - the democrats love their Obama - they thought that his lack of experience and qualifications didn't matter.


How is that working for you now? Obama is destroying the democratic party.

,

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Kevin, I endorse this, with sadness:

"If you've ever gotten up at night and gone into a room with several different light switches on the panel, and just kept flipping them up and down until you found the one that actually turned on the light you want--that's the American electorate. They'll keep flipping the light switch up and down until they think the economy has gotten better, or are compelled by some other reason that somehow outweighs their pocket book to keep, or reject, a particular candidate.

Otherwise, it is and remains the economy: stupid."

Posted by: BGinCHI | September 2, 2010 1:07 PM | Report abuse

SaveTheRainforest,

I've got a questions for you.

It's going to challenge your knowledge of how Govn't works.

Did Bill Clinton write the Glass-Steagall repeal? If so, who were his co-sponsers? If not, who wrote the bill?

clock is ticking...

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 1:07 PM | Report abuse

When does Greg get back and when does Adam Serwer start his new gig at Politco?

I've never been a fan of Sabato or Charlie Cook and if someone references another Rasmussen poll I'm gonna put my foot thru my computer!

There's a vaccum created for similar bad news for the Dems throughout the corporate media. Just as potent as the Dump The Incumbent meme.

Just plain lazy 'journalism'.

Posted by: bmcchgo | September 2, 2010 1:08 PM | Report abuse

When Bill Clinon left Office; he left behind http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/economyunemployment/a large annual budget surplus, which was paying down the national debt. he also left office with very low unemployment rates through out the land.

Bush/Cheney cut taxes for Needy Billionaires, messed up two small wars, and squandered two trillion in borrowed dollars, to fund the wars they started and could not finish.

When they left office, at the end of eight years, they had turned the annual budget surplus into a massive annual budget deficit; had created no net jobs, and instead had lost millions of them, and destroyed the pension plans of millions of working class Americans.

On top of that; Bush/Cheney obtained TARP billions to bailout their Wall St. Casino Bank Cronies.


Like I said before, if you like how they almost killed the country, the last time they were in charge, then by all means call them back to finish us off.

Republicans Are Political Jack Kevorkians.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 1:09 PM | Report abuse

There are shifts going on out across the country that the media haven't caught up to yet.

First, the youth are paying attention to this election, primarily because of an abhorrence for Beck's insanity. Every young person I know is planning to turn out and vote in this election against the Palin/Beck/teaparty Republicans. Beck has accomplished the impossible: awakened the youth in a midterm election.

Second, the country is returning to "buy American" because of the high unemployment. With that comes a resentment toward corporations that have taken American jobs overseas. This growing attitude of protectionism does not help corporate candidates such as Fiorina.

And finally, Democratic supporters are waking up from their dreams of utopia and recognizing that the most extremist Republican supporters, who have been waging an all out war since January 2009, are actually winning.

These are important shifts, and as usual the MSM are behind in recognizing it because they are all about the latest tidbit being discussed in the beltway. They actually believe Politico holds the country's pulse.

Posted by: Beeliever | September 2, 2010 1:10 PM | Report abuse

COMPREHENSIVE IMMIGRATION REFORM


We need to REMOVE the incentives which make illegal aliens want to break the Federal Immigration laws.


Which means - make it harder to cross the border - make it serious.


If we have to stop the Anchor babies, so be it. Up to now, this country has been extremely generous, and the law should be changed.


There should be an Amendment which puts the power on anchor babies in the hands of Congress - so the law could be changed back if immigration slows to the point where it is not a problem.


There are TOO MANY INCENTIVES now to come to this country - the incentives have to be reduced.


The democrats want to INCREASE the incentives - with amenesty - that will only cause more millions to show up here. That is not practical.


Mike from Arlington - go down Route 50 - ask yourself "When all these people have children, and they grow up in 20 years, will the economy have jobs for all those people?"

If we have 50 million illegal aliens - and they all have 2 children - that means our economy needs 100 million jobs for them in 20 years.


Think about that.

They turn Republican really fast by the way, don't fool yourself.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 1:10 PM | Report abuse

The very same Right Wingers who keep saying that we should not blame Bush for the mess he handed over, less than two years ago, are the same people who are still blaming FDR for what he did back in the 1930s.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 1:15 PM | Report abuse

"Sabato offers some grim historical perspective, writing, 'Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped, too, even when it had not been predicted to do so.'"

For those poo-pooing the defeatism of Adam's post, he has history on his side. Polls, economic trends, and history tend to indicate the Democrats will lose a significant number of seats in both houses, and it would a historical anomaly if they did not. And, generally, history is a better predictor of such things than pundits.

Speaking of which, if you want to listen to a great political podcast, I heartily recommend My History Can Beat Up Your Politics by Bruce Carlson. He is a self-confessed liberal, but you'd be hard pressed to figure out his political leanings from his podcast.

http://myhistorycanbeatupyourpolitics.blogspot.com/

Also, you can just subscribe via iTunes. It's a brilliant podcast. Love it.

And I'm of the opinion that history does, indeed, beat politics most of the time. Historical trends tend to repeat.

Posted by: Kevin_Willis | September 2, 2010 1:16 PM | Report abuse

BGinCHI


Obviously the best solution for the democrats is to start calling every pollster in the country a racist.


Then maybe they won't be so harsh on Obama, right ?


It doesn't matter if you have any evidence of actual racism, but look at these number, there must be some hidden motive of racism behind these numbers.


I went to a park the other day - and under EVERY rock I found hidden racism.


I couldn't believe it.


Then I drove to another State, and another park - and I looked under all the rocks I could find - all had hidden racism under them.


That has to be the best strategy for the democrats.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 1:18 PM | Report abuse

Beeliever, I hope you're right. Here's a prescription for post Labor Day. Everyone know Republicans think small businesses are the Fortune 500's, but if Dems push this deficit neutral proposal through it will help ACTUAL small businesses. An open letter to Speaker Pelosi from:

Lloyd Chapman is President of the American Small Business League

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"Ending the diversion of small business contracts to large businesses would redirect over $100 billion a year in federal contracts back into the middle class economy. This would be the most powerful economic stimulus to date and can be used to drive demand directly into the hands of our nation’s small businesses. With this economic stimulus in mind, I urge you to support H.R. 2568, the Fairness and Transparency in Contracting Act. It was introduced by Georgia Congressman Hank Johnson, and currently has 26 cosponsors. This bill is a deficit neutral means of ending the 10-year-old contracting scandal that has facilitated the diversion of over $1 trillion in small business contracts to corporate giants."

http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/68672

Posted by: lmsinca | September 2, 2010 1:19 PM | Report abuse

@Liam-still: I'm not blaming FDR. All of the worst programs of the New Deal have long since been abolished. We would be better off today if some of the FDR era banking regulations had not been repealed. And even FDR suggested he expected to see Social Security handled in the private sector at some point, so it's hard to "blame" him for there not being personal accounts or a Social Security lock-box. He also left us with a lot of great WPA projects. Perhaps a little blind to the bad parts of old Uncle Joe Stalin, but everybody has 20/20 hindsight.

But it would be tough to blame FDR for the economy. Even the cost of programs like Social Security and Medicare have more to do with laws past well after FDR, not his original programs, per se.

LBJ . . . now, maybe there we could have a discussion. ;)

Posted by: Kevin_Willis | September 2, 2010 1:20 PM | Report abuse

I still have to call cow pies on this. We'll see who's right.

Posted by: CalD | September 2, 2010 1:21 PM | Report abuse

schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 1:03 PM


I made several posts on Bill Clinton de-regulating the derivatives markets - and repealing Glass Steagall.

In addition, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was filled with democrats.


My argument is that it took Bill Clinton - collecting donations from Wall Street so Hillary could run for the Senate in New York twice - and for President -


It took Bill Clinton to screw things up - that makes sense.


.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 1:22 PM | Report abuse

When was the last time a Republican President actually won a war, and had the enemy actually surrender?

Bush started two small wars, and screwed them both up so badly, that we still are trying to find a way to end them.

FDR defeated two empires, simultaneously, from a wheelchair, in half the time that Bush took to start and screw up two small wars, against two small third world countries.

If you need some thing screwed up; call in The Republican Political Jake Kevorkians.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Generally horse-race stuff isn't my gig, which is why these posts don't have the kind of in-depth statistical analysis you might find somewhere else. Greg is certainly much better at that than me. I'm simply trying to keep a balance between the stuff I think will be interesting to Greg's audience and the kind of material I usually write about.

That said, I think the economic indicators are pretty clear that Dems are heading for some devastating losses, and that's reflected in the polls. That's just my view.

Posted by: Adam Serwer | September 2, 2010 1:23 PM | Report abuse

mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 1:07 PM


Bill Clinton could have vetoed the bill - his support was key for the repeal of Glass Steagall to go through.

What about the Free Trade deals ??


Clinton sold out this country's economy to China and Indonesia - and that isn't even talking about NAFTA.


Again - the democratic party sold OUT the economy -


AND we will just have to see if the rumors of improper money going to Obama and the democrats from China and Indonesia NOW are true........


The Free Trade deals would have NEVER been passed with the democrats.


The democrats SOLD OUT THIS COUNTRY.


That is the truth. WAKE UP.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 1:28 PM | Report abuse

But still; How can you blame Bill Clinton, after he was out of office for eight years, while saying that Democrats should not blame Bush, who is out of office less than two years?

FDR created Social Security. Republicans want to get rid of it. That is still blaming FDR for what he did back in the 1930s, regardless of how Right Winger try to square the circle.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Adam, don't gloss me, dude.

Dig deeper, please, and don't link to Politico unless you are going to subject them to some serious analysis.

Now, get back in there, tiger!

Posted by: BGinCHI | September 2, 2010 1:28 PM | Report abuse

"Obviously the best solution for the democrats is to start calling every pollster in the country a racist."

I propose we start a Plumline pool to see how long it takes everyday before STR introduces race into a totally unrelated topic.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

Liam-still | September 2, 2010 1:09 PM

Bill Clinton left behind an internet bubble in the middle of bursting. Billions of dollars were lost - everyone was complaining about their portfolios.


The budget surplus you LOVE to give Clinton credit for - that was actually the policies of Newt Gingrich - who had to shut down the government to get the budget in line - Clinton had to be dragged into making those cuts.


Most of all - the budget surplus was not REAL - it was a product of the internet bubble - which Clinton should have never let happen.

I'm not sure if you are a liar - or just ignorant about these simple facts.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 1:31 PM | Report abuse

SaveTheRainforest, you ignored the question.

Who wrote the bill that repealed it? Come on. You can even use The Googles if you want.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 1:33 PM | Report abuse

Historically:

Republican Admninistrations have brought about Economic Depressions, and Great Recessions, and have had a terrible record, when it came to prosecuting wars, to successful conclusions.


It is as true today, as when the man first said it:

"If you wish to live like a Republican, then you better vote like a Democrat" President Harry S. Truman

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 1:36 PM | Report abuse

The Right Winger is blaming Bill Clinton, while saying that after less than two years have passed, we should no longer be able to blame George Bush.

TeaBagger Logic. You can blame Democrats for what happen back when Jesus tried on his first pair of sandals, but you can not blame Republicans, if more than five minutes have passed.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 1:41 PM | Report abuse

Mikefrom Arlington


Clinton agreed to the Repeal of Glass Steagall - and he signed the bill.

If Clinton said NO, it wouldn't have happened.


Clinton is also responsible for REGULATION Q - Which DE-REGULATED THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS


I have heard people try to blame Bush for not enforcing the rules - but the RULES were Clinton's - DEREGULATED DERIVATIVES - and they were followed according to what CLINTON did.


Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are filled with democratic appointees - AND Obama REFUSES to do anything about it.


You think Obama has done stupid things for the democratic party, check out Obama's refusal to clean up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The country NEEDS to put an immediate CHECK on Obama by changing control of Congress - and Obama has to get OUT as soon of possible.


It is of upmost importance to the nation.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 1:42 PM | Report abuse

Yup, Carters CRA was responsible for the global economic meltdown didntchaknow?

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 1:42 PM | Report abuse

Whether things are or will be as bad as some are predicting shouldn't be the issue in and of itself. The issue should be what can we do to improve both Dems chances at the polls and the ECONOMY before November. I know a lot of people here aren't overly fond of Drew Westen, he's been tough on Obama, but he as some good ideas. This is what we need to be doing IMO.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"But actions speak louder than words, and Americans want to see action. It may be too late for the kind of jobs bill we should have seen a year and a half ago, but it isn't too late for Democrats to go on the offensive against the Republicans -- virtually all of them -- who opposed extending unemployment insurance to millions of Americans who were thrown out of work by the Republicans' corporate sponsors. It isn't too late for Democrats to contrast their support for the highly popular aid to state and local governments that just saved the jobs of hundreds of thousands of teachers, firefighters, and police all over the country with Republicans' desire to throw them out onto the street. It isn't too late to make a voting issue out of the bill the Republicans are stalling that would give small businesses a fighting chance in an economy stacked against them, and to make clear that one party stands for small businesses, which create 75 percent of the new jobs in this country, and the other party stands for big businesses that outsource American jobs and offshore their profits to avoid paying their fair share of American taxes. It's not too late to pass a bill that would limit credit card interest rates to a reasonable percent above the rate at which credit is made available to credit card companies. It's not too late to pass the first badly need "fix" to the health care reform act to demonstrate to Americans that Democrats mean it when they say this was just the first step, namely a law that stops insurance companies from increasing their premiums by 40 percent while cutting the size of their networks by 50-75 percent, which violates the principles of affordability and choice that were so essential to efforts to sell health care reform to the public. It's not too late to vow to change the rules of the Senate to prevent the use of the filibuster to give every special interest veto power over every important piece of legislation. It's not too late to introduce legislation that's been on hold in both the House and Senate to guarantee fair elections, so that the voice of everyday Americans is heard over the voice of the special interests that finance political campaigns."

Posted by: lmsinca | September 2, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

@Liam-still: "FDR defeated two empires, simultaneously, from a wheelchair, in half the time that Bush took to start and screw up two small wars, against two small third world countries."

In all fairness, the Republican opposition at the time was, indeed, loyal opposition. So America presented a unified front in the war against the Axis powers.

Also, in comparison to Bush, FDR went to war against a variety of actual countries, rather than a tactic. A war against Germany is easier to win (and would be, even today) than a "war against terror".

Finally, we do not fight wars with the sort of scorched earth strategy we used in World War II. We burned Tokyo to ash, we incinerated Nagasaki and Hiroshima, we fire-bombed Dresden. It's easier to win wars when you simply don't pull any punches in regard to collateral damage. A high level of civilian deaths helped contributed to the surrenders of Japan and Germany; we would never conduct a war like that. We also lost 416,800 soldiers during World War II--that's a death toll the American public would not likely stand for now. They won't even stand for 1% of that (and I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing).

Which, getting back to history, ain't nothing like the Soviet Union, which lost up to 10,000,000 soldiers. Most of that fighting Germany. Without which, we would have probably lost a million soldiers in ground-and-air combat with Germany. And had we not dropped the bombs, we probably would have lost another 500,000 boys in ground fighting. We also (for anti-Truman types) would have almost certainly ended up killing many, many more civilian Japanese. Just Okinawa helped prove that.

Civilian deaths in Japan were upwards of 580,000. In Germany, they were 5.5 million. Which involved all the allies, including Russia, but can you imagine us even becoming involved in a war that resulted in 5.5 million civilian deaths? I find that very difficult to accept.

Posted by: Kevin_Willis | September 2, 2010 1:44 PM | Report abuse

Here's a little bit more and the link.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"That narrative might have included -- and should include today -- some key elements: that if the economy is tumbling, it's the role of leadership and government to stop the free-fall; that if Wall Street is gambling with our financial security, our homes, and our jobs, true leaders do not sit back helplessly and wax eloquent about the free market, they take away the dice; that if the private sector can't create jobs for people who want to work, then we'll put Americans back to work rebuilding our roads, bridges, and schools; that if Big Oil is preventing us from competing with China's wind and solar energy programs, then we'll eliminate the tax breaks that lead to dysfunctional investments in 19th century fuels and have a public-private partnership with companies that will create the clean, safe fuels of the 21st century and the millions of good American jobs that will follow.

That's what Democrats stand for. It's time they said it."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/drew-westen/what-created-the-populist_b_699960.html

Posted by: lmsinca | September 2, 2010 1:45 PM | Report abuse

Right Winger blames Bill Clinton for George Bush cutting taxes, for Needy(rhymes with greedy) Billionaires, not offsetting the lost revenue stream, and ballooning the annual budget deficits.

How dare Bill Clinton for having made George W. Bush do that.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 1:45 PM | Report abuse

SaveTheRainforst can't name which people wrote the repeal of Glass-Steagal.

Does naming a list of Republicans bother you? Is that it?

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 1:47 PM | Report abuse

don't gloss me, dude.


don't gloss me, dude.


don't gloss me, dude.


Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 1:48 PM | Report abuse

"Obviously the best solution for the democrats is to start calling every pollster in the country a racist."

I propose we start a Plumline pool to see how long it takes everyday before STR introduces race into a totally unrelated topic.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 1:30 PM


_____________________________________

That wasn't injecting the issue of race.


That was injecting the issue of injecting False Charges of Racism into unrelated issues, like health care.


That confrontation on Capitol Hill was provoked - and possibly pre-planned - by the democrats.


The answer to that : the Nation will answer in November.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Right Winger blames Bill Clinton for George W. Bush having spent two trillion dollars on wars that he started, off budget, so that he could just borrow the money from China, to spend on the two wars. How dare Bill Clinton for having made George W. Bush do that.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 1:52 PM | Report abuse

Gramm (R) Leach (R) Bliley (R)

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 1:55 PM | Report abuse

"That confrontation on Capitol Hill was provoked - and possibly pre-planned - by the democrats."

What does that have anything to do with the topic at hand?

You keep insisting Dems are racists, but yet time and time again YOU'RE the one who keeps bringing it up. Who here on this thread other than you mentioned race or who accused Repubs of being racist?

I was willing to give you the benefit of the doubt but 12BarBlues was right - that's all you want to talk about.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 1:59 PM | Report abuse

You guys keep on blaming Bush - and I'll keep on blaming Obama.


It is Obama who is responsible for the economic solutions -


What are Obama's economic solutions ??


1) Blame Bush


2) Waste Stimulus dollars


3) Call everyone a racist

That is pretty much Obama's economic policy.


.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 2:00 PM | Report abuse

Why do we want to talk about this before the campaign even kicks off?

Posted by: sickofthemall | September 2, 2010 2:01 PM | Report abuse

Well, there is a African American Family in the White House, and that drives a lot of those Teabaggers around the bend.

When they say: "we want to take back our country", what they really mean is, we want a "White President, just like us". That is what that "take back our country" is code for.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 2:02 PM | Report abuse

@ Kevin_Willis | September 2, 2010 1:16 PM:

Ever wonder how well these guys do with their projections in real life? I did, in 2006, so I made a spreadsheet to compare them to each other and to actual election results. I wish I had started earlier though because as you can see, there was a fairly dramatic difference between how some of them did even 2 or 3 weeks before the election and their final calls. It's also worth noting that the best of them did only a tad better than 3 out of 4 on their finals.

Percentage of Correct Leans* for House Races, Week of 10/16/06

Nat'l Journal Hotline: 66%
Cook: 57%
CQ: 61%
Rothenberg: 66%
Evans/ Novak: 69%
Larry Sabato: 64%

Percentage of Correct Leans* for House Races, Final 2006 Projections

Nat'l Journal Hotline: 77%
Cook: 60%
CQ: 65%
Rothenberg: 76%
Evans/ Novak: 72%
Larry Sabato: 77%

* For races rated pure toss-ups, 1/2 point was awarded if the two major party candidates finished within 4 percentage points of each other.

Posted by: CalD | September 2, 2010 2:03 PM | Report abuse

"Call everyone a racist

That is pretty much Obama's economic policy"

Name ONE time Obama has claimed someone opposes his economic policies because he/she is racist. ONE TIME.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 2:06 PM | Report abuse

Right Winger says that Bush was not responsible for what happened during his eight years in Office, but that President Obama is responsible for fixing all the problems that happened during Bush's eight years, since President Obama has already had less than two years in office, and should have made everything perfect, by now.

That Is TeaBagger logic at work, folks.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 2:07 PM | Report abuse

FYI:

"Oil sheen seen near Mariner Energy rig"

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-sheen-seen-near-mariner-energy-rig-2010-09-02

Posted by: wbgonne | September 2, 2010 2:19 PM | Report abuse

I'm going to risk the wrath of Jake by going off topic. Looks like Alan Simpson of Cow fame has pissed another group off. At some point hopefully someone in the Administration will admit the fact that the guys either senile or now working in good faith.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"A major veterans organization called on President Obama to remove Alan Simpson from the deficit commission for questioning why veterans are not "helping us to save the country" by foregoing health care benefits promised in return for their military service.

On Tuesday, Simpson, a former Republican senator from Wyoming and currently the co-chair of a deficit commission looking into spending cuts, decried "the irony that the veterans who saved this country are now, in a way, not helping us to save the country in this fiscal mess."

Simpson wants to cut the national debt by slashing benefits for veterans. VoteVets.org, which represents 50,000 veterans and family members, has had enough. The group's chairman, Jon Soltz, said that veterans had been concerned by comments Simpson made disparaging Social Security, calling it "a milk cow with 310 million ti!s!" and suggesting that military pay be frozen.

The "final straw," writes Soltz, was Simpson calling for veterans' benefits to be cut."

Posted by: lmsinca | September 2, 2010 2:21 PM | Report abuse

lmsinca, I thought maybe the first time this Simson guy might have lost his cool and made a mistake.

I'm starting to think he's either senile or just a male organ.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 2:24 PM | Report abuse

@CalD: "Ever wonder how well these guys do with their projections in real life? I did, in 2006, so I made a spreadsheet to compare them to each other and to actual election results."

Very interesting. Everybody does better than 50/50, but not a lot better, especially early on.

Either a fair amount changes between first predictions and the election (reasonable) or folks have to start adjusting their number from wishful thinking to reality, to maintain credibility.

Posted by: Kevin_Willis | September 2, 2010 2:24 PM | Report abuse

edit: or NOT working in good faith.

wbgonne, did you see that the Mariner Energy had a big rally yesterday complaining about Obama and safety regulations. The word ironic doesn't quite get to the magnitude does it?

Posted by: lmsinca | September 2, 2010 2:24 PM | Report abuse

Mike from Arlington

If we give Amnesty to all the illegal aliens, in 20 years the economy will need to have 100 million jobs for them and their children.


Have you figured out where those jobs are coming from?

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 2:26 PM | Report abuse

Imsinca, thank you for associating Obama's name with this most recent disaster.

Posted by: daveredhat | September 2, 2010 2:27 PM | Report abuse

mike, whatever regard there may have existed for the deficit commission seems to be slipping away rather quickly. The guy's a loose cannon and AFAIC not to be taken seriously.

Posted by: lmsinca | September 2, 2010 2:29 PM | Report abuse

"Did you see that the Mariner Energy had a big rally yesterday complaining about Obama and safety regulations. "

I did not. Ironic indeed. Break out the Magic Dispersants and:

Drill Baby Drill!

I supposed this will make energy legislation even MORE improbable. That being so, anyone else suspect Big Oil of blowing these things up on purpose? A few more oil rig disasters and Congress will swear eternal devotion to oil.

Posted by: wbgonne | September 2, 2010 2:30 PM | Report abuse

Hey Save, are you saying the U.S. population of 300 million plus the 50 million illegal aliens will be 600 million plus the 100 million illegal aliens?

So we're going to have to create 400 million jobs in 20 years?

20 million jobs a year on average!

Even Ronaldus Maximus Reaganus couldn't do that!

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 2:31 PM | Report abuse

WE'RE DOOMED!

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 2:31 PM | Report abuse

Mike from Arlington


Did you figure out where those 100 million jobs for illegal aliens are coming from ???


Maybe you can google it - and magically 100 million jobs for the illegals and their families will instantly appear.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 2:33 PM | Report abuse

Don't forget the 300 million jobs needed for regular Americans SavetheRainforests.

Even without the illegal immigrants, even Republicans superhero Reagan couldn't keep up with that kind of job creation if we go by your simple logic.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 2:36 PM | Report abuse

@Mike: he/she didn't exactly answer your question, did they?

Apparently in addition to being a climate scientist and a lawyer, STR is also a demographer.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 2:36 PM | Report abuse

schrodingerscat


That actually is a really good name.


You do realize though - the issue at hand was whether the cat was alive or dead.


.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 2:36 PM | Report abuse

That is why I have always liked Alan Simpson; he is an equal opportunity Old Crank.

He and I are on opposite ends of the political spectrum, but I still like the guy. He is not one of your modern blow dried, every word pre-tested, sort of a guy. From Cody Wyoming, I believe, and a bit of the old western frontier attitude still bubbles up in him, from time to time.

I am waiting for his next rant against free loading babies, who do not even bother to try and find jobs.

You tell them Alan. Your brother Abe says that he is with you all the way, and has hung an onion from his belt, to show solidarity with you, in what ever dad-gummed crazy stances you choose to take.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 2:37 PM | Report abuse

Dr. Doom Obama and his regulators have struck again.

Once more oil seeps into the gulf.

Posted by: daveredhat | September 2, 2010 2:40 PM | Report abuse

Liam, he sort of reminds me of my grandpa who used to give me old toilet paper cardboard rolls for my birthday and called them "toot-toot"'s. Maybe by Dec. he'll be sitting by the fire with his feet up in permanent retirement.

Posted by: lmsinca | September 2, 2010 2:41 PM | Report abuse

Mike from Arlington

That is precisely may point about "Comprehensive Immigration Reform"


It would be great if we could welcome everyone - give them free health care, a free house and legalize them all.

But the truth is BIRTHRATE - in 20 years, 50 million illegal aliens turn into 100 million people looking for jobs.

Where are we getting all those jobs?


This "comprehensive immigration reform" could turn into a "comprehensive mess"

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 2:42 PM | Report abuse

"Dr. Doom Obama and his regulators have struck again.

Once more oil seeps into the gulf."

lolol

That's like saying Bush was responsible for the levy failing in New Orleans.

Or do you want to go there?

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Liam-still | September 2, 2010 2:02 PM


Well what is "Predominantly white" code word for?


It must be "we can't wait for someone to look like a racist so we can put it on tv"

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 2:44 PM | Report abuse

lmsinca:

I, for one, prefer to post on topic -- but that's just me and Chris Cilizza -- there's nothing wrong with off-topic rants (I think if EVERYONE posts off-topic, the quicker Greg Sargent gets fired ; )

Posted by: JakeD2 | September 2, 2010 2:45 PM | Report abuse

Dave, do you have something to say or are you just on your lunch break from McDonalds?

Posted by: lmsinca | September 2, 2010 2:45 PM | Report abuse

"But the truth is BIRTHRATE - in 20 years"

Like I said. Our population of Americans is a little over 300 million so that means it'll be 600 million by your calculations.

300 million more jobs in 20 years is 15 million jobs a year on average. More than 1 million jobs a month.

Think about that when you think about what you're saying.

At that point a light bulb might ignite in your brain, but maybe not.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse

Well, Right Winger

If you want that many millions of jobs created, you better vote for Democrats, since Republicans usually create Economic Depressions, and Great Recessions, which kill jobs, instead creating them.

John McCain said, in 2008, that undocumented workers take jobs that Americans will not do. He said that Americans would not pick lettuce and other crops, even if they were paid $50.00 per hour to do so.

Stop scapegoating hard working people who are paid starvation wages, to bring fresh produce and fruits to your table.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4HHsm7gVKw

"Plane Wreck At Los Gatos
(also known as Deportee)

The crops are all in and the peaches are rott'ning,
The oranges piled in their creosote dumps;
They're flying 'em back to the Mexican border
To pay all their money to wade back again

Goodbye to my Juan, goodbye, Rosalita,
Adios mis amigos, Jesus y Maria;
You won't have your names when you ride the big airplane,
All they will call you will be "deportees"

My father's own father, he waded that river,
They took all the money he made in his life;
My brothers and sisters come working the fruit trees,
And they rode the truck till they took down and died.

Some of us are illegal, and some are not wanted,
Our work contract's out and we have to move on;
Six hundred miles to that Mexican border,
They chase us like outlaws, like rustlers, like thieves.

We died in your hills, we died in your deserts,
We died in your valleys and died on your plains.
We died 'neath your trees and we died in your bushes,
Both sides of the river, we died just the same.

The sky plane caught fire over Los Gatos Canyon,
A fireball of lightning, and shook all our hills,
Who are all these friends, all scattered like dry leaves?
The radio says, "They are just deportees"

Is this the best way we can grow our big orchards?
Is this the best way we can grow our good fruit?
To fall like dry leaves to rot on my topsoil
And be called by no name except "deportees"?"

Woodie Guthrie

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse

@mike...

For a second time? You would think that Obama MIGHT want to pay a little attention to oil rig safety after what we just went through.

And as imsinca pointed out, this very company held a protest yesterday about Obama's ineffectual safety regulations.

But go ahead and beat the "blame Bush" drum one more time.

Posted by: daveredhat | September 2, 2010 2:48 PM | Report abuse

SaveTheRainforest, you realize you're the only one talking about racism.

Do you want us to call you a racist so you can see your prophecy fulfilled of Dems always turning to racism? Is that how your mind works?

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 2:48 PM | Report abuse

Obama has reported Arizona to the United Nations - for human rights violations.


So - let me get this right - the Federal Government wrote the immigration laws.


Arizona is ONLY enforcing that law with probably cause.


However the rules for the FEDERAL ICE in Immigration Enforcement are much STRICTER THAN ARIZONA.

So, by this logic, Obama should be turning himself in.


.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 2:48 PM | Report abuse

"And as imsinca pointed out, this very company held a protest yesterday about Obama's ineffectual safety regulations."

No, the moratorium on deep water drilling. They wanted some reassurance oil companies came up with a better plan than stuff crap in the hole and stall until 2 months of drilling relief wells is done.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 2:53 PM | Report abuse

Mike from Arlington

I am not talking about racism


I am talking about making false charges of racism - as a means to attack one's opponents.


This is a major issue in America today.


Obama gets elected - promising to make America more post-racial


AND what do the democrats do? They green-light making false charges of racism all over the place -


Since Obama has been elected, all we hear from democrats is that this person or that person MUST be a racist -


OR a policy difference ISN'T real - it is really rooted in racism.


YOU want to know WHY Larry Sabado has these numbers?

YOU want to know WHY thousands of democrats downticket will lose this year ?


That is why.


.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 2:53 PM | Report abuse

Hey so, SaveTheRainforests, are you some sort of environmentalist?

That's neat.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

lmsinca

Alan has reached a stage where he just has to let his rants out, even if they make no sense.

He called people on Social Security; "Greedy Old Codgers", while he has accept a far larger Federal Pension, for many years. I love the guy. He makes my day, because every time I think I have reached the heights of Old Crankiness, Alan comes along, and shows how far I have still to travel.

Alan needs to find a house with a big front lawn, and lots of kids on the block to yell at.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 2:55 PM | Report abuse

SaveTheRainforest, still, only you are talking about racism.

Well, I am too now. That's funny isn't it?

This is fun isn't it?

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 2:55 PM | Report abuse

"You do realize though - the issue at hand was whether the cat was alive or dead."

No, the issue at hand was at what POINT did the cat became either alive or dead.

Beyond that, what was your point?

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 2:56 PM | Report abuse

"But go ahead and beat the "blame Bush" drum one more time."

Nobody's blaming Bush. It seems these rig operators are idiots that can't follow rules as was proven on the Deep Horizon rig.

The only blame the previous admin gets is allowing the MMS to become as corrupted as it got. Just one more mess Obama has had to clean up.

It's like every time a stone is lifted there's a big dirty W waitin' for some straitnin' up.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 2:59 PM | Report abuse

The same Right Wingers who were calling for President Obama to: "get his foot of the throat of British Petroleum", are now on here claiming to be upset, because he has not kept his foot on the throat of Oil Riggers, long and hard enough.

More Teabagger Logic, at it's finest. Even Quitter Palin would have a hard time "refudiating" it.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 3:00 PM | Report abuse

mikefromArlington at 2:46 PM


I don't believe you are serious about your point - but


The birthrates for different groups is different.


The QUESTION is whether we will give Amnesty or a path to 50 Million illegal aliens -


Most illegal aliens come to the United States when they are young - and have babies fairly quickly - and they have larger families than the rest of the population.


50 Million illegal aliens - in 20 years - will be 100 million people looking for jobs.


The numbers are the numbers - they will have kids and the kids grow up and eventually look for jobs.


100 million jobs in 20 years - WHERE ARE THOSE JOBS COMING FROM ?


Before you legalize these people, think about today, tomorrow, 10 years from now and 20 years from now.


It's nice to say, "let's be nice and give these people a path to citizenship" - but you HAVE to think about the economic effect over the next 20 years.
.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 3:02 PM | Report abuse

Liam, the one I always get a kick out of is right winger logic of wanting the President to do something about the economy then preaching the Govn't does too much and needs to get its hands out.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 3:02 PM | Report abuse

At last; someone is finally doing something about this fascist bastard:

"PHOENIX – The U.S. Justice Department sued Sheriff Joe Arpaio on Thursday, saying the Arizona lawman refused for more than a year to turn over records in an investigation into allegations his department discriminates against Hispanics.

The lawsuit calls Arpaio and his office's defiance "unprecedented," and said the federal government has been trying since March 2009 to get officials to comply with its probe of alleged discrimination, unconstitutional searches and seizures, and jail policies that discriminate against people with limited English skills"

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

"The QUESTION is whether we will give Amnesty or a path to 50 Million illegal aliens "

I thought the question was how ridiculous your logic was...

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 3:06 PM | Report abuse

"WHERE ARE THOSE JOBS COMING FROM ?"

Freemarket Enterprise right?

Demand for goods creates supply. Supply is generated by manufacturing of goods. Manufacturing of goods is supplied by the work force.

Econ 101. Relax. If they come, we will build it.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 3:06 PM | Report abuse

schrodingerscat


Yea, but you don't KNOW if the cat is alive or dead until you look at it.


And in your case, looks could kill, right?

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

@Mike...

The head of MMS at the time of the Deepwater Horizon disaster was an Obama appointee. She resigned in shame, and Obama promised to clean the agency up. Now we have yet another disaster. But go ahead and point fingers in all directions again.

Posted by: daveredhat | September 2, 2010 3:11 PM | Report abuse

schrodingerscat


500,000 people come to the Mall - you don't know if they are racist or not.


Until you look at their signs.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 3:11 PM | Report abuse

My Question Of The Day Is:

Will fans of Dancing With The Stars be willing to tune in to next year's competition, once that fourteen foot privacy fence is erected in front of the stage.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 3:12 PM | Report abuse

Being the party of high taxes, homosexuals, illegal "immigrants", and any religion BUT Christianity, I don't see how Democrats ever gain a majority.

I guess you can fool a whole bunch of people some of the time and sometimes that's all it takes.

Posted by: battleground51 | September 2, 2010 3:12 PM | Report abuse

"And in your case, looks could kill, right?"

Nice personal attack. Classy. Hit a nerve, did I?

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 3:14 PM | Report abuse

Mike from Arlington

Very good - except that Clinton and the democrats moved all the manufacturing to China and Indonesia


So that plan doesn't work........

100 million jobs in 20 years - NOT for the Americans here NOW -


But 100 million ADDITIONAL jobs BEYOND what we need for Americans and their children - in 20 years.


THAT is the CENTRAL ISSUE in "Comprehensive Immigration Reform"


Case closed - We can't do it - you have to be insane if you think that through and still want a "path to citizenship"


.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 3:17 PM | Report abuse

"500,000 people come to the Mall - you don't know if they are racist or not.


Until you look at their signs."

Again with the racist stuff. WTF are you even talking about?

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 3:17 PM | Report abuse

OT - I found this interesting. Apparently Politifact fact checked Glen Beck.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2010/aug/27/glenn-beck-faces-truth-o-meter/

Posted by: nisleib | September 2, 2010 3:17 PM | Report abuse

nisleib. You're back to cutting and pasting again I see.

Posted by: daveredhat | September 2, 2010 3:20 PM | Report abuse

"Being the party of high taxes, homosexuals, illegal "immigrants", and any religion BUT Christianity, I don't see how Democrats ever gain a majority."

The statement above makes you wonder which stupid Democrat thinks Republicans are winning the hearts and minds of gay voters in America.

sbj, care to inject your hypocrisy finding statements into this one?


Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 3:21 PM | Report abuse

SaveTheRainforest is stuck on racism or something.

He keeps going back to it.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse

Feeding frenzy at the Plum Line Troll Trough.

Posted by: suekzoo1 | September 2, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse

It is Obama who is responsible for the economic solutions -


What are Obama's economic solutions ??


1) Blame Bush


2) Waste Stimulus dollars


3) Call everyone a racist


That is pretty much Obama's economic policy.


.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse

I don't care about teaparty rallies, it is all paid for and promoted by corporations and, in Beck's case, the power-hungry Mormon church.

I don't care about Fox News (an oxymoron)or Rasmussen polls or what Rove's boy, Jonathan Martin, thinks or the latest attention-getter that Pushup-Bra Brainless tweet tweets.

I don't care that a majority of Republicans believe Obama is a Muslim, socialist, Marxist, or communist. Republicans think what they are instructed to think and that's what makes them so dangerous. If they had any reasoning power they would recognizing the foolishness of prioritizing deficit spending at a time when the American economy is at a standstill, unless they want to orchestrate another lost decade like we had under Bush.

I DO care about key elections and the grassroots organizing efforts to win them. And I'm really tired of this type of pessimism and victimhood.

Posted by: Beeliever | September 2, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse

Apparently, this isn't the "Hope-n-Change" Obumbles was looking for.

To quote Nelson from the Simpsons..."Haa Haa!".

Posted by: luca_20009 | September 2, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse

Did you know that Glenn Beck was an Alcoholic and Drug Addict. That would explain him becoming a Mormon.

As that grand old Dublin man, George Bernard Shaw observed:

"The problem with people who break habits is, most of them tend to then have the pieces mounted and framed ."

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 3:23 PM | Report abuse

"Call everyone a racist


That is pretty much Obama's economic policy."

I asked you above the first time you said this to please name ONE TIME that Obama said someone opposed his economic policies because they were racist. Since you never did and have instead chosen to repeat the accusation, I'll assume that you are a big, fat liar.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 3:28 PM | Report abuse

SaveTheRainforest is stuck on racism or something.

He keeps going back to it.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse
----------------------------------
Hey, if ya got nothing else to back your argument up, well, gotta play the racist card.

Bet you he plays the "I used to be a running back in high school. 4 touchdowns for Polk High!" when he'trolling the bars.

Posted by: luca_20009 | September 2, 2010 3:29 PM | Report abuse

daveredhat thinks Obama should of put on his Superman cape and stopped the workers from not following their own procedures!

Tell me another one daveredhat, I'm in stitches!

I'll tell you what daveredhat, before anyone starts pointing fingers, maybe we should wait for some news to come out of wtf happened.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 3:29 PM | Report abuse

see, even luca's got my back, and luca is a straight up teabagger.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 3:32 PM | Report abuse

daveredhat - It is called linking, not cutting and pasting.

Cutting and pasting means copying a pre-formulated comment (often from someone else) into a thread.

I've explained this to you before. Maybe you lack the brain capacity to understand. That would explain your politics ;)

Posted by: nisleib | September 2, 2010 3:33 PM | Report abuse

SaveTheRainForest double spaces between every sentence, like he was taking dictation from Jan Brewer.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 3:34 PM | Report abuse

@mike. I don't really need you to tell people what I think. I'd be happy to handle that myself.

In fact, here's one; I think you and other far-left hacks in here are directly responsible for this entire greasy black mess. (And before you cry racist, I'm talking about the oil spill.)

Posted by: daveredhat | September 2, 2010 3:36 PM | Report abuse

Actually nisleib, it's called "Off Topic."

Posted by: daveredhat | September 2, 2010 3:39 PM | Report abuse

@daveredhat: "You're back to cutting and pasting again I see."

I know you haven't been around this place for very long, but posting links to other sites/stories that we think the community might be interested in has always been common around here. Greg doesn't mind at all.

That's far different than just copying and pasting the same post over and over and over again as some people do. *cough*STR*cough*.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 3:41 PM | Report abuse

see, now daveredhat is talking about racism too.

Do you peeps want to talk about racism or something? I'm confused.

And, not to be outdone. I think the chicken came before the egg. So there!

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 3:41 PM | Report abuse

I do not believe Obama is a marxist - Obama doesn't understand economics at all.


I am a bit confused by the most recent controversy.


There is nothing wrong with being a muslim. Obama was raised a muslim. Obama speaks Indonesian. Obama went to Koran School for four years.

It is said that Obama can sing Islamic songs with a perfect Indonesian accent.


Obama once said that the muslim call to prayer is the "most beautiful sound in the world."

Let's just put it this way: Obama wasn't at the Disco Demolition Rally.

I don't care if Obama is a muslim or not - it really doesn't affect how bad his policies are.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 3:42 PM | Report abuse

daveredhat - Yes it is. If you look you'll see I started with this: OT

But look at this thread, the whole darn thing is OT.

Posted by: nisleib | September 2, 2010 3:43 PM | Report abuse

Thank you for condescending schrodingerscat, but it was still off topic. The topic here is how and why the democrat party is doomed.

Posted by: daveredhat | September 2, 2010 3:44 PM | Report abuse

Teabaggers now say that they are very upset with President Obama, because he should have; "put his foot on the throat of all the Oil Drillers, and kept it there".

Teabaggers keep calling for Government to not interfere with the running of corporations, and also keep calling for Government to regulate the hell out of of corporations.

Teabagger logic, at it's finest, folks.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse

Jan Brewer has the speaking skills of a long-time prescription drug addict. What a complete disaster!

Posted by: Beeliever | September 2, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse

"I do not believe Obama is a marxist - Obama doesn't understand economics at all. I am a bit confused by the most recent controversy. There is nothing wrong with being a muslim. Obama was raised a muslim. Obama speaks Indonesian. Obama went to Koran School for four years. It is said that Obama can sing Islamic songs with a perfect Indonesian accent. Obama once said that the muslim call to prayer is the "most beautiful sound in the world." Let's just put it this way: Obama wasn't at the Disco Demolition Rally. I don't care if Obama is a muslim or not - it really doesn't affect how bad his policies are."

OK SaveTheRainforest, I gotta ask after this out of the blue remark.

Are you high?

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 3:48 PM | Report abuse

The "False Charges of Racism" is a major reason the democratic party is doing so badly.


So that is on-topic.


First - I get slammed for explaining my positions.


Then - I get slammed for not supporting my positions -


So which is it?


.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 3:49 PM | Report abuse

@Beeliever...

And yet she's running even with Harry Reid.

Posted by: daveredhat | September 2, 2010 3:49 PM | Report abuse

Mike from Arlington

There is nothing wrong with being a muslim, so what is your point ?


What if Obama was a muslim? Or suddenly decided to go back to Islam after his Rev. Wright disaster?

Obama is a muslim - so what- explains why he wants to give the terrorists all lawyers.


Obama indicted a Pakistani Taliban leader - what is the point ? What is he going to do - put a lawyer on a plane to Pakistan?


This foreign policy of Obama - you should be asking him if he is high.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse

"Thank you for condescending schrodingerscat, but it was still off topic. "

I apologize if I came across as condescending, it was not my intention.

Having said that, I know it was OT, and even nisleib apparently knew it was OT since he actually typed "OT" before he provided the link. (Just FYI, that WAS intended to be condescending).

If you're so concerned about OT comments, feel free to pipe up at any time about STR and his/her latest rant about Obama being a Marxist and a Muslim. Go ahead....I'll wait.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse


Jan Brewer has the speaking skills of a long-time prescription drug addict. What a complete disaster!

Posted by: Beeliever | September 2, 2010 3:45 PM
...................

With her poor command of the English language, she better avoid getting too deep a tan, or Sheriff Joe Arpaio might round her up, and place her in one of his concentration camps.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 3:53 PM | Report abuse

daveredhat says, "And yet she's running even with Harry Reid."

I thought I was kidding when I said you lacked brain power, maybe I wasn't.

Just for the record, Harry Reid is not running against Jan Brewer.

Posted by: nisleib | September 2, 2010 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Glenn Beck was not raised a Mormon, so according to Teabagger Logic, he is not to be believe when he claims that he became one, as an adult.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse

OK. I'm convinced. You're either stoned or drunk.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 3:56 PM | Report abuse

New thread up on Brewer's debate performance last night: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/09/jan_brewers_terribly_awkward_d.html

Posted by: Adam Serwer | September 2, 2010 3:56 PM | Report abuse

I am simply giving the reasons for why the democratic party is in such a bad situation that it will lose thousands of races this November - causing the demise of the party.


The Republican party will split into two - and those two parties will rule for the next 200 years.

.

Posted by: SaveTheRainforest | September 2, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

"The Republican party will split into two - and those two parties will rule for the next 200 years."

Yeah, after that comment, I'm going with Mike's theory.

Posted by: schrodingerscat | September 2, 2010 4:00 PM | Report abuse

SaveTheRainforest,

Look at the majorities Democrats have in the House and Senate. Republicans have never held those majorities.

Just food for thought. Don't choke on it.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | September 2, 2010 4:03 PM | Report abuse

To get out jobs back we need the type of TARIFFS we had in the 1950's and 1960's when we had great jobs.

Which party has the guts to stand up to the anti-American globalists who want to bankrupt American with anti-American so-called "free trade"?

Posted by: santafe2 | September 2, 2010 4:04 PM | Report abuse

suekzoo1--
"Feeding frenzy at the Plum Line Troll Trough"

Ha! Ain't that the truth.

Here's a Luckovich cartoon, completely unrelated to the various discussions, so forgive me. But I think it'll make some of you smile:

http://blogs.ajc.com/mike-luckovich/2010/09/01/92-cartoon-mike-luckovich-on-oval-office-decor/

Posted by: carolanne528 | September 2, 2010 4:04 PM | Report abuse

Republicans are counting on persuading the voters that they should give The Republican Kevorkians an other shot at treating the patient.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 4:05 PM | Report abuse

Here's a Luckovich cartoon, completely unrelated to the various discussions, so forgive me. But I think it'll make some of you smile:

http://blogs.ajc.com/mike-luckovich/2010/09/01/92-cartoon-mike-luckovich-on-oval-office-decor/

Posted by: carolanne528 | September 2, 2010 4:04 PM

...............

Right on target. Any day now, the Beck/Palin/Hagee Axis Of Boll Weevils, will start claiming that President Obama has converted The Lincoln Bedroom into A Mosque.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 4:11 PM | Report abuse

@ daveredhat: "And yet she's running even with Harry Reid."

Seriously dude? I guess you need to take an American geography class because Arizona and Nevada are not the same state.

Jan Brewer is Arizona's pathetic race-profiling governor who choked during her opening remarks. Harry Reid is the Senator from Nevada, who is very capable of giving his opening remarks if his teaparty opponent wasn't too chicken-a$$ to debate him or even speak to the general media because she knows she will be exposed as the extremist nutcase that she is. And if she ever does agree to debate Reid, Sharron Angle's numbers will fall overnight.

Angle is the typical teaparty run-and-hide wuss just like her friend Rand Paul in Kentucky (that would be another state).

Posted by: Beeliever | September 2, 2010 4:14 PM | Report abuse

Well, A Republican Governor of one State, running for a Senate seat in another State, in order to be reelected Governor in her own state, makes perfect sense to most Teabagger types.

Posted by: Liam-still | September 2, 2010 4:16 PM | Report abuse

by all means, hurl you vituperative comments in the general direction of Jan Brewer. Americans could use a daily reminder of just how nasty the hard core left is. Thanks for providing it here.

next, who will win in the Arizona govenor's race?

My take on the "down ticket" issue is based on what I'm seeing in Ohio. The situation is dire. The Democrat govenor is a goner. So is the Democrat candidate for Senate. I suspect that the Sec'y of State will not win re election either. I doubt that the house will change hands but the senate might here. Further several of the congressional seats that are up for grabs will switch to R this time around. Even such stalwarts as Kaptur and Sutton are in the race of their careers.

Kaptur because she actively assisted a profit making company in its efforts to circumvent the Dem's ear mark rule and sutton because she sucks and now faces a wealthy self funder.

However the electorate will, I think, keep the Republicans on a short leash. When liberals complain about the spending that occurred during the Bush years they often forget that conservative anger at that spending helped to propel Democrat majorities. Now in a few short years the Democrats are throwing away the good will of the people in their drastic lurch to the far left.

Politically, America will be a different place in 2011.

Posted by: skipsailing28 | September 2, 2010 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Liam,

Maybe the teabag cult will want to change the Constitution to make that happen, while they are changing the 1st and 14th Amendments.

Posted by: Beeliever | September 2, 2010 4:29 PM | Report abuse

You would have to be either an absolute imbecile or a flaming dumboturd not to have seen this coming from day one. Totally inexperienced. Totally incompetent. Totally extreme left wing. Combined with an unwarranted ego that makes me think he actually believes he's accomplished a single thing in his entire life without the affirmative action thingy being completely responsible every step of the way. Adios morons!!!

Posted by: Bcamp55 | September 2, 2010 5:33 PM | Report abuse

Bcamp55:

Apparently, Mr. Sewer thinks that the extreme left wing did not "overreach" because, you see, they didn't get EVERYTHING they wanted!!! Adios indeed.

LOL

Posted by: JakeD2 | September 2, 2010 5:46 PM | Report abuse

@ Kevin_Willis | September 2, 2010 2:24 PM:

I also suspect they all have districts in their likely incumbent party hold columns that that if you pinned them down they'd admit are realistically a very, very long shot at best for the challenger. And while I'm sure they do it mostly just to hedge their bets, it does have the effect of padding their stats as well. If we eliminated those outside chance columns and recalculated, you'd probably have to start wondering why anyone ever listens to any of these guys ever, when you could just write down names on a piece of paper and throw darts at it instead.

Cook still has his House and senate projections from the 2008 race archived on his web site. About a month or so ago I compared his House race handicapping from the same week in '08 to election results and it wasn't pretty. I think Democrats won like 2 out of 3 races in his Leans Republican column, 3 out of 4 of his toss-ups (several of which were blowouts) and 8 or 9 out of ten from the Leans Democratic column. I just fervently hope that his prognostications for this election turn out to be as bad as the last two.

Posted by: CalD | September 2, 2010 6:03 PM | Report abuse

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