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Another view on Taitz's prospects

My colleague Ben Pershing points to one piece of evidence arguing that Orly Taitz's hopes of winning the GOP nomination for California Secretary of State are more dire than they seem, despite her media profile. Last week, the OC Register's Martin Wiscol reported that Taitz had raised only $6,000, and that most of her $45,600 budget came from her own bank account. By contrast, her opponent went into election day with a $336,000 war chest, most of that coming from donations.

A 7-1 funding disadvantage should spell landslide defeat for Taitz, right? Well, these sort of low-information elections are tough to predict. Remember our friend Tim Crawford, the hapless tea partyer who won a Democratic primary for Congress in Indiana? He defeated the establishment's choice, Nasser Hanna, in a rout. But Hanna raised $110,995 and spent $31,312. Crawford raised, and spent... nothing. He never filed an FEC report. Democrats who didn't know either candidate marched into the polling place and pulled for the guy at the top of the ballot with a familiar-sounding name.

The quick take -- this is an impossible election to predict. Taitz could win in a squeaker. She could lose by 90 points. We don't know, which is why California Republicans will spend the next eight hours idly wishing they'd raised Damon Dunn's profile a bit and made Taitz a non-factor.

By David Weigel  |  June 8, 2010; 3:12 PM ET
Categories:  2010 Election , Fringe  
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