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You Be the Pundit Contest Results

The big winner in Raw Fisher's Election Day edition of You Be the Pundit is Laney, who should email me pronto at marcfisher@washpost.com with a name and address so you can receive your prize.

Some very good guessing in this contest--several people got four or more of the six questions exactly right. Laney's performance was startlingly good--perfect on every question except #2, where our winner correctly predicted that the Virginia marriage amendment would outscore George Allen's campaign, but overestimated that margin at 12 percent rather than the 7.5 percent in the actual vote.

The question that most stumped contestants was #1, which required you to determine which of four incumbents would lose their jobs. As it turned out, three of the four went down--Allen, Bob Ehrlich and Montgomery Council member Howard Denis, and only two of you scored the trifecta on that one.

My own scoresheet was not terribly impressive; I came in with four out of six, good enough to land in the top 10, but that's about it. The winner among the small coterie of in-house Post folks who took part in the contest, who are not eligible for prizes, was Maryland Editor R.B. Brenner.

Almost two-thirds of readers who participated correctly predicted the apparent Webb victory, and one of you, RF, nailed it with a prediction of Webb 49.5 to Allen 49.3--astonishingly close to the actual count of 49.55 to 49.24. RF deserves a prize--please email me and I'll get something out to you. Finally, for you recount fans, I did consider holding off on announcing results until the Virginia Senate outcome is totally official, but even if Allen were to win the recount, it wouldn't change the results of this here contest, so here we are and that's that.

You'll find the questions and the correct answers below. Thanks for playing.

1. Which, if any, of these incumbents will lose their job in today's vote? (Multiple responses ok.)
a. Montgomery County Council member Howard Denis
b. Virginia U.S. Senator George Allen
c. Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich
d. Virginia Rep. Frank Wolf
e. none of the above

CORRECT ANSWER: A, B, and C.

2. Which will win a larger percentage of the vote in Virginia, George Allen's Senate campaign or the constitutional amendment on marriage, and by how much? (Answer should follow this form: "Allen, by 4 percent" or "marriage amendment, by 3 percent.")

CORRECT ANSWER: MARRIAGE, BY 7.5 PERCENT

3. Two Yes or No questions: Will Democratic gubernatorial candidate Martin O'Malley win any Maryland counties other than Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore city? And will he win the election?

CORRECT ANSWER: YES (Howard and Charles counties) and YES

4. Last year, Tim Kaine won the Virginia governor election by collecting 50 percent of the vote in Prince William County, 52 percent in Loudoun County and 60 percent in Fairfax County. Will Democratic Senate candidate Jim Webb surpass Kaine's performance in any of those three northern Virginia counties, and if so, in which of the three?

CORRECT ANSWER: YES, PRINCE WILLIAM (50.5 percent). Loudoun gave Webb 50.1 percent and Fairfax gave him 59 percent, both a tad under Kaine's performance.

5. Rank these three Democratic candidates by the share of the vote (from highest percentage to lowest) they will receive in Prince George's County in their respective races:
a. Senate candidate Ben Cardin
b. Attorney General candidate Doug Gansler
c. Governor candidate Martin O'Malley

CORRECT ANSWER: B (87 percent), C (79.9 percent), A (76 percent).

6. Predict the order of the top two finishers in the race for D.C. school board president:
a. Robert Bobb, Carolyn Graham
b. Robert Bobb, Timothy Jenkins
c. Carolyn Graham, Robert Bobb
d. Carolyn Graham, Timothy Jenkins
e. other

CORRRECT ANSWER: A.

TIEBREAKER:
Predict the Virginia Senate outcome by percentages Allen and Webb will receive (remember that Green Party candidate Gail Parker is also on the ballot).

CORRECT ANSWER: WEBB: 49.55, ALLEN 49.24, PARKER 1.11

By Marc Fisher |  November 9, 2006; 12:31 PM ET
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Martin O'Malley also won in Calvert County. And by a rather large margin 53% to Ehrlich's 46%.

Posted by: Calvert County | November 12, 2006 9:14 PM

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