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1:30 p.m. ET: Does John McCain have a problem with women voters? Yes, he's got a woman on his ticket, but that hasn't stopped his polling numbers with the fairer sex from trending in the wrong direction.
Two of the major tracking polls, which do surveys every day and then release averages of the last three days' results, report today that Barack Obama has increased his advantage among women voters this week. The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey has Obama boosting his lead in that demographic from 9 points yesterday to 12 points today (his overall lead went from 4 points to 5 points). And the Diageo/Hotline poll, which had the race down to one point on Wednesday, now puts Obama's overall lead at 7 points, fueled by his 9-point lead among women.
Why is this movement happening, and what does it mean going forward? The simple explanation is that women voters, even more than men, are concerned about the economy and are tipping toward Obama because they prefer him on that issue. It's also possible that they responded well to Obama's performance during the second debate, though it's still not completely clear whether the Democrat got a real bounce out of Nashville.
Going forward, does McCain's move to go all negative look smart or foolish? Might female voters be more put off by a hostile campaign than men would be? Alternatively, will attacks on Obama's basic character and judgment like the William Ayers ads worry women and drive them back to the safer, known quantity of McCain? Keep an eye on those tracking polls Monday.
8 a.m. ET: Here's John McCain's dilemma: On a day when the headlines are about plunging global stock markets, when GM faces potential collapse, when analysts wonder -- seriously -- whether this is "The End Of American Capitalism," how can the Republican's campaign possibly keep talking about William Ayers without seeming jarringly off-topic?
We have the answer this morning, sort of, in the form of a brand new ad being launched by the McCain campaign and the Republican National Committee. Titled "Ambition," the spot attempts to kill two birds with one stone by linking Obama's Ayers asociation with ... wait for it ... congressional Democrats' responsibility for the housing crisis. How? By saying that "blind ambition" and "bad judgment" are why Obama worked with Ayers despite his past, and why Democrats wouldn't regulate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. See, so the Ayers story really is related to the economic crisis. The ad will be "televised nationally," according to the campaign, but let's watch to see how many free vs. paid airings it gets.
(That's not to be confused with another ad the RNC is running that mentions Ayers. Titled "The Chicago Way" -- and who doesn't love a good Untouchables reference? -- the spot is airing in Indiana and Wisconsin, where viewers might respond to the association of Obama with the purported evils of the Windy City.)
Much of the horse-race coverage today is not good for McCain, focusing on the negative rhetoric of him and his surrogates and the surliness of his crowds rather than, say, his mortgage plan. And the McCain camp isn't even completely unified on how negative it should go, with McCain saying Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright should be off limits and some advisers wondering why.
Obama, meanwhile, is still coasting along, occasionally engaging on the subject of Ayers but mostly talking about the economy. Main Street and Wall Street may be hurting, but the Democrat's bank account is not -- he's dropping $2 million per network on a half hour of primetime on CBS, NBC and possibly other networks. Maybe the campaign can boost the American economy just with its spending.
By
Ben Pershing
|
October 10, 2008; 8:00 AM ET
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Posted by: Anonymous | October 10, 2008 8:48 AM
you people at the WashPost are the masters of such devious countervailing argumentation...arn't you? How else could you recognize the same in others? So too bad you yourselves, by fecklessly failing to observe serious failings in a candidate provoke alternate methods of raising counscientiousness in your own co called news paper.
Posted by: R.S.Newark | October 10, 2008 8:52 AM
"fecklessly failing to observe serious failings"
People shouldn't do that to the English language
Posted by: canderson | October 10, 2008 9:39 AM
Yes, that is correct. The barry organizations code phrase for avoiding talking about his alarming ties with Ayers,etc.. is "let's talk about the economy", "people want to talk about the economy". Take notice of this.Wake up! I'm sorry but American Principles is worth more than any $$$.
Posted by: BK | October 10, 2008 9:50 AM
If you want an Untouchables reference, Al Capone went to jail for income tax evasion which was why Treasury agents were after him. The Palins may not have a jail problem, but it looks like they will be paying more taxes for their travel and per diem reimbursements according to a lot of tax experts-- or their tax lawyer's malpractice carrier will.
Posted by: ejgallagher1 | October 10, 2008 9:51 AM
And as the Titanic begins to sink, the captain orders the crew to re-arrange the deck chairs.
Posted by: David Morrow | October 10, 2008 9:57 AM
Why are self-respecting Conservatives allowing the McCain Campaign to further debase the Republican Party's credibility by using transparent scare-tactics about Obama in the all-too-similar same way the Bush Administration did, with WMD and the flimsy Iraq-9/11 connection? The Intelligence Community reports all credible threats about real terrorists, like "Bin Laden Determined to Attack Inside The United States" and people remember how, that memo was dismissed by the Bush Administration. These smears are not helping Republicans. Americans now associate McCain/Palin constantly repeating "Obama/Terrorists" with Bush repeating "WMD/Iraq" and "Saddam/911", and what people take away from it, is the memory of feeling betrayed when no WMD was found. These McCain/Palin tactics are basically spitting in the face of the True Patriots in our Intelligence Community who are keeping us safe from the real terrorists 24 hours a day. Misleading Americans on matters of National Security to scare-up votes is just plain wrong and people will remember.
Posted by: scott phillips | October 10, 2008 10:27 AM
McCain coddles terrorists. If Ayres was such a menace why has not McCain gone after him? His 25 years in Congress did not give him the opportunity to do so? What does that say about McCain besides that he is a pathetic old man bereft of ideas and will do anything, say anything, and appoint anyone to try to get over his Daddy complex?
Posted by: mjwies11 | October 10, 2008 10:59 AM
The tone and rhetoric that McCain is allowing in his campaign is the red flag for "gangsta" behavior in America. More academically, the use of "The Lottery" for anyone who votes for Obama is the reversal of learning for children in America. The killer gangsta behavior at the rallies is one of the criteria that gangsters use to initiate new members. Are we initiating a new gangster in the American political mainstream? The world is laughing at this personality of John McCain who is wants to be leader of a Free(?) nation.
Posted by: realitygirl 2 | October 10, 2008 11:01 AM
It seems to me the way to link Ayres to the current economic situation would be to suggest that since he was a Weatherman he must be a Communist and since Capitalism is in the process of failing that we should be careful that Obama doesn't make Ayres the head of our version of the Stazi in his new worker's republic. Of course this is a bunch of baloney, but that hasn't hurt McCain so far unless being behind in the polls by double digits is being hurt.
Posted by: Thomas Fiore | October 10, 2008 11:26 AM
WHY GIVE THIS STORY ANY INK?? Or at least include that the connection has been discredited by every credible news agency that has investigated. Spineless. Hey, good news is that you're getting comments so people are reading!!! Good for you.
Posted by: John | October 10, 2008 12:08 PM
Creative writing. Not only in the article but by the bloggers. Fecklessly failing... I don't think I'll ever forget that one.
Mr. McCain, and Mr. Obama, you have lost the idea behind what it means to lead. I don't doubt that at one time each of you had an idea. Today, you only use vague rhetoric. Rhetoric to cloud the people's minds. Sadly, one of you two will be elected and the people will have to deal with four more years of ineffective Washington government.
On the bright side, we won't see one of you as much on television and in the headlines after the election.
Posted by: Ben Franklin | October 10, 2008 12:24 PM
Readers should look at William C. Ibershof's Letter to the Editor in today's New York Times, which begins:
"As the lead federal prosecutor of the Weathermen in the 1970s (I was then chief of the criminal division in the Eastern District of Michigan and took over the Weathermen prosecution in 1972), I am amazed and outraged that Senator Barack Obama is being linked to William Ayers’s terrorist activities 40 years ago when Mr. Obama was, as he has noted, just a child.
Although I dearly wanted to obtain convictions against all the Weathermen, including Bill Ayers, I am very pleased to learn that he has become a responsible citizen.
Because Senator Obama recently served on a board of a charitable organization with Mr. Ayers cannot possibly link the senator to acts perpetrated by Mr. Ayers so many years ago."
Posted by: tom | October 10, 2008 12:29 PM
All of those who read this crap should get a life!!!
Posted by: zzzz | October 10, 2008 1:26 PM
I will no longer write long arguments trying to rationalize the repugs thought processes. I'm tired..I've had enough of the horses---it, so I will scream this one more time.
OBAMA/BIDEN 2008
Posted by: PUREDEMO | October 10, 2008 1:34 PM
Did you ever see "Madmen" on AMC channel. That is John McCain on women, life in general. A drink in one hand a woman in the other gambling that you can sell the public anything.
Posted by: tom cassidy | October 10, 2008 3:32 PM
Women realize that John McCain is out of touch. In his mind, he sees himself as a young reckless, get away with whatever he likes hot shot. Many many others see McCain as an old, desparate man trying for his "last hooray". Women don't like a man who is in the "last hooray" mode - these men are like lecherous pathetic beings.
Posted by: Anonymous | October 10, 2008 3:44 PM
Crazy is as Crazy does!
Posted by: Bill in West Virginia | October 10, 2008 3:54 PM
Check out this video:
http://liesliesmorelies.blogspot.com/2008/10/mccain-racist-rally-goers-pt-2.html
It's no wonder they are losing women when people say things like this.
Posted by: lies | October 10, 2008 3:57 PM
When it comes to politics, it appears gender is not as important as ideology. Palin represents women who are willing to accept an inferior position: yes, she can be VP, but she can't be a pastor. She subscribes to the notion that in religious matters women are to be subordinate to men. The fact Palin is comfortable with this indicates that she is out of step with women of mainstream America. Even many Catholic women are chaffing at the restriction preventing women from celebrating Mass. She is so 19th Century. She represents a dwindling group of women that gets smaller every year as the exodus from small town and rural America continues. Even now we are hearing that she may only be a figurehead for the "Shadow Governor," Todd.
Posted by: ChuckB | October 10, 2008 4:00 PM
JOHN BOY?? you are a classic in the making!!!
let's see.. with your sleaze ball campaigning... you have now lost the women voters... ummm... if i'm not mistaken.. that is kind of like 1/2 of the TOTAL voters... unless of course, you know of a third gender on this planet.. but if you don't.. you are on your way to losing ALL of the voters...
but dont' worry john boy.. george bush and his dog barney will still vote for you.. i read that in the enquirer!
george bush says, "you're doing a heckuva job johnnie!
barney says, "woof! woof! woof!"
but then cindy says, "g*d d*mn you john! if you f* up my chances at being the first lady, i'll hang you up by your little pea n*ts!!!!!"
no worries, right johnny boy?
Posted by: FozzieBear | October 10, 2008 4:00 PM
Take a look at what's happened to McCain with Latino voters and young voters. He's going south with both of those groups, and he was counting on his immigration stance peeling off a large chunk of the Latino vote.
And now McCain's negativism is going to do nothing more than solidify his support with a small core of social conservatives while at the same time driving more women, centrists, independents, and young voters towards Obama.
I guess Obama is right...McCain doesn't get it. Many Americans are sick of politicians taking cheap shots, getting personal, and failing to speak to the issues. Had McCain come up with a credible message on the economy he might have stood a fighting chance, but he panicked, possibly because he had no message on the economy, and realizing he couldn't shift the debate over to foreign relations or domestic security, he went negative.
But all to no avail. His downward spiral will accelerate.
Posted by: BwanaDik | October 10, 2008 4:24 PM
"Alternatively, will attacks on Obama's basic character and judgment like the William Ayers ads worry women and drive them back to the safer, known quantity of McCain? Keep an eye on those tracking polls Monday."
*******************************************The reason women are supporting Obama is because they are not small minded and devisive like those supporting McCain/Palin. We also have no respect for the 100% McCain negative ads and Palin's race insighting speeches. They do not belong anywhere in our Government, and if they win, the majority of the people in the US and World will have no respect for them, so how will they get anything accomplished? If they do not win, I say to Arizona and Alaska voters, get them out of our Government! They do not belong there.
Posted by: Linda from St. Paul | October 10, 2008 4:27 PM
I think one of the first people to be put in Obama's cabinet after he is elected should be William Ayers,as Sec.of Education.
Talk about payback!
Posted by: jime | October 10, 2008 4:28 PM
I guess McCain could always hope for digital remastering -- like rock stars do to their music..
Posted by: PeeBee | October 10, 2008 4:46 PM
Your beliefs about women voters is filled with wishful thinking.....vote for the great underhanded imposter Obama? HA!
As I am reminded often, and rightly, when women get angry, they get very CLEAR.....and will NOT put up with thugs, even from Chicago.
Mr. Pershing, women are 55 % of the U.S population....if our notable male "leaders" of the past had been honorable and JUST citizens, we would now have 55% of Supreme Court members who are women!!!!!
So stop the put downs; WOMEN will vote quite secretly in the voting booths....and they may shock you and your male dominated polster organizations and media!!!!
GO WOMEN, GO!!!! Do what is best for your children and the Country.
Posted by: Paul | October 10, 2008 4:47 PM
Am I missing something, I didn't realize that it was incumbent upon me to vet every person I have dealings and determine what they were doing 35+ years ago.
McLame has certainly had more unsavory associations... but that's only because he's so damn old!
Posted by: Roofelstoon | October 10, 2008 4:47 PM
Why should women be more likely to listen to half-truths and totally lies then men, whether they are delivered by John McCain or Sarah Palin. John McCain promised to run a campaign that was something different, he promises to bring something new to Washington. Well, my mother use to say, "What you do shouts so loud I can't here what you say" -- and McCain-Palin are the partisan politics of destruction as usual. There is nothing new here; no new words; no new vision -- just the same old rip America apart, divide and conquer.
Posted by: kbzach | October 10, 2008 4:55 PM
How can Mr. Pershing conceive of McCain's ads on William Ayers driving women back to the "safety of McCain" when he just reported they're already bolting following those very ads?
Why does he imagine Ayers, recently named Citizen of the Year by Chicagoans in honor of his public service, makes Obama "unsafe"? Never mind they're not pals: Ayers is a now a peaceful Univ. of Chicago professor. McCain, in contrast, is a dangerous warmonger.
Posted by: jhbyer | October 10, 2008 5:15 PM
McCain has a problem with women voters because he is bereft of ideas, he is running a disgusting campaign, and he thus has a problem with voters of all kinds.
Posted by: Anonymous | October 10, 2008 5:16 PM
Senator McCain is completely out of touch - a true sign of being disconnected with both government and the rational citizens of the United States. Going negative shows that he has no plan, and, that he is desperate to win at all costs. Even if he contradicts "flip flops" on his own promise to offer meaningful, issues based discussion and how to make this a better country for all. His behavior is deplorable, and, the voters should give him what he deserves - a rousing send off to Arizona in defeat.
Posted by: miketime42 | October 10, 2008 5:45 PM
Most of the educated women I know dislike Sarah Palin viscerally. It took only 110,000 votes to elect her to her current position; somehow she thinks this qualifies her to be the vice-president of the United States? Sarah Palin's attack-dog style, unabashed, arrogant meanness (particularly with regard to someone as erudite and polite as Senator Obama) and all around brash ignorance, is a big turn-off. She's attacking Obama for not wearing a flag lapel pin, having a weird middle name, and being acquainted a Distinguished Professor of the College of Education at University of Illinois - such big campaign issues. Further, I have yet to see anything fundamentally Christian in her conduct on this campaign. I would complain about her command of English if she were my kid's fifth-grade English teacher, and quite frankly, I would not hire her for a 30K job to file my email. If Sarah Palin with this resume looked like Madeleine Albright instead of Miss Alaska, I doubt McCain would have picked her. His judgement in this choice and his reticence to reign in her insipid hate speech tells us a lot about John McCain's character, and what he thinks about women.
Posted by: Julie McNamara | October 10, 2008 5:47 PM
John McCain is a wifebeater.
Prove it's not true.
He knows wifebeaters, since he hasn't shot them all in the head we can only assume that he supports what they're doing. Even repentant wifebeaters, how is it that McCain hasn't destroyed these people!
Boy, you republicans are desperate. This isn't going to work on anybody outside of your circle jerk, and you don't have enough numbers to vote McCain into office.
Just what do you think you're doing? Do you have any clue at all how much your vehement hatred marks you as someone nobody wants to be near, nobody wants to be on the same side as you?
You must be accepting defeat, it's all I can see to describe this. You realize no matter how much you try to convince the independents that your guy is better than the oppononent, you have failed in doing so.
So now you're all just choking on it. Christ you people are sick
Posted by: wb | October 10, 2008 5:50 PM
As his ship goes down, the angry old guy is asking: "Who is the real Obama?"
One vote for McCain is one vote too many.
Posted by: ralph | October 10, 2008 5:54 PM
I have three adult, well educated, successful daughters who are self made independent thinkers and have successful careers. They won't vote for McCain and have comments about Palin that I won't repeat here.
There are so many well qualified women who could serve well as VP or President. McCain's pick of Palin apparently is an insult to many women.
Posted by: dbax | October 10, 2008 6:15 PM
Sigh. When will the Republican Party return to sanity?
Posted by: PDS3019 | October 10, 2008 6:39 PM
Most women aren't stupid. What do you think would happen? John and Palin have really blown it. I concede. Better luck to our party next time.
Posted by: gop cowgirl | October 10, 2008 6:41 PM
American voting public have shown they are extremely naive and are unable to wade through all the misleading messages put forth by McCain and more so now Palin. They have clearly demonstrated that personal attacks can be a very effective weapon. Hey after all, you guys have given Bush two terms! How did that transpire? Simple answer - Americans are only skin deep or maybe just plain dumb. And you guys have paid the price for such dumbness. Look at the mess that Dubya has left behind with his incompetent leadership.
Two wars that are sucking your country dry. Global prestige in the toilet. Huge debts to the Chinese and Japanese. An unfolding recession/depression. A currency that is a joke or at least since Bush took power. You guys are well and truly screwed.
And yet you think that McCain/Palin could provide you with a way out. Sad. McCain has very proudly announced that economics is not one of his strengths. Palin has demonstrated that she is an empty airhead - but hey, Americans go for a pretty face over a brainy lass any day. And the worst thing that McCain has done so far is that he will do anything to win this election, even if can't possibly be good for the country. He picked Palin.
Enough said. You guys deserve the president you elect. You had Bush. Now I strongly expect you will vote McCain to the white house. After all, isn't the name appropriate? You can't possibly have a "Black House" can you?
Posted by: Georgie M | October 10, 2008 6:57 PM
His polling numbers with women are not "trending in the wrong direction".
Women are recognizing that McCain has tried to use them to gain power. Thank God they are too intelligent to fall for it. They know an aggressive bimbo when they see one, and they are not impressed. So the "trending" is going exactly the direction it should be going.
( And I am glad he didn't choose an intelligent and qualified woman, because the women would probably be supporting him if he had)
Posted by: Arjuna9 | October 10, 2008 8:17 PM
Is it any wonder that he's having trouble with women? John McCain made a big mistake when he picked Sarah Palin to be his running mate. His nomination of a woman who is, by any reasonable measure, woefully unqualified is a slap in the face to the millions of American women who have at some at some point in their lives been denied opportunities for which they were qualified. Nominating Palin reminds me a lot of that old NOW ad, "Hire her she's got great legs".
Furthermore, by nominating Sarah Palin - a woman who is condescending towards those of us who believe in the value of education and excellence, a woman who is against many of the hard won gains we've over the past 30 or so years, a woman who is into killing animals for sport, etc. - he picked a woman who is definitely out of the mainstream.
This is all being played out against a backdrop of stories about how he ditched his first wife and his long history of womanizing. Not the kind of a guy you'd want your sister or daughter to bring home.
Posted by: laSerenissima | October 10, 2008 8:31 PM
I give McCain's new strategy of fear mongering and attacking Obama about a week. Once McCain's thugs see the numbers are either not moving, or else moving in the wrong direction for Little Mac, they'll change course again -- they might even talk about issues.
Posted by: orbiter dictum | October 10, 2008 8:42 PM
What woman in her right mind would support John McCain after the way he treated his first wife and children? And to think he tearfully answered when asked by a reporter that he would do things differently re: his first marriage. Uh huh and now he has selected young Palin to run with him when he could have had a stronger ticket with say maybe Romney or Giulliani? Atiger does not change its stripes
Posted by: Eileen | October 10, 2008 9:02 PM
I am a real soccer Mom, am glad the truth has finally come out about this total sham of a candidate: Sarah Palin. I do not know a single friend or biz contact who supports the GOP ticket. These are people who range in age from 30 to 70, mostly women, either stay-at-home Moms or working btw. She does nothing for us, her "popularity" is a myth cooked up by Rove and his GOP PR Team. We ain't buying the spin, thanks anyway but,
no moose stew for me.
Posted by: Annie Laurie | October 10, 2008 9:38 PM
My middle name is Trouble. I wasn't born in trouble. I got a girl and she's shakin'and I got no control here. I hope she does and I'm sure she will. Good luck Post!
Posted by: Anonymous | October 11, 2008 9:13 AM
If you think you have political troubles, you better think more about business. This whole thing might need to be left to the readers to update. The combat is going to be a little more intense next week. People will forget all about the election. I already have. You might just need bread lines at the polls. You'll get to vote. Woopie.
Posted by: Anonymous | October 11, 2008 12:52 PM
Guys, let me tell you!
I have been a registered Republican since 1967 and have voted GOP at the presidential level consistently UNTIL 2004, when I became so disenchanted with Bush I voted Democratic. The discomfort has persisted and I am so put off by Bush/McCain that I voted Democratic this year.
I am seriously upset because Bill Clinton, a Democrat, balanced the budget where we the Republicans couldn't; and Bush lied on WMD in Iraq and mismanaged the military situation in Iraq since we invaded.
Further, I am really upset that the respect in which the USA is held throughout the world since Bush became our President has gone way South. Basically, I see Bush as an incompetent CEO who has destroyed our image worldwide-- a situation that will require nearly a generation to rebuild.
Only compounded by the mess in our national economy!
Oh, sorry, it does get better: PAILIN!
God help us!
Phillip in Bangkok
Posted by: Phillip in Bangkok | October 13, 2008 6:46 AM
I was working with some acorns and the scandal investigation were like fall leaves. Then it was a cold long winter. Between the voter fraud and FDR, my plate was full. I'm headed for Europe. It's good times. It's bad times. Pay attention to the details.
Posted by: Night Mayor | October 14, 2008 2:31 AM
The comments to this entry are closed.


Stick to your guns. I'm packing up my magic bullets and moving ahead with my plan. Some things just can't be sold.