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Posted at 8:46 AM ET, 12/29/2010

More 2011 predictions

By Jennifer Rubin

I went to two of the smartest Republican advisers/analysts for their prognostications about 2011. Todd Harris, a Republican strategist and communications director on the 2008 Fred Thompson presidential campaign, had this:

1) Tea Parties will continue to maintain prominence, but watch for social conservatives to begin trying to flex some muscle again, especially if the economy starts to improve.

2) Establishment GOPers in Washington have a love/hate relationship with the Tea Party. They love the energy the Tea Party brings, but are also secretly terrified of them. They saw what happened to [Utah Sen. Bob] Bennett, [Delaware Rep. Mike] Castle and others. That means issues like deficit reduction, spending cuts and other Tea Party issues may receive the attention they deserve. Fear of the Tea Party may motivate Washington to make real cuts.

Dana Perino, president of Dana Perino and Company and White House press secretary to President Bush, offered her take on Obama's supposed comeback:

I don't think anyone's really buying that the president's approval rating is about to turn around because of the legislation passed in the lame duck. I give this about a two-week shelf life, especially as a bright light is shone on the regulations that are coming out of Obamacare and the financial regulatory reform bill. The more people -- and businesses -- find out about what's required to be in compliance with the new laws, the more convoluted it gets. The squeakiest wheels are getting greased through exemptions, but someone's going to have to bear the brunt of these bills -- and that will keep job creation at a slow crawl.

But liberals keep telling me that Obama is "back" and the Tea Party is a bunch of wackos. Hmm. I guess we'll find out which side is right soon enough.

By Jennifer Rubin  | December 29, 2010; 8:46 AM ET
Categories:  President Obama, economy  
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Comments

Jennifer, predictably, you turn to two republicans. Look. This is the Washington Post, not the Washington Times. Your little piece here on predictions may have been a bit more credible if you had balanced it out.

For the record, the Tea Party may concern itself with the deficit and spending cuts but like everyone else they are loathe to come up with any specifics. What scares the GOP about the Tea Party is that sooner or later the public is going to catch on that they don't have a clue as to how to govern and tend to talk in broad, overly general sets of philosophical principles. At some point the public will tire of hearing them preach about their philosophy and will begin demanding that they come up with a governing agenda. And quite honestloy, they really don't have one.

Posted by: jaxas70 | December 29, 2010 9:34 AM | Report abuse

So one of the smartest GOP analysts has predicted that the "Tea Parties will continue to maintain prominence." Interesting. There has been zero tea party prominence since the election. Congress just extended tax cuts which will bloat the deficit and there was not a peep from the tea party. Wasn't deficit reduction a top issue with them? The tea party is clearly over.

Posted by: rgray | December 29, 2010 9:50 AM | Report abuse

Um, guys, the name of the blog is "Right Turn." The whole point of it is to look at things from a right wing perspective. It is meant to be a counterweight to the heavily left-leaning Sargent and Klein blogs. It isn't supposed to be balanced. People like me don't complain when Ezra bases his economic analysis is basically a regurgitation of what Krugman and Stiglitz have to say. I don't seem to recall Greg Sargent getting his talking points on gay rights from the religious right.

If differing points of view bother you so, then go hang out on Huffington Post where any dissent from the party line is moderated out.

Finally, pointing out hypocrisy in politics is boring because it is a Poli Sci 101 level of analysis. Everyone in politics is an advocate for something and being an advocate for something involves hypocrisy at some level.

Posted by: sold2u | December 29, 2010 10:58 AM | Report abuse

One does not have to be an ideologue to see what Dana Perino sees: that the more we learn about PACCA (aka Obamacare), the more we will see a direct correlation with still too slow private sector job growth.

Anyone who thinks Obama made a comeback should consider that DADT always had the support as a standalone law not buried in the Defense Appropriations bill.

Obama's weakness in both governance and leadership will continue.

Posted by: K2K2 | December 29, 2010 11:10 AM | Report abuse

"At some point the public will tire of hearing them preach about their philosophy and will begin demanding that they come up with a governing agenda."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Exactly what office does the Tea Party hold? To pretend that some leaderless grassroots movement that holds no political office is supposed to implement some governing agenda is imbecilic.

Posted by: alexandria6351 | December 29, 2010 11:11 AM | Report abuse

sold2u: Well said. When Jennifer announced she was starting this blog I predicted that her point of view would rouse the ire (to put it mildly) of the Left. Looking at the comments these past weeks has borne out this prediction. The nasty, ad hominem comments and attacks directed at Jennifer personally and her analysis and point of view reveal much about the intellectual heft, maturity, tolerance and respect for diversity of opinion by some (most?) on the Left.

It is fun to watch stuck pigs squeal, though.

Posted by: DocC1 | December 29, 2010 11:32 AM | Report abuse

What will weigh heavy on Obama's (and the Dem Party) ratings over the next two years are the details from the thousands of pages from the Health Care law that never got exposed to the light prior to the vote, which will become known slowly. Those details will be a constant toxic pressure. Clinton was helped that his never got approved.

Among other things that will hurt Obama is his persistence in implementing Carbon regulations without Congress and without consensus.

This recent talk that Obama is making a comeback by superficial appearances of compromise is overblown. Obama's worldview, shared with the hard left, about how the world works or should work will lead him to take actions/decisions that will hurt him with voters. He can't help himself. He sincerely believes in his view and he can't help but to act on it.

Your opinion that the Tea Party movement cannot lead to the implementation of a political agenda, alexandria6351, shows you have never been exposed to Hayek's ideas about spontaneous organization from below. I don't share your religious like faith in 'experts' and the infallibility of top down organization - especially of the government type.

Posted by: Otiose1 | December 29, 2010 12:18 PM | Report abuse

The tea party is over? Please. They are just beginning. They just need to stay focused on fiscal issues and growth of government. These are popular issues. And trimming back government spending to levels of 5-10 years ago is not the apocalypse. We have gone back to 2006 levels in VA, balanced the budget without raising taxes. I think the sun is still rising in the east.

I think we are seeing in NJ, a very blue state, that a budget cutting executive can be relatively popular. Christie is polling over 50% I do believe, unless it changed?

If people start to understand we are REALLY out of money and the mad spending is hurting us, they will go along. The 75% of the public that isn't crazy left, that is.

It's the last year under Bush and these terrible Obama years that spending really went nuts. Culling that will not bring the end of the world.

Posted by: jmpickett | December 29, 2010 12:41 PM | Report abuse


Starting this year your child (or children) cannot be denied coverage simply because they have a pre-existing health condition. If you don't have insurance for you and your children search "Wise Health Insurance" online they are the best.

Posted by: calvincarter | December 30, 2010 2:58 AM | Report abuse

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