Virginia Senate Winner: Mike Bushnell!
And the winner of the Virginia Democratic senatorial primary is....Mike Bushnell.
What, the headlines say it was Jim Webb? Oh yes, yes, Webb won the popular vote. But we're talking the Raw Fisher Predictions Board, where reader Mike Bushnell won the narrowest of victories over two other folks here on the big blog, stanpen and kef. All three of these folks got the margin of victory for Webb over Harris Miller exactly right, at 53 percent to 47 percent.
So we had to go to the tiebreakers, in which you were asked to predict the results in Fairfax, Arlington and Loudoun counties (apologies to Prince William readers and fans who felt left out. The tiebreaker categories were selected more or less at random; I'll get you in there next time.)
And even in the tiebreakers, our top three pundits were incredibly close--to each other. But they all got the local results way wrong. In fact, two of them--kef and Bushnell--had Miller winning in at least one northern Virginia county. But everyone got the Arlington vote so backwards (to be honest, I did too) that each of our three winners were off by more than 40 percentage points if you add up the margins in all three of those local counties. In any event, Bushnell won by 1 percentage point over the other two.
Mike, please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org with your postal address and I'll send out a lovely prize of some sort.
Overall, readers of the big blog did extremely well in calling this election. Twenty-five of you predicted that Webb would win, while only 10 said Miller would prevail.
In other contests, the winner for least votes in a hotly contested category all across Virginia was Norton City, where a grand total of 49 people bothered to vote Tuesday. At the other end of the spectrum was Fairfax County, where 35,000 people voted--more than three times as many as any other jurisdiction in the state. Still, that was an embarrassingly low turnout, if not as low as the statewide tally, which was 3.4 percent of registered voters.
More in the column tomorrow.
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