Republican 2012 contenders line up
Today or tomorrow, we hear, Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) will announce what he is running for, governor or president. Sen. John Thune is edging closer to running for president. And Mitt Romney is keeping his powder dry, content to stay out of the limelight -- and away from criticism of RomneyCare.
Over at Public Policy Polling's blog, Democrat Tom Jensen warns Romney about skipping Iowa:
If Mike Huckabee doesn't run, Romney would start out tied for the lead in the state! If you allocate all of Huckabee's supporters to who they said was their second choice on our poll there earlier this month you would end up with Romney and Sarah Palin tied for the lead at 23% each with Newt Gingrich at 18% and no one else with double digits. This is not a state where Romney would have to be coming from behind. Choosing not to compete there would basically be an admission that you assume you're going to blow it.
There are multiple problems with that analysis. First, Romney wouldn't necessarily, and likely would not, pick up Huckabee voters. Far more likely, these voters would flock to Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour or other candidates who have strong appeal to Evangelical voters and would not be weighted down by ObamaCare.
Jensen also, incorrectly I think, asserts that Palin is running. From all appearances, she isn't revving up for a presidential run.
And finally, not running in Iowa would provoke criticism; losing Iowa would be devastating. Romney will only compete in Iowa if he is certain he can win it. I doubt that he is, and therefore, don't think he'll risk it all in Iowa.
Posted by: steven2012 | January 27, 2011 5:41 PM | Report abuse
Posted by: amyhass35 | January 27, 2011 7:50 PM | Report abuse
Posted by: RedFeather | January 27, 2011 9:18 PM | Report abuse
Posted by: Shingo1 | January 27, 2011 9:40 PM | Report abuse
Posted by: StraightAhead | January 28, 2011 3:57 AM | Report abuse
Posted by: dcdinnell | January 28, 2011 9:27 AM | Report abuse