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Dem internal poll: Murray leads Rossi, 51-44

There's been some chatter this morning about a poll from a Dem firm showing Senator Patty Murray losing by two points to challenger Dino Rossi, but now the DSCC is pushing back with a new poll of its own showing Murray up by seven.

The new DSCC poll -- conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz -- and sent my way -- shows Murray ahead 51-44 among likely voters. It also finds Murray is regarded favorably, 50-48, while Rossi's favorability numbers are reversed, 45-51.

This counters a poll released today by the Dem firm Public Policy Polling, which found Rossi leading 50-48. Also worrisome for Murray, according to PPP: Rossi is leading among those who have already returned ballots, 52-47, and the enthusiasm gap in Washington State is among the most "severe" in the country.

But the DSCC is pushing back on the enthusiasm gap talk by pointing out that their get out the vote efforts are already robust: They count 60,000 doors knocked over the weekend, on track for the final goal of 150,000, and the DSCC says it's also on track to meet its goal of 120,000 direct quotes to voters.

The selective release of internal polls on both sides is part of a delicate spin dance designed to depress the vote on the other side while keeping enthusiasm high on your own. But the DSCC's poll today does have the virtue of mirroring four other polls released last week showing Murray ahead, though mostly by closer margins.

While many prognosticators have predicted a Murray win, the tightness of the race has given some pause, because this contest has long been seen as a must-win by Dems as a firewall against GOP control of the Senate.

By Greg Sargent  | November 1, 2010; 1:39 PM ET
Categories:  2010 elections, Senate Dems, Senate Republicans  
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Next: Sarah Palin, defenseless victim of lamestream media

Comments

I can not believe the DNC is running an ad today with Obama front and center - effectively nationalizing the election again.

It is a really stupid thing to do.


Then the DNC ad goes onto a negative message, which makes little sense - listing that Wall Street and the oil interests will have less regulation if the Republicans win.


Absolutely no mention of ANYTHING Obama intends to do if the voters vote for the democrats.


That complete lack of a message is UNBELIEVABLE. It is unprecedented in American History.


Vote for me, "but I have no reason."


Ouch, it just goes directly to the confused message and directly to Obama's complete incompetence.


.

Posted by: BlueSkiesForever | November 1, 2010 1:40 PM | Report abuse

This is SO internal, the Dems pulled it out of their @ss!

Posted by: JakeD2 | November 1, 2010 1:42 PM | Report abuse

The Tea Party is demanding an apocalyptic showdown? Which politician was it who recently told his supporters to "punish their enemies"?

Posted by: tomtildrum at 1:26 PM


__________________________-

Excellent Point It's getting difficult to continue to take these clowns seriously.


.

Posted by: BlueSkiesForever | November 1, 2010 1:48 PM | Report abuse

Internal polls are just campaign advertising.

Posted by: shrink2 | November 1, 2010 1:54 PM | Report abuse

I see Sybil and JakeD2 are up to their usual spamming today.
~

Posted by: ifthethunderdontgetya | November 1, 2010 1:56 PM | Report abuse

Greg:

Would you please publish the full DSCC poll details you received -- since you even know that it was conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz -- so we can all look at the cross tabs?

Posted by: JakeD2 | November 1, 2010 2:00 PM | Report abuse

Simply pointing out that if Obama really believes in the European Socialist Parliamentary model - and he really believes that model is best for America - Obama should take that cue and resign on Wednesday morning after the democrats lose control of the House.


Pretty simple idea - if you lose a majority, you are out, and someone else gets to do it right.


Obama should resign on Wednesday morning. It is about time the country is united under that one idea.


.

Posted by: BlueSkiesForever | November 1, 2010 2:03 PM | Report abuse

Sorry if that small request is too much "bad news" for the Dems here. You'd better not read the NYT then:

5 Reasons Republicans Could Do Even Better Than Expected

By NATE SILVER

Dawn breaks over New York City on Wednesday, Nov. 3. Democrats catching the early train to work are thinking about adding a little whiskey to their morning coffee. Because the headlines they are reading are truly terrible.

Not only did Republicans take over the House, but they also did so going away — winning a net of 78 seats from Democrats. Seven seats in New York State changed hands; so did six in Pennsylvania, five in Ohio and four in North Carolina. Party luminaries like Jim Oberstar and Raul Grijalva were defeated. Barney Frank and Dennis Kucinich survived, but they did so by just 2 points apiece, and their elections weren’t called until 1 a.m. Democrats picked up just one Republican-held seat — the open seat in Delaware — but Joseph Cao somehow survived in his very Democratic-leaning district in New Orleans. Virtually every race deemed to be a tossup broke to the Republican.

The news isn’t much better in the Senate. The Democratic candidates in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Illinois all lost, flipping those seats to red from blue. So did Harry Reid in Nevada and Joe Manchin in West Virginia; both of them lost by 7 points, in fact. Washington State isn’t finished counting its ballots, but Dino Rossi has about a 30,000-vote lead over Patty Murray, and looks likely to prevail. California isn’t done counting either, and the race between Barbara Boxer and Carly Firoina remains too close to call. It might not matter anyway: Joseph I. Lieberman has scheduled a press conference for later that afternoon, and is expected to announce that — after seeing the strength of the mandate the voters have given the G.O.P. — he’ll begin conferencing with Republicans when Congress reconvenes in January.

Races for governor provide little respite. Jerry Brown beat Meg Whitman in California — one of the few positives that Democrats can take out of the night. But Democrats lost the close races in Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon and Connecticut, and were blown out in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Rick Perry, while expected to win in Texas, did so by a surprisingly large margin — nearly 20 points — and is making the rounds on the morning shows; the whispers are that he could be a Presidential contender.

Posted by: JakeD2 | November 1, 2010 2:05 PM | Report abuse

Greg - The troll poo here is untenable.

Posted by: nisleib | November 1, 2010 2:05 PM | Report abuse

Greg

nisleib is guilty of a personal attack at 1;30 on the previous thread and should be banned immediately.

In fact, all the personal attacks and nasty comments of the liberals should result in banning of those people.

That would improve the atmosphere on this blog - and remove the whining.

Simply requesting an even-handed enforcement of the rules.

And the personal attacks are the foremost problem - the democrats constantly attacking others personally. Demands and Suggestions that another poster be ignored should be deemed a personal attack and result in an immediate banning.


.

Posted by: BlueSkiesForever | November 1, 2010 2:09 PM | Report abuse

New FOX poll of all things out today has Murray ahead 49% to 47% so this race is close but Murray most likely will win in the end.

Posted by: maritza1 | November 1, 2010 2:10 PM | Report abuse

JakeD2, that excerpt you posted from Nate Silver's blog is just the first part of a pair he announced he would do. The second part will be about "how Democrats might overperform expectations". It's about him covering all the angles of how this could shake out. Try to exemplify some integrity from now on.

Posted by: B2O2 | November 1, 2010 2:11 PM | Report abuse

I wouldn't call Nate Silver's analysis "troll poo" but if you insist ...

Posted by: JakeD2 | November 1, 2010 2:13 PM | Report abuse

B2O2:

If you want to post the entire NYT for a week here, be my guest.

Posted by: JakeD2 | November 1, 2010 2:15 PM | Report abuse

Demands and Suggestions that another poster be ignored should be deemed a personal attack and result in an immediate banning
------------------------
Troll Hunter script that deletes this poster:

downloaded 76 times and counting.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | November 1, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

To call Joke a joke would be an insult to jokes.

Posted by: Observer691 | November 1, 2010 2:18 PM | Report abuse

Mike from Arlington writes

"They hate any parts that have to do with general welfare of our country and the power of Congress to enable laws to regulate commerce so all Americans don't get the short end of the stick."


______________________________

that is the point: regulating commerce is just that, regulating commerce


the ability to "regulate" transactions is not an invitation to re-distribute wealth.

Posted by: BlueSkiesForever | November 1, 2010 2:18 PM | Report abuse

This blog is a great now that I can just skip numbnuts posts thanks to Troll Hunter.

It's as though the troll doesn't exist.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | November 1, 2010 2:27 PM | Report abuse

Greg

Here's a pretty scary ad to end the election season on and it may be worth a post. Crazy fear mongering, lies and distortions.

http://thinkprogress.org/2010/11/01/breaking-point-infomerical/

Posted by: lmsinca | November 1, 2010 2:28 PM | Report abuse

It's as though the troll doesn't exist.
----------------------
It's like we put the troll into a soundproof room and pulled the curtains too. Can't see, can't hear.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | November 1, 2010 2:30 PM | Report abuse

This sounds reasonable


Greg - you can add 12BarBlues to the ban list because she has been stalking someone on this blog for months now.


__________________________

Greg

nisleib is guilty of a personal attack at 1;30 on the previous thread and should be banned immediately.

In fact, all the personal attacks and nasty comments of the liberals should result in banning of those people.

That would improve the atmosphere on this blog - and remove the whining.

Simply requesting an even-handed enforcement of the rules.

And the personal attacks are the foremost problem - the democrats constantly attacking others personally. Demands and Suggestions that another poster be ignored should be deemed a personal attack and result in an immediate banning.


.

Posted by: ConnecticutMadness | November 1, 2010 2:32 PM | Report abuse

Oh and lmsinca, the rally was great. My other half and I had a great time. Crowd was fun. Stewart and Colbert pulled it off which was something I was worried about...them being out of their element and all.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | November 1, 2010 2:32 PM | Report abuse

badCom[10]='ConnecticutMadness';

lol

Posted by: mikefromArlington | November 1, 2010 2:35 PM | Report abuse

Kevin:

"downloaded 76 times and counting."

Just curious...I assume that this is just the same few people downloading it every time you add a new name. It's not 76 unique downloads, is it?

Posted by: ScottC3 | November 1, 2010 2:35 PM | Report abuse

You guys know how to change the names on the script, right?

Posted by: DDAWD | November 1, 2010 2:41 PM | Report abuse

SaveTheRainForest, or Blue Skies, or Connecticut Madness or whatever you are calling yourself.

I'm not the one calling you a "Retarded Assh0le." Everyone is calling you that. In fact, that is your title. You are THE Plum Line Retarded Assh0le. You've earned the title, you should rejoice in it.

Personally I think it is a tad wrong. Really, most retarded people are a good deal smarter than you are and are not at all assh0lish like you.

Posted by: nisleib | November 1, 2010 2:42 PM | Report abuse

Scott, well, Kevin has probably downloaded it once maybe.

There's probably 7-10 others that have downloaded it or so.

I don't download it because it takes me all of 5 seconds to hit-Tools-Greasemonkey-Mange User scripts- Click Edit, scroll down in text editor and add one more line to the portion that starts with badCom.

For those wanting to edit your own script, you first have to choose an editor. When asked, navigate to C:\WINDOWS\system32 find the Notepad.exe icon and choose it.

From there, just follow my instructions above. Once you see the lines beginning with badCom, it'll be obvious what to add. After you make the change, just hit file/save on the file and you're done. No need to load or restart anything.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | November 1, 2010 2:43 PM | Report abuse

You guys know how to change the names on the script, right?
----------------------------
I don't even close the script code anymore because I have to add a new name so often. Just edit the code, ctrl S and it works.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | November 1, 2010 2:44 PM | Report abuse

nisleib at 2:42

OK please tell Greg who said that so that person can be banned as well


Again, Demands and Suggestions that another poster be ignored should be deemed a personal attack and/or "an intent to harass" and result in an immediate banning.


Case closed.

Posted by: ConnecticutMadness | November 1, 2010 2:45 PM | Report abuse

nisleib, save yourself the trouble. Install Greesmonkey and load the script. It takes about 20 seconds and poof...just have to play whack-a-troll and add a new name occasionally.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | November 1, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz is Murray's own pollster (check her FEC Disclosures). And this poll is a huge outlier. If you want to put out phony press releases for the DSCC, I'd suggest you get a job there. If you want to be taken seriously as a journalist, I'd suggest you do a little research or at least publish something that indicates these poll results were a result of polling in the cafeteria at DNC HQ

Posted by: billtoye | November 1, 2010 2:47 PM | Report abuse

Sounds like the real trolls are thread-bombing.


.

Posted by: ConnecticutMadness | November 1, 2010 2:50 PM | Report abuse

"You guys know how to change the names on the script, right?
----------------------------
I don't even close the script code anymore because I have to add a new name so often. Just edit the code, ctrl S and it works.

Posted by: 12BarBlues"

Yeah, this is great. Just zapped JD2 as well!

Posted by: DDAWD | November 1, 2010 2:51 PM | Report abuse

"I'd suggest you do a little research or at least publish something that indicates these poll results were a result of polling in the cafeteria at DNC HQ"

I'm guessing Murray would poll in the high 50's there at least right?

I call fubar on billtoye's claim!

:P

Posted by: mikefromArlington | November 1, 2010 2:51 PM | Report abuse

I'd suggest you do a little research or at least publish something that indicates these poll results were a result of polling in the cafeteria at DNC HQ

Posted by: billtoye | November 1, 2010 2:47 PM
==========================

I'd suggest you reread the post.

"But the DSCC's poll today does have the virtue of mirroring four other polls released last week showing Murray ahead, though mostly by closer margins."

There's even a link to those four other polls.
~

Posted by: ifthethunderdontgetya | November 1, 2010 2:53 PM | Report abuse

I'd zap JD2 as well but apart from the birther craziness, he's fun to swat at and let off a little steam at.

It's like swatting a one winged fly on a table.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | November 1, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

All, my take on Sarah Palin's big "fight" with Sarah Palin today:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/11/sarah_palin_loves_it_when_medi.html

Posted by: Greg Sargent | November 1, 2010 2:56 PM | Report abuse

"Install Greesmonkey and load the script. It takes about 20 seconds and poof...just have to play whack-a-troll and add a new name occasionally."

Ahhh to be a young computer geek. Gotta confess when people start talking about code, java script, html etc...my eyes begin to glaze over. Seriously I can download stuff and finally get it to work but it can be very aggravating. It took me three separate attempts to download the proper program (many claimed to be) to simply synch my outlook contacts and sked with my new Droid. In fact I would have never managed at all without googling for advice from other computer geeks. Finally I stumbled upon a guy who figured it, used his tips..and voila..3rd times a charm after about 4 hours of cursing and frustration. And so for me it's a tough call. Go through all the downloading of what..chrome...grease..greese...

And all of this because of an antisocial idiot....to paraphrase Bill O'Reilly take while all Muslims are not terrorists all terrorists are Muslims...I'd have to conclude from this blog that all R's and rightwingers are not sociopathic idiots...but all the sociopathic idiots on this blog are rightwingers.

In fact in deference to the conservative friends I have here like Kevin and tao and others even I won't tar them with the broad brush of being represented by Joke or STRF/CoC/Leafof LIfe/Autumn BS/Solar elipse etc.....heres a suggestion sicko..a singular name that will work for you..how about...."MajorAhole"?

Posted by: rukidding7 | November 1, 2010 2:57 PM | Report abuse

mike:

"From there, just follow my instructions above."

Thanks, but to be honest I'm not using it. I was just curious how many people were using it. Seeing the spam/threadbombing/whatever doesn't bother me. I find it all fairly easy to ignore.

Posted by: ScottC3 | November 1, 2010 3:01 PM | Report abuse

"I find it all fairly easy to ignore."

I just found myself skipping most discussions because of the spam tbh.

It's akin to sitting in a restaurant and some jackass is on his phone the entire time behind you relentlessly talking at the top of his lungs about his family's greatness and rather than enjoying yourself in conversation, the nights been hijacked by some jerk that doesn't understand basic etiquette.

Posted by: mikefromArlington | November 1, 2010 3:05 PM | Report abuse

Murray-Rossi will be close. However, if it is very close you can bet the King County leftists will steal the election again as they did in the governor's 2004 race when Chris Gregoire barely beat Rossi in the third recount. The Dems are so desperate for power, they will do anything in this big blue county to save their own. It does appear that the leftists are going to get out to vote however. Going to be very interesting in WA on Tuesday night.

Posted by: seattledeadhead | November 1, 2010 3:06 PM | Report abuse

rukidding7

at 2:57 that is a personal attack, and you should be banned

Posted by: ConnecticutMadness | November 1, 2010 3:21 PM | Report abuse

Drove I-5 up and down over the weekend and saw a meager two senatorial contest signs. Both for Rossi. They compelled me to change my allegiance.

Posted by: bernielatham | November 1, 2010 3:41 PM | Report abuse

The Wash State portion, that is.

Posted by: bernielatham | November 1, 2010 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Greg, you mean Sarah Palin's big "fight" with Politico?

Posted by: clawrence12 | November 1, 2010 4:00 PM | Report abuse

@ruk: "Ahhh to be a young computer geek."

You should try it. I got the names appearing over the comments instead of under them. Just like you kept asking for. It just involves a trip to two pages and hitting a few buttons in Firefox, or a trip to one page and hitting a few buttons in Chrome.

Firefox, go here:

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/748/

And hit the Add to Firefox button. Then go here:

And hit the "Install" button. If using Chrome, just go there and hit the install button.

Get it running and many trolls are blocked, and the commenters names appear over the message rather than under. Which you claimed you thought would be a great thing.

Posted by: Kevin_Willis | November 1, 2010 4:14 PM | Report abuse

@ScottC3: "Just curious...I assume that this is just the same few people downloading it every time you add a new name. It's not 76 unique downloads, is it?"

I'm actually not sure. I expect there's a lot of re-downloading of updates. However, there's probably new folks mixed in there. It works on any standard WaPo blog, not just Plumline. And though we may comment, there are probably just as many lurkers.

Will see. Should spike now I got the "not registered" Firefox bug fixed, if it's all repeats. ;)

Posted by: Kevin_Willis | November 1, 2010 4:18 PM | Report abuse

Kevin, I got Greasemonkey for Firefox. Your instructions then say

"And hit the Add to Firefox button. Then go here:

"And hit the "Install" button. If using Chrome, just go there and hit the install button."

Is there a line missing after the colon at the end of "Then go here:"?

Fiddler

PS Thank you from the bottom of my bleeding heart for your work!

Posted by: cheles | November 1, 2010 5:27 PM | Report abuse

nisleib et al: just ignore the one you referred to as Sybil. he started as 37 & 0, or as we called him 'the Corner", then NowPostThis, then SafeThe RainForest, SummerBreeeze, now Conn man or what ever. he was banned from the Fix, and we over there just started ignoring him, not engaging hm at all. Just keep ignoring him, sooner or later he'll get so outrageous that Greg will tire of all your conmplaints and ban him from here too. him and all his nom des keyboard. Just ignore!!!

Posted by: katem1 | November 1, 2010 9:18 PM | Report abuse

King county will fix things and make everything OK for Patty. They have to keep the tradition alive.

Posted by: richard36 | November 2, 2010 10:57 AM | Report abuse

King county will fix things and make everything OK for Patty. They have to keep the tradition alive.

Posted by: richard36 | November 2, 2010 11:51 AM | Report abuse

King county will fix things and make everything OK for Patty. They have to keep the tradition alive.

Posted by: richard36 | November 2, 2010 11:52 AM | Report abuse

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