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8 a.m. ET: Is health-care reform inevitable?
That question has come to the fore in recent days, as President Obama and Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill attempt to navigate a maze full of opposition and entrenched interests to arrive at a reform package. Politics is all about leverage, and for now, the pro-reform forces have it. That's why so many potential opponents of the White House's efforts -- drug companies, hospitals, moderate Republicans -- have been willing to sit down and negotiate on the issue. If health-care reform is inevitable, they'd rather make some sacrifices and have a seat at the table then be caught outside the room when the deal is made.
But what if reform isn't inevitable? What if all those interest groups look at Obama's declining poll numbers and the complicated politics of the Senate and decide there is a better than even chance that nothing will pass this year? Then their incentives change, from trying to shift the bill incrementally in their favor to just opposing it outright. Now, no one is reading the reform movement its last rites yet, but each time a new hurdle rises, its advocates get a little more worried.
Jonathan Cohn writes that "the situation is not dire," but he had hoped and expected reform to be further along by the second week of July than it is. And Cohn is concerned that the House health care bill won't be unveiled today, as originally planned. Ezra Klein frets that the cause has a "public support problem," that "health-care reform isn't simply suffering because the public is overly opposed to some of its revenue raisers. It's suffering because the public is insufficiently supportive of its core." More positively, Michael Kinsley writes "Obama has what one of his recent predecessors used to call 'the big mo.' His popularity still soars. And he seems fearless about overcrowding his agenda." And yet Kinsley advocates that Obama "go for some smaller successes" because passing a sweeping reform package just looks too expensive.
Problems continued to crop up Thursday. In the House, conservative Blue Dog Democrats warned their leadership Thursday that they couldn't support the party's version of health care legislation in that chamber unless changes are made. At the same time, the House's three chairmen on point -- Henry Waxman, Charlie Rangel and George Miller -- all said that they wouldn't necessarily honor the agreements the White House and Max Baucus have been hammering out with hospitals, drug companies and doctors. The House measure is expected to include an income tax increase on the wealthy, which the Senate would most likely oppose. Baucus did include such a tax on a list of more than a dozen possible ways to pay for health care that he presented to Finance Committee members yesterday, but the fact that the list of proposals is so long illustrates how far away the panel is from actually reaching consensus.
Of course, just because consensus is far off doesn't mean it's unreachable. Until now, Obama has been content to step back and let congressional leaders drive the process. At some point soon he could decide to jump directly into negotiations and throw his still-considerable political weight behind a specific plan. And none of the stakeholders inside or outside of Congress has walked away from the table, indicating that no one is willing to place a firm bet against reform quite yet. As Time frames it: "The bottom line will come down to one crucial question: Is it riskier to push for health reform — or to be seen as having stopped it?" For now, anyway, it's still the latter.
By
Ben Pershing
|
July 10, 2009; 8:00 AM ET
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Posted by: relmasian | July 10, 2009 10:23 AM
What nonsense - only a writer with no math skills could write this column. The insurance company system we have now grows the health sector faster that the economy grows - so at some point the health sector is bigger than the economy if we have no "reform". Long before that, there are massive job losses because our goods and services are priced out of the international market as single payer countries produce both at a much cheaper price. So "reform" is "inevitable" unless we are guided by our media to actions that destroy our nation in order to give the health insurance industry a few more years of "greed is good". Reform without a strong public plan option is not reform as it leaves on that path to destruction - so we will soon see who are the patriots defending us and our economy and jobs - and who are politicians trying for a momentary gain and continued contributions to campaign funds - and we will see which media are simply salespersons for corporate greed.
Posted by: papau | July 10, 2009 12:11 PM
ATTN -- AG Holder, DHS Sec. Napolitano, Rahm Emanuel, David Axelrod, Jay Carney:
APPARENT MALICIOUS INTERFERENCE, OVERT CENSORSHIP
OF INTERNET TELECOMMUNICATIONS INTENSIFIES
IN WAKE OF ‘PANETTA’S BOX’ REVELATIONS
OF SECRET CIA INTEL PROGRAM
• Desperate attempt to cover up a much broader covert ‘multi-agency coordinated action program” of nationwide extra-legal targeting and punishment — using a GPS-enabled citizen volunteer vigilante army recruited from federally-funded volunteer and public safety agencies and “directed energy weapons” torture?
http://NowPublic.com/scrivener RE: “GESTAPO USA”
For more on apparent government surveillance “fusion center” censorship and prior restraint of citizen telecommunications, see “comments” section of this ACLU blog thread:
http://blog.aclu.org/2009/01/26/internet-filters-voluntary-ok-not-government-mandate
Posted by: scrivener50 | July 10, 2009 12:44 PM
Although our medical costs are twice as high as the next country, and our health care quality comes in at 42nd, somehow insurance companies have plenty of money to spend lobbying against the single payer system preferred by the popular majority of Americans. It's morally abhorrent that our own premium payments are diverted from their intended purpose of providing affordable quality health care, and instead used to prevent it.
Posted by: rooster54 | July 10, 2009 6:43 PM
Keep Obama out of the country. This health solution is so simple..just fix what's broken and leave the rest alone. Too many cooks in the kitchen are bound to screw up the end results. So much to distract us. With 18 million to renovate the recovery.gov website, 2 million more in unemployment, AIG spending millions on golden parachutes, stock market down...Gee, how can Washington sleep at nite. We're all awake and suffering..too bad for Dr. Obama the polls only reflect our thoughts. We're mad as hell.....
Posted by: MOMLEE | July 10, 2009 11:51 PM
I am Dutch, so I observe your country from a distance: the intrinsic value of American medicine is top of the bill, as could be expected from the American drive (yes we can, and yes we wlll, yes we did already). An outsider like me looks at some typical American issues like legislation on guns and your capitalistic health care system with amazement. The incredible power of capitalistic firms with its dangerous influence on all levels reminds me in many ways of the mafia in Italy. Let me adress all of you: come to your common sense. Reform!
Posted by: rolandkengen | July 13, 2009 3:30 AM
The comments to this entry are closed.


Obama led health care reform is not inevitable. As usual the political winds will determine how far that boat sails.
However, health care reform itself is inevitable. Japan, the world's second largest economy spends half of what the U.S. does on health care, yet has the longest life expectancy of any large country. Sweeden pays doctors about a quarter of what U.S. doctors make, yet has the world's lowest infant mortality rate, lower than any individual state in the 50 states of the U.S. Other comparisons are not so dramatic, but despite spending about a sixth of its GNP on health, the U.S. health industry produces a poorer result than the large majority of first world countries. There is money to be made in closing the gap, and if Obama does not get it done, someone else will.