Jan. 15, 8:30 p.m.: After a wild Wednesday of games, let’s take a closer look at the NCAA tournament resumes for our three local teams that still have a shot at an at-large bid. I haven’t included American or Navy because they need to win the Patriot League tournament. George Mason most likely needs to win the CAA tourney as well, but I’ve included the Patriots in this discussion.
The three things that jumped out to me:
Georgetown, which has the nation’s toughest schedule (according to Jerry Palm’s RPI), has played only five teams outside the top 100.
Maryland is one of only three teams (Kansas, Arizona the others) in the top 100 of the RPI that has not won a road game.
And George Mason has played only three teams in the top 100.
Vs. top 50: 3-2
Vs. 200 or worse: 2-0
Best win: at U-Conn.
Worst loss: at Notre Dame
X-factor: 10 of 15 opponents ranked among top 100
NCAA forecast: The Hoyas are in strong position for a top four seed in the NCAAs, but they have seven more regular season games against top 50 teams.
Vs. top 50: 2-3
Vs. 200 or worse: 6-0
Best win: vs. Michigan State (Orlando)
Worst loss: Morgan State
X-factor: 0-1 on the road
NCAA forecast: The Terrapins likely need a 9-7 record in the ACC to have a chance for one of the final at-large berths, and six of their final 14 regular season games are against Clemson, Wake Forest, Duke and North Carolina.
George Mason (13-3)
Vs. top 50: 0-0
Vs. 200 or worse: 7-1
Best win: Ohio
Worst loss: at Hampton
X-factor: The Patriots have only played three teams ranked among the top 100.
NCAA forecast: The Patriots likely need to win the CAA tournament to make the field, and they’ll face stiff competition from Northeastern and VCU.
January 15, 2009; 8:25 PM ET
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