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Democrats' bumpy ride to November

We all know the conventional wisdom and historical trend. The party of a first-term president almost always loses seats in Congress during the mid-term elections. So, there’s no reason to believe that this November’s ballot will be any different. It’s just a matter of how badly the beating is. And when viewed through that lens, the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll is another kick to the gut of Democrats and the Obama administration.

When asked how much confidence they had in President Obama to make the right decisions for the country’s future, an uncomfortable 58 percent responded “just some” or “none.” There was even less confidence in congressional Democrats (68 percent). This is why you have White House press secretary Robert Gibbs sounding the alarm that his party could lose the House. As Greg Sargent and others have pointed out, this is about firing up Democrats in November.

But these alarming polls, which have been consistently alarming for the Democrats and the White House all this year, haven’t translated into good news for Republicans. While their efforts to portray the president and his party as reckless and wrong on every issue certainly have contributed to Democrats’ and Obama’s poll plummet, Americans have even less confidence in congressional Republicans. An overwhelming percentage of respondents (72 percent) to the confidence question said “just some” or “none” when it comes to the GOP.

Well, that’s a bit of cold comfort for Democrats. And so is this from today’s story on the poll:

Obama's overall standing puts him at about the same place President Bill Clinton was in the summer of 1994, a few months before Republicans captured the House and Senate in an electoral landslide.

President Ronald Reagan, who also contended with a serious recession at the outset of his first term, was a little lower at this point in 1982, with a 46 percent to 45 percent split on his approval ratings. Republicans went on to lose about two dozen seats in the House that fall.

Yes, that history lesson is better for Obama than Congress. Thus the conventional wisdom that firing up Democrats this November is all about keeping the White House two Novembers from now.

By Jonathan Capehart  | July 13, 2010; 8:52 AM ET
Categories:  Capehart  | Tags:  Jonathan Capehart  
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Comments

It was recognized that forcing healthcare (insurance) reform would cost Democrat seats. Compound this with a lawsuit to prevent enforcement of immigration laws. Throw in the installation of the head of Medicare and Medicaid without a single hearing (rip Sen Byrd). Add out-of-control spending and refusal to pass a budget for next year.
It is reasonable to expect a massive ousting of the current legislators.

Posted by: kitchendragon50 | July 13, 2010 9:40 AM | Report abuse

Americans simply do not believe the lies the Obama Administration shovels out nor the costs of his programs and policies. Pelosi has been complicit in the dishonesty jammed down Americans throat.

When the Obama Administration said it could provide health coverage to 30-40 million additional people without increasing the national debt, he was lying.

When the two thousand plus page bill was rushed through Congress with additional millions in payoffs with no time to even read it, Americans knew they were being taken.

This is just one program - a big part - 16% of the Economy. An economy that is so far in debt that every US resident now has a debt of $47,000!

Obama/Pelosi/Reid are running out the clock and will conveniently 'forget' to head off the biggest tax increases in history, detonating on January 1, 2011. Can't wait for those currently paying 10% to find out their rate is going up by FIFTY PERCENT!

There is no hope in this Administrations programs and policies - only costly despair.

Posted by: 2012frank | July 13, 2010 9:43 AM | Report abuse

The Democrats just don't get it. Obama's drop in the polls has nothing to do with his race and only a little to do with the economy. The greatest factor is that Obama's values- the driving force of his agenda-are deeply at odds with those of the American People. This is also the reason that the GOP will take over Congress this Fall. The people still don't trust the GOP but correctly see the "party of no" as an effective counterbalance to the furtherance of Obama's far left agenda.

Posted by: jkk1943 | July 13, 2010 10:37 AM | Report abuse

Wow! This November is going to be a tough one for we independents. What to do, what to do? As a father it's tough to watch our young die in a country that has swallowed up young men and women for centuries to little avail. Doctors are refusing to take medicaid -- who is going to treat the massive number of new patients in a society that already spends twice what good old Canada spends on health care (per cap.)? Who is going to pay for it when drug company CEO's get millions of dollars?

What to do? What to do? I really like our congressman, Jay Inslee, however if the republicans get a brain and run a moderate with the gonads to stand up to her/his party hacks it will be tempting (just a figure of speech).

Posted by: Fergie303 | July 13, 2010 11:30 AM | Report abuse

Joblessness, government spending, and government regulation. Are any of these better than when Bush was in office? There's your answer.

Posted by: slatt321 | July 13, 2010 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Barack Obama has made my voting this November very easy - for the 1st time ever I'm simply pulling the Republican lever. I suspect there are others (read, MANY) who have come to the same conclusion, too.

Posted by: fairlaw3 | July 13, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Unfortunately most of the "issues" on which Obama and the Dems ran in 2008 have proven to be utter hokum and Americans don't like to be fooled:
-- Patriot Act was unconstitutional assault on liberties? It's still there and more necessary than ever.
-- Guantanamo? More necessary than ever.
-- Iraq War was unwinnable and Petreaus was "Betray Us?" War is over won by Petreaus.
-- There is no "war on terror"? Fort Hood, Times Square Bomber, Detroit underwear bomber, Uganda.
-- Islam is a religion of peace? ditto.
-- Unclench your fists? hahahahaha
-- Bow to China, Bow to Japan, Bow to Saudi? hahahahahah
-- Send the bust of Winston Churchill back to UK? What was that all about? Oh insulting our friends.
-- Global Warming: Fraud...doesn't match the melting of the glaciers 10,000 years ago.
-- Competence? hahahah..Eric "I'll sue you or I'll try KSM in NY" Holder or Big :our Southern border is secure against terrorists" Sis, or Salazar "I'll ban drilling" only to find out its illegal, or NASA "our most important mission is outreach to Islam, or or
-- Changing the political climate in WDC? Unrelenting assaults on his predecessor and the Republican Party which had NO say in anything done in Congress.
-- Changing race relations? Yep...those cops in Boston were White racists. The Tea Party movement are white racists. The objection to Black Panthers with clubs at voting booths are white racists. Anybody who doesn't like what the Administration has done are white racists.
-- Supporting your friends while opposing your enemies? Ask Honduras, Colombia, Poland, Georgia, England, Iraq, Israel, etc. how they feel.

I guess the whole left hate-America agenda is getting exposed and will be voted on in November. I relish the prospect.

Posted by: wjc1va | July 13, 2010 4:43 PM | Report abuse

As a lifelong Democrat, seeing Barack Obama walk away from a Democratic bicameral majority and compromise our agenda when he didn't have to disgusts me. I want another Democratic candidate for the presidency in 2012, because it doesn't matter to me if Obama is reelected when having him in office doesn't mean a thing.

Posted by: stephendclark | July 13, 2010 6:44 PM | Report abuse

Obama, Pelosi and Reid forgot that they were supposed to represent US citizens in a balanced budget way.

Instead they have gone off on liberal socialist tangents that aren't beliefs of the majority of Americans and are costing money we don't have.

Their governing has been reprehensible and they will pay in November.

Posted by: mlemac | July 14, 2010 12:13 PM | Report abuse

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