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Tryon Learns from Springs, Rogers and Smoot

From Jason Reid:

Rookie cornerback Justin Tryon, a fourth-round pick from Arizona State, made the team out of training camp despite struggling in coverage during preseason. Tryon has been active in five of Washington's seven games but is at the bottom of the depth chart at his position.

Tryon has tried to make good use of his time, he said, closely studying veteran cornerbacks Shawn Springs, Carlos Rogers and Fred Smoot and has learned a lot.

"Shawn and Fred are showing me just to play confident and be smooth," he said. "They're great vets and they're great guys to be around. I see Carlos stepping in front of passes and doing the right things every day. He's doing his thing out there.

"Him, Smoot, Springs, I'm just trying to learn as much as I can from these guys. I go out there to watch what they do, so that can help me. When you're a young guy in this league, you want to pick up as much as you can from great vets like those guys."

By Cindy Boren  |  October 21, 2008; 6:30 PM ET
 
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Comments

Love how Rogers has turned the corner and is now a wily veteran... go ahead, Carlos, go ahead!

Posted by: NateinthePDX | October 21, 2008 6:41 PM | Report abuse

FIRST

Posted by: Skins28 | October 21, 2008 6:42 PM | Report abuse

Big jump from "this is my job to lose"!

Posted by: Curzon417 | October 21, 2008 6:42 PM | Report abuse

ZEKE'S UNIQUE PERSPECTIVES brought to you by Yahoo!

A bit long this one. In the game vs Cleveland, Zorn had to make a call on the opening drive with 4th and 4 at the Browns 35. He punted.

Now I have my own objective way of analyzing this situation. At the heart of this is that I assign yards to points. 15 yards =1 point. A turnover is considered 50 yards and therefore is -3.3 points.

Doing this, I can assign values to each of the possibilities

If the Skins punt, they are, in effect, turning the ball over. What would I expect from a punt? On average, to give the other team possession at the 12 yard line. Net punt yards: 23. Take away 50 yards for giving up possession (it is essentially a turnover). Net is -27 yards. At 15 yards per point, that is -1.8 points.

If the Skins try a 53 yard FG, there are two possible outcomes. They make it or miss it. If they miss it, the result is -50 yards for the turnover and -8 yards on play (since Cleveland gets the ball at the 43 vs the 35). -58 yards is -3.9 points.

If the FG is made, you get 3 points. Then you need to kickoff and Cleveland gets the ball, say at the 30. In that case, its -50 yards for Cleveland getting the ball and +5 yards for the ball going from the 35 yard to the 30 yard line. So that play is -45 yards, or 3 points. The net of making the FG is 0 points.

Then there is the possibility of going for the first down. If you miss (say an incomplete pass), its a turnover and that is -50 yards or -3.3 points. If you make the first down (average gain of 7 yards), that is .5 points.

So the math comes down to this. What are the odds of making a 53 yd FG and what are the odds of gaining 4 or more yards. I'll assume for the moment that both are 50-50 propositions.

The FG gets you a -3.9 and 0, for an average of -1.9
The first down try gets you -3.3 points and +.5 points for an average of -1.4
The punt gets you -1.8

Lets look at the actual % play on going for it. The Skins made 4 or more yards on 57% of their plays. So properly weighting the odds, I get -1.1 points.

So the expected outcomes:
FG try: -1.9
Punt: -1.8
1st down try: -1.1

In this analysis, going for it is the correct call and its not really a close call. Its made even more correct by looking at one additional factor. Penalties. A penalty against the Skins would move them back and they would punt. But the actual field position given to the Browns would not likely be any different. But if the Browns were called for a penalty, the Skins get the first down.

The point isn't to critique Zorn's decision. Its to demonstrate an objective system can be applied to complex decision making. Obviously there isn't time to run this analysis on the sideline between plays, but its pretty easy to create a 'what to do chart' based on these situations.

And that is ZEKE'S UNIQUE PERSPECTIVES brought to you by Yahoo!

Posted by: zcezcest1 | October 21, 2008 7:01 PM | Report abuse

Interesting perspective Zeke. Knowing that Chris Meidt is a statistician, I wonder what he was thinking of this and if he also has some type of chart for these situations.

Without the values you present to guide me I would have gone for it based on field position and new punter on the team. I think Zorn said he took JC's groin pull into the equation.

Keep them perspectives coming.

Posted by: Curzon417 | October 21, 2008 7:22 PM | Report abuse

Don't agree with the whole Portis thing. He's the starting running back. You spell him when you can. You play the best players who are healthy. The bye week is coming up in two weeks.

Also...didn't he get 16 million guarunteed? Run, Portis, Run

Posted by: rickyroge | October 21, 2008 7:49 PM | Report abuse

If the FG is made, you get 3 points. Then you need to kickoff and Cleveland gets the ball, say at the 30. In that case, its -50 yards for Cleveland getting the ball and +5 yards for the ball going from the 35 yard to the 30 yard line. So that play is -45 yards, or 3 points. The net of making the FG is 0 points.

Posted by: zcezcest1 | October 21, 2008 7:01 PM
=========================================
That is Unique, Zeke.

Spread the word, folks. Tthere's no point going for field goals, because if you make it, the net is 0 points.
~

Posted by: ifthethunderdontgetya | October 21, 2008 7:50 PM | Report abuse

zeke, does yahoo know you're infringing on their trademark?

Posted by: dealer1 | October 21, 2008 7:57 PM | Report abuse

I think Yahoo has bigger problesm... the yjsut laid off 1500 employees.

Posted by: SkinsfaninKaneohe | October 21, 2008 8:04 PM | Report abuse

I was asking the first 2 sincerely, the third question was an attempt at humour. I think hey have a striking resembekance - La Canfora and Danny.

As far as the other points, I'll agree to disagree but coaching is so different these days. Players say stuff that they would have never said 40 years ago. If they had they wouldn't have a job. How TO has a job is beyond me.

As far as everyone heaping praise on Zorn, he is a rookie coach who has made a good start and that is it. After the Giants game, he has worked the team forward. But the team is woeful on offense. The only really good team they have played so far is the Giants.

Look - I'm a die hard Redskins fan, but I am also a realist. Every time we win (even if it is against a bad team like Cleveland) - everyone is ready to start up the Kornheiser Bus.

Let's face it - they are really a one trick pony right now on offense with Clinton Portis running the ball. The passing game is lame, special teams, especilly punting and punt team coverage is weak. Suisham struggles on the depth of his kickoffs and missed a very makeable FG just last game.

The fact that our defense is good wins maybe 10 games. In today's game you need offense and plenty of it. Our defense has saved our butts this year. Gotta call a spade a spade.

Posted by: captjim | October 21, 2008 8:08 PM | Report abuse

FIRST!

This is my FIRST post today.


NFL Network saying Pats' Rodney Harrison out for season with torn quad. Ouch. I tore mine a few years ago. Worst pain I've ever felt.

Posted by: freakzilla | October 21, 2008 8:13 PM | Report abuse

Woohoo!

My brother and his wife just brought a little Bonnie Koster into the world!

I'm now Uncle Kost!

Posted by: kost52 | October 21, 2008 8:26 PM | Report abuse

+++The FG gets you a -3.9 and 0, for an average of -1.9
The first down try gets you -3.3 points and +.5 points for an average of -1.4
The punt gets you -1.8

Lets look at the actual % play on going for it. The Skins made 4 or more yards on 57% of their plays. So properly weighting the odds, I get -1.1 points.

So the expected outcomes:
FG try: -1.9
Punt: -1.8
1st down try: -1.1++++

With all due respect--this is satire, right?

Posted by: TheCork | October 21, 2008 8:26 PM | Report abuse

Congrats, Unkle Kost!
~

Posted by: ifthethunderdontgetya | October 21, 2008 8:30 PM | Report abuse

Zeke--

I forgot to add--we kid because we love....

But seriously, what ever happened to gut instinct? Ball gets downed on the one, and it could be game over.

Also, how do you quantify building the confidence of your new punter?

There's another X factor. What was Zorn thinking about Campbell's injury?

He knows Crennell knows that Campbell is hurt. Zorn thinks that crennell thinks that because Campbell is hurt there is no real threat of a roll out or a pass, so Crennell can crowd the line and just play the run.

The "new holder" factor downplays the field goal aspect...so I don't think it's really a math problem here. I think it's a very smart coach going with his gut instinct.


Posted by: TheCork | October 21, 2008 8:34 PM | Report abuse

captjim,
You sir are a pessimist and a curmudgeon. Nothing wrong with that, just calling a spade a spade.

I disagree with the Redskins offense being woeful. The 49ers are woeful. The seahawks are woeful with all their WR injuries. Denver looked pretty woeful last night. Raiders? WOEFUL.

Redskins are not woeful. Nobody is crowning them champs of anything yet. But they are what they are... a quality group of guys who are well coached and always prepared to compete. They have a beter than even chance to win on any given Sunday. If the yplay well, they win. If the ymake mistakes, they don't. Seems thier destiny is for the most part in their own hands. Can you say that for the Lions for example? Lions need their opponent to play poorly to win. We are fortunate as fans to have a team of this caliber and quality.

Posted by: SkinsfaninKaneohe | October 21, 2008 8:34 PM | Report abuse

Redskins clumn at NFLDraftdog.com

Redskins Win Is Nice…but There's More Good News!

Pinch me, I'm dreaming. It's not just the Redskins unexpected 5-2 record. It's not just key road wins versus powerful opponents. It's not just Clinton Portis leading the league in rushing. It's not just the Hypersonic learning Curve that is Jim Zorn. It's not just the surprise return to health of Carlos Rogers, Rocky McIntosh, Randy Thomas, and Jon Jansen—all playing much better than expected at this point. It's not just Greg Blache out-doing Gregg Williams or Chris Horton or any other Redskin positives.

It's something more crucial to a Redskin fan's full enjoyment. It's the cherry on the Sundae, the smile on the blond in the corner, Jerry Lundegaard* knocking $100 off the Trucoat on that new Ciera. What is it? Oh I think you know…

Continued at:

http://www.nfldraftdog.com/NFL%20Team%20Columns/washington_redskins_nfl_team_col.htm


Posted by: TheCork | October 21, 2008 8:40 PM | Report abuse

Z - first quarter yards should not be worth the same as fourth quarter points. Come up with a scale that makes first quarter yards and points worth enough less that it makes punting make sense, and then I'll agree with you.

Posted by: daggar | October 21, 2008 8:41 PM | Report abuse

I have a passing concern that Zorn goes to the "draw" well fairly often on these critical play calls. It worked against the Eagles. Before the last 3-5 play aginst teh Borwons when a first down would have iced the game, I knew he would go to the draw. I was hoping for a screen. Turns out the draw would have worked if they had run it to the other side... as they got a safety blitz into the draw gap and the play blew up.

Posted by: SkinsfaninKaneohe | October 21, 2008 8:43 PM | Report abuse

I may be a curmudgeon, but I'm no pessimist - just a realist.

Here's the logic:

Our passing game is ranked a WOEFUL 19th in the League. This is despite the fact that we have one of the best receivers in the League - Santana Moss as our number 1 WR and a very credible backup #2 - Randle El. Then we have the best tight end in the League - Cooley. We have a great running back corps led by Portis catching out of the backfield.

So, what do we have left to analyze - a coach who is supposed to be a master of the West Coast scoring offense - (we are woeful in points scored as well) and a quarterback who is touted as this great talent who somehow has never developed.

Put it this way - our punter was 18th in the League and got fired. Our passer is 19th and he's not even criticized?

Add this to the fact that we haven't really played but 1 (maybe 2 if you count the Eagles) good teams and what we have gentlemen is true analysis and not some homer saliva dripping.

Again, I'm a Skins fan - but if you're gonna step back and look at this team, you've gotta look at the coach first and then the quarterback.

Posted by: captjim | October 21, 2008 8:46 PM | Report abuse

Zcezest1 -

I reckon you've short armed your stats a bit-

- Not sure if it's correct to use 57% of plays which achieved 4 or more yards. Most of those would've been in 1st and 10 situations. Probably need to be a bit more specific, and use our success rate at 3rd and 4.

- If you're going to be weighing up the positive vs negative for all those situations, you probably also have to factor in the rate of Blocked FG/Punt returned for a TD, or the rate of a fumble/Int returned for a TD.

I'm not bored enough (yet) to do those equations myself, but I reckon if I did, I'd find that punting was the correct decision.

Posted by: kost52 | October 21, 2008 8:50 PM | Report abuse

WOW. All i can do is agree to disagree on your analysis. I don't think its realistic.

Ever consider that the Redskins are 19th in passing because they don't need to throw the ball 40 times a game to win? And that Campbell is doing everything he has been asked and coached to do including often hitting his 3rd and 4th reads on a particular play? Realistically, Redskins need to become more consistent on offense by minimizing drive killing mistakes (ie holding, etc) and turning more long drives into touchdowns. I have said this myself. But your pessimism is over the top. Or under the bottom, LOL. For me, i see a quality team sitting at 5-2 that can obiviously improve on what they are doing. The team including coaches and players recognizes their shortcomings, and are seemingly striving to improve week by week. That my friend and fellow fan does not suck.

Posted by: SkinsfaninKaneohe | October 21, 2008 8:57 PM | Report abuse

Browns have suspended Kellen Winslow Jr for one game, without pay, for making disparaging remarks about the team. Man this is ugly:

CLEVELAND -- Tight end Kellen Winslow has been suspended for one game without pay by the Cleveland Browns for critical comments he made following Sunday's loss at Washington.

Winslow, who spent three days at the Cleveland Clinic earlier this month with an undisclosed illness, revealed he had a staph infection. He also complained that the team, which has had at least six cases of staph in the past three years, asked him to hide his illness.

Winslow criticized general manager Phil Savage for not checking on him while he was in the hospital, said he felt like he was being treated like a "piece of meat," and revealed he considered requesting a trade.

In a lengthy statement released Tuesday, Savage called Winslow's comments and behavior "unwarranted, inappropriate, and unnecessarily disparaging to our organization.

"His statements brought unjustified negative attention to our organization, and violated the team-first concept of our football squad," Savage said.

Posted by: talent_evaluator | October 21, 2008 8:57 PM | Report abuse

my 1 cent...is that they should've atleast lined up as if they were going to go for it...since it was under 5 yards to go and penalty gives them a first down by drawing them offsides...and as it turned out the punter could've used the extra five yard cushion...danny smith should've taken a 5 yard penalty in that situation if they couldn't draw them off sides...

Posted by: dealer1 | October 21, 2008 8:58 PM | Report abuse

Congrats to Kost. Why don't you go out and lift a few beers tonight in honor of your nephew? In fact, how about buying one for me?

Posted by: talent_evaluator | October 21, 2008 8:59 PM | Report abuse

i mean didn't the savage know what he was getting when he drafted this dude...from the U...he was a basket case when he was in the U...he was having his own ryan leaf moments with reporters even before entering the nfl...

Posted by: dealer1 | October 21, 2008 9:01 PM | Report abuse

Honestly, on a score of 1 - 10 (with 1 being worst and 10 being highest) rate Campbell, Portis, & Zorn

I'll start

Portis 10+ (he's unconious right now)
Campbell 6 (would be a 5 but he has avoided fumbles and interceptions like last year)
Zorn 5 (Giants game was bad but it was his 1st - and show me some vertical passing game please)

Posted by: captjim | October 21, 2008 9:05 PM | Report abuse

So let me get this straight captjim, you are saying that the Skins, with a rookie coach, new offensive passing system and a second year starter at QB are ahead of 14 teams this early in the season? WOW, not bad at this point. And as they continue to mature in this system, both coach and team, looks bright for the Skins.

Where I am not straight is on your calling or passer (JC I am assuming) 19th in the league. From what I can see he is rated 9th in the league, which may be why he is not criticized. And how did you come to 18th for the punter that was fired?

Posted by: Curzon417 | October 21, 2008 9:09 PM | Report abuse

I went to NFL.com and searched passing as my category for statistics and voila - there is Redskins #19.

I did punting the same way.

I have never liked the "quarterback rating thing" it's like "offense ratings" - hey - how many points did you score and how many wins do you have?

I hope that Zorn proves me wrong and starts to show why he is considered such an offensive west coast guru with all of these points we are supposed to be seeing, I really do. Same with Campbell. But he has got the talent, let's see him use it. Throw some long passes to one of the best WR's in the league. Open up the offense and show us.

Posted by: captjim | October 21, 2008 9:21 PM | Report abuse

captjim,

Have you been drinking? You don't have your facts straight so, naturally, your analysis is incoherent. JC's the 7th rated QB in the league. The punter was ranked 32nd in the league. And if the 'Skins are 5-2 with a run-oriented offense, it follows they wouldn't put up as many passing yards as other teams. And if you're 5-2, doesn't that old cliche apply: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it?"

Posted by: talent_evaluator | October 21, 2008 9:23 PM | Report abuse

TE, Thanks mate, the hard thing is trying to find a beer to drink for the occassion! I can't seem to find a beer with Bonnie, Niece or even Baby in the name. Here are my options I reckon!

1) Bright Blowhard (Since the sister-in-law had to blow hard to get her out!)
http://www.beerstore.com.au/detail.asp?beerID=107

f) Grand Ridge Natural Blonde (She's going to be a natural blonde by the looks of things)
http://www.beerstore.com.au/detail.asp?beerID=64

~) Redoak Wee Heavy (While I don't yet have the details on her size, she looks like a big 'un!)
http://www.beerstore.com.au/detail.asp?beerID=32

Posted by: kost52 | October 21, 2008 9:25 PM | Report abuse

Then you must be talking about firing all of the players involved in the passing game.

Look, the passing offense is not where most of us want it to be, but it is definitely better than where it could be. Keep in mind the # of turnovers that JC had last year and how improved he is now. Let the team continue to make progress while winning and maybe by the second season of the NFL, we will be in the top 10 is passing offense.

As a fan, when I take a step back to look at this team, I am happy with where we are compared to where we could have been given our early schedule.

Posted by: Curzon417 | October 21, 2008 9:28 PM | Report abuse

Well maybe the folks have been drinking at NFL.com, that's where the statistics are - look them up for yourself!

If they don't have their facts straight, maybe you could straighten them out?

Posted by: captjim | October 21, 2008 9:29 PM | Report abuse

Love how Rogers has turned the corner and is now a wily veteran... go ahead, Carlos, go ahead!

Posted by: NateinthePDX | October 21, 2008 6:41 PM | Report abuse

----------------------------------------

Anyone else amazed at Gibbs' drafting?
Imagine if he didnt blow all those picks for free agents!

Posted by: mattsoundworld | October 21, 2008 9:36 PM | Report abuse

captjim, your ananlysis is badly flawed. I went to NFL.com to see what you saw, and yes, if you put teams in the Skins rank 19th in passing.

If you put INDIVIDUALS in, JC ranks # 12 (keep in mind sometimes RB's and WR's throw long passes, so their team stats go up but it's not all the QB's yards. Also, durability is important--just ask Romo and Brady!).

Furthermore, JC is #8 in NFL.com's fantasy ratings. I don't much care about fantasy stats, but I think your knock on JC is based on misinformation. If you don't like him, that's on you. But it can't seriously be because of his performance on the field.

By the way, Brooks was dead last in punting. How did you come up with him being ranked 18th?

Posted by: Alan4 | October 21, 2008 9:49 PM | Report abuse

"His statements brought unjustified negative attention to our organization, and violated the team-first concept of our football squad," Savage said.

Posted by: talent_evaluator | October 21, 2008 8:57 PM | Report abuse
----------------------------------------

Was I the only one who translated 'undisclosed illness' as 'the herpes' flair up?

Posted by: mattsoundworld | October 21, 2008 9:51 PM | Report abuse

Real quick Winslow had every right to be upset,this just in; a staph infection can kill you,i believe its called mmrsa a Redskin D tackle had a "staph infection" a few years back and damn near had to have his leg amputated his name escape's me right now,several Brown's had the same thing this is serious s#@t the Brown's need to handle this and stop playing politics with players lives!!.

Posted by: dargregmag | October 21, 2008 9:52 PM | Report abuse

captjim, OK, it looks like the stat sort at NFL.com is broken for punters. They have Jeff Feagles ranked #31 and Plackemeier ranked #1. I don't think so....

Anyway, you can look at the stats, which are pretty straightforward for punters. It's obvious that list is not sorted in any logical fashion.

Posted by: Alan4 | October 21, 2008 10:01 PM | Report abuse

Like I said earlier Alan4, I just went to NFL.com and selected punting under team standings. You can select any category you want in offense or defense and it will tell you where your team stands. You can also do it by player.

Posted by: captjim | October 21, 2008 10:03 PM | Report abuse

No. I didn't select punters, I selectsed stats, then sorted by punting and teams.

For example, if you select "offense" and then "game stats", the Redskins come out #7 (mainly because of their running). If you select "offense" and then "passing", the Redskins come out #19.

Posted by: captjim | October 21, 2008 10:08 PM | Report abuse

Hey guys, I have news for you:

The Redskins are tied for 2nd where it matters: the win-lost column.

Medium, baby. Medium.

Posted by: mattsoundworld | October 21, 2008 10:09 PM | Report abuse

Uh, I should probably add that I meant 'in our conference' before the stats nazi's freak.

Posted by: mattsoundworld | October 21, 2008 10:10 PM | Report abuse

Last week I had a pain in my tuchus like you wouldn't believe, and RI totally ignored it.

nate didn't call, Cindy didn't post a get-better, Zeke didn't explain how it was better not to take aspirin cause the net pain was a wash plus you gotta factor in the chance of choking on the pill.

I'm tired of being treated like a piece of meat around here.

A little respect, that's all I ask. Or slavish attention wouldn't be bad either.

Otherwise, I may consider switching over to that D.C. sports bog thingy. Or extreme skin, even. Well, maybe not that. . . .

Posted by: farstriker | October 21, 2008 10:14 PM | Report abuse

If this tookus pain was also the result of a dirty locker room, we don't wanna know about it.

Posted by: mattsoundworld | October 21, 2008 10:16 PM | Report abuse

Plus I had a staff infection, and man my staff is still sore as can be.

Posted by: farstriker | October 21, 2008 10:23 PM | Report abuse

Put it this way - our punter was 18th in the League and got fired. Our passer is 19th and he's not even criticized?

Posted by: captjim | October 21, 2008 8:46 PM

This is the statement you made that is bringing confusion. If by passer you mean JC, then there is no way that he is rated 19th. If you mean passing offense, then why should JC be criticized for all of the passing offense. the "pass catchers" have dropped several balls, and JC has had to throw away some more to avoid sacks or bad plays.

Regardless, overall the offense is getting the job done with a new coach and offensive system as reflected by the win/loss stat. Let's criticize this offense/coach when/if things fall apart.

Posted by: Curzon417 | October 21, 2008 10:24 PM | Report abuse

Put it this way - our punter was 18th in the League and got fired. Our passer is 19th and he's not even criticized?

Add this to the fact that we haven't really played but 1 (maybe 2 if you count the Eagles) good teams and what we have gentlemen is true analysis and not some homer saliva dripping.

Again, I'm a Skins fan - but if you're gonna step back and look at this team, you've gotta look at the coach first and then the quarterback.

Posted by: captjim | October 21, 2008 8:46 PM | Report abuse

Um, seems Captain Jim is very fond of Captain Morgan. How can you possibly criticize JC when he hasn't thrown a pick this year and is completing 64 percent of his passes and has kept his team in every game? That makes no sense. Yes, this offense needs to improve, but to say the offense is woeful is going, pardon my pun, "Overboard"

Posted by: ga8085 | October 21, 2008 10:25 PM | Report abuse

To my dear critics ...

No doubt game situation shows up in any decision. That includes Zorn's feeling on how Campbell was at that moment.

As for the FG netting zero points ... its an interesting criticism, but the zero number is a relative figure of merit, not absolute one. You lose opportunity when you give up the ball. You're just 35 yards away from scoring 7 points. Plus, I am only looking at that one play, not the product of the work that got you to the 35 yard line. The 45 yards you advanced the ball to get to this point is worth 3 points in my system.

Also, the analysis is unique because its 4th down, you either make a first down or give up possession in some manner. Which is not true on earlier downs.

Daggar's comment on game situation is also part of what a coach would consider. I'm not certain how to weight specific situations, for example how a 4th quarter decision would vary from a first quarter decision. What differs about the 4th quarter is that you no longer have a wide variety of things that can occur. You are down to a limited number of possessions.

For example, if that same situation occurs with a team down 9 and 4 minutes are left, the FG would appear more attractive because it makes it a 1 score game. But down by 12 points, the FG is meaningless. Late in the game, odds change because there are fewer discrete possibilities on how the game can evolve.

As for Kost's comments on using more relevant info for the situation, if you've got better quality info, go ahead and use it. By now, Zorn should have a sense on how 3rd and 4 has worked for this team. I just went with a relevant data point that was pretty easy to get. As for blocks, etc -- my guess is that the low probability events (even though they are high impact) wouldn't move the numbers much.

Cork, as for gut instincts, I have no issue with that. There is more relevant info than what I wrote. But when I look at a situation, I like to go with the odds. If I choose to do something different, I'd like to understand why. The fact is a ball downed at the 1 is part of this thought process, just as is a ball that gets into the end zone.

Cork, I've always had a bias towards going for it on 4th down, independent of the odds for exactly the reasons you cite. I'd like my team to know I have confidence in them. Both the offense and defense. I'd like the players to know that I'm interested in winning big. Both of those are emotional factors.

I'll give one other (painful) example. Kendall's blooper. We were at the 15 yard line. The turnover is -50 yards and the return is 85 yards, resulting in a 135 play (+ for the Rams, - for us). Using 15 yards per point as a figure of merit, that is a 9 point play. Which is pretty close to what is really was.

My sense is that the best number for the ratio of yards to points is between 10 and 15. But I'd need to do some real math work to get that and that's not going to happen.

Posted by: zcezcest1 | October 21, 2008 10:27 PM | Report abuse

As for the Yahoo! thing -- its where my girlfriend works. At least for now. If they get rid of her, you'll know where she lands by whoever the next sponsor is ...

Posted by: zcezcest1 | October 21, 2008 10:29 PM | Report abuse

My sense is that the best number for the ratio of yards to points is between 10 and 15. But I'd need to do some real math work to get that and that's not going to happen.

Posted by: zcezcest1 | October 21, 2008

==============================================

Real math work has an undeserved bad reputation.
~

Posted by: ifthethunderdontgetya | October 21, 2008 10:55 PM | Report abuse

I share your analytical spirit, zcezcest1, but my reality angel is kicking his ass right now.

A couple of underrated parts of the game are momentum and field position.

Lets say we miss the field goal.

Momentum AND field position would then favor the opponent.

Best case we hold them to a 3 n out after that. They punt. We take over possession waaaaaaay back in our territory and we have to start all over again. Nothing gained.

The same, of course, applies to going for it.

Now, lets say we've worked all the way down into their territory and want to keep momentum. You pin them back, put your D in a great position, and if they can come up with a stop, your offense can continue with that momentum.

You keep up the pressure every chance you get, you exploit their weaknesses whenever you can, but you never EVER let them off the hook.

Now, I think 4th and 1 is played too conservatively, but 4th n 4? Not so much. Especially when we have such a good D right now.

Posted by: mattsoundworld | October 21, 2008 11:00 PM | Report abuse

I think Winslow had every right to complain....he was hospitalized with a staph infection - which is very serious. Not to mention the Browns organization has been haunted by staph infections. The team tells the media that Winslow has a "nondisclosed illness" and indicates that Winslow does not want the illness stated. Which leads to wild internet reports that he has swollen testicles the size of a grapefruit!!!!

Come to find out the Browns were the party who wanted to keep it quiet - not Winslow. So he is being humiliated on the internet when in reality he was suffering from a serious condition.

Shame on the Browns!

Posted by: Lisa_R | October 22, 2008 12:00 AM | Report abuse

matt ... I capture the field position in the analysis, but not any emotional piece.

If you look at the three options, one thing you'll find is that the punt option had less variability. Best case, you pin them at the 1 and that is a -1 point. Worst case, the ball goes into the endzone and the ball is at the 20. That is a -2.3. The spread between best and worst case was just 1.3 points

The FG options spread was 3.9 points and the 'go for it' spread was 3.8 points. Both the FG and going for it were bigger risk and higher reward plays.

Posted by: zcezcest1 | October 22, 2008 12:01 AM | Report abuse

Note to CaptJim: If you like me and many other faithfull Redskin fans remember that "woeful" thursday in September and how "woeful" Jason looked and how Coach Zorn looked "woefully" lost in his coaching debut against the Giants you would have to admit this squad is leaps and bounds above what most of us could have ever imagined so to say that this team is "woeful" in some aspects is just well............."WOEFUL" Good Night Captjim

Posted by: dargregmag | October 22, 2008 12:09 AM | Report abuse

I wonder how the Redskins players feel about tackling a player with a staph infection? Seems like they were even more disrespected than Winslow... The injury report stated he had an illness.

Posted by: siris | October 22, 2008 1:21 AM | Report abuse

im pretty sure i just contracted a brain infection. ffing chill. play sunday well.

Posted by: CrappyWaiter | October 22, 2008 3:54 AM | Report abuse

woe is me

Posted by: CrappyWaiter | October 22, 2008 3:55 AM | Report abuse

BTW- I am a math teacher of Prob/Stat and I know the statistical argument is off. Assigning a point value to 15 yards is completely random. What does 15 yards have to do with that given situation. If anything we should use 4 yards=1 point. Once this flaw is made, the statistical analysis is completely useless...he must have a good reason if using a random number such as 15 and nothing fits the situation. Good try though yahoo!

Posted by: svxcountry1 | October 22, 2008 7:03 AM | Report abuse

I just read about "10 to 15 points being the best ratio from yards to points" and that is ridiculous. You are bringing in the Rams game as an example. That is an outlier game. You can't use long plays to skew your data. Also your Kendall play is 9 points "which is really close to what it was" is wrong. It wasn't even close. It was a 14 point swing. 14 is not close to 9 in the game of football. I love to see math being used to show something but this is very poor thought out.

Posted by: svxcountry1 | October 22, 2008 7:11 AM | Report abuse

Thanks to the guys who tried to set captjim straight last night, I would have just called him a F-ing idiot and went to bed.

He said we have not played any good teams so I checked are ranking in the NFL, and win lose totals of teams we have played.

We are tied for 5th in the nfl at 5-2 with Car. and Tamp.

Ten. 6-0 teams played 12-26 0 Div road games.

Bills 5-1 teams played 15-22 0 Div. games

Ginats 5-1 teams played 12-27 0 Div. road games

Pitts 5-1 teams played 13-24 2 Div. road games combined record 2-11

Car. 5-2 teams played 23-20 1 Div. road game

Tampa 5-2 teams played 25-22 1 Div. road game

Skins 5-2 teams played 23-21 3 Div. road games combined record 12-7

By these numbers we have played the hardest schedule in the NFL of teams that have a better record or are tied with us.

So captjim you are an idiot, Good night.

Posted by: Flounder21 | October 22, 2008 7:15 AM | Report abuse

that could have saved me a good 15 minutes worth of reading if you had done that last night flounder.

Posted by: svxcountry1 | October 22, 2008 7:25 AM | Report abuse

We are sitting very pretty in the Div. the Giants have a very tough schedule from here on out, they have to play the girls twice, the iggles twice and the Skins at FedEx.

I know the girls are down but NFC east matchups are always tough.

They play Pitt. this week on the road, then they have Ari, Car, Bal, and Minn. not in that order of course.

I'm predicting the Giants will finish at 10-6 or 11-5, I think the Skins can get to 11-5 it's going to be a fun 10 weeks to the playoffs.

Posted by: Flounder21 | October 22, 2008 7:47 AM | Report abuse

Last week I had a pain in my tuchus like you wouldn't believe, and RI totally ignored it.

nate didn't call, Cindy didn't post a get-better, Zeke didn't explain how it was better not to take aspirin cause the net pain was a wash plus you gotta factor in the chance of choking on the pill.

I'm tired of being treated like a piece of meat around here.

A little respect, that's all I ask. Or slavish attention wouldn't be bad either.

Otherwise, I may consider switching over to that D.C. sports bog thingy. Or extreme skin, even. Well, maybe not that. . . .

Posted by: farstriker | October 21, 2008 10:14 PM | Report abuse

Farstriker!

Best Post of the Night

Any chance of the Ballad returning?

Posted by: AFan4Skins | October 22, 2008 7:55 AM | Report abuse

Kost, congrats, hope everyone is well.

Captjim, paralysis by overanalysis..just enjoy that they're 5-2. All that other stuff you're spewing is just filler, and not much more.....

I have to agree with Winslow on this. I think that Bentley also developed a staph infection...a few years back.

Anyway, regarding the main subject of this post, Tryon, I'm glad he's been humbled, and I'm glad he seemingly has begun to put in the work, that bodes well for him.

Posted by: BeantownGreg | October 22, 2008 8:18 AM | Report abuse

beep beep, get better farstriker....like such as maps

Posted by: CindyBoren | October 22, 2008 8:23 AM | Report abuse

Good morning,

I'd like to start off the day by jumping on the pile that captjim is buried under.

Are you seriously calling the Skins a "one-trick" pony b/c our running game is awesome and we have a good defense?

I seem to recall the Steelers, Ravens, and Bucs, winning SuperBowls with this formula.

So last year when the Pats were ranked first in passing and 13th in running, by your logic the running game wasn't holding it's own, huh? Barely in the top third of the league? The Pats RBs and running backs coach should have been fired?

Your passing game stat is based on one thing - passing yards per game. If we are moving the ball by running (and we do have the number 1 rusher in the league), then that means we have no need to go deep very often, and it will limit the number of pass attempts per game.

We have a coach who is willing to evolve his offensive philosophy to accomodate the talent on this team and finr a winning formula - and you are criticizing him for it?

No, my friend, you may not have homer salvia dripping from your mouth - maybe it's rabies foam.


Posted by: p1funk | October 22, 2008 8:46 AM | Report abuse

it is great to see rodgers playing as well as he was supposed to for the last few years. i will withold agreeing to the hype until he plays a few more games. if he continues to play as well as he is i will jump on his band wagon. i just hope he his contract is not up yet and making that the reason he is playing this good. if he continues this way then he deserves a good new contract. but one year does not make him great.

Posted by: rls1041 | October 22, 2008 9:13 AM | Report abuse

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