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How grim is the House map for Dems? Very.

In case you wondered how hard it will be for Dems to hold on to the House, this nugget from today's Post's analysis makes it pretty clear:

In the House, Republicans need 39 seats to win back the majority that they lost four years ago and are competing on an enormous playing field heavily tilted in their direction.

According to The Post's analysis, 19 Democratic-held seats currently lean toward the Republicans, and Democratic strategists all but concede those contests. An additional 47 Democrat-held districts are considered tossups, while 38 other Democrat-held seats, while leaning toward the Democratic candidate, remain in potential jeopardy. Meanwhile, just four Republican-held seats appear truly competitive -- three leaning toward the Democrats and one considered too close to call.

Okay, so let's assume for the sake of argument that Dems win all four GOP-held seats that are truly competitive. That would mean Republicans need to win 43 seats to flip the House.

Right now, according to the above analysis, Dems are already pretty much conceding 19 seats. If that number holds, that would mean Republicans need another 24 to get to 43.

Meanwhile, the analysis finds, there are a total of 85 Dem-held seats that are true toss-ups (47 seats) or in potential jeopardy (38 seats). That means the 24 Republicans need to win constitute less than a third of those.

Put another way, Dems need to win 62 of those 85 races to hold the House.

Not impossible, given that some of those seats in jeopardy are leaning towards Dems. But pretty grim.


UPDATE, 1:13 p.m.: One other thing: Even if you give Dems wins in all the 38 seats that are merely in jeopardy, the 24 seats Republicans need in this scenario would only amount to just over half the 47 true toss-ups.

By Greg Sargent  | October 31, 2010; 1:00 PM ET
Categories:  2010 elections, House Dems, House GOPers  
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Next: Alaska station says Breitbart Web site audio attack is bogus

Comments

Everyone told Obama - the blogs were ablaze - everyone told Obama after Scott Brown was elected - that the House would go to the Republicans if Obama pressed ahead with health care.

Obama responded with arrogance.


The American People do not want the health care bill, they want it repealed. The only way is to take away the House from Obama. And proceed to take away the Senate and elect a Republican to be President in 2012.


Is the response still more arrogance?


There is a fundamental REJECTION of Obama's policies. Get it?

.

Posted by: SummerBreeeze | October 31, 2010 1:17 PM | Report abuse

The closeness of all of these races shows why it is critical for all progressives and independents who want our government to still be run by sanity for the next two years to help the Democrats get out their vote now! Sign up here.

http://www.winningprogressive.org/turn-off-your-computer-%e2%80%93-and-get-out-the-vote-for-the-democrats

Posted by: WinningProgressive | October 31, 2010 1:18 PM | Report abuse

The House numbers are truly grim. Intrade has the probability of the Republicans taking the House as 92%. I wouldn't put much stock on Intrade months before the election, but the odds (set by buyers & sellers) are more predictive with days to the election.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | October 31, 2010 1:20 PM | Report abuse

I dare anyone to add up all the taxes you pay - start with your paycheck. Then add in all the sales taxes you pay. Then any Federal income taxes you pay in addition to your paycheck.

Then add in your property taxes. Don't forget the taxes you paid when you bought your car - if you have your car for 5 years, add in one-fifth of that amount for the year.


What is that number???


________________________________


NOW I dare you to call your town and find out how big their yearly budget is.

Call the County - ask them how much the County and the county agencies are spending in their yearly budgets.


Then look on up on the internet what your State is spending every year.


Then you can add in the Federal spending of 1.3 Trillion.


________________________________


Do you think the government could run on HALF that amount?

It could, and few people would even notice.


.

Posted by: SummerBreeeze | October 31, 2010 1:24 PM | Report abuse

clawrence12 wrote,
"the White House is up for grabs in 2012 too."

rukidding7 wrote,
"I think by 2012 ... barring some unforeseen catastrophe of 9/11 proportion, Caribou Barbie will not actually run."
---------

What about the one who describes himself as a mongrel? Will he run? I've always suspected he was a cur.

Posted by: Brigade | October 31, 2010 1:31 PM | Report abuse

HOUSE

Obama blew it - he had a workable majority but now Obama will be the poster-child for classic overreach.

Didn't Obama go to Harvard, and was supposed to be sooooooo smart???


Doesn't seem that way.


.

Posted by: SummerBreeeze | October 31, 2010 1:37 PM | Report abuse

Breitbart is a bigoted,divisive,bomb throwing,hate monger and propaganda artist ,who along with Fox"news",T/Baggers and now even the pandering main stream Republicans who have poisoned our political system and government with threats of violence ,real violence and over the top bigoted,vitriolic lies, hate and the dehumanizing of all that they disagree with or deem unworthy!This hiring is just more of the Work/Welfare Program for the rightwing hacks of hate, paid for by the Chamber of Commerce,News Corp and the Wallstreet Corporate Cretins that Bankrupted America and got richer after blackmailing America for bailouts and more tax cuts for the rich!

Posted by: sjo123452000 | October 31, 2010
---------

LOL. The wheels are coming off the liberal hate machine. Tick tock. Tick tock.

Posted by: Brigade | October 31, 2010 1:39 PM | Report abuse

Looks like another Andrew Breitbart audio production is about to be unmasked as bogus:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/10/alaska_station_denies_big_gove.html

Posted by: Greg Sargent | October 31, 2010 1:42 PM | Report abuse

Grim? I'll tell you what is GRIM.

We don't have a parliamentary system and Obama won't be out of office on Wednesday morning.

Obama has lost the support of the American People. The right thing to do would be to resign and allow the government to be run properly.

Obama has proven he can not handle the job.

Obama's mismanagement of the democratic party is only exceeded by Obama's mismanagement of the country and the economy. In an economic crisis, the nation needs a completely different person who will focus on the economy and not be motivated by Arrogance and a Left Wing Agenda which the country does not want.

Posted by: SummerBreeeze | October 31, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Not much action on today's threads. I guess depression is finally settling in. The cat has gotten the liberal tongue. The only subject that never seems to run out of steam is the nonsense about blocking people, banning people, and reformatting the blog. If only there were a thread devoted entirely to that subject, it would surely have about 6,000 comments by now.

Posted by: Brigade | October 31, 2010 1:46 PM | Report abuse

Brigade, re: activity. There are multiple threads, it's Halloween, it's a gorgeous fall day in much of the country, good NFL games. I'm on once in awhile only because I'm working.

Posted by: KathleenHusseininMaine | October 31, 2010 2:16 PM | Report abuse

Until the last bit, you seem to assume a bias in predictions if favor of incumbents so you call a Republican incumbent toss up a gain for the Dems (clearly for the sake of argument) and count Lean Dem as tossup.

this is close to the last bit of your post, but I would do the following. First interpret lean as as solid lead. In practice this fits Cooke's practice, although I have no idea about the W post. Then, first interpret solid lead as certain win, so before getting to tossups the Republicans gain 16. There are 47 Dem held toss ups 46 more than the one Rep held tossup. So if the tossups split 50 50, the Republicans gain
oh my
39 and control the house 218 to 217.

Hmm ok what if lean means 90% chance (I think this is actually close to what happens when Cooke says lean but one should check at fivethirtyeight at a news source which must not be mentioned here).

OK 19 lean R 50 lean D so 31 more lean D. Moving from 100% down to 90% gives Republicans pick up 3.1 more for an expected gain of 42.1 . These numbers are the best numbers for the Dems that I have ever seen. Better, for example, than predicted based only on past elections and GNP growth (Reps gain 45).

Now I'd say the numbers are not really such good news for Dems. I assumed that a huge range of probabilities are called tossups. If so, while splitting toss ups 50%-50% is the only way to interpret the word, the true average probability of a "tossup" could, in theory be an 89% probability of a Republican win.

Posted by: rjw88 | October 31, 2010 3:21 PM | Report abuse

Seems the liberal tongue is busy obtaining pledges to turn out from those unpolled, unlikely Democratic voters on Plouffe's list.

Posted by: bvision | October 31, 2010 4:28 PM | Report abuse

I know what you liberal Democrats are doing now. You are setting your people up to expect such an overwhelming, miserable blowout that anything short of complete failure by the Obamacrats will be hailed as a victory.

You're busted!

Posted by: battleground51 | October 31, 2010 4:44 PM | Report abuse

I actually wouldn't be terribly shocked if Democrats ended up hanging on the the House, albeit not by much. I will however be pretty surprised if Republicans don't significantly under-perform some of these higher-flying expectations that are flying around in any event.

Of course I've been surprised before, and one of the reasons I love watching politics in the first place is that it's always full of surprises -- some of which, admittedly, can be quite nasty. So who knows.

Posted by: CalD | October 31, 2010 6:34 PM | Report abuse

"How grim is the House map for Dems? Very."

Yay!

Always good news on the Plumline!

Posted by: Kevin_Willis | October 31, 2010 10:23 PM | Report abuse

"The American People do not want the health care bill, they want it repealed"

Given that at least as many Americans unhappy with the bill are unhappy because it does not go far enough to a government sponsored single payer option as those who don't want anything to change, you simply don't know your a$$ from a hole in the wall.

Posted by: akaoddjob | November 1, 2010 1:34 AM | Report abuse

The GOP is even less popular than the Dems. If the GOP wins the House back there will be an ENORMOUS backlash in just a very few years, as Americans reap an ENORMOUS crop of buyers' remorse.

Today's GOP is UTTERLY bereft of any ideas for solving the problems of today's America. As long as that remains the case, only the old, the uneducated, the white, and the wealthy will vote GOP.

That is to say, the GOP is YESTERDAY'S (i.e., the 1980s') answer to America's problems. It is NOT today's answer to our problems.

Any thinking American knows that!

Posted by: akaoddjob | November 1, 2010 1:41 AM | Report abuse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnUfPQVOqpw

Posted by: akaoddjob | November 1, 2010 1:43 AM | Report abuse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlBOv8m_Xa8&feature=share

Posted by: akaoddjob | November 1, 2010 1:46 AM | Report abuse

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