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The Biggest Losers

Putting its punditry cart way ahead of the campaign horse, many political soothsayers have begun discussing the possibility of a Barack Obama landslide in the Electoral College. How dramatic a win would that be? It depends on the definition of landslide.

With 270 electoral votes needed to win, the Democratic nominee currently leads in potential Electoral College votes by 338 to 200 for Republican John McCain, according to the Real Clear Politics average that allocates all “tossup” states --that is, states where the latest polling makes the outcome too close to call -- to whichever candidate is slightly ahead. How would 338 stack up in the landslide department?

It would certainly be a larger tally than George W. Bush ever amassed (271 EVs in 2000 and 286 in 2004). It would also outdo Jimmy Carter (297 in 1976).

But it wouldn’t come close to contemporary landslide king Ronald Reagan (489 EVs in 1980 and 525 in 1984). The first President Bush won the White House in 1988 with 426 electoral votes. Bill Clinton, the last Democrat to win the White House, garnered 370 electoral votes in 1992 and 379 when he was re-elected in 1996.

This may provide little solace for McCain, but on the eve of the election it appears that he won’t suffer the fate of two of recent history’s biggest losers. In 1980, Carter -- the incumbent president -- received only 49 electoral votes. But even that was better than Walter Mondale’s woeful 1984 tally: He got just 13.

By Marie Cocco  | November 3, 2008; 3:50 PM ET
Categories:  Cocco  | Tags:  Marie Cocco  
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Comments

I feel that the polls, as are the media pundits are biased, in how they phrase their questions and ratio of Democrats versus Republications. Let me see if I, as one of the “Bitter Americans clinging to my Bible and Guns” can provide you with a few examples for note voting for Obama’s socialism. 1. He wants to establish a “Euro Socialist” form of government for us. 2. Pushing for universal health care such as France and Canada. 3. Wants to provide “Open Voting” for the unions. 4. Wants to re-establish a “Welfare State” by taking from the Rich and give to the 40% non-tax paying folks. 5. At an address before Planned Parenthood on July 17, 2007, Obama said: "The first thing I will do as President is signing the Freedom of Choice Act." 6. Bankrupt our coal industry. 7. Reduce our military and create a “Civilian” security force. Sounds like shades of the past to me? And finally he will raise taxes on small business’ and anyone making $42,000 + to support his welfare agenda. 7. Illegally investigating private citizens who oppose his agenda. He has falsely stated his agenda and how he plans for us, who pay taxes, to pay for his s socialist agenda. We are seeing a “Mind Set” of people voting for Obama to ignore his Tax, Supreme Court and National Security agendas supported by Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Chris Dodd and Barney Frank which will evolve into a Socialist America. . Could go on, but this gives you JUST a few examples.

Posted by: dnicolo1 | November 3, 2008 5:51 PM | Report abuse

One more day and thank God there will nolonger be any more McCain lies and dirisiveness.
One thing that John McCain can revel in is that he will go into the history books as the loser to the first Black President. John wanted fame and he will get it but not in the way he wanted.

Posted by: beachbum1938 | November 3, 2008 6:14 PM | Report abuse

America loses if Obama does not win by a landslide of global proportions. Most people know that Obama would win big if he were white. With his obvious oratorical skills, his educational background, his intellect, his practical politics, and his ability to bring people together, Barack should be a big winner against such an incompetently run opposition campaign.

Barack's tone, his humility, his grace under intense pressure, and his calmness are wonderful attributes for a President to have. His campaign has shown the skill of a master politician. Obama does not need to take second place to anyone. Talk about executive skills, Obama has put them on display each and every day of this campaign.

McCain's big refrain lately has talked about his facing the challenges that he claims that Barack has not faced. In reality, neither McCain nor Obama has faced the challenges that a President would face.

The real truth about America:

Government does redistribute wealth.
The pull between conservative and liberal politics is about how the vast wealth of America will be redistributed. What makes America the country that it is is because of the development of a vast middle class, a group that is under assault by the present politics. Obama is absolultely correct to focus on the middle class. Without an expanding middle class, America as we know it will cease to exist. It will revert to a country where there are a relativly small percentage of super wealthy and a vast poor class. You can easily look at what these countries look like by looking at the Middle East. Guess where the big global terrorist threat is based? This is no coincidence.

Bush has presided over the largest increase in national debt in our history and to what ends? We still do not have an updated infrastructure, national health care, first rate public educational system, and on and on. In fact, I see no results for such an expenditure of public funds. I just want to know where the last $6 trillion dollars of debt have gone? I have ideas. My conservative friends will not like my answer. Afterall it was the conservatives that bankrupted Orange County, California, several years ago.

Posted by: EarlC | November 3, 2008 7:01 PM | Report abuse

Polsters Schmolsters

I have conducted polls myself in business - the key to getting the information you want is based on the questions asked. However the way the questions asked must be such that they do not lead those questioned to answer a certain way. In other words, one is trying to get truthful answers.

Without seeing the questions asked, who ran the polls, how the questions were asked or the answers coaxed from those questioned, the results can be misleading.

Posted by: jimbob5 | November 3, 2008 9:17 PM | Report abuse

To put it in perspective, if the seven percent poll margin holds up, Obama will gain a bigger vote share than any Dem since Roosevelt.

We're reliving 1976, with the Bush Administration replacing Watergate as the object of the public's scorn, John McCain in the role of the largely innocent victim that Gerald Ford played in 1976, and Sarah Plain as the someone nutty loose cannon VP pick (remember Dole's "Democratic wars"?). 1976 was close, but Ford didn't go into the gutter like McCain did. This one won't be so close, and it will usher in an entire generation of Dem pols. Somehow, I fail to see a Ronald Reagan for our times on the horizon -- Mitt Romney is not it.

Posted by: gbooksdc | November 3, 2008 10:30 PM | Report abuse

THE SECURITY OF AMERICA IS THREATENED BY AN OBAMA DICTATORSHIP. HE WILL CUT THE LEGS FROM OUR DEFENSES-OUR ENEMIES ARE BANKING ON OBAMA WINNING. HE WILL BE AMERICA'S NEVILLE CHAMBERLAIN AN APPEASER AND A DICTATOR. THINK!
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF:Germany 1933. There were the radio addresses (no television Joe Biden) and mass rallies of crazed mesmerized fanatics who wanted a better life in dreary bad times and believed the lies and promises of a charismatic orator whose speeches crafted by Joe Goebbels were designed to convince the throngs that he would bring them everything they needed. The orator used scapegoating techniques that had worked for centuries. He became Dictator. This could not happen here they say. We have checks and balances they say. We have journalists and a media with integrity they say. They are wrong.Obama the collector sounds right to me. He collects, consorts with, purchases property with, blurbs with, works with, worships with, mentors with, baptizes with, and basically swims with people that REALLY hate America, whites, Jews, Israelis, anti corruption laws, and the capitalist system of America. He comes to us dressed beautifully and tells us that he is one of us. Please don’t tell us Barak Obama is not really one of them. That is like saying that a guy who rides with the Hell’s Angels for twenty years doesn’t believe what they believe because he doesn’t wear their jacket.Birds of a feather flock together. You can tell a man’s character by the character of the company he keeps. By their fruits ye shall know them. Never mind that Obama’s voting record is so far left that it is out of sight. Never mind that his statements and freudian slips show him to be something else. Never mind that the American people are going through a version of what the Germans felt in 1933, bad financial times, an unpopular president and an orator backed by the media using the big lies and promises of spreading the wealth and are mesmerized by the prospect that every man is going to be a King…by spreading the wealth.When The Obama is enthroned, and it looks like he will be, then with a compliant Congress and Supreme Court he will prove to all that THE POWER TO TAX INCLUDES THE POWER TO DESTROY AND POWER CORRUPTS AND ABSOLUTE POWER CORRUPTS ABSOLUTELY.When a stealth with a thin resume, a gift of lying with a straight face, never a businessman, never a mayor or a governor

Posted by: mharwick | November 3, 2008 10:47 PM | Report abuse

Two quick comments.

1. The extent of a landslide should be assessed by popular vote, not electoral. The real champ, LBJ, won 61.1% in 1964. Reagan in 1984 was almost equally impressive: 59.1%. Now those were serious landslides.

2. Those also were the outcomes for popular incumbents against extremely weak challengers. To compare Obama against them is not very useful. More interesting comparisons will be against Bush in 1988 (still benefiting from Reagan's popularity, of course, but running on his own) and Clinton in 1992, when the Ross Perot factor had big impact.

If Obama gets 55% or more of the total vote that would be a landslide by any reasonable historical standard. More than 53 but less than 55 would be excellent, but not a landslide. Let's see what happens!

Posted by: lostintranslation | November 3, 2008 10:59 PM | Report abuse

I think a good sign that Obama is the right choice is to look at who the rest of the world would vote for, including America's closest allies. We have no reason to want a weaker America - we want a strong and influential US for our own security and economic prosperity. The fact is, 90% of the rest of the world would easily vote for Obama over McCain and Palin. You simply can't afford to put erratic and far-right people in control there. John McCain doesn't even know the difference between Sunni and Shia and Palin thinks she can see Russia from her house. She didn't even have a passport till very recently! So, please, for the love of all that is good in the world, don't subject the rest of us to 4 more years of insanity. Vote Obama/Biden

Posted by: Caveman1 | November 4, 2008 2:36 AM | Report abuse

A nice, pointless column for trivia buffs. It doesn't matter to me whether or not Obama gets 300 or 500 electoral votes.

Posted by: rmpatera | November 4, 2008 6:27 AM | Report abuse

mharwick: you're obviously an idiot

Posted by: ChrisMacy | November 4, 2008 8:14 AM | Report abuse

The comments were more interesting than the article. I'm amazed I'm actually walking around past people with such vitriol running around in their heads. McCain wants a top tax bracket of 35% and Obama 38% and these numbnuts say one is a socialist. Please! Given the spectrum of views from the government should be a southern baptist church to Nader, McCain and Obama are about an inch apart right in the middle.

Posted by: BayshoreBandit | November 4, 2008 9:10 AM | Report abuse

THE BIGGEST POOSER ARE THE AMERICAN'S WHO VOTE WILL NOT BE THE DECIDING FACTOR.IT WILL COME DOWN TO MILLIONS WHO ARE VOTING FOR OBAMA BECAUSE OF RACE WILL NEVER VOTE AGAIN AND ANY ONE WHO CALLS HIMSELF AFRICAN AMERICAN,ASIAN AMERICAN SHOULD BE UPSET BY SUCH AN UN-AMERICAN ATTITUDE.WE ARE AMERICAN-AFRICAN AMERICAN-ASIAN.IF NOT YOUR NOT A PATRIOT.IF YOU VOTE JUST FOR ONE REASON AND NEVER VOTE AGAIN YOU ARE NOT AN AMERICAN OR A PATRIOT.IF YOU ARE SO PROUD AF YOUR ANCESTERS CONTINENT THEN GO LIVE THEIR.YOU DONATE OVER 750,000,000 DOLLARS TO WIN .MONEY WOUL BETTER BE SERVED HELPING AFRICANS THAT ARE BEING MURDERED BY AFRICANS

Posted by: clarkeckenrode | November 4, 2008 10:42 AM | Report abuse

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