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Posted at 2:26 PM ET, 11/16/2010

Smartphone sales to pass computers in 2012: Morgan Stanley analyst Meeker

By Cecilia Kang

Correction: Previous version had smartphones to exceed PC sales next year.

Morgan Stanley Internet analyst said she expects smartphone sales will surpass PC and laptop sales in 2012, with more than 450 million units sold.

By 2013, smart phone sales will approach 650 million unit sales, Mary Meeker said during a presentation Tuesday at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco. In her "State of the Internet" report, Meeker spoke about growth in the smartphone market and its link to social networking sites, as well as about Internet video and advertising.

Watch out for mobile growth in China, she said. Its population of smartphone users is relatively nascent, with 14.5 million 3G users, or two percent of the population. That compares with 37 million in the United States. But that population grew by 941 percent in the third quarter compared with one year ago.

For landline connections, Internet video is taking off, Meeker said. According to analytics firm Sandvine, Netflix captured 21 percent of traffic during peak hours in the third quarter. YouTube users take up 10 percent of traffic.

She said Internet advertising is “ripe for innovation.” On Facebook, 27 million users said they like Zynga’s Texas Hold’em Poker game, the equivalent of the number of people who tune in to "American Idol." The cost per impression for Texas Hold’em Internet advertisers is $30 less than for "American Idol" ads on TV.

China’s top social networking site, Tencent is the fourth-largest net company, Meeker said, with $1.8 billion in revenue and a market capitalization worth $41 billion. Tencent users create virtual identities that have generated $1.4 billion in virtual goods revenues in 2009.

Taking lessons from Japan, social networking will drive demand for smartphones, Meeker said. Four years ago, Mixi, Japan’s leading social networking site, drew about 17 percent of its page views from mobile phone users. In the past quarter, 84 percent of page views came from mobile phone users.

By Cecilia Kang  | November 16, 2010; 2:26 PM ET
Categories:  Facebook, International, Mobile, Online Video, Social media  
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I think that at some point, we will look at phones vs computer interactivity and value as a puddles vs oceans. We encounter puddles far more frequently, but they just aren't as deep, don't contain as much, and don't hold the same value.

But businesses and people need to understand the power of smart phones as a creative disruptor, and the ways in which using the frequency of those puddles can provide competitive advantages.

Posted by: JohnAkerson | November 17, 2010 8:30 AM | Report abuse

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