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A look at the decision making in Sunday's overtime

Statistical analysis

The Washington Redskins and the Houston Texans faced nearly identical situations in overtime Sunday. Houston had a fourth and 4 at the Washington 34, and on the following drive, the Redskins had a fourth and 7 at the Houston 34. Texans Coach Gary Kubiak called for the punt, and Redskins Coach Mike Shanahan called for a field-goal attempt. Which coach was right?

First, let's clarify a couple things. In the NFL, field-goal kickers are statistically indistinguishable. At most, they kick about 40 attempts in a season, all from various distances and in various conditions, and they all average around 80 percent accuracy once you adjust for attempted distance. Also, the concept of "clutch" is drastically overstated. Kickers simply don't attempt enough kicks in their entire careers to declare one kicker better than another in clutch situations. Doing so would be like looking at a baseball player's batting average only ten games into a season and claiming he's truly a .500 or .100 hitter. Where kickers can differ significantly is at long range, but Graham Gano and Neil Rackers are both known for their big legs. Basically, kickers are far more alike than their raw accuracy statistics suggest.

We can judge the decisions by Kubiak and Shanahan using a concept called Win Probability (WP), which is an estimate of how often teams win given a particular state of a game: down, distance, field position, score and time. For example, at 7:59 in the first quarter with a 3-point lead, Chris Cooley's 35-yard reception put the Redskins at first and goal at the Houston 7, giving them a 75 percent chance of winning. WP is based on averages of winning percentages from game situations in the past several NFL seasons.

Back to the overtime situation on Sunday: Punts from that region of the field typically end up around the 10-yard line. In overtime, teams with a first down at their own 10 have a 35 percent chance of winning, meaning the punting team could expect a 65 percent chance of prevailing.

A 51-yard field goal attempt in the NFL is good 55 percent of the time, and there's no reason to suspect that either Gano or Rackers would have an advantage over the other. (In fact, Gano was 1 for 2 counting his initial "iced" kick.) So 45 percent of the time, the opponent takes over with a first down at its own 41. This equates to a 35 percent chance of winning for the kicking team.

With just a little math -- nothing more than what many people do on a spreadsheet at the office every day -- we can calculate the field-goal kicking team's overall chances of winning:

0.55 + (1-0.55) * (0.35) = 0.71

So that tells us that attempting a 51-yard field goal in overtime gives a team about a 71 percent chance of winning. The key: Missing the field goal is not a death sentence. It's not a good thing, by any means, but it still leaves a team with more than a fighting chance.

The 71 percent chance of winning with the field goal attempt is obviously better than the 65 percent of winning with the punt. A coach would either need to think that his kicker is drastically worse than league average or be assured that a punt would certainly end up inside the 5-yard line for the punt to be the better call.

It's important to note that these numbers come from league baselines, and it's possible that team- and game-specific considerations are important. But even the best and worst NFL teams aren't much different in any one play or one drive. It's only when these differences between teams accumulate over the 130-plus plays in a game do the better teams usually come out on top. And on Sunday, the Texans and Redskins effectively played to a draw.

Kubiak made the wrong decision, and Shanahan made the right one. The fact that the Redskins came away with the loss does not prove Kubiak right.


Brian Burke is former Navy pilot who has given up his F/A-18 for the less dangerous hobby of football analysis. He is the creator of Advanced NFL Stats, a website about football, statistics, and and game theory.

By Brian Burke  | September 21, 2010; 2:17 PM ET
Categories:  Statistical analysis  
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Comments

I think the dude pictured at the top of this thread delivers my paper.

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 2:31 PM | Report abuse

Really, now we have someone who awants to use mathematical formulas to determine the best way of winning.

How bout just playing the game and enough with the Algebra III stuff.

You play better than the other team, more often than not you'll win. No need for math here.

Also, I can only hope certain posters haven't posted any animated cartoons of poo-flingers today. That was just disgusting.

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 2:38 PM | Report abuse

I think the dude pictured at the top of this thread delivers my paper.

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 2:31 PM

Which one? Brady, JReid or Burke?

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 2:38 PM | Report abuse

Dont tell NE that the concept of having a "clutch" kicker is vastly overrated.

I dont know Iceman maybe if this were some volleyball metrics i might agree but this seems more...meh.

Posted by: Stu27 | September 21, 2010 2:39 PM | Report abuse

beep-beep, let me get this straight. NFL players have wrapped towels around their waste for years and female reporters have NEVER once seen Mr. Happy ? NOT ONCE ? CP's comments are right in my opinion and the reporters are the morons stirring up trouble.

Posted by: hessone | September 21, 2010 2:27 PM

Here's one instance where a reporter did see your friend, Mr. Happy, and here are the consequences. This is why the NFL is coming down on the Jets and on Portis:

While interviewing players in the Patriots locker-room on a practice day, two Patriots had complained earlier to James Oldham, the team's director of media relations, and to Patrick Sullivan, the team's general manager, that they believed Olson was, in the players' words, "a looker," someone who stood around the locker room not interviewing anyone. General Manager Pat Sullivan observed Olson and determined that she was acting professionally, interviewing Maurice Hurst, but took no other action. Several of the players subsequently taunted her by walking naked in her presence, making vulgar comments and gestures. One player, Zeke Mowatt, "fondled his genitals" in front of her. Robert Perryman did the same while her back was turned. Others, including Michael Timpson, made jokes and egged each other on.

After Olson complained, describing the experience as a "mind rape", team owner Victor Kiam allegedly described her as a "classic bytch." (He later apologized in a newspaper ad, while denying using crude language.) Eventually, NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue ordered an investigation under the aegis of former Watergate scandal prosecutor Philip Heymann; the 60-page report concluded that Olson was "degraded and humiliated." Mowatt was fined $12,500, the other two players $5,000, and the team itself $50,000, since no management had intervened at the time or immediately following. Half the cost of the team's fine was to defray instructional materials the league could send to all teams and players, and Tagliabue wrote a letter to Kiam expressing his belief that the incident had "damaged" the league. Sullivan, a son of the previous team owner, was fired.

After the incident became public, Olson was subjected to harassment from fans of the Patriots. Her tires were slashed, she received hate mail and death threats, and her apartment was burglarized. The Herald's then owner, News Corporation, offered to transfer her to Sydney, Australia, where she worked for The Daily Telegraph and the Sydney Morning Herald. In 1991, Olson settled a lawsuit against the Patriots.

And, if you want to read why this is a serious problem, read a bit more about the history from the womens sports foundation:

http://www.womenssportsfoundation.org/Content/Articles/Issues/Media-and-Publicity/W/Women-Reporters-in-the-Mens-Locker-Room.aspx

Posted by: beep-beep | September 21, 2010 2:41 PM | Report abuse

I enjoyed the write up. Thanks Brian.

Posted by: TWISI | September 21, 2010 2:44 PM | Report abuse

I'm sure this guy already tabulated his Getting Laid Probability (GLP)...0.00+0.00=0.00.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 2:45 PM | Report abuse

Somewhat overlooked in this analysis is the possibility of a tie. The game was decided with about 5 minutes left in OT. Had Houston missed the FG, a tie would have been pretty likely.

And I don't buy, even for a moment, that all kickers are basically equal or that 'clutch' can't be determined. Getting statistical significance may be tough (usually need 15-20 data points, and how many guys have had 20 game winning kick opportunities?). But just because there isn't sufficient data for statistical significance, doesn't mean that the odds are equal.

Posted by: zcezcest1 | September 21, 2010 2:45 PM | Report abuse

Leave it to the Patriots of old to pull this stunt.

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse

I think the dude pictured at the top of this thread delivers my paper.

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 2:31 PM

Which one? Brady, JReid or Burke?

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 2:38 PM |

Funny. Should have seen that coming like a Jason Campbell pass.

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 2:47 PM | Report abuse

Really, now we have someone who awants to use mathematical formulas to determine the best way of winning.

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 2:38 PM | Report abuse


Yeah, they are called NFL coaches. In large part, this is what a quality control assistant does; he charts film and works derives situational probabilities with algorithms from statisticians. This is one of the big contributions to the game from Belichek and his family tree.

And before you scoff at such analysis, my models predict a 99% chance you will reply with a feces related comment....


Posted by: TheDirtySanchez | September 21, 2010 2:49 PM | Report abuse

The media is ruining football. F the mediA! Watching singletary have to field dumb questions after such a great hard fought loss was painful and nobody learned anything or got anything that would make aNy article any better.


Posted by: pabrian2003 | September 21, 2010 2:25 PM | Report abuse

Pabrainiac reminds me of my grumpy old great-aunt who has NOTHING nice to say about ANYTHING, she sits around all day and complains the mail comes too late, or the trash is on the second floor, or the cat eats her plants. I'll tell you what I tell her: "SHUT UP B*TCH!!! Quit complaining, at least you're alive!"

Posted by: monk811 | September 21, 2010 2:50 PM | Report abuse

Monk 811 - I didn't address u until u picked me out. And now u accuse me of picking fights. That's how your a hipocrit.

If you think we DIDNT get lucky vs Dallas you r the one who knows nothing about this game. No one makes that play call everyone knows that, Phillips admitted it, the announcers said no upside and it lost the game. That isn't lucky

We squandered a 17 point lead at home, if that isn't a horribl choke then there us no such thing as choking

I'm just stating facts, sorry I'm not buying Dannys Shan-a-hype, first half last week I was starting to come around thinking maybe we r better I was surprised and then we sh t the bed.

When they prove something I'm on the bandwagon

Posted by: pabrian2003 | September 21, 2010 2:50 PM | Report abuse

I'm sure this guy already tabulated his Getting Laid Probability (GLP)...0.00+0.00=0.00.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 2:45 PM |


Perfection! HAHAHAHAHA. Post of the day!

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 2:51 PM | Report abuse

Leave it to the Patriots of old to pull this stunt.

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 2:46 PM

And leave it to hessone to come up here and blame the victim: "CP's comments are right in my opinion and the reporters are the morons stirring up trouble." Sometimes NFL players stir up trouble, and on a Rex Ryan coached team it seems even more plausible.

Look, we don't know yet what happened and that's why there's an investigation. But this stuff can be serious and the League cannot take the position that "reporters are the morons stirring up trouble." And hessone would probably seem smarter to get the facts before blaming "the moron reporters."

Posted by: beep-beep | September 21, 2010 2:53 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, I'm sure that Vince Lombardi, Tom Landry, Joe Gibbs 1.0, Bear Bryant, etc. were all using their mathematical skills to come up with various formulas to determine just how to win. I'm sure they all also placed calls to Stephen Hawking to get his help.

Ugh............

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

And leave it to hessone to come up here and blame the victim: "CP's comments are right in my opinion and the reporters are the morons stirring up trouble." Sometimes NFL players stir up trouble, and on a Rex Ryan coached team it seems even more plausible.

Look, we don't know yet what happened and that's why there's an investigation. But this stuff can be serious and the League cannot take the position that "reporters are the morons stirring up trouble." And hessone would probably seem smarter to get the facts before blaming "the moron reporters."

Posted by: beep-beep | September 21, 2010 2:53 PM
----

Totally agree. I'm sure hessone is the one who blames the rape-victim using the "well with what she was wearing she was begging for it"-type of excuse.

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 2:56 PM | Report abuse

Truth isn't always nice monk811, you remind me of a grown woman who acts like a daddys little princess in fantasy land waitng for prince charming to sweep u off your feet and live happily ever after.

Posted by: pabrian2003 | September 21, 2010 2:57 PM | Report abuse

"A look at the decision making in Sunday's overtime"


Whenever the wrong odor comes out of my azz crack, I think, "Man, I shouldn't have eaten that stuffed burrito last night!"

And the thing is, I can't reclaim last night.

So rehashing the last game for woulda, coulda, shoulda is useless but for one singualr point:

Should Shanny have pooch punted after the Kubiak time out and put the Texans' offense in a deep hole?

Some tough D, we get the ball back with better field position.

The 20-30 yards gained from the 'flipped' field would've shorten a winning kick, IMO.

But we're rehashing what happened two night's ago.

And for me, it's all starting to stink all over again.

Posted by: MistaMoe | September 21, 2010 2:59 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, I'm sure that Vince Lombardi, Tom Landry, Joe Gibbs 1.0, Bear Bryant, etc. were all using their mathematical skills to come up with various formulas to determine just how to win. I'm sure they all also placed calls to Stephen Hawking to get his help.

Ugh............

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 2:54 PM |

Well Gibby was "Super Smart" and they probably did call Hawking to get a referral on a top-o-the-line motorized wheelchair that could be beefed up for one Albert Haynesworth.

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 2:59 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 2:54 PM

Coaches play percentages ALL the time. They have cheat sheets for punting vs. going for it, FG attempt likelihood, etc. etc for variables such as time and opponent throughout the game.

Posted by: Rypien11 | September 21, 2010 3:01 PM | Report abuse

pabrian- did you call me a "cool-aid junkie hater"?

Is that a double negative? What does that even mean?

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:02 PM | Report abuse


Everything in your post indicates that no reporters in the locker room after the game would be the common sense approach, hence, all of Olson's troubles and the players privacy would be taken care of. And, I'm not bad mouthing female reporters or Olson. Players Assn. might visit this issue during the next bargaining agreement. My vote, give the players a break after a big game, then meet after they dress.

Posted by: hessone | September 21, 2010 3:02 PM | Report abuse

I'm sure this guy already tabulated his Getting Laid Probability (GLP)...0.00+0.00=0.00.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 2:45 PM |


My GLP increases exponentially when I pull up to a strip club in my 'Rolls.

Sincerely,

Albert Haynesworth

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 3:02 PM | Report abuse

I'm sure this guy already tabulated his Getting Laid Probability (GLP)...0.00+0.00=0.00.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 2:45 PM |

Perfection! HAHAHAHAHA. Post of the day!

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 2:51 PM

Now I feel kinda bad about that one...I'm sorry Brian...you prob got lots of tail being a pilot and all.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

The math is wrong. If 55% is the chance of making the field goal then the (1-.55) is the chance of missing, in which case that factor needs to be multiplied by the probability of Houston scoring from the point where the field goal is kicked (the 41 yard line), not scoring from the 10 yard line.

If the probability of scoring from the 41 is, say, 70% (only 30 yards or so needed for a FG), then the math works out to a 68.5% probability of us winning.

Regardless of math, go for the win, especially now that we have a good kicker.

And btw, I get laid.

Posted by: NickelsLuvsSkins | September 21, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

Why don't we talk about the St. Louis game?

I'll start:

I think we come back strong after a tough loss, the coaches emphasizing getting back in the win column.

It will be a blowout by the Skins 34-13.

We will have a ton of confidence when the Skins go to Philly.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:06 PM | Report abuse

3rd and 7 from the 34. They throw deep down the sidelines to Moss. I say you run the ball. Even though the running game was not great, it had picked up in the 4th quarter against a tired defense. Even if you gain 2-3 yards, that changes the kick from 52 to say 49 or 48 yarder. If you gain 5 or 6 yards, then you have a shorter field goal, and also the possibility of just going for it on 4th and short. McNabb was tearing up the defense all day, so it made sense to go for it on 4th down to get a chip shot or drive in for a TD. Not a sermon, just a thought.

Posted by: goose33 | September 21, 2010 3:07 PM | Report abuse

We're gonna just destroy 'ol Sammy Bradford.

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

Luck isn't holding the unofficial SB champ Cowpies to just 7 points. Luck isn't racking up 426 passing yards in one game. I'm not trying to pick a fight with you, but trying to enlighten you. Maybe you should sit back and look at it from our shoes, pretty much EVERYTHING IS NEGATIVE that comes from your User ID, as well as misspelled! Maybe you can't take a joke, maybe try joking and being positive. Don't you find it a little odd that I'm not the only one arguing with you? So I guess WE are at fault and should cave in to your warped view of the state of the Redskins. Get a grip.

Posted by: monk811 | September 21, 2010 3:09 PM | Report abuse


Nouveau Doůche - A person with a little bit of money who thinks that their small bankroll gives them the right to discard manners and class. Literally, "the new doůche."

Posted by: RedDMV | September 21, 2010 3:09 PM | Report abuse

The math is wrong. If 55% is the chance of making the field goal then the (1-.55) is the chance of missing, in which case that factor needs to be multiplied by the probability of Houston scoring from the point where the field goal is kicked (the 41 yard line), not scoring from the 10 yard line.

If the probability of scoring from the 41 is, say, 70% (only 30 yards or so needed for a FG), then the math works out to a 68.5% probability of us winning.

Regardless of math, go for the win, especially now that we have a good kicker.

And btw, I get laid.

Posted by: NickelsLuvsSkins | September 21, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse
Are you Sheldon from 'The Big Bang Theory' ?

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:10 PM | Report abuse

I'm sure this guy already tabulated his Getting Laid Probability (GLP)...0.00+0.00=0.00.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 2:45 PM


Right. Because everyone knows fighter pilots have a notoriously difficult time with the ladies.

Posted by: freakzilla | September 21, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse

What are the Skins likely to receive as a compensatory pick for losing Jason Campbell? I'd be okay shipping the 1st round pick to the Chargers for V. Jackson if the Skins receive a 3rd round compensatory pick. Jackson in Shanny's offense would be incredible.

Posted by: coparker5 | September 21, 2010 3:14 PM | Report abuse

Regardless of math, go for the win, especially now that we have a good kicker.

And btw, I get laid.

Posted by: NickelsLuvsSkins | September 21, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse
Are you Sheldon from 'The Big Bang Theory' ?

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:10 PM |

He must be "The Continental".

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 3:14 PM | Report abuse

Right. Because everyone knows fighter pilots have a notoriously difficult time with the ladies.

Posted by: freakzilla | September 21, 2010 3:13 PM

I corrected myself since zilla...didn't have that factored in my initial calculation.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 3:16 PM | Report abuse

I'm sure this guy already tabulated his Getting Laid Probability (GLP)...0.00+0.00=0.00.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 2:45 PM


Right. Because everyone knows fighter pilots have a notoriously difficult time with the ladies.

Posted by: freakzilla | September 21, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse

I thought the GLP was hilarious.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:16 PM | Report abuse

Hey not every fighter pilot is as suave was Maverick, Iceman, Viper, and especially Goose.

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 3:19 PM | Report abuse

Nouveau Doůche - A person with a little bit of money who thinks that their small bankroll gives them the right to discard manners and class. Literally, "the new doůche."

Posted by: RedDMV | September 21, 2010 3:09 PM | Report abuse

What if you're poor and a d0uche, like me?

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:19 PM | Report abuse

"The math is wrong. If 55% is the chance of making the field goal then the (1-.55) is the chance of missing, in which case that factor needs to be multiplied by the probability of Houston scoring from the point where the field goal is kicked (the 41 yard line), not scoring from the 10 yard line.

If the probability of scoring from the 41 is, say, 70% (only 30 yards or so needed for a FG), then the math works out to a 68.5% probability of us winning.

Regardless of math, go for the win, especially now that we have a good kicker.

And btw, I get laid.

Posted by: NickelsLuvsSkins | September 21, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

Not to mention the percentage of winning through a punt at the 36 yard line is off as well. A team starting at the 10 yard line may only have a 35% chance of winning, but that percentage is only valid if the punt actually ends up at the 10 yard line (or better). You need to multiply 0.35 by the percentage of punts from that distance that land inside the 10.

Then, of course, you'd have to factor in the leftover percentage of punts that result in a touchback by the chance a particular team has of winning if they have a 1st & 10 at the 20 yard line.

At this point, your eyes actually start to bleed of boredom, and you realize why coaches use gut instinct in these situations.

Posted by: psps23 | September 21, 2010 3:20 PM | Report abuse

pabrian- did you call me a "cool-aid junkie hater"?

Is that a double negative? What does that even mean?

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:02 PM

He basically cosigned something I said earlier...I feel like I need a shower.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 3:21 PM | Report abuse

BOOK ME.


Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 2:02 PM

So Homo

Posted by: 4thFloor | September 21, 2010 3:21 PM | Report abuse

I'd be okay with throwing it to Fred Davis a little more. Maybe mix in a little Devin Thomas.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse

And, if you want to read why this is a serious problem, read a bit more about the history from the womens sports foundation:

http://www.womenssportsfoundation.org/Content/Articles/Issues/Media-and-Publicity/W/Women-Reporters-in-the-Mens-Locker-Room.aspx

Posted by: beep-beep | September 21, 2010 2:41 PM

Agree completely. Except for the part where you lump CP's goofy statements in with what happened in the Jets locker room. Also, hessone's defense of Portis is the only thing that makes Portis look bad.

Posted by: mack1 | September 21, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse

What if you're poor and a d0uche, like me?

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:19 PM

You've come to the right place. Welcome. You're in the Brotherhood of Poor D0uches! Make yourself at home. Do you happen to have $10 for the initiation fee?

Posted by: beep-beep | September 21, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse

Hey not every fighter pilot is as suave was Maverick, Iceman, Viper, and especially Goose.

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 3:19 PM | Report abuse

Not every poster is as suave as iH8dallas.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse

Interesting to consider but maybe Shanny really was thinking that our secondary was getting slaughtered and our defense was gassed.

I can't get over the fact that our offense kept us in a game though - and almost won it with offense alone.

Posted by: BrooklynSkins | September 21, 2010 3:26 PM | Report abuse

I'd be okay with throwing it to Fred Davis a little more. Maybe mix in a little Devin Thomas.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:22 PM |

Agreed. Don't sleep on Davis.

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

You've come to the right place. Welcome. You're in the Brotherhood of Poor D0uches! Make yourself at home. Do you happen to have $10 for the initiation fee?

Posted by: beep-beep | September 21, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse

Let me ask my girl for it, or I'll just go in her purse and get it when she goes to the bathroom.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse


beep-beep

Everything in your post indicates that no reporters in the locker room after the game would be the common sense approach, hence, all of Olson's troubles and the players privacy would be taken care of. And, I'm not bad mouthing female reporters or Olson. Listening to your comment on players behavior, you excluded the reporters behavior.

Players Assn. might visit this issue during the next bargaining agreement. My vote, give the players a break after a big game, then meet after they dress.

Posted by: hessone | September 21, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

Do you happen to have $10 for the initiation fee?

Posted by: beep-beep | September 21, 2010 3:24 PM |

I gave my $10 to Hessone...did he get it to you?

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 3:28 PM | Report abuse

What if you're poor and a d0uche, like me?

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:19 PM

Do you live in a trailer that is parked wih in 'park'?

Posted by: 4thFloor | September 21, 2010 3:28 PM | Report abuse

Except for the part where you lump CP's goofy statements in with what happened in the Jets locker room.

Posted by: mack1 | September 21, 2010 3:24 PM

Portis's statements were not "goofy." This is how the League characterized them: “The comments are clearly inappropriate, offensive and and have no place in the NFL,” NFL spokesman Greg Aiello told media outlets.

Posted by: beep-beep | September 21, 2010 3:31 PM | Report abuse

Agree completely. Except for the part where you lump CP's goofy statements in with what happened in the Jets locker room. Also, hessone's defense of Portis is the only thing that makes Portis look bad.

Posted by: mack1 | September 21, 2010 3:24 PM
================

Cosign, tangent, perpendicular, acute angles, angle bisector, etc.

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 3:31 PM | Report abuse

"Portis's statements were not "goofy.""

I think "ignorant" is a much more appropriate term there.

Posted by: psps23 | September 21, 2010 3:35 PM | Report abuse

Do you live in a trailer that is parked wih in 'park'?

Posted by: 4thFloor | September 21, 2010 3:28 PM | Report abuse

It's a double-wide. But it's not in a trailer park.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:37 PM | Report abuse

Listening to your comment on players behavior, you excluded the reporters behavior.

Players Assn. might visit this issue during the next bargaining agreement. My vote, give the players a break after a big game, then meet after they dress.

Posted by: hessone | September 21, 2010 3:27 PM

Why would the players association "visit" this? This has been settled for nearly 20 years. It's not an "issue." Aside from an occasional incident like this (which may not be an incident at all), the system is working.

What are you referring to with "reporters' behavior"? Are you claiming that the reporters are the cause of these incidents?

Posted by: beep-beep | September 21, 2010 3:38 PM | Report abuse

What are we talking about this locker room reporter crap again? That was so week and a half ago.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 3:42 PM | Report abuse

Portis's statements were not "goofy.""

I think "ignorant" is a much more appropriate term there.

Posted by: psps23 | September 21, 2010 3:35 PM | Report abuse

I think "true" is a much more appropriate term.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse


And btw, I get laid.

Posted by: NickelsLuvsSkins | September 21, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

Who's the lucky guy?

Posted by: TheDirtySanchez | September 21, 2010 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Hank Baskett, anyone?

Would make visiting the team hotel a lot more interesting...

Posted by: Rypien11 | September 21, 2010 3:48 PM | Report abuse

re-post anything I've said that you have a problem with, not sure how my opinion is so far off base.

mcNabb missed galloway (who didn't need pre-season)

we squandered a 17 point lead

D Hall's TD was pure luck simply by Dallas making that play call

how are these off base?

Posted by: pabrian2003 | September 21, 2010 3:48 PM | Report abuse

Reggie Bush has a broken leg, and Kevin Faulk of the Pats has a torn ACL....time to get trading there Bruce Allen...send MMason to the Saints for Carl Nicks, and send Keith Griffin to the Pats for VWilfork...

Posted by: BeantownGreg1 | September 21, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

"I think "true" is a much more appropriate term.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse"

Yea, it's about as "true" as saying your wife's OBGYN is getting aroused every time he gives her a check-up.

Posted by: psps23 | September 21, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Hey not every fighter pilot is as suave was Maverick, Iceman, Viper, and especially Goose.

Posted by: Poopy_McPoop | September 21, 2010 3:19 PM | Report abuse

Not every poster is as suave as iH8dallas.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:24 PM |

What if you're a fighter pilot AND an NFL player (not simultaneously of course) like Chad Hennings.

I think even "Big Blue" would crash trying to calculate that GLP and instead would come up with a non-numerical statistic relative to his ability to get laid....

"money".

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

"My vote, give the players a break after a big game, then meet after they dress."

Malcolm Kelly: How does my dress look?

Fred Davis: It looks great.

Malcolm Kelly: It should.

I pulled my hamstring putting it on.

Posted by: MistaMoe | September 21, 2010 3:51 PM | Report abuse

"I think "true" is a much more appropriate term.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse"

Yea, it's about as "true" as saying your wife's OBGYN is getting aroused every time he gives her a check-up.

Posted by: psps23 | September 21, 2010 3:50 PM

I'd have to see IH's wife before making that call

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 3:54 PM | Report abuse

It's a double-wide. But it's not in a trailer park.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:37 PM

And do you own one of the following:

A Cooley/Matt Bowen/Ramsey/Doughty/Derek Smith jersey?

Posted by: 4thFloor | September 21, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse

I think even "Big Blue" would crash trying to calculate that GLP and instead would come up with a non-numerical statistic relative to his ability to get laid....

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 3:50 PM

If I coined a new RI acronym...I at least want some of those credits or points everyone talks about.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 3:57 PM | Report abuse

Luck isn't holding the unofficial SB champ Cowpies to just 7 points. Luck isn't racking up 426 passing yards in one game. I'm not trying to pick a fight with you, but trying to enlighten you. Maybe you should sit back and look at it from our shoes, pretty much EVERYTHING IS NEGATIVE that comes from your User ID, as well as misspelled! Maybe you can't take a joke, maybe try joking and being positive. Don't you find it a little odd that I'm not the only one arguing with you? So I guess WE are at fault and should cave in to your warped view of the state of the Redskins. Get a grip.

Posted by: monk811

thinking the Cowboys are unofficial SB champs is the thought of a sheep.

the dallas game was lucky, the texans game was the horrible choke, for the third time.

here's a joke: we replaced our coaches, our qb, and our defensive scheme, and our O line still is a huge ?.

at this time last year we were 1-1, had NY Giants missed a FG and given us a lucky gift TD 16-7 them could've easily been 14-13 us with Old Soup, no D Hall, and No Trent.

you want us to be better so bad that your in denial.

have we proven anything? we have the same record as last year at this time

Posted by: pabrian2003 | September 21, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

Except for the part where you lump CP's goofy statements in with what happened in the Jets locker room.

Posted by: mack1 | September 21, 2010 3:24 PM

Portis's statements were not "goofy." This is how the League characterized them: “The comments are clearly inappropriate, offensive and and have no place in the NFL,” NFL spokesman Greg Aiello told media outlets.

Posted by: beep-beep | September 21, 2010 3:31 PM

My whole point was that the NFL characterized his comments wrongly. Now our little discussion has gone full circle and we're back where we started. What a strange yet uninteresting journey it has been.

Hessone, the media doesn't just bum rush the locker room after the game. Players are given time to shower and all that. Get a few facts on your side before you try to make a point.

Posted by: mack1 | September 21, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

JReid's head probably exploded after reading this post...

Posted by: mattylight | September 21, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

And do you own one of the following:

A Cooley/Matt Bowen/Ramsey/Doughty/Derek Smith jersey?

Posted by: 4thFloor | September 21, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse
All my jersey's are black players

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:59 PM | Report abuse

Let's all apply statistics to our daily lives shall we?

70% of the time I go to the grocery store to buy eggs.

20% of the time I go to the grocery store to buy bread.

10% of the time I go to the grocery store to buy something else.

What am I likely to buy on Monday? Answer: bread, because that is when they lower the price of bread and I can get it for a discount.

How would you predict that? The answer is you wouldn't, because you didn't have all of the facts. The guy who wrote this stupid article is trying to lie to you with statistics. The media, the politicians, and now, apparently, the sportswriters do this to us all of the time. How do you think wind speed affects the coaches' decision? What if the kicker said before the game, "Coach, my hammy is kind of tight and I don't think I can give you my A game?" What if they just changed footballs before the kick?

Here's the thing. There is such a thing as noise in statistics. This is all of the stuff that is not included in the data you analyze but could potentially affect the outcome. Noise makes your analysis worthless. On top of that, with every statistical analysis there is a margin of error based on the distribution of the data and sample size. The author disqualifies his data right at the onset by saying the sample size is too small for kicking beyond forty yards.

In other words, this article was a nice waste of time.

Posted by: RedSkinHead | September 21, 2010 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Yea, it's about as "true" as saying your wife's OBGYN is getting aroused every time he gives her a check-up.

Posted by: psps23

How do you know that if they do or don't? If they did, do you think they'd come out and say so?


Willing to bet about 70% of gynecologist have looked at a woman walk in, checked out her face and body and thought 'I can't believe I'm about to look at his woman's "vertical smile".'

Even if they snapped out of it and remembered that they are professionals, thing is that they still thought something along those lines. However brief it was.

Posted by: RedDMV | September 21, 2010 4:01 PM | Report abuse

you want us to be better so bad that your in denial.

have we proven anything? we have the same record as last year at this time

Posted by: pabrian2003 | September 21, 2010 3:58 PM |

Calling you a retard is an insult to Cowboy fans.

So guess what....you're retarded.

You apply context and then compare things in a vacuum when it's convenient for you. I honestly think I was smarter than you when I was 2 seconds old.

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended | September 21, 2010 4:03 PM | Report abuse

Well....yuo def ain't a Redneck...

But...you might be a Wigga...

Posted by: 4thFloor | September 21, 2010 4:03 PM | Report abuse

Willing to bet about 70% of gynecologist have looked at a woman walk in, checked out her face and body and thought 'I can't believe I'm about to look at his woman's "vertical smile".'

Even if they snapped out of it and remembered that they are professionals, thing is that they still thought something along those lines. However brief it was.

Posted by: RedDMV | September 21, 2010 4:01 PM |

Probably recommended a breast exam as well.

Posted by: scampbell1975 | September 21, 2010 4:05 PM | Report abuse

"I think "true" is a much more appropriate term.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse"

Yea, it's about as "true" as saying your wife's OBGYN is getting aroused every time he gives her a check-up.

Posted by: psps23 | September 21, 2010 3:50 PM

I'd have to see IH's wife before making that call

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 3:54 PM | Report abuse

I've always wondered, if you are a male going to medical school; why do you choose the specialty of looking at snatches all day? I mean of all the options available, you say "You know, I think I'll examine boxes from 9-5 Monday thru Friday".

Is it because you want to look at them all day?

IDK...it's something I've pondered.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 4:05 PM | Report abuse

What am I likely to buy on Monday? Answer: bread, because that is when they lower the price of bread and I can get it for a discount.

Posted by: RedSkinHead | September 21, 2010 4:00 PM

I actually learned something on here today hmmmmmmm

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 4:07 PM | Report abuse

pabrian: I don't see how you can't at least be encouraged?... we have already improved from last year with McNabb and Shanahan instead of Jc and Zorn. Why are you criticizing everything?!

"we have the same record as last year at this time"

If you think this year is still last year then that's pretty sad.

Posted by: rachel216 | September 21, 2010 4:07 PM | Report abuse

Headline in The Dallas Morning News:

Gay Community Sues Cowboys Over 'Star Pride'


Jerrah Jones: To us, 'star pride' means that fans should love the cowboys.

Gay leaders: To us, 'star pride' means your team chokes more than we do on date night.

The difference is that we don't choose to swallow the pride like the Cowboys do.

Posted by: MistaMoe | September 21, 2010 4:09 PM | Report abuse


NFL spokesman Greg Aiello told media outlets.

Posted by: beep-beep | September 21, 2010 3:31 PM |

Whoa !


Posted by: hessone | September 21, 2010 4:10 PM | Report abuse


What if you're poor and a d0uche, like me?

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 3:19 PM

Do you live in a trailer that is parked wih in 'park'?

Posted by: 4thFloor


Backwoods doůche? Disenfranchised doůche?

Posted by: RedDMV | September 21, 2010 4:10 PM | Report abuse

Well....yuo def ain't a Redneck...

But...you might be a Wigga...

Posted by: 4thFloor | September 21, 2010 4:03 PM | Report abuse

I kind of went through the wigga phase in high school for a few months. Never been a redneck though.

Besides aren't wiggas an endangered species? Don't see them around that much anymore.

But when I graduate college in May and find a decent job, I'll upgrade to a townhome.

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 4:11 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 4:05 PM

Boxes...hahaha

Idk IH...I wonder if they take a test early on to figure out which way to go...I think if mine turned out to be a butt doctor...I would have to drop out.

Posted by: PlayAction | September 21, 2010 4:13 PM | Report abuse

beeps

Posted by: frediefritz | September 21, 2010 4:13 PM | Report abuse

Here's the thing. There is such a thing as noise in statistics. This is all of the stuff that is not included in the data you analyze but could potentially affect the outcome. Noise makes your analysis worthless. On top of that, with every statistical analysis there is a margin of error based on the distribution of the data and sample size. The author disqualifies his data right at the onset by saying the sample size is too small for kicking beyond forty yards.

In other words, this article was a nice waste of time.

Posted by: RedSkinHead

Not true. It does help to know what the averages indicate. There have been plenty of 52 yard FG attempts to know what the odds are.

If you think its better to go for a FG, you can then look at other factors that might move you in one direction or another (windy, bad field conditions, kicker with a tight hammy, etc).

Knowing whether the base odds are with you or against you -- and by how much -- is very good starting point for a decision. But it isn't the ONLY factor to consider.

Posted by: zcezcest1 | September 21, 2010 4:13 PM | Report abuse

pabrian: I don't see how you can't at least be encouraged?... we have already improved from last year with McNabb and Shanahan instead of Jc and Zorn. Why are you criticizing everything?!

"we have the same record as last year at this time"

If you think this year is still last year then that's pretty sad.

Posted by: rachel216

because we are the off sesaon champs every year, the trhtu is sad more often than not. is wasn't Zorn or Campbell's fault that we were bad. why be encouraged to be let down again. that'd fit the definition of crazy.

I know it's a new year, but we haven't proven that we are better. That is a fact! Look at the Haynesworth debacle, how is it different from bruce smith, deionn sanders, jason taylor?

I'm not buying the hype I've crossed over like many many skins fans in the last few years.

Not goin to just say we're better blindly without proof, is that so wrong?

Posted by: pabrian2003 | September 21, 2010 4:16 PM | Report abuse


Hessone, the media doesn't just bum rush the locker room after the game. Players are given time to shower and all that. Get a few facts on your side before you try to make a point.

Posted by: mack1 | September 21, 2010 3:58 PM |

If that's the case mack, why is the media making such a big deal of this and why are we having this dumb ass conversation to begin with ?

E=MC2

Posted by: hessone | September 21, 2010 4:18 PM | Report abuse

Besides aren't wiggas an endangered species? Don't see them around that much anymore...


Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 4:11 PM | Report abuse


They're still out there, they're just called dooshbags now.

Posted by: Original_etrod | September 21, 2010 4:19 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: No_Punt_Intended

so we are automatically better without proving it, then why do they play the games?

I'm retarded? If I'm up here saying we're going 10-6 (150% better) then I'm what, a genius?

You thought our performance in the 2nd half of the Texans game was good? We snatched defeat from the jaws of victory again, how does it make us better, we've been doing that for a decade.

When Gibbs was here we were decent.

5-11 would be technically better when we win our 5th game I'll admit we are better

Posted by: pabrian2003 | September 21, 2010 4:21 PM | Report abuse

I think the politically correct term nowadays is, 'Cool @$$ White Boy'....

Posted by: 4thFloor | September 21, 2010 4:22 PM | Report abuse

"Willing to bet about 70% of gynecologist have looked at a woman walk in, checked out her face and body and thought 'I can't believe I'm about to look at his woman's "vertical smile".'

Even if they snapped out of it and remembered that they are professionals, thing is that they still thought something along those lines. However brief it was.

Posted by: RedDMV"

Maybe, maybe not.

I'd probably say you're closer to being right than wrong, but even so, that still leaves 30% of gynecologists that wouldn't/haven't done that.

Which again speaks to the point of ignorance about Portis' comments in an analogous sense. I have no doubt many, even a majority, of female reporters find some of the players attractive -- but there are certainly those that do not.

Suzy Kolber is one I can think of off the top of my head. That's an easy one; she's a lesbian. Doubtless, there are more lesbian reporters currently active. Even among straight women, it's presumptuous to a point of ignorance to claim that they'll all "want" at least one of the athletes in that locker room -- even if many female reporters would.

Posted by: psps23 | September 21, 2010 4:22 PM | Report abuse

In these hypothetical situations, OBGYN, reporter in a lockerroom etc... If the thought doesn't even cross your mind for a nanosecond, you simply aren't human.

Question for everyone: Do you work with any women you find at all attractive?

If so, has the thought of sex ever crossed your mind, even if you stay completely professional?

Posted by: iH8dallas | September 21, 2010 4:37 PM | Report abuse

Brady actually installed my Comcast...true story.

Posted by: WaPoLiveFan16 | September 21, 2010 5:31 PM | Report abuse

There's a major problem with this analysis ... it doesn't take into consideration the abilities of the kickers. How would the probabilities change if one team had the best kicker (especially of long field goals) in the history of the NFL, whyle the other had the worst?

Posted by: Rational_Man | September 21, 2010 5:49 PM | Report abuse

Brian lands on aircraft carriers at night in storms. Brian is probably a better athlete and has quicker reaction times than 99.99% of the players in the NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB. and better reaction times than all but a few elite F1 drivers.

Most NFL players can't sniff Brian's jock.

Think about this Brian's plane was low bid, all the avionics were low bid, the training and tools his air crew used to fix and maintain his plane was low bid. The carrier was low bid. The food he ate was low bid.

Thanks for your service and sacrifice hoss.

Chicks dig fighter pilots almost as much as they do operators.

Posted by: sheepherder | September 21, 2010 6:22 PM | Report abuse

IT was those 3rd down calls that hurt real bad...

Posted by: LongTimeSkinsFan | September 21, 2010 6:24 PM | Report abuse

Huh?

Posted by: rmblocher | September 21, 2010 7:10 PM | Report abuse

this artical reminds me of the guy that gets pocket A.s in hold em then loses and crys he should have won he had better cards

Posted by: thomasuras | September 21, 2010 9:44 PM | Report abuse

this artical reminds me of the guy that gets pocket A.s in hold em then loses and crys he should have won he had better cards

Posted by: thomasuras | September 21, 2010 9:44 PM | Report abuse

this artical reminds me of the guy that gets pocket A.s in hold em then loses and crys he should have won he had better cards

Posted by: thomasuras | September 21, 2010 9:44 PM | Report abuse

this artical reminds me of the guy that gets pocket A.s in hold em then loses and crys he should have won he had better cards

Posted by: thomasuras | September 21, 2010 9:44 PM | Report abuse

this artical reminds me of the guy that gets pocket A.s in hold em then loses and crys he should have won he had better cards

Posted by: thomasuras | September 21, 2010 9:44 PM | Report abuse

this artical reminds me of the guy that gets pocket A.s in hold em then loses and crys he should have won he had better cards

Posted by: thomasuras | September 21, 2010 9:44 PM | Report abuse

Just to prove life isn't fair (statistically or otherwise) I have personal knowledge that this dude's wife is smokin hot. Even if his GLP (Getting Laid Probability) is low, he's in good shape, trust me.

Posted by: OntheWarpath | September 22, 2010 12:56 PM | Report abuse

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