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Top of the Arc - March 5, 2009

March 5, 10 a.m.: Does anyone want these last few at-large bids?

Florida, Kentucky, Virginia Tech and Miami all too significant steps back last night. Florida will play Kentucky this weekend, so one of those teams will be all but out of it. The winner of that game will still need to do some work in the SEC tournament.

Virginia Tech (at Florida State) and Maryland (at Virginia) both face must-win situations this weekend.

Such a bad night last night for bubble teams. UNLV’s narrow victory over lowly Air Force seemed like a significant accomplishment because so many other bubble teams went belly-up.

Each morning, I will post my last four teams in the field and my first teams out. As you can tell, it is very difficult to separate one team from another, and selection committee members often differ on which credentials they value most. (SOS means strength of schedule; all records reflect Division I competition; all data courtesy of Jerry Palm’s Web site, www.collegerpi.com)

LAST FOUR IN
Nevada-Las Vegas (21-8, 9-6)
Pros: won at Louisville, swept BYU
Cons: 87 SOS

Penn State (20-9, 9-7)
Pros: 3-2 vs. top 25
Cons: 64 RPI, 10-0 vs. top 200 or worse

Maryland (18-11, 7-8)
Pros: two top five victories
Cons: 2-5 on road

Virginia Tech (17-12, 7-8)
Pros: 5 road wins
Cons: 62 RPI

FIRST TEAMS OUT
Michigan (17-12, 8-9)
Pros: 9 SOS, 5 top 50 wins
Cons: 2-8 on road

Miami (16-11, 6-9)
Pros: 21 SOS, 54 RPI
Cons: 6-9 in ACC

Providence (18-11, 10-7)
Pros: 10-7 in Big East
Cons: 68 RPI, 2-7 vs. top 50

Florida (21-9, 8-7)
Pros: 53 RPI
Cons: 2-7 on road, 2-6 vs. top 50

Notre Dame (15-13, 7-10)
Pros: pounded Louisville, 90-57
Cons: 73 RPI

Cincinnati (17-12, 8-9)
Pros: 4 top 50 wins
Cons: 1-7 vs. top 25

Kentucky (19-11, 8-7)
Pros: 3 top 25 wins
Cons: Poor RPI, SOS

Kansas State (19-10, 8-7)
Pros: Not much
Cons: 84 SOS, 74 RPI

San Diego State (18-8, 10-5)
Pros: Beat Utah, UNLV
Cons: 4-8 vs. top 100

Saint Mary’s (22-5, 10-4)
Pros: 8-3 road record
Cons: 167 SOS, 3-3 vs. top 100

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