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You Be the Pundit: Primary Predictions

It's contest time, folks, and the subject is today's primary elections in Maryland and the District. Post your predictions and answers to these five questions by 6 p.m. Tuesday; the reader whose responses come closest to the actual results wins a lovely little prize from the big blog's Vast Vat of Values. (Please check back here Thursday for the winners' names; winners should email me their addresses to receive their prize.)

Here goes:

1. Which, if any, of these incumbents will lose their job in today's vote? (Multiple responses ok.)
a. D.C. Council member Phil Mendelson
b. Maryland Comptroller William Donald Schaefer
c. Montgomery County state senator Ida Ruben
d. Prince George's County Executive Jack Johnson
e. Maryland U.S. Congressman Al Wynn
f. None of the above

2. Which of these jurisdictions will give Maryland U.S. Senate candidate Kweisi Mfume a majority of the vote (50 percent or over)?
a. Prince George's County
b. Baltimore city
c. Charles County
d. None of the above.

3. Predict the order of finish for the four major candidates in the D.C. Democratic mayoral primary. The candidates are Linda Cropp, Adrian Fenty, Marie Johns and Vincent Orange.

4. In three major races in Maryland, a black candidate is facing off against a Jewish candidate, creating contests between two important and generally liberal constituencies with a long history of cooperation and conflict--Ben Cardin vs. Kweisi Mfume in the Senate contest, Doug Gansler against Stuart Simms in the Attorney General race, and Steve Silverman vs. Ike Leggett for Montgomery County Executive. Predict the winners in each of these contests.

5. In the D.C. council chairman contest between Vincent Gray, who is black, and Kathy Patterson, who is white, many experts expect the results to be defined by race. Name the wards, if any, in which either candidate will win despite being of a different race than the plurality of the ward's population. In other words, do you expect Gray to win in Wards 2 or 3, where there is a white majority, or Patterson to win in any of the other wards, where there is a black plurality or majority? Your answer should take the form of a list of Wards in which you expect such a vote against racial affinity, or the word "none."

For guidance, here are the population breakdowns by race for each ward, from the 2000 Census (Hispanics are not included in these breakdowns)
Ward 1: 46 percent black, 25 percent white.
Ward 2: 20 percent black, 61 percent white.
Ward 3: six percent black, 80 percent white.
Ward 4: 71 percent black, 15 percent white.
Ward 5: 88 percent black, seven percent white.
Ward 6: 65 percent black, 30 percent white.
Ward 7: 97 percent black, one percent white.
Ward 8: 91 percent black, five percent white.

TIEBREAKER: Predict the exact percentage of the final vote that Linda Cropp and Adrian Fenty will receive.
Thanks for playing. I will post the winners' names or comment-board handles on the big blog by Thursday or as soon as possible after tallies are final in all jurisdictions. Winners should then contact me by email (marcfisher@washpost.com) with their addresses.

By Marc Fisher |  September 12, 2006; 6:21 AM ET
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Comments

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OK, I'll play.

1. b, and that's it (although I HOPE HOPE HOPE that Donna Edwards beats Al Wynn).

2. a.

3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange.

4. Mfume beats Cardin. Gansler beats Simms. Silverman beats Legget.

5. None. (This is a shot in the dark. I'm a Marylander and haven't paid much attention to the racial-dynamics-by-ward.)

Tiebreaker: 52% Fenty, 40% Cropp.

Posted by: ZachBG | September 12, 2006 8:25 AM

1. b
2. d.
3. Cropp, Fenty, Johns, Orange
4. Cardin beats Mfume, Gansler beats Simms, and Silverman beats Leggett
5. Ward 1: Patterson
Ward 2: Patterson
Ward 3: Patterson
Ward 4: Gray
Ward 5: Gray
Ward 6: Patterson
Ward 7: Gray
Ward 8: Gray

Cropp 37%, Fenty 35%

Posted by: WB | September 12, 2006 8:41 AM

1. Schaefer, Ruben, Johnson go down (okay, that's more hope than prediction). Donna Edwards will beat Wynn next time.

2. Prince George's

3. Cropp, Fenty, Johns, Orange.

4. Cardin, Simms, Silverman

5. Ward 1

Cropp 48, Fenty 43

Posted by: cpvoter | September 12, 2006 8:54 AM

Isn't anyone upset at the fiasco going on in Montgomery County. I was at my polling place at 7am and found out that we couldn't vote except for a paper ballot. And paper ballots take time and there were 15 people in line in front of me. I'll be back in the evening to do my voting.

Someone at my office said that they used a paper ballot but the location only had 40 of them on hand.

Someone really *$%^ed up.

Posted by: mcvoter | September 12, 2006 9:54 AM

1. B - Schaeffer, D - Jack Johnson
2. B, only Baltimore City
3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4. Cardin, Simms, Legett
5. none

Posted by: Laurel-Ind. | September 12, 2006 9:55 AM

1. a, b and c
2. b only
3. Fenty, Cropp, Orange, Johns
4. Cardin, Simms, Leggett
5. Wards 1 and 4
Tie breaker: Fenty 41, Crop 38

Posted by: mdvoter | September 12, 2006 10:06 AM

1. Shafer, Johnson and Wynn
2. D
3. Fenty, Cropp, Orange and Johns
4. Cardin, Simms, Leggett
5. None

6. Tiebreaker: Fenty 43, Cropp 41

The Maryland situation is bizarre. The whole thing was poorly organized, and it got worse as the morning progressed and the voters backed up at the precincts.

Posted by: Lily | September 12, 2006 10:32 AM

1. b, c, d, e
2. a, b
3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4. Mfume, Gansler, Leggett
5. Wards 1 & 6

Tie breaker - Fenty 47%, Cropp 35%

Posted by: philip | September 12, 2006 10:34 AM

Quick Election Note - I voted in Bethesda at 8am this morning and was told I was the first person to vote on the machines? Poll workers were very nice but said they had just received the cards to allow people to vote. That's a little scary, polls opened at 7am.

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2006 10:42 AM

Yah. MoCo election officials totally dropped the ball. And yet they still think nothing can go wrong with no paper trail on the machines?

We had to use provisional ballots at my precinct. And the judges were confused on what paperwork us voters needed to fill out.

Posted by: tallbear | September 12, 2006 10:53 AM

Well one point is clear right away. I sure have a hard time separating what I want to happen with what I predict will happen. This punditry isn't so easy after all.
On to the game:
1) a, b, c, d, e
2)A
3)Fenty, Cropp, Orange, Johns
4) Cardin, Gantzler, Leggett
5)none
TieBreaker - Fenty 45% Cropp - 35%

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2006 10:53 AM

Lets just all remember how MoCo election officials goofed this year when we start to pick on DC government for something in the future. Looks like the DC voting machines are doing just dandy

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2006 10:56 AM

1. b. Maryland Comptroller William Donald
Schaefer
c. Montgomery County state senator
Ida Ruben

2. b. Baltimore city

3. Adrian Fenty
Linda Cropp
Marie Johns
Vincent Orange

4. Ben Cardin
Doug Gansler
Steve Silverman

5. Ward 1
Ward 6

TIEBREAKER: Adrian Fenty: 51%
Linda Cropp: 32%

Posted by: Laney | September 12, 2006 11:02 AM

1. b. Maryland Comptroller William Donald Schaefer
2. a. Prince George's County
b. Baltimore city
3. Order from most votes to fewest: Adrian Fenty, Linda Cropp, Vincent Orange, Marie Johns.
4. Ben Cardin, Doug Gansler, Ike Leggett
5. None
TIEBREAKER: Adrian Fenty, 46; Linda Cropp, 42

Posted by: Nick B | September 12, 2006 11:03 AM

1. b and c
2. a and b
3. Fenty, Cropp, Orange and Johns
4. Cardin, Gansler, Silverman
5. none
Tiebreaker: Fenty 45%, Cropp 40%

Posted by: ConsDemo | September 12, 2006 11:11 AM

1. f
2. b
3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4. Cardin, Gansler, Silverman
5. None
6. Fenty 44%; Cropp 38%

Posted by: TKlein | September 12, 2006 11:48 AM

1. Jack Johnson is beated badly as Prince Georges County wakes up and embraces a better future.

2. Baltimore City

3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, then Orange

4. Simms, Mfume, and Leggett win today

5. Patterson can win WARDs 1 & 6. Gray will not win majority white WARDs.

6. Fenty 40% Cropp 38%

Posted by: Time for change | September 12, 2006 11:50 AM

1) f
2) b
3) Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4) Cardin, Gansler, Silverman
5) Ward 1, Ward 6
tie: Fenty 45, Cropp 41

Posted by: wstring | September 12, 2006 11:57 AM

Hmmm, I know nothing about MD politics, but why not...

1. b,c
2. a,b
3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4. Mfume, Gansler, Silverman
5. Ward 1
TB.Fenty 45%, Cropp 39%

Posted by: EMB in Ward 5 | September 12, 2006 12:06 PM

Ok - here is my .02 opinions!

Which, if any, of these incumbents will lose their job in today's vote? (Multiple responses ok.)
a. D.C. Council member Phil Mendelson
b. Maryland Comptroller William Donald Schaefer
c. Montgomery County state senator Ida Ruben
d. Prince George's County Executive Jack Johnson
e. Maryland U.S. Congressman Al Wynn
f. None of the above

My answer is easy:

a. Phil Mendleson
b. William Donald Schaefer

Note: Jack Johnson is going to have a tougher fight than he thought and the race will be very close i.e. 48% for Jack Johnson and 40% for Mr. Baker. (The rest split on undecided and write in candidates..)


Question 2:
a and b

Question 3:
Adrian Fenty
Linda Cropp
Marie Johns
Vincent Orange

Question 4
a Ben Cardin
b. Doug Gansler
c. Silverman (though I personally really like Ike Leggett the votes just aren't there...)

Question 5:
Ward 1 - Patterson
Ward 2 - Patterson
Ward 3 - Patterson
Ward 4 - Gray
Ward 5 - Gray
Ward 6 - Gray (but close, KP may bet 30% of the vote here.)
Ward 7 - Gray
Ward 8 - Gray

Question 5
Tie breaker
Fenty 40%
Cropp 36%

Posted by: Karen | September 12, 2006 12:19 PM

1 - D
2 - A, B
3 - Fenty, Cropp, Orange, Johns
4 - Cardin, Simms, Silverman
5 - 4, 6
T - Fenty - 47, Cropp 36

Posted by: Joe in SS | September 12, 2006 12:24 PM

Will MoCo's morning voting problems affect certain candidates more than others? I remember reading that white voters generally tended to vote early, while black voters often go to the polls in the evening hours. Is that still true, or just another outdated stereotype?

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2006 12:28 PM

1)b
2)a
3)Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4)Cardin, Gansler, Silverman
5)none
Tiebreaker)Fenty 50 Cropp 32

Posted by: Sam Penney | September 12, 2006 12:30 PM

Question 1: b (Schaeffer) & c (Ruben)
Question 2: a (PG county)
Question 3: Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
Question 4: Cardin, Gansler, Leggett
Question 5: Patterson will win Wards 4 & 6

Tie-Breaker: Fenty 46%; Cropp 42%

Posted by: Bethesda Mom | September 12, 2006 12:34 PM

Hey Marc, what are the two top-runners for DC mayor doing today? Are they hoofing it on the streets or sitting on their campaign headquarters?

Posted by: WB | September 12, 2006 12:41 PM

1. B, D and E
2. A
3. Adrian Fenty, Linda Cropp, Vincent Orange and Marie Johns
4. Kweisi Mfume (because a white against a black on election day is doomed to lose),
Doug Gansler and Steve Silverman all win.
5. Wards 1&2
TIEBREAKER:
Cropp 39.6%
Fenty 44.8%

Posted by: Landon Gildar, Budapest, Hungary& Boyds, MD | September 12, 2006 12:52 PM

on ABC noon, Fenty was saying he'd be out till the polls close at 8pm and Cropp was reminding reporters that its a secret ballot (as they snapping photos of her voting so close that they could probably see the ballot.) Both were dressed to be on the streets working the voters.

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2006 12:54 PM

Any numbers in yet for Prince Georges races???

Posted by: Who's winning | September 12, 2006 1:00 PM

1. a, b (my heart says Rankin and Edwards will win, but the rest of me knows better)
2. a
3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4. Cardin, Gansler, and (unfortunately) Silverman
5. Ward 1 will go for Patterson
Tiebreaker: Fenty 46, Cropp 41

Posted by: Andrew L. | September 12, 2006 1:11 PM

1. b, e
2. a. b.
3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4.Mfume, Gansler, Leggett
5. Ward 1 - Patterson; Ward 2 - None; Ward 3 - None; Ward 4- Patterson; Ward 5 thru 8 - None


Tie breaker - Fenty 47% Cropp 40%

Posted by: Mace | September 12, 2006 1:24 PM

1. b - Schaefer
c - Ruben

2. a. PG County
b. Baltimore City

3. Fenty, Cropp, Orange, Johns

4. Cardin, Gansler, Silverman

5. Ward 1

Tiebreaker - Fenty 45%, Cropp 40%

Posted by: LSP in MoCo | September 12, 2006 1:32 PM

1. C (Ruben) will lose
2. D (None)
3. Fenty, Cropp,Johns, Orange
4. Cardin, Gansler, Silverman all winners
5. None

Tiebreaker: Fenty - 43%, Cropp - 35%

Posted by: Mike (Gaithersburg) | September 12, 2006 1:32 PM

Mark,

Here is my entry:

1: b, d
2. a
3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4. Mfume; Simms; Silverman
5. none
TIEBREAKER: Fenty: 57%; Cropp: 41%

Posted by: A. Jones | September 12, 2006 1:33 PM

1. b-Schaeffer, d-Johnson

2. b-Baltimore

3. Cropp-Fenty-Johns-Orange in order

4. Cardin, Gansler, Leggett wins

5. Patterson takes Wards 1, 4, 5, 6

Breaker: Cropp 42%, Fenty 38%

Posted by: TMS | September 12, 2006 1:58 PM

Here goes:

1. b. Maryland Comptroller William Donald Schaefer
c. Montgomery County state senator Ida Ruben

2. d. None of the above.

3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns and Orange

4. Cardin, Gansler, Leggett

5. Paterson in Ward 1

TIEBREAKER: Fenty 42%, Cropp 33%

Posted by: justguessing | September 12, 2006 2:07 PM

1. b. & d.

2. a. Prince George's County

3. 1. Adrian Fenty
2. Linda Cropp
3. Vincent Orange
4. Marie Johns

4. 1. Ben Cardin vs Kweisi Mfume
Kweisi Mfume
2. Doug Gansler vs Stuart Simms
Stuart Simms
3. Steve Silverman vs Ike Leggett
Ike Leggett

5. None

6. TIEBREAKER:
Fenty 51 % and Cropp 49 %

Posted by: Cathleen | September 12, 2006 2:13 PM

Linda Cropp will defeat Adrian Fenty, 37% to 35% in today's Primary for Mayor.

I am impressed that Cropp's vision and strategy is well thought out and will improve our schools, create jobs and restore safety in our neighborhoods.

Fenty's plan appears unrealistic and lacks a real grasp of the city's budget. Maybe that is because the legislative aspects of Mr. Fenty's job as council member never really interested him. The handful of bills Fenty has authored or passed during his years in the Council does not indicate he is ready to lead the entire city. He still has work to do in Ward Four.

Linda Cropp on the other hand is a dynamic leader and will serve the residents of DC with integrity and determination. She has my vote.

Posted by: Jeremy | September 12, 2006 2:21 PM

1) Rubin and Schaeffer go down
2) PG County and Baltimore
3) Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4) Cardin, Simms, Silverman
5) Ward 1, Ward 6
6) Fenty 42 Cropp 39

Posted by: Gooey | September 12, 2006 2:35 PM

1. Ruben, Johnson, and Wynn (c,d,e)

2. Prince George's County

3. Adrian Fenty, Linda Cropp, Marie Johns, Vincent Orange

4. Cardin, Simms, and Leggett (I don't think the Jew v. African American coincidence is much of anything)

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2006 2:38 PM

1. b, d & e
2. a, b
3. Cropp, Fenty, Orange, Johns
4. Mfume over Cardin, Gansler over Sims, Silverman over Leggett
5. Gray will win Ward 2
tiebreaker: Cropp 48%, Fenty 45%

Posted by: marge | September 12, 2006 2:48 PM

1. b
2. a and b
3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4. Cardin over Mfume, Gansler over Simms, Silverman over Leggett
5. Ward 1: Patterson
Ward 2: Patterson
Ward 3: Patterson
Ward 4: Patterson
Ward 5: Gray
Ward 6: Patterson
Ward 7: Gray
Ward 8: Gray
Tie Breaker: Fenty 42% Cropp 31%,

Posted by: SW Resident | September 12, 2006 2:53 PM

It's my own damn fault for reading your work, but A) how the hell can you "score" such a contest with so many multi-faceted questions and B) why do you make a habit of raising divisive points? You are a chronic whiner and you're too clever by half everytime you think you're displaying political acumen or demographic analysis. Do you really think that voters get into the polls and ask themselves, "Gosh, this guy's a Jew and the other one's Black, so I'd better make a judgment as to whether I'm more anti-semetic or racist?" Of course not. So why pose a question inherently suggesting that those are the criteria that matter? Lord help you when a Black Jew runs against a Gay Muslim and White Scientologist. Every voter I know is deciding Patterson/Gray based on personality/consensus building because they're the same on substance. Do you think Patterson's home precinct will give her a majority because they've already elected her thrice or would you like to say its because they won't vote for a Black? Similarly, are Ward 5's voters racist if they support their current Council Member over a White from another ward?

You really are an embarrasment to the Post.

Posted by: Stan in Dupont | September 12, 2006 3:34 PM

Relax Stan, I think your point is that there is much more to those contests than race and religion. You're right on that. I think that becomes very clear when you try to do the quiz. It is also interesting to think about the other dimensions as well and certainly worth discussion. THe Post article on the Michigan race with the Jewish Groups supporting the candidate who was a former Nation of Islam supporter was interesting too. Its election day, lets just let everyone enjoy it. We do this part of democracy pretty well. (We aren't particularly good at war lately so its good we're good at this.)

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2006 3:42 PM

Hey, Stan from Dupont,

Go find yourself!

Posted by: Loyal Fischer Follower | September 12, 2006 3:49 PM

1. c
2. b
3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4. Cardin, Simms, Leggett
5. Patterson wins Ward 1

Fenty 49%, Cropp 42%

Posted by: MD Marc | September 12, 2006 5:08 PM

1 - A, B, D

2 - A, B

3 - Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange

4 - Mfume, Gansler, Silverman

5 - None

6 - Fenty 47, Cropp 39

Posted by: bilrus | September 12, 2006 5:10 PM

1. a,c
2. a,b
3. Fenty, Cropp, Orange, Johns
4. Cardin, Gansler, Leggett
5. Ward 1 and Ward 6 to Patterson
Tiebreaker: Fenty - 48%, Cropp - 40%

Posted by: SAllen | September 12, 2006 5:33 PM

1. b and e will fall
2. Mfume will carry a and b, but fall
3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4. Cardin, Gansler, Leggett
5. Patterson will carry 1, 4, 6, but sadly fall anyway
tiebreak: Fenty 44, Cropp 41, Other 15

Stan had some good points--but the saddest is how much our society still conditions voting on race

Posted by: logan houston | September 12, 2006 5:51 PM

patterson will win
mendelson will win
fenty 55% cropp 35%

Posted by: martine vose | September 12, 2006 6:54 PM

1. b
2. a,b
3. Fenty, Cropp, Johns, Orange
4. Mfume, Gansler, Silverman
5. Ward 1
6. 36%, 41%

Posted by: Greg Taylor | September 12, 2006 6:55 PM

(I know this is late, but can't resist seeing how I'll do)
1. F
2. D
3. cropp, fenty, orange, johns
4. cardin, gansler,leggett
5. none

tiebrkr: Cropp 43%, Fenty 42% (wishful thinking)

double tiebreaker - 1. Stan in Dupont is a tool. 2. How on earth is a knucklehead like Adrian Fenty the front runner? (I guess the same reason that we voted for a knucklehead for US president twice in a row now)

Thanks Mark!

Posted by: charlie in ward 1 | September 12, 2006 7:06 PM

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