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Redskins hope better defense will come to pass

The Redskins rank last in the NFL in defense, giving up an average of 423.7 yards per game. The failure of Washington's defense after halftime has been the biggest factor in consecutive losses to the Houston Texans and St. Louis Rams.

The run defense actually hasn't been that bad, ranking 11th at 98 yards. The pass defense, however, has been awful at 325.7 yards, 31st in the 32-team league.

"I think the passing situation is where we really have to improve," Coach Mike Shanahan said. "We have been fairly decent in our rush defense, and that's where it starts. If you can't stop people running the football, usually you are in for a long day. We still have to improve in that area, and hopefully we will get better each week."

Free safety Kareem Moore should help.

The third-year player, who was the defensive star of training camp, missed the first two games while recovering from knee surgery in the preseason. Moore, who had an interception in his first game against the Rams, possesses outstanding deep ball skills and should help the Redskins shore up things down the field.

But poor tackling was a problem against the Rams, and the Redskins must improve significantly in that area Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. If they don't, speedy Eagles wideouts DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin would likely benefit.

"Them guys are explosive, so we [cornerbacks] gotta stay on 'em and keep 'em off our safeties," cornerback Carlos Rogers said. "We gotta be physical all game."

Said strong safety LaRon Landry: "We'll be all right. We got some stuff to fix, so we'll fix it."

By Jason Reid  | October 1, 2010; 9:10 AM ET
Categories:  DeAngelo Hall, Kareem Moore  
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Next: Eagles' LeSean McCoy picks up where Westbrook left off

Comments

If we can keep Djax in check then we will have a good chance in this game. Keeping him in check will be tough considering who we have in our secondary. We might be playing some extra safeties this game...

Posted by: Stu27 | October 1, 2010 9:18 AM | Report abuse

"Them guys are explosive, so we [cornerbacks] gotta stay on 'em and keep 'em off our safeties," cornerback Carlos Rogers said. "We gotta be physical all game."


1) Alert the grammar Nazis

2) [Insert double move joke here]

Posted by: RedDMV | October 1, 2010 9:23 AM | Report abuse

Maybe Fletch can lay a knee into his dome early on in this one so we dont have to worry bout him.
If ST21 is still playing no way the igles draft a player like him.

Posted by: Stu27 | October 1, 2010 9:24 AM | Report abuse

I hate moral victories...I want a real victory!

Redskins 24, Eagles 20

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 9:24 AM | Report abuse

going to B-more as a 4th or 5th WR was insane...

Posted by: brownwood26 | October 1, 2010 8:50 AM | Report abuse

There, fixed it for ya!!!

I agree, wouldn't have been the 'chosen one' to fix all of our problems, but he would have been a lot better than Joey "Go Route" Galloway. He would have had 70-80 catches at least, dude has a little left in the tank!

Posted by: monk811 | October 1, 2010 9:26 AM | Report abuse

Did you say grammar Nazi Red? I'm on it.

Posted by: iH8dallas | October 1, 2010 9:26 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 9:24 AM | Report abuse

No more 24-20 predictions from you, so far we're 0-2 because of you! The defense and running game (or lack thereof) are off the hook!

Posted by: monk811 | October 1, 2010 9:28 AM | Report abuse

Them guys are explosive, so we [cornerbacks] gotta stay on 'em and keep 'em off our safeties," cornerback Carlos Rogers said. "We gotta be physical all game."


1) Alert the grammar Nazis

2) [Insert double move joke here]

Posted by: RedDMV | October 1, 2010 9:23 AM
---------------------------
so true

Posted by: jcnjcnj | October 1, 2010 9:30 AM | Report abuse

Skinny Drew Carey skeeves me out.

Posted by: DikShuttle | October 1, 2010 9:32 AM | Report abuse

No more 24-20 predictions from you, so far we're 0-2 because of you! The defense and running game (or lack thereof) are off the hook!

Posted by: monk811 | October 1, 2010 9:28 AM

Sorry Monk...but that's what the score will be...and we're only 0-1 when I make that prediction!

Oh and I was catching up on last nights banter...and noticed that you really are a monk? Wells that's shocking!

I can't beleive you NERDS are on here like until midnight! haha

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 9:33 AM | Report abuse

Skinny Drew Carey skeeves me out.

Posted by: DikShuttle | October 1, 2010 9:32 AM


Dude, 100% agree...at first I thought he had cancer or something, but when I found out he just got "tired of being fat" I was totally stunned. Never thought I'd say this, but some people just look better fat. He's one of 'em.

Posted by: brownwood26 | October 1, 2010 9:37 AM | Report abuse

I can't beleive you NERDS are on here like until midnight! haha

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 9:33 AM
---------------------------------
Just a question....What does NERDS mean?
I know tha ITA in RI has it own meaning.

Posted by: jcnjcnj | October 1, 2010 9:38 AM | Report abuse

What the h*ll is Mark Maeske doing a humanitarian piece on Vick for?? "Not just a better player. A better man" Gimme a f--king break. This punk-a$$ b!tch literally killed dogs with his own two hands. And what's his first big piece of news since signing with the Eagles? His homie and fellow thug/dog killer gets shot. At Vick's birthday party. After Vick was involved in a scuffle. 3 minutes after Vick tucked tail and ran.

I have little doubt Michael Vick is a better person than he was before he went to jail. Hard to not improve on that. But for this type of aggrandizement- in a Washington DC paper, no less- is nothing short of ridiculous. I love this quote:

Asked this week for a reaction to Vick's return to prominence, the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals issued a written statement through a spokesperson that said: "As long as he's throwing a football and not electrocuting a dog, PETA is pleased he is focused on his game."

Posted by: Notorious_LMG | October 1, 2010 9:33 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: Notorious_LMG | October 1, 2010 9:38 AM | Report abuse

"...the rays are on the verge of winning the East, and they STILL can't sell out...the team gave away like 15,000 tickets the other night, and only had 20,000 people at the game..."

That's why I give the finger to people who complain that the Yanks, Sawx, Mets, Cubbies, et al dominate the talent market by handing out big contracts.

If you like the Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Pirates, Diamondbacks, NATS, and Rays, go to their games...

...and shut up.

Posted by: MistaMoe | October 1, 2010 9:40 AM | Report abuse

(Brian and Stewie are on a German tour bus.)

German Tour Guide: You vill find more on Germany's contributions to ze arts in ze pamphlets ve have provided.

Brian : Yeah, about your pamphlet... uh, I'm not seeing anything about German history between 1939 and 1945. There's just a big gap.

Tour guide: Everyone vas on vacation. On your left is Munich's first city hall, erected in 15...

Brian : Wait, what are you talking about? Germany invaded Poland in 1939 and...

Tour Guide: We were invited. Punch vas served. Check vit Poland.

Brian : You can't just ignore those years. Thomas Mann fled to America because of Nazism's stranglehold on Germany.

Tour guide: Nope, nope. He left to manage a Dairy Queen.

Brian : A Dairy Queen? That's preposterous.

Tour guide: I vill hear no more insinuations about the German people. Nothing bad happened. Sie werden sich hinsetzen. Sie werden ruhig sein. Sie werden nicht beleidigen Deutschland. You will sit down. You will shut up. You will not insult Germany. (Throws his hand up in a Hitler salute.)

Brian : Uh, is that a beer hall?

Tour guide: (Snapping out of it) Oh yes, Munich is renowned for its historic beer halls.

Posted by: RedDMV | October 1, 2010 9:41 AM | Report abuse

"Them guys are explosive, so we [cornerbacks] gotta stay on 'em and keep 'em off our safeties," cornerback Carlos Rogers said. "We gotta be physical all game."


1) Alert the grammar Nazis

2) [Insert double move joke here]

Posted by: RedDMV | October 1, 2010 9:23 AM | Report abuse


C'mon, Red. You know the drill. You forgot an important one:


3) Make reference to inability to catch the ball.

Posted by: p1funk | October 1, 2010 9:42 AM | Report abuse

I think saying the rush defense in ranked 11th is misleading. The only reason they haven't given up a lot of rushing yards is because their pass defense gives up tons of yards as is so teams don't run the ball often. That combined with Dallas never running and the Rams losing Steven Jackson is probably why the rush defense looks good. Anyone know the yards per rush attempt the Skins are giving up?

Posted by: NFeKPo | October 1, 2010 9:46 AM | Report abuse

Just a question....What does NERDS mean?
I know tha ITA in RI has it own meaning.


Posted by: jcnjcnj | October 1, 2010 9:38 AM | Report abuse

Disclamer - The word NERD on any blog or post on RI is meant to be FUNNY. Those so labeled should not take OFFENSE or FREAK OUT when called such name. Nor is monk811 trying to act cool or funny to prove something, just trying to get a laugh people. He's just a simple student learning at the Monk School of the Arts, and drinking his Bud in the monastary. If you do take offense, well, f*ck you. Oops, hail mary, full of grace......

Posted by: monk811 | October 1, 2010 9:47 AM | Report abuse

Asked this week for a reaction to Vick's return to prominence, the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals issued a written statement through a spokesperson that said: "As long as he's throwing a football and not electrocuting a dog, PETA is pleased he is focused on his game."

Posted by: Notorious_LMG

Arf-arf-.arf...And on a similar note, ever wonder why Jews and Muslims wear those yarmulkas or potholders for?? They've got a secret electrical hookup for "The Chair", BRRRRZZZZZZZZZAP!!! arf-arf-arf..

Posted by: frak | October 1, 2010 9:48 AM | Report abuse

Bring back memories, RedD?

You were over there, right? How long?

I was in Heidelberg for 4 years... of course, I was 7... so I didn't drink quite as much as I would now.

But I did play this for all my German friends... until my Mom ran frantically into the room, tackling the record player.

Posted by: DikShuttle | October 1, 2010 9:48 AM | Report abuse

If you like the Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Pirates, Diamondbacks, NATS, and Rays, go to their games...

...and shut up.

Posted by: MistaMoe | October 1, 2010 9:40 AM | Report abuse

I agree with your general point, but you're wrong about some of the teams. The Brewers actually had better attendance than the Mets this year, and the Twins are fans are among the most loyal and with the new stadium, supportive at the box office, averaging a sellout this year and better attendance (percentage wise) than the Yankees.

Posted by: Notorious_LMG | October 1, 2010 9:52 AM | Report abuse

Uh, Moe, no one complains about the NATS and them NOT being able to sellout around here. They don't because they SUCK, it's that simple. No one around here complains about big market teams or teams from those markets taking all the talented players, because if and when the Nats decide to remove the cement from their asses and play f-ing baseball, they WOULD draw talent.


If the Nats were half the contenders the Rays or Twins are, NATS park would be sold out on the regular NO QUESTION.


But good for you trying to take a swipe at DMV baseball fans just for the sake of swiping. Again, there's no secret why Natinals (sic) can't sellout. The Rays are the mystery. They've been pretty good for the last 3, 4 years and they LITERALLY can't give tickets away.

Posted by: RedDMV | October 1, 2010 9:52 AM | Report abuse

Body Bag Revenge Game - Paybacks are Hell.

Woof.

It is time, after being embarrassed by the league's used tampax team, The Rams, for the Redskins to rise up and settle a couple of scores.

Woof.

We need to turn this game in Filthydelphia into the revenge for the infamous game where Redskins were carted off the field so often that replacements were injuring themselves to avoid going into the game.

The Redskins must eliminate from the game and for all time the rise of the Dog Killer to Respectability. We need to release Brian Orakpo to chase and harass Mike Vick and to level him with all due disrespect - and with orders that he, Orakpo, gets to take two personal foul penalities if needed. From the outset of the game, Vick must be punished, smashed, and abused. He must be forced into remembering he is really a running back and be reduced to fleeing a hit squad. This current Vick is really a charade - a made for television movie that is devoid of fact and substance. It is up to the Redskins to bring Vick to the ground and to remove his remaking of his image from a Dog Basher and Killer to Mr Rogers.

Any Filthydelphia player who can have his name turned into a wonderful thug, rap artist name (like DJax) needs to be hit and hit often. We need to end this pathetic tendency to reduce a proper name into a thug name. And let's do it with pain.

Donovan McNabb needs to torch Filthydelphia so often that the smell coming from the Filthy sidelines is that of pork rinds being made from Andy Reid's corpse as his team is destroyed. No other coach in the NFL has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory than Andy Reid with game plans so ill-conceived that if I was a betting man, I'd swear he was throwing games.

Insert Albert Haynesworth into the game as a lead blocker on offense. His flopping skills will eliminate at least five Filthy players from being crushed. Then we can hand him the ball (after telling him it is a pizza) and he can roll into the end zone crushing more Filthy players.

Deangelo Hall needs to make this his bling game and torch Vick's pass attempts for two interceptions returned for touchdowns. We need to ensure that Vick has more interceptions than touchdowns in this game to remove another talking point from the suckup Vick press.

Posted by: laserwizard | October 1, 2010 9:55 AM | Report abuse

Frak, I'm not even sure I get that...

I saw a couple minutes of the Jim Mora/Ron Mexico interview - Mora professes support for Vick, who then promptley dismisses it acknowledging his duplicitous nature.

Given Vick's brother's behavior also, I'm suspecting they're sociopathic.

Posted by: DikShuttle | October 1, 2010 9:55 AM | Report abuse

Though the facts don't suggest that the relationship has improved to the level of "fine", Haynesworth made a surprising concession in the interview, which did not makes its way into the written summary at ESPN.com. He says that, although he'll work out with his own trainer in March and April, he'll attend the offseason practices and minicamps in 2011.

It's all moot is there's a lockout, but it at least suggests that Haynesworth is coming around.

That said, there's still a good chance that Shanahan would ship him to the first team with a 4-3 defense that offers a second-round pick, either before the October 19 trading deadline or in the offseason.

from bottom half of pft post

Posted by: swalker5 | October 1, 2010 9:57 AM | Report abuse

"But good for you trying to take a swipe at DMV baseball fans just for the sake of swiping."


Yeah, the swipe was a lil off base.

The NATS are in a tricky place: should they spend money to build around SS (once he's healthy) or pretend there's no market for major league baseball in the DMV.

I'd say there is as even the lowly O's draw from what I see.

Posted by: MistaMoe | October 1, 2010 10:00 AM | Report abuse

Just a question....What does NERDS mean?
I know tha ITA in RI has it own meaning.

Posted by: jcnjcnj | October 1, 2010 9:38 AM | Report abuse

Disclamer - The word NERD on any blog or post on RI is meant to be FUNNY. Those so labeled should not take OFFENSE or FREAK OUT when called such name. Nor is monk811 trying to act cool or funny to prove something, just trying to get a laugh people. He's just a simple student learning at the Monk School of the Arts, and drinking his Bud in the monastary. If you do take offense, well, f*ck you. Oops, hail mary, full of grace......

Posted by: monk811 | October 1, 2010 9:47 AM

Jcn...I don't think NERD is code for anything here...it just means geek, dweeb, etc.

Monk, since you have had a couple rough RI days this week, and it is friday, I am going to try and work in NERD into all of my posts today.

But I'm a bit under the weather...and should probably get some work done, so I'll probably be mostly lurking today.

Redskins 24, Eagles 20.

That's my final answer.

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 10:00 AM | Report abuse

Frak- your grammar sucks, you have a sense of humor but it's basic and uninspired best I can tell, and your apparently a xenophobic hatemonger. The judges have conferred and...Congratulations, you're a d-bag!!

Posted by: Notorious_LMG | October 1, 2010 10:01 AM | Report abuse

Scamphole stepped in it again! Told the guy to "shoot yourself in the face"

Nice.

Why don't you go ahead and do the same, RedneckRacist1975?

By the way, Hoover also got 4 years. Look it up, Beatch. I would explain all the circumstances to you, but you're a Glenn Beck/Rush Limbaugh disciple, so I don't want to interfere with the history lessons they give you.

Dingbat.

Called the man racist for nothing. While defending a racist post.

You should change your handle to ScumBall. You're a F'king disgrace to your team's fans.

And put the beers down, Alchie. A bit early in the day, isn't it?

Redneck piece of sh!t.

Posted by: Thinker_ | October 1, 2010 5:07 AM |

Early in the day huh? 9:55 pm is early in the day? Believe me, all this coming from you is more a compliment than anything else since you have repeatedly proven yourself to be at perineum/pabrian level so thanks. I'm glad to know that your such a fan that you look out for my posts to comment on. Nice to know I have such a profound effect on your obviously meaningless and pathetic life.

Posted by: scampbell1975 | October 1, 2010 10:02 AM | Report abuse

Body Bag Revenge Game - Paybacks are Hell.

Woof.

It is time, after being embarrassed by the league's used tampax team, The Rams, for the Redskins to rise up and settle a couple of scores.

Woof.

We need to turn this game in Filthydelphia into the revenge for the infamous game where Redskins were carted off the field so often that replacements were injuring themselves to avoid going into the game.

The Redskins must eliminate from the game and for all time the rise of the Dog Killer to Respectability. We need to release Brian Orakpo to chase and harass Mike Vick and to level him with all due disrespect - and with orders that he, Orakpo, gets to take two personal foul penalities if needed. From the outset of the game, Vick must be punished, smashed, and abused. He must be forced into remembering he is really a running back and be reduced to fleeing a hit squad. This current Vick is really a charade - a made for television movie that is devoid of fact and substance. It is up to the Redskins to bring Vick to the ground and to remove his remaking of his image from a Dog Basher and Killer to Mr Rogers.

Any Filthydelphia player who can have his name turned into a wonderful thug, rap artist name (like DJax) needs to be hit and hit often. We need to end this pathetic tendency to reduce a proper name into a thug name. And let's do it with pain.

Donovan McNabb needs to torch Filthydelphia so often that the smell coming from the Filthy sidelines is that of pork rinds being made from Andy Reid's corpse as his team is destroyed. No other coach in the NFL has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory than Andy Reid with game plans so ill-conceived that if I was a betting man, I'd swear he was throwing games.

Insert Albert Haynesworth into the game as a lead blocker on offense. His flopping skills will eliminate at least five Filthy players from being crushed. Then we can hand him the ball (after telling him it is a pizza) and he can roll into the end zone crushing more Filthy players.

Deangelo Hall needs to make this his bling game and torch Vick's pass attempts for two interceptions returned for touchdowns. We need to ensure that Vick has more interceptions than touchdowns in this game to remove another talking point from the suckup Vick press.

Posted by: laserwizard | October 1, 2010 9:55 AM | Report abuse

I like you

Posted by: iH8dallas | October 1, 2010 10:04 AM | Report abuse

Shuttles, I was over there for three years in a small village called Babenhausen, or about 30K from Darmstadt. But I traveled all over. Was very familiar with cities like Heidelberg, Kaiserslauten, Weisbaden, Manhiem, Frankfurt, and all the rest of 'em -- in WEST Germany..

And that Family Guy skit is about 75% accurate. It seems that they'd rather just write '39-'45 right on out of the history books.


It was in Germany where I found my love for the drizzank.... Built up my tolerance over there. It was funny 'cuz at 19 I couldn't drink legally over here of course (on post or off) but over there no matter where you were it was all good.

Fun times in Deutschland, no doubt!

Posted by: RedDMV | October 1, 2010 10:07 AM | Report abuse

I like you...no homo....


fixed it for you....

Posted by: BeantownGreg1 | October 1, 2010 10:07 AM | Report abuse

I hate moral victories...I want a real victory!

Redskins 24, Eagles 20

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 9:24 AM

When have we had a moral victory yet this year? Even our win was bad.

Co-sign on Drew Carey... although the ball through the hand thing was funny.

Posted by: Rypien11 | October 1, 2010 10:10 AM | Report abuse

Philadelphia = NERDadelphia

Posted by: monk811 | October 1, 2010 10:11 AM | Report abuse

I like you

Posted by: iH8dallas | October 1, 2010 10:04 AM

Haha...the only thing missing is DT's two kickoff return touchdowns (with no illegal block or holding penalaties)

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 10:11 AM | Report abuse

Lol Brownie,

He was prolly getting dissed by the PiR models and wanted to BBarker action... well, he was skinny... old, but skinny....got plenty o' play.

Posted by: DikShuttle | October 1, 2010 10:12 AM | Report abuse

I like you...no homo....


fixed it for you....

Posted by: BeantownGreg1 | October 1, 2010 10:07 AM | Report abuse

Good assist Greg

Posted by: iH8dallas | October 1, 2010 10:13 AM | Report abuse

I hate moral victories...I want a real victory!

Redskins 24, Eagles 20

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 9:24 AM

When have we had a moral victory yet this year? Even our win was bad.

Posted by: Rypien11 | October 1, 2010 10:10 AM

Someone last thread said they wouldn't mind a moral victory.

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 10:14 AM | Report abuse

hate moral victories...I want a real victory!

Redskins 24, Eagles 20

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 9:24 AM

When have we had a moral victory yet this year? Even our win was bad.

Posted by: Rypien11 | October 1, 2010 10:10 AM

Someone last thread said they wouldn't mind a moral victory.

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 10:14 AM

Any victory right now is sorely needed. But I, too, would prefer the actual type as opposed to the moral type. I'm not sure what a moral victory would be without the score to back it up at this point.

Posted by: scampbell1975 | October 1, 2010 10:16 AM | Report abuse

hate moral victories...I want a real victory!

Redskins 24, Eagles 20

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 9:24 AM

When have we had a moral victory yet this year? Even our win was bad.

Posted by: Rypien11 | October 1, 2010 10:10 AM

Someone last thread said they wouldn't mind a moral victory.

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 10:14 AM

Any victory right now is sorely needed. But I, too, would prefer the actual type as opposed to the moral type. I'm not sure what a moral victory would be without the score to back it up at this point.

Posted by: scampbell1975 | October 1, 2010 10:16 AM | Report abuse

Someone last thread said they wouldn't mind a moral victory.

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 10:14 AM

Whoops...some NERD last thread said they wouldn't mind a moral victory.

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 10:17 AM | Report abuse

Monk, since you have had a couple rough RI days this week, and it is friday, I am going to try and work in NERD into all of my posts today.

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 10:00 AM | Report abuse

Cool, I am honored. And since you have had a bad time with your predictions, I'll try and work in more sarcasm and immature jokes into my posts today (not an insult, I love immature jokes). Deal? Ready, break......

Posted by: monk811 | October 1, 2010 10:18 AM | Report abuse

Argh, a double post on a pointless post. No good

Posted by: scampbell1975 | October 1, 2010 10:18 AM | Report abuse

Shuttles, I was over there for three years in a small village called Babenhausen, or about 30K from Darmstadt. But I traveled all over. Was very familiar with cities like Heidelberg, Kaiserslauten, Weisbaden, Manhiem, Frankfurt, and all the rest of 'em -- in WEST Germany..

And that Family Guy skit is about 75% accurate. It seems that they'd rather just write '39-'45 right on out of the history books.


It was in Germany where I found my love for the drizzank.... Built up my tolerance over there. It was funny 'cuz at 19 I couldn't drink legally over here of course (on post or off) but over there no matter where you were it was all good.

Fun times in Deutschland, no doubt!

Posted by: RedDMV | October 1, 2010 10:07 AM
------------------------------------------
I was on business in Heidelberg in July. Love the hefeweizen. Love Germany and you are dead on about WWII. I have a friend over there who says it is "that of which we do not speak".

Posted by: RedSkinHead | October 1, 2010 10:19 AM | Report abuse

Philadelphia = NERDadelphia

Posted by: monk811 | October 1, 2010 10:11 AM | Report abuse

"Nerd" isn't a good pejorative for Philly fans. Nerds are highly intelligent but socially inept. Philly fans are the latter but not the former.

Posted by: swowra | October 1, 2010 10:19 AM | Report abuse

It seems like alot of people are writing us off this week. I like it that handicappers are on this game...

Chad Millman:

Handicappers, more than anything, see themselves as contrarians.

They live on the fringes of society, making money at something most see as lurid or unseemly or vaguely illegal. And that's how they like it. They have found a niche they can exploit and the more people don't understand that, the better their chances of winning.

That's true when you take a closer look at their wagering philosophies, too. The system guys who break down historical numbers to come to a conclusion and the stats geeks examining every team's yards per play are looking for the same thing: an angle no one else has noticed, an area they can exploit. Inevitably that means betting against the public. And this week that means contrarians are desperately looking for reasons to bet the Washington Redskins against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Philly has all the ingredients that make it a public play: A hot team getting a lot of pub, a high-scoring team and a dazzling quarterback. Based on those three factors alone, squares will assume that the Eagles can easily cover the current 6.5-point spread. Add in the fact the Redskins had a high profile late-game collapse against Houston two weeks ago and followed that with a loss to the previously pitiful Rams, and the public's affinity for the Eagles grows even greater. Geoff Kulesa, who runs freesportsbet.com, tracks wagers through his site. Of the 9,000 plays on Philly-Washington so far, 66 percent were on the Eagles.

"Going into last week, the Rams had gone 6-44 in their last 50 games dating back to the start of the 2007 season. Then the Redskins lost to them -- by two TDs. That makes the Skins a nonstarter this week for most bettors. For me, it's a hint to look hard," says Kulesa. "The NFL is a contrarian league. Go against the obvious and the public and overall you are going to do well. Follow the herd in the NFL and you're going to be in the poorhouse."

Which brings us to our System of the Week. When Kulesa ran his database in search of ways to justify betting the Redskins, he plugged in this formula: How did current dogs that underperformed the spread by two touchdowns in their previous game perform against the spread? It's a simple idea that pinpoints spots where bettors might let their recency bias get the best of them, potentially opening up some value for contrarians. "Washington was favored over the Rams by 3.5 points but lost outright by 14 points -- a 17.5 point swing," says Kulesa. "Since 2004 the system has gone 155-103 (60 percent) ATS. That's a very large sample. Last week it was right on target, going 3-2, backing Seattle, Tennessee, Dallas, Jacksonville and Carolina."

Of course, the question is, how can we know that the Redskins will be on the positive side of this trend? There is one other game that falls into this category this week: The Niners as 6.5-point dogs in Atlanta.

Posted by: rich20ssu | October 1, 2010 10:19 AM | Report abuse

Frak- your grammar sucks, you have a sense of humor but it's basic and uninspired best I can tell, and your apparently a xenophobic hatemonger. The judges have conferred and...Congratulations, you're a d-bag!!

Posted by: Notorious_LMG


Thanks for accepting me into your esteemed company..

Posted by: frak | October 1, 2010 10:20 AM | Report abuse

And, I'm sorry to say, the truth is, we can't know for sure. Like I write every week, handicappers don't bet these systems blindly. They use them as starting points to see if there are any games that lend themselves to being better bets percentage wise. Then they do the wiseguy thing and break the teams down head to head. The idea, as always with this blog, isn't to give a man a fish but to teach a man to fish. Betting just because some data has been mined is a long-term losing proposition.

Once Kulesa found a system that hinted at a Redskins advantage, he broke the game down even more, using some stats that every wiseguy worth his bankroll examines when looking for value.

"The Skins beat Dallas but then lost two straight. But they really outplayed Houston and should probably be 2-1," says Kulesa. "While Michael Vick is playing ridiculously well right now, Donovan McNabb is not that far behind, throwing for 8.17 yards per attempt, sixth in the league. I think that is overlooked in the two losses. Philly, meanwhile, has beaten two cupcakes in Detroit and Jacksonville and allowed 27+ points in two of their games. The one good team they played (Green Bay) beat them by a touchdown in Philly. In their two wins, they were +3 on turnovers (which is mostly random luck). Philly has benefited from some very big plays and low turnovers. Both are not sustainable over the long haul. Philly is a good team, but not great."

Despite, Kulesa believes, what the public thinks

Posted by: rich20ssu | October 1, 2010 10:21 AM | Report abuse

"Nerd" isn't a good pejorative for Philly fans. Nerds are highly intelligent but socially inept. Philly fans are the latter but not the former.

Posted by: swowra | October 1, 2010 10:19 AM

I have come across some really dumb NERDs too.

And thanks...I had to look up pejorative! Guess I'm no NERD...

Now off to take another swig of my dayquil and stare at the monitor.

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 10:24 AM | Report abuse

All good, Moe. We kinda know what it is around here when it comes to the professional teams.


They suck.

Or they're frontin' wearing a "contenders mask" but underneath the mask is the face of suck face pretender.

Posted by: RedDMV | October 1, 2010 10:25 AM | Report abuse

Just Beat Philly, and beat them good.

I want to see Donovan taking knees to run out the clock in the 4th quarter.

Posted by: iH8dallas | October 1, 2010 10:25 AM | Report abuse

Cool, I am honored. And since you have had a bad time with your predictions, I'll try and work in more sarcasm and immature jokes into my posts today (not an insult, I love immature jokes). Deal? Ready, break......

Posted by: monk811 | October 1, 2010 10:18 AM

Deal monk...but I was mcuh closer with my prediction last week than most of the nerds on here!

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 10:28 AM | Report abuse

Now off to take another swig of my dayquil and stare at the monitor.


Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 10:24 AM | Report abuse

Actually, the most Nerds per capita are probably in Washington D.C., which has the highest rate of college degrees in the U.S.

The bottom of the list? Cleveland.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/01/pf/college/Americas_brainiest_cities/index.htm?hpt=T2

Posted by: swowra | October 1, 2010 10:29 AM | Report abuse

Its a done deal. skins win with Charles Barkley in the house rocking 5 BnG gear

Posted by: swalker5 | October 1, 2010 10:31 AM | Report abuse

hilly has benefited from some very big plays and low turnovers. Both are not sustainable over the long haul. Philly is a good team, but not great."

Despite, Kulesa believes, what the public thinks

Posted by: rich20ssu | October 1, 2010 10:21 AM | Report abuse

IMO the Skins will move the ball against Philly. The issue will be red zone effectiveness. Philly's LB have had issues with covering TEs and RBs. Both Cooley and Davis should have big days. I'm also going to put K. Williams as another player to watch as he is the best pass catching RB on the team.

Posted by: TWISI | October 1, 2010 10:33 AM | Report abuse

"Handicappers, more than anything, see themselves as contrarians.They live on the fringes of society, making money at something most see as lurid or unseemly or vaguely illegal. And that's how they like it. They have found a niche they can exploit and the more people don't understand that, the better their chances of winning."

LOL there's a new book out worth reading for those who place the occasional sports bet. It's called "Lay The Favorite" and is by Beth Raymer (reviewed in this week's SI). Includes some entertaining tales as well as rules for successful gambling, one of which is don't listen to any tout who calls himself a handicapper and charges a fee -- the only good handicapper works for a select clientele of really big bettors who routinely turn a profit.

Back when I was single I used to bet occasionally on football to pay for ski trips to Tahoe every year. Used this method: 1) never bet on a game where you have an emotional investment in one of th teams (such as Washington); 2) don't start betting until midway through the season, when you have a better idea of a team's likely performance; 3) never bet on more than 2 games a week; 4) look particularly for late-season games between a club that's made the playoffs and one that is out of the running, with the playoff club rated 6 points or better. Of course, I didn't bother studying the teams beyond the superficial -- don't know whether that made it better or worse. Did pay for a lot of ski trips.

Posted by: Samson151 | October 1, 2010 10:35 AM | Report abuse

Philadelphia = NERDadelphia

Posted by: monk811 | October 1, 2010 10:11 AM | Report abuse

"Nerd" isn't a good pejorative for Philly fans. Nerds are highly intelligent but socially inept. Philly fans are the latter but not the former.


Posted by: swowra | October 1, 2010 10:19 AM | Report abuse

How about these changes?

DUMBadelphia
STUPIDdelphia
PEDAFILEadelphia

Was the last one too much?

Posted by: monk811 | October 1, 2010 10:35 AM | Report abuse

beep

Posted by: TWISI | October 1, 2010 10:36 AM | Report abuse

Just Beat Philly, and beat them good.

I want to see Donovan taking knees to run out the clock in the 4th quarter.

Posted by: iH8dallas | October 1, 2010 10:25 AM

Agreed.

Posted by: scampbell1975 | October 1, 2010 10:36 AM | Report abuse

I hate moral victories...I want a real victory!

Redskins 24, Eagles 20

Posted by: PlayAction | October 1, 2010 9:24 AM | Report abuse

I like it. Yes, we've got serious matchup probs. But I think McNabb is going to bring his absolute A-game and leave it all on the field. And Vick cannot keep passing this well...can he??

Bold prediction: McNabb runs for more yards than Vick.

HTTR

Posted by: Notorious_LMG | October 1, 2010 10:37 AM | Report abuse

"hilly has benefited from some very big plays and low turnovers. Both are not sustainable over the long haul. Philly is a good team, but not great."Despite, Kulesa believes, what the public thinks. Posted by: rich20ssu |"

Oh yes, Philly has definitely been playing over its head. Don't forget this is a club that had more turnover among veterans than any other in the NFL. If Kolb was playing, you'd see the problems immediately. Vick is hot and making up the difference. But it's pretty clear that if some team manages to corral him, the Igs are in trouble.

Posted by: Samson151 | October 1, 2010 10:38 AM | Report abuse

Both Cooley and Davis should have big days

agreed twis, but the problem is that both these guys should have been featured since day 1/game 1....

Posted by: BeantownGreg1 | October 1, 2010 10:40 AM | Report abuse

Being solid against the run but horrible against the pass? I think this supports my theory that the Redskins are playing with the linebackers too close to the line of scrimmage. Back the linebackers up. Get them into pass coverage. Give them better angles. Fake more blitzes than you run. I think this tweaks will improve the defense. Haslett seems intent on crowding the LOS and blitzing on darned near every play. The Rams figured out how to beat that. And the Eagles will copy them. Who wants to bet we see more than a few wide receiver screen passes in this game? Carlos Rogers suggests more bump and run coverage by the corners, but the Eagles will counter that with stacking receivers - which makes the wide receiver screen much more plausible. I like the cover two in a nickel package with an extra corner in coverage and Landry spying on Vick.

Posted by: RedSkinHead | October 1, 2010 10:41 AM | Report abuse

One of the biggest problems that the Redskins Defense has, as far as I'm concerned, and I've seen this the while season, thus far, is CARLOS ROGERS. He can't play! He does not cover his man properly. He stays too far away from his man. His man can always catch any pass. He'll never make an interception unless the ball is thrown so far off the mark, that I could catch it, and I'm 66 years old. He is pathetic and we need him off the field and off the team. I get scared every time I see him on the field. When the other team throws toward him, we're in trouble 9 times out of 10. You just watch!

Posted by: stoney43 | October 1, 2010 1:54 PM | Report abuse

I wanted to comment about the fact that Carlos Rogers is the poorest player we have, but my comments that I just wrote about him never covering his man properly and always being behind him, weren't acceptable, so I won't say anymore, except that the team should get rid of Rogers!!!

Posted by: stoney43 | October 1, 2010 1:57 PM | Report abuse

Wow, my initial comments were accepted after I wrote it, even tho I had gotten feedback saying that it was too long and it could not be printed... oh well.
have a great day. I've had my say, at last, about that ding-a-ling Rogers. If we can lose him and that dopey gigantic defensive lineman, old what's his name... the billion dollar dope, we'd be a lot better off. Now, I'll shut up...

Posted by: stoney43 | October 1, 2010 2:04 PM | Report abuse

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