Network News

X My Profile
View More Activity
On Twitter: SoccerInsider and PostSports  |  Facebook  |  Sports e-mail alerts  |  RSS

MLS's Muddled Playoff Picture

Okay, ready? With help from the MLS communications dept., we can tell you this about the playoff pursuit heading into the final week of the regular season:

CHICAGO:
Will clinch a playoff spot IF:
Chicago defeats LA on Sunday OR IF
Chicago ties LA on Sunday AND any two of the following occur:
LA fails to win against NY on Thursday
Kansas City loses to FC Dallas on Saturday
Colorado fails to win against RSL on Saturday OR IF
Chicago loses to LA on Sunday AND any two of the following occur:
LA loses to NY on Thursday
Kansas City loses to FC Dallas on Saturday
Colorado fails to win against RSL on Saturday

LOS ANGELES:
If LA defeats NY on Thursday, the Galaxy will clinch a playoff spot IF:
LA ties or defeats Chicago on Sunday AND either of the following occur:
Colorado fails to win against Real Salt Lake on Saturday
Kansas City loses to FC Dallas on Saturday

If LA ties NY on Thursday, the Galaxy will clinch a playoff spot IF:
LA defeats Chicago on Sunday AND either of the following occur:
Colorado fails to win against RSL on Saturday
Kansas City loses to FC Dallas on Saturday

KANSAS CITY:
Will clinch a playoff spot IF:
Kansas City defeats FC Dallas on Saturday OR
Kansas City ties FC Dallas on Saturday AND any two of the following occur:
LA fails to win BOTH of its two games
Colorado fails to win against Real Salt Lake on Saturday
Colorado wins by less than three goals^
Chicago loses to LA on Sunday
(Because Colorado and Kansas City tied both times they met this season, their placing will be determined by goal differential if they finish the season tied in points.)

COLORADO:
Will clinch a playoff spot IF:
Colorado defeats Real Salt Lake on Saturday AND any two of the following occur:
Los Angeles does not win both its games this week
Chicago loses or ties Sunday
Kansas City loses Saturday
Kansas City ties Saturday and Colorado defeats RSL by three goals

For United supporters, it means D.C. could end up playing any of these teams in the first round, even someone from the West if five teams from that conference qualify for the playoffs (unless, of course, I have somehow misread these very simple scenarios)

Got it? Quiz later.

By Steve Goff  |  October 15, 2007; 12:35 PM ET
Categories:  MLS  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Copa Mundial 2010 -- Golazo!
Next: In Honor of El Diablo

Comments

Thanks for clearing that up....?!

Posted by: JkR | October 15, 2007 12:53 PM | Report abuse

This post is above my pay grade.

Posted by: DCBird | October 15, 2007 12:57 PM | Report abuse

My head hurts now. Thanks Goff.

Posted by: Natty | October 15, 2007 12:58 PM | Report abuse

I just vurped a little.

Posted by: Logan Circle | October 15, 2007 1:03 PM | Report abuse

One more KC scenario...

KC loses at Dallas, AND
LA fails to win both games, AND
Colorado fails to win vs RSL

Posted by: Kurt | October 15, 2007 1:05 PM | Report abuse

The only thing I can really wrap my head around at this point is that Thursday nights game is fairly huge.

Posted by: Chico | October 15, 2007 1:06 PM | Report abuse

And I'm sure somewhere, someone is saying how this is so much better than a simple 1-8 single table format...

Posted by: TG | October 15, 2007 1:07 PM | Report abuse

"LA ties or defeats Chicago on Sunday AND either of the following occur:
Colorado fails to win against Real Salt Lake on Saturday Kansas City loses to FC Dallas on Saturday"

-------------

if LA wins it's two remaining games, they're in regardless of what happens in the other games.

even if both Colorado and KC win, it would look like this:
KC - 40 pts
LA - 39 pts
Col - 38 pts
Chi - 37 pts

they control their own destiny

Posted by: pat | October 15, 2007 1:07 PM | Report abuse

So the plot thickens? I like it. Everybody has to play till the last whistle. None of that resting starters for the playoff business.

Posted by: Bart | October 15, 2007 1:09 PM | Report abuse

My understanding is that LA controls their own destiny. With 2 more wins they get to 39 points, and they don't need any help (from KC or Colorado results).

---------
If LA defeats NY on Thursday, the Galaxy will clinch a playoff spot IF:
LA ties or defeats Chicago on Sunday AND either of the following occur:
Colorado fails to win against Real Salt Lake on Saturday
Kansas City loses to FC Dallas on Saturday
---------

If LA beats both NY and Chicago, they'll finish ahead of Colorado and Chicago -- so they'll get either the 7th or 8th playoff spot.

If LA beats NY but ties Chicago, then LA will need help from KC and Colorado dropping points in their final games.

Posted by: LA Destiny | October 15, 2007 1:12 PM | Report abuse

What Pat said.

Posted by: Yeah | October 15, 2007 1:13 PM | Report abuse

so, this means I am reduced to having to root for NY on Thursday? I think I will need to take a shower after that game.

how sad is it that LA could be so woefully abysmal for 9 months and then start winning in the last month and could still manage to make the playoffs?

Posted by: Glenn | October 15, 2007 1:16 PM | Report abuse

as much as i dislike LA, the spotlight that the league gets when Beckham is on the field is great for the league. he'll probably even get credit for rescuing their season even though he's been injured for their run of late.

i'd love to see DC beat LA in front of a sold out MLS Cup crowd.

Posted by: pat | October 15, 2007 1:21 PM | Report abuse

LA only underachieved for 5.5 months this season, not 9 months.

If LA gets into the playoffs, it will likely be because they earned 21 (or 19 points) from their last seven games.

Good for them. Have there been any other teams that have earned that many points from a 7-game set at any point during this season?

Of course, LA could be tired by now, and they'll fail to qualify (by dropping points in their next two games), and folks can look forward to those exciting Rapids or Wizards in the playoffs.

Posted by: Season not that long | October 15, 2007 1:22 PM | Report abuse

I don't think LA making the playoffs is any more abysmal than, say, Colorado, who have more or less muddled along the entire year. If LA ends up with more points, then they deserve it more.

Posted by: Ash | October 15, 2007 1:24 PM | Report abuse

"i'd love to see DC beat LA in front of a sold out MLS Cup crowd.

Posted by: pat | October 15, 2007 01:21 PM "

*********

You forgot to end that statement with "AGAIN."

I was there in '99 and it was awesome!!

Posted by: Anonymous | October 15, 2007 1:24 PM | Report abuse

If 5 teams from the West make it, DC could face LA in the first round.

If 4 teams make it, then it would be an all LA affair Galaxy vs Chivas in the first round

Either way having LA in the playoffs will bring more attention to MLS when the general sport focus is on the world series, bsc standings, and nfl.

Posted by: emanon | October 15, 2007 1:25 PM | Report abuse

"i'd love to see DC beat LA in front of a sold out MLS Cup crowd.

Posted by: pat | October 15, 2007 01:21 PM "

*********

You forgot to end that statement with "AGAIN."

I was there in '99 and it was awesome!!

Posted by: Soy United! | October 15, 2007 1:26 PM | Report abuse

LA should play Beckham in the 2nd half if they are trailing or tied. It would guarantee them enough added time to score.

Posted by: I-270, Exit 1 | October 15, 2007 1:27 PM | Report abuse

What was the middle one?

Posted by: Brian | October 15, 2007 1:30 PM | Report abuse

---
If 4 teams make it, then it would be an all LA affair Galaxy vs Chivas in the first round
---

Chivas USA can still finish second in the West (if Houston passes them for first).

LA v Houston is a potential first round matchup.

Posted by: Houston | October 15, 2007 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Goff, any news about Moreno? Hoping he didn't pick up any knocks in Montevideo. Uruguay's 5-0 shelacking(sp?) of Bolivia doesn't bode well for the Andeans' hopes of qualifying for SA2010...

Posted by: Soy United! | October 15, 2007 1:41 PM | Report abuse

"If LA gets into the playoffs, it will likely be because they earned 21 (or 19 points) from their last seven games.

Good for them. Have there been any other teams that have earned that many points from a 7-game set at any point during this season?"

Uh yeah. United earned 19 points in seven games back in Aug-Sept...starting with a win against the Revs and ending with a tie at Chivas USA. And United went on to win its next two games after that...so, really it was 25 points in 9 games.

Posted by: DE | October 15, 2007 1:42 PM | Report abuse

I think the MLS dream scenario is to get LA and Chicago in the playoffs. It can happen if KC and Colorado both lose (Colorado could tie as well). If that were to happen, then the playoff matchups would look almost scripted....

DC vs Chicago
NY vs NE
Chivas vs LA
Houston vs Dallas

Posted by: lawrenceterp | October 15, 2007 1:44 PM | Report abuse

I gather that all the tiebreakers work against Columbus. (Or is it that no one gives them a chance of getting three points at RFK?)

Posted by: Section 410 | October 15, 2007 1:54 PM | Report abuse

I don't know how these brackets fall... Is there any way to finagle LA and DCU in the final at RFK?

Now that would be something to see! (And with Becks back in good health, the world would see it!)

Posted by: Anonymous | October 15, 2007 2:06 PM | Report abuse

I gather that all the tiebreakers work against Columbus. (Or is it that no one gives them a chance of getting three points at RFK?)

Posted by: Section 410 | October 15, 2007 01:54 PM

I think even if Columbus wins they will only have 37 points which would put them at a tie with Chicago and KC...but they both have the win advantage over Columbus.

Saturday's DC vs. Columbus game will probably be the reserves.

Posted by: Southeasterner | October 15, 2007 2:06 PM | Report abuse

Nothing like a little formal logic to pepper the Monday afternoon at work...

Posted by: Mickey | October 15, 2007 2:11 PM | Report abuse

So, would becks be fit enough to play in the cup?
If so, that would be very interesting.

Really though, I've seen some uninspired games from DC recently. I hope we have a serious gut check before the cup. I want us winning this sucker.

Posted by: bribri | October 15, 2007 2:15 PM | Report abuse

becks trained last week, there's a chance he'll play in thursday's game it seems.

i imagine if they lose thursday and have nothing to play for he would just rest out a meaningless game on sunday though.

Posted by: pat | October 15, 2007 2:19 PM | Report abuse

So do play Nolly on Saturday? :-)

Posted by: Hope Solo | October 15, 2007 2:22 PM | Report abuse

Nolly on Saturday? I rather see Hope Solo...

Posted by: DirtyHarry | October 15, 2007 2:33 PM | Report abuse

That sound you may have heard was my brain exploding.

Posted by: Colm | October 15, 2007 2:55 PM | Report abuse

LA needs no help if it wins both games

Posted by: Mike | October 15, 2007 2:56 PM | Report abuse

I gather that all the tiebreakers work against Columbus. (Or is it that no one gives them a chance of getting three points at RFK?)

Posted by: Section 410


Cowlumbus was eliminated on Sat. And no, I don't see them getting 3 pts at RFK - at least I better not see it.

Posted by: marksman | October 15, 2007 2:59 PM | Report abuse

This could be an interesting choice for DCers

Option 1: Live in person match of LA (with a healthy Beckham) vs DC for the final

vs

Option 2: Watching Redskins Cowboys on tv

Posted by: Anonymous | October 15, 2007 3:03 PM | Report abuse

"This could be an interesting choice for DCers

Option 1: Live in person match of LA (with a healthy Beckham) vs DC for the final

vs

Option 2: Watching Redskins Cowboys on tv

Posted by: | October 15, 2007 03:03 PM"

Um, no brainer! Live spanking of LA at RFK everytime!

Posted by: Soy United! | October 15, 2007 3:10 PM | Report abuse

Beckham or no Beckham, if United's in the final it'll be a sellout crowd.

Posted by: Chico | October 15, 2007 3:14 PM | Report abuse

I have tickets for great seats vs. Columbus. Anybody want to exhange them for playoff tickets? ;-)

Posted by: David | October 15, 2007 3:15 PM | Report abuse

Kpene will score his first goal for DC this weekend.

Posted by: Matte | October 15, 2007 3:25 PM | Report abuse

"Nothing like a little formal logic to pepper the Monday afternoon at work...

Posted by: Mickey | October 15, 2007 02:11 PM"

I wrote some code to figure out the resulting probabilities, statistically speaking. Unfortunately, I can't find good odds on all the games. Oh well, back to writing code that I actually get paid for.

Posted by: LeesburgSoccerFan | October 15, 2007 3:31 PM | Report abuse

You've got the Colorado scenario wrong. Colorado has to win to get to 38 points but only ONE of the following has to happen:

KC loses (This would put KC at 37, and either LA at 39 and Chicago at 37, or LA below 38 and Chicago at 38, either way Colorado is in)
OR
Chicago and LA draw (Chicago at 38 loses the tiebreaker with Colorado, LA would be at best at 37, so Colorado would be in)
OR
LA doesn't beat RBNY and beats Chicago (Chicago at 37, LA at best at 37, so Colorado is in)
OR
KC draws Dallas, Rapids win by 3 (KC and Rapids both at 38 but Rapids win the GD tiebreaker, eitehr Chicago or LA higher than 38, so COlorado is in)

Posted by: Jason | October 15, 2007 3:32 PM | Report abuse

Skins at Cowboys or Gals at RFK?

No brainer, especially when the magic of DVR can reduce a four-hour gridiron game to twenty minutes of action.

Posted by: bribri | October 15, 2007 3:32 PM | Report abuse

This could be an interesting choice for DCers

Option 1: Live in person match of LA (with a healthy Beckham) vs DC for the final

vs

Option 2: Watching Redskins Cowboys on tv

Posted by: | October 15, 2007 03:03 PM

Why can't you do both? The Redskins game won't start until 1:00 so by the time the MLS Cup final is over (2:00?) they will probably be about 2 minutes and 8 commercial breaks into the game. I'm glad the NFL decided to make every regular season NFL game just as long as the Super Bowl to increase advertising revenue because it finally drove me to use a TIVO and skip em all.

Thank god for college football or I would have to give up on that sport.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 15, 2007 4:36 PM | Report abuse

"The Redskins game won't start until 1:00 so by the time the MLS Cup final is over (2:00?) they will probably be about 2 minutes and 8 commercial breaks into the game."

You're forgetting traffic out of RFK. By the time you get home, you'll have missed the first 10 minutes. Don't worry though, the Cowboys will only be 14 points ahead.

Posted by: I-270, Exit 1 | October 15, 2007 5:23 PM | Report abuse

Don't worry about playoffs.

The magic of BCS makes them unnecessary.

Posted by: garbaggio | October 15, 2007 5:25 PM | Report abuse

This could be an interesting choice for DCers

Option 1: Live in person match of LA (with a healthy Beckham) vs DC for the final

vs

Option 2: Watching Redskins Cowboys on tv

Posted by: | October 15, 2007 03:03 PM

Beckham and the Gals? I would take KC vs. Chivas over watching Dallas destroy the Redskins for 4 hours. Did you watch Dallas and the Redskins yesterday? You still want to see them play each other?

Posted by: Southeasterner | October 15, 2007 5:34 PM | Report abuse

"Now that would be something to see! (And with Becks back in good health, the world would see it!)"
----

Only does the MLS Cup game have to be at 12 noon?!? Aside from hoping a handful of people in Europe will wanna see it, couldn't they switch the start time to 3pm? That'd give the fans more time to tailgate, etc.

Posted by: Juan-John | October 15, 2007 5:49 PM | Report abuse

So now that Chivas won't get the Supporters Shield, it has three hopes for international (i.e. CCC) play next year:

1. That DCU wins the MLS Cup, which gives Chivas the automatic second berth in the CCC, OR

2. Chivas wins the MLS Cup, regardless of the opponent,
OR

3. Chivas makes the MLS Cup game and plays against DCU. Regardless of who wins that game, they both go on to compete in the CCC.

Am I correct on this? Only reason I bring it up is in the hope of seeing the USA Goats get creamed by the Guadalajara Goats who subsequently get creamed by DCU... :-)

Posted by: Juan-John | October 15, 2007 5:59 PM | Report abuse

Not sure of the accuracy of this claim, but I recall hearing that the early MLS Cup start time was due to a NASCAR race ABC is showing in the afternoon.

Posted by: emanon | October 15, 2007 6:02 PM | Report abuse

there is also the potential of an all Chivas matchup in next year's Superliga, since the top 4 teams in MLS will be playing

Posted by: emanon | October 15, 2007 6:11 PM | Report abuse

Hasn't the percentage of households who have cable or satellite TV reached the point that there is little advantage to airing an event on ABC rather than BSPN or BSPN2? It is better to have MLS Cup on cable later in the day than to have it on rabbit-ear TV at noon (or at mid-morning, depending on where you live).

Posted by: Section 410 | October 15, 2007 7:10 PM | Report abuse

"It is better to have MLS Cup on cable later in the day than to have it on rabbit-ear TV at noon"

It's better for us. But we are in the minority of TV viewers. Whether broadcast or cable, Disney will make more money by showing ex-football players yelling at each other from behind a desk in the afternoon.

Posted by: I-270, Exit 1 | October 15, 2007 10:38 PM | Report abuse

Many appear to be assuming that Chivas will win the West and finish second for the SS. With Houston's victory over RSL last night they are just one point behind the Goats and play them on Sunday.
It could be the Dynamo in all those scenarios.

asitis

Posted by: asitis | October 16, 2007 7:57 AM | Report abuse

November 18 falls on an international match weekend. Bolivia plays Argentina in a WC qualifier. Can/would Jaime refuse his country if the DCU is in the cup final?

Goff, I'm not telling you how to do your job but, this might be an interesting angle to explore.

Posted by: Tommie | October 16, 2007 8:01 AM | Report abuse

I prefer to call this a relegation battle, where the two unworthy teams are relegated from the MLS Cup mini-league.

Posted by: Eric | October 16, 2007 9:34 AM | Report abuse

Well, we all know the most attractive MLS Cup would be one with the Jewel of the MLS in it. The GaLAxy has to definitely be there if you want to fill that stadium and have good ratings. The DC U will not be there of course. They can't win games that count! As for the Dirty Goats, I hope they get the West number one spot. The GaLAxy will beat them two Games at our Stadium the HDC. The best venue to watch a Futbol match. Well guys see you at RFK and be prepared to see the GaLAxy take it.

Posted by: OnlyoneLA | October 16, 2007 6:15 PM | Report abuse

LA makes playoffs
LA draws NY: LA must beat Fire and
KC loss or CO nonwin
LA over NY: LA in with win at Chicago
or draw and one of KC loss or CO nonwin

Fire makes playoffs with win
or draw and either of
CO nonwin or win coin toss(es)
KC nonwin (Chicago has total goals)
or a loss and two of
LA loss to NY
CO nonwin
KC loss

KC makes playoffs with a win
or draw and CO nonwin or win coin toss
or a loss and both of
CO nonwin
LA loss to NY or Fire or draws both

CO makes playoffs with win and one of
KC loss
Fire loss and LA nonwin vs NY
Fire draw and coin toss
KC draw and coin toss

Posted by: JC | October 18, 2007 8:03 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
RSS Feed
Subscribe to The Post

© 2010 The Washington Post Company