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And a final British poll for the night...

This one is not all that different from the YouGov poll I spoke of earlier -- the numbers for each party differ by only a couple of points -- and yet the overall impression it creates is quite different. The ComRes poll for ITV and the Independent puts the Conservatives at 37 at, Labour at 29 and the Lib Democrats at 26. The consistency with the earlier poll: Labour does seem to be ahead of the Liberal Democrats. But if the Conservative lead over Labour ends up at eight points instead of at five, as reported by the YouGov poll, many more seats could shift from Labour to Tory. (Thanks again to the UK Polling Report for getting these numbers up fast.)

In some contests, the polls tell you quite clearly what’s going to happen. In this one, we may just have to wait until the voters vote and the ballots get counted. That’s how it is in three-way races – and also when the political boundaries are drawn in peculiar ways.

By E.J. Dionne  | May 4, 2010; 7:35 PM ET
Categories:  Dionne  | Tags:  E.J. Dionne  
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