Which Party Is More Divided?
[Need personal advice of a political nature? Or political advice of a personal nature? Send your question to Stumped. Questions may be edited.]
Dear Stumped,
It seems to me that the Democratic Party is in more disarray than the Republican Party. First, Republican leaders seem to know exactly who they want as their candidate: John McCain. Yes, some Republican voters seem to be torn. But these rifts seem easily repaired by placing Mike Huckabee on the ticket, locking in the all-important evangelical vote. Mitt Romney voters, of which I am one, are smart and pragmatic enough to understand that we need to get on board or face four years of Barack Obama or, God forbid, Hillary Clinton. Sure, I was furious with McCain and Huckabee on Wednesday, but I'm already starting to climb down. My guess is so will most of the rest.
On the other hand, a lot of big Democratic endorsements seem to be going Obama's way, yet he is not winning in a walkaway like McCain. The Democratic Party seems much less capable of imposing its will. It is a much closer race -- and if I know my Clintons, it will get much nastier as it goes to the wire. They may very well end up with a big fight at the convention. Unlike Romney Republicans, Democratic voters seem much more emotionally invested in their choice. The losers will likely be much more disappointed than I am about losing Mitt. Finally, if this goes as I suspect, there will be little time to mend fences.
Any thoughts?
-- Matt in the O.C.
Dear Matt,
I don't agree with you yet, but may come around to your position if the Democrats become embroiled in a nasty and self-destructive credentials fight going into the convention. So far, I don't believe the Obama-Clinton showdown has done lasting damage to the party's unity or energy. Indeed, what is so remarkable about the spirited fight for the nomination is that there is so little at stake, in terms of competing visions or agendas for the Democratic Party.
In the old days, these intramural Democratic contests featured Southern conservatives against Northeastern liberals with radically different worldviews. All Clinton and Obama can argue about is the proper route to (a mutually desired) universal health care coverage. The party, rarely so united, didn't feature a single primary candidate calling for staying the course in Iraq. Was Joe Lieberman the last hawkish Democrat?
The point is that once the nomination is settled, it will be easy for most Democrats to rally around the winner, since there are no discernible beliefs or principles -- beyond a judgment on the relative merits of the two candidates -- that Obama and Clinton supporters will be asked to compromise in order to support the other. That is why it is also easy to picture the two on the same ticket.
So even though the Republicans will have wrapped up their contest earlier, it is still likely that the Democrats will be more united in the fall (used to be the GOP was all about unity). To your point, I don't think it is a sign of strength that McCain may have to consider Huckabee as a running mate, to appease evangelicals. Does anyone this side of an Alabama Baptist congregation believe that would help McCain's chances to beat the Democrats?
McCain is a formidable candidate because of his appeal to swing voters, which is why the party's elite is coalescing around him. And you are right that a growing faction of the Democratic elite feels the same way about Obama, though they may not prevail. But I wouldn't conclude that there is more "disarray" among Republicans. On too many issues -- immigration, free speech, gun regulations, the role of institutional religion in politics -- McCain is at odds with millions of the most ardent Republicans across the country. Whether that poses an insurmountable problem remains to be seen, but it is a notable problem the Democratic nominee will not face -- unless, of course, there is some bruising process battle that results in the triumph of a candidate for the nomination whom half the party then considers illegitimate.
If that happens, then yes, the Democrats will be in even greater disarray than the GOP.
Dear Stumped,
I have an addiction. For the past seven months I have regularly engaged in political campaigning. It is consuming most of my time and energy. I tell myself that I'll quit, just one more primary (or one more caucus) -- but to no avail. It's affecting my social life, my schoolwork and my wallet. I literally passed on getting a new winter coat because I wanted to save gas money to go volunteer in South Carolina.
Each state is supposed to be my last, and yet the candidates keep battling it out, and I continue to call voters and distribute literature. How do I escape the endlessness of primary season and get my life back?
-- Fae Jencks
Dear Fae,
As addictions go, you could do far worse, and you should take some consolation that this is the most exciting primary season ever, leading up to the most important presidential election since 2004. (I don't want to be all hyperbole.)
Seriously, maybe you'd be wearing that new coat if this were 2004 and you had an incumbent president on one side, and John Kerry leading the way on the other. Speaking of 2004, John Edwards got your disease back then, real bad, and he kept going straight through this election cycle (not unlike those people who fail to take their trees down once Christmas is over), till just a few weeks ago. If he could quit, so can you; maybe he will even write a helpful how-to-recover book.
You will need all the help you can get, especially if your efforts are on the Democratic side. Not only does it look like both Sens. Clinton and Obama are going the distance, the distance may even be extended yet, if talk of new elections in Michigan and Floria becomes reality (not a bad idea, by the way).
Hang in there, and do try to keep things in perspective. As with any incipient crush, I know the candidate of your choice must seem like the end-all right now. To dial back your enthusiasm to more manageable proportions, it helps to close your eyes and picture your beloved candidate seven years on -- seven mind-numbing State of the Unions later -- embroiled in some outrageous scandal (they always are at that point) that will have you pulling your hair out and screaming at your TV set: "And I went without a winter coat for this!?"
By Andres Martinez |
February 12, 2008; 12:00 AM ET
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Next: A Stewart-Colbert Ticket?
Posted by: zyan | February 20, 2008 1:54 PM
I heard a comment the other day from a prominent minority leader that if Hillary were to attempt to gain the support of the so called super delegates it would make the 1968 Chicago convention look like a love fest. I'm not sure about how the super delegate system works, but it is a fact that Clinton won Michigan and Florida. Why should she not be entitled to the delegate count from these states. Suppose 20 other states were penalized for the same reason? Where would the Democrats be then? Let me state for the record that I am not a Hillary Supporter. My concern is that Obama appears to be too perfect. His message is refreshing as an air freshner used in a toilet to cover up the odor of you know what. He is smooth as a new born babys xxx. Too smooth. I listen to him and he says nothing. What about foreign policy? Where does he stand on the Palestinian issue? What does he plan to do with Iran? What is his stand on defense? Does he plan to weaken the military even further? What is his stand on taxes? With his social agenda will he come right out and say he will have to raise taxes. He says that pulling out of Iraq will be the fiscal salvation for all of his programs. Programs that were not affordable before we even heard of Iraq.
He is an eloquent smooth talker who is riding the coat tails of a very unpopular President and Obama himself I believe did not think that he would sweep the nation as he has. If he gets the nomination and is elected I don't think he has a clue. Unfortunately it will be put up time and his speeches will no longer count.
Posted by: ziggy1 | February 19, 2008 4:35 PM
I can rattle off quite a large list of people who will vote McCain if Hillary is the nominee.
Posted by: Michael | February 17, 2008 3:11 PM
Democrats are more divdided because of Howard Dean.
When I see Pakistanis risking their lives to vote I become angered at Pervez Musharraf. He will likely rig the vote and kill a few voters in the process.
Then I think of Howard Dean, who with the stroke of a pen denied Floridians the right to participate in chosing a potential presidential nominee.
Musharrif could get a few good lessons from Dean. Like how to create a rule that disqualifies the votes of two million people.
It's not about who benefits from ceding the delegates, or if the results of a new election would tip the scales in favor of any candidate. It's not about any agreements made between Hillary, John, and Barack in the primary not to acknowledge the voters and their appointed delegates. A citizen's vote is not a unit of measurement to be used as a poker chip in a game of chicken between the DNC and the Florida Democratic Party ; it's not about fairness to either of the candidates- they don't decide the fate of anyone's vote, and it's not about an internal dispute over a date on a calendar.
IT'S ABOUT THE RIGHT TO VOTE
People dying around the world to have their votes matter and participate in a Democracy.
Howard Dean and handfull of other people decided those rights don't matter here in the good old USA.
It's no wonder McCain's people are exploiting this and courting Clinton supporters in Florida and Michigan.
Shame on you Howard Dean, and shame on the Florida Democratic Party for creating this mess, and the need to use the Super Delegates at all.
You are the worst DNC Chairman in the history of the party.
It is no wonder you couldn't run an effective presidential campaign of your own.
Posted by: Danielle | February 17, 2008 3:02 PM
toraad, what experience does Hillary have over Barack? You forgot to mention he taught constitutional law for ten years, was a civil rights attorney, and president of the most prestigious law review journal in the world. Those books you dismiss cavalierly, he wrote himself, unlike Hillary who hired ghost writers. If you read Barack's books you would not doubt his maturity, common sense, wisdom, much less his judgment. Hillary's a hawk who came late to see her mistake in Iraq, is unsure of whether she can to talk to "enemies", follows Bush on Iran, and co-sponsored that stupid flag burning bill. Not one case could she cite of a flag being burnt to justify wasting her time and our taxes. Plus, the trouble she's determined to cause by reneging on her agreement with regard to FL and MI delegates, culminating in her unfair promise to have them seated in violation of the rules, marks her as untrustworthy and not a team player. I'll vote for her if she's the nominee, but seems the more the campaign drags on the less impressed Dems are with her and the more they are with Barack.
Posted by: jhbyer | February 15, 2008 3:15 AM
I donated over $500 to this campaign because I worry about my children's future. Please discuss this if possible.
---------------------
"Community Organizer for President"
He was a community organizer in an inner city Chicago. Then he wrote a book. Then he ran unopposed for the local state senate. Then he ran unopposed for a vacant Illinois state senate. And now he wants to be the president of the United States of America
The country is drifting from its historic path to an uncharted territory. Eight more years of experimentations and ill-conceived judgments even with good intentions could find our beloved United States unrecognizable and hard to correct. He said that he can not manage the nation but will hire good people.
In these times of the whole world is competing for our economy, jobs and livelihood it is very critical to methodically evaluate your choices and have the vision for future consequences. You must have the sound judgment and experience or we will find our selves in the richest third world country. With experience and competence come good judgment not just contents. But he will hire good people around him he said.
In the last few weeks the United States Navy had a close encounters with Russians fighter jets and Iranian navy boats in the Strait of Hormuz. One can restart the cold war with a nuclear nation and the other could stop the flow of most of the world's petroleum that could send the world into an economic recession and ciaos. Do you want a community organizer that can hire good people to navigate this?
The president we elect have to decide between differing consultants. He or she has to make a decision that the future of our nation and our children depends on. We need a president who will make the correct choices and keep this country prosperous and free and great as it always been. Please don't make us choose between an inexperienced community organizer and an opponent who supports the wrong war.
Lets take our country back and keep it the way it has always been, Great, Prosperous, Free, Strong and the beacon for freedom and democracy. I recommend you support Hillary Clinton now to lead the United States of America.
Thank You
Posted by: toraad | February 14, 2008 3:57 PM
Alex Epstein (below) wrote in reply to Fae, "DON'T QUIT. Democracy only works when citizens volunteer."
That is absolutely true. Voting, for all it's pushed as a civic duty, is individually far, far less important to our democracy than actually participating in politics.
Posted by: jhbyer | February 12, 2008 10:56 PM
I think I have the silver bullet for the GOP folks who hate McCain.
It is so simple.
Start by having Dick Cheney go around to all the think tanks claiming that he is certain there are WMD in Mexico.
Have FOX show endless images of "terrorists" who could have WMD crossing our border.
That should be enough to have McCain and the GOP call for the preemptive invasion of Mexico.
You get to mislead the American public, scare enough folks to have the GOP win the White House again in November, spend huge amounts on the military-industrial complex, and kill a lot of innocent Mexicans.
That is like a GOP dream, no?
Posted by: steveboyington | February 12, 2008 9:57 PM
To Barbara Blake - Do not assume that Clinton supporters will fall for Obama. I can rattle off a list of folks who will vote McCain if Obama is the Dem nominee. Obama supporters will be horribly mistaken to ever assume that we'll "settle" for Obama. Nope. No way.
Posted by: Christina | February 12, 2008 9:34 PM
To the person who can't quit volunteering: DON'T QUIT. Democracy only works when citizens volunteer. Is there anything more important than getting the right person elected President? I honor you for your commitment to the political process and to the candidates you support.
Posted by: Alex Epstein | February 12, 2008 7:04 PM
The Republican Party should be *far* more divided than it is, given their current leadership. The fact that so many go along with Bush and his enablers -- or just quietly look the other way -- is disappointing, to say the least.
Posted by: Bearpaw | February 12, 2008 5:30 PM
how can you say the rebublican candidates suck when the democratic candidates are clinton and obama...realistically speaking, they are two of the most unlikely people to actually become president; a woman (who is bill clintons wife. that should be enough) and a former muslim. what is the world coming to. but, of course they will get the votes from the easily persuaded liberals who think its cool that a woman and a former muslim are running for president, but they wont get enough votes. romney was undeniably the best candidate, that is, if your ignorance doesnt get in the way of realizing his accomplishments. of course, the worst republican candidates did make it to the end, mccain and huckabee, but mccain is still better than clinton and obama.
Posted by: zpm | February 12, 2008 5:22 PM
Party division is the effect of irreconcilable differences. Temporary differences subject to inevitable resolution don't constitute party division. So the headline "Which party is more divided" is like asking, "Which couple is more divorced?" The misuse of terms cripples discourse and leads to pointless debates.
Posted by: jhbyer | February 12, 2008 5:21 PM
I have never voted Democratic in my life, nor shall I this time. However, if Mr. McCain is indeed the Repub nominee, I'll be staying home. I'm socially & fiscally conservative, but not religious in the least.
Mr. McCain will talk about being a fiscal conservative, then the government will continue to grow.
The McCain-Feingold bill is one of the largest abridgements of the 1st Amendment in the history of the republic.
And last, but by no means least, he authored the thankfully failed "shamnesty" bill. He won't secure the border, but he WILL continue to advocate amnesty for 20 million illegals...with all the financial & social ramifications that entails. I don't want a commander-in-chief who selectively enforces the law which he has sworn to uphold.
I know what he says, but the look of contempt on his face for those who dared to oppose his attempted backroom deal told me all I need to know about the man.
I admire his military service for the nation, but his tenure as a politician has left a great deal to be desired, in my opinion.
Perhaps we need to suffer through 4 years of an Orwellian Socialist(Democratic) administration in order to get the Republican Party to give us a legitimately conservative candidate.
Posted by: Alienated Republican | February 12, 2008 4:35 PM
McCain isn't at 'odds with millions of Republican Voters' at all. That's bunk. The Republican voters were given huge propaganda by the Republican Taliban, and they didn't buy it. "Republicans only" elected him in New Hampshire and in Florida. Romney falsely claimed to be a conservative, but anyone who cares to look at the record in Pro-Gay and Pro-Abortion Mass will wake up. Decent Folk happen to like the war hero (McCain) and the Populist (Huckabee). The Republican Taliban has run out of reasons not to support either one of them. They're licked, ha ha, and they know it!
Posted by: Northern Dancer | February 12, 2008 3:28 PM
looking at how john kerry behaved, i felt so glad that he did not win in 04. i believe that people see thru guys like this easily. same goes with ted kennedy. they say obama is the jack kennedy of 2008, but would anyone want to see our country brought to the brink of facing nuclear strikes from USSR again? i do not appreciate JFK's lack of diplomatic skills, which, i believe, had led to the missile crisis as well as his own demise. for our beloved country, i prefer a person less dramatic, but more pragmatic...and most importantly, more stable and tested, so that we will feel sure that tomorrow we will still have what we have today, and maybe more. therefore, i don't think it is wise to take a leap of faith with obama.
Posted by: tony | February 12, 2008 2:08 PM
This is even affecting my dating life - all the hot babes I'm into are for Clinton, and I'm one of the lead people who's been pushing Obama locally.
It's hard not upsetting their feelings when I argue the Obama/Clinton decision online - and, of course, they're all reading what I say.
Sigh.
Posted by: Will in Seattle | February 12, 2008 2:03 PM
Clinton supporters will settle for Obama, but this not necessarily a two-way street. In a Clinton v. McCain matchup, it will be establishment v. establishment and the more honest and likable will win: McCain. (Sorry Clintonites, her negatives remain in the stratosphere and we're still in primary season.) Obama can at least differentiate from McCain on being the candidate of change. A tagline that Clinton has shoplifted from Obama a year too late.
Posted by: Barbara Blake | February 12, 2008 1:15 PM
Are you kidding me? Republicans absolutely HATE John McCain! Imagine that a sizable minority of your most loyal voters can't stand their own party's candidate? Since George The Not Very Bright only eked out a victory in 2004 with all hands on board, this does not bode well for his chances.
As well, greater than 70% of Obama and Clinton supporters would have no trouble voting for the other should they be the candidate. In short, the democrats have two candidates they like and the republicans have one that they don't.
Posted by: C. Feher | February 12, 2008 12:57 PM
One thing that unites the Republicans is that none of them are extolling the triumphs of the Bush administration.
The same old "cut taxes" prating, of course, and the ritual invoking of Ronald Reagan.
Though no one seems to recall that Reagan granted amnesty to those illegals...
Posted by: NorwegianBlue | February 12, 2008 11:55 AM
There are plenty of "hawkish Democrats", i.e. pro-defense globalists willing to commit American troops and resources in a truly just (i.e. defensive) cause. None of them think that the war in Iraq was a good idea, even the ones initially deceived by Bush's false claims of "weapons of mass destruction". A lot of Democrats regret the pointless dissipation of American strength in a non-strategic civil war in Iraq.
Posted by: Lart from Above | February 12, 2008 10:31 AM
Let's harness the excitement we're seeing among Democrats for BOTH amazing candidates. Sign the petition to Howard Dean and the DNC at http://www.16yearplan.com
Posted by: steven4 | February 12, 2008 10:23 AM
I wonder if Rove stay up very late writing all the "questions" for this column. I mean:
"Dear Stumped,
Of course we can ALL agree that Democrats are molesting idiots, but I was wondering why they will REALLY lose in November..."
Transparently leading questions are icky.
Posted by: Mobedda | February 12, 2008 7:16 AM
The belief that Clinton supporters will vote for a ticket without Hillary at the top of it is wrong.
We would rather give the keys to the country to a Republican moderate with experience that a far left neophyte who has a frenetic cult following.
On the day after the November election when McCain beats Obama, remember this post.
Posted by: Politicalpuck | February 12, 2008 7:11 AM
OK, Let's say this one more time:
The Repubs are divided because all their candidates suck and the Dems are torn between two great candidates.
In the beltway punditry cocktail party bubble, this is somehow the same thing. The difference is that when THE Dem nominee is decided, it will one of two great candidates whom all Dems can support - and the Repub candidates will still suck. See? It's no that complicated.
Posted by: wvining | February 12, 2008 5:26 AM
Yes I think the democrats are
more divided between the typical state assistance, grant, union supporting Clinton democrats and the Obama camp which looks to a 1ess paternalistic modern world in which Americans will enjoy life in a less guilt free manner and be less interested in running to the assitance of every island or fourth world country thats run amok. Possibly Americans should let the cards fall as they do outside the first world. But Republican divisions over McCain will increase as they realise he is a McArthur style patrician style militarist for god, country and the marines first. Possibly Massachusets Mitt would ahve been better.
Posted by: Robert Miles | February 12, 2008 1:58 AM
One solution for Ms. Jencks might be to use her volunteer experience as a spring board to a paid position to launch a career in political campaigning. She's thought of this, I'm sure, but it strikes me that her avidity is a marketable commodity. Making a living feeding her habit, her travel expenses would be paid. Although her salary might be less, she'd be doing what she loves. Her dedication is a true qualification. Organizations that employ armies of volunteers typically have one or more full-time paid coordinators of volunteers hired from the ranks.
Posted by: jhbyer | February 12, 2008 12:51 AM
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hi, the whole thing is so simple,
obama is another mcgovern,
wait for 30:70% in november
do not know, check history, or google,
anti-war, crazy, student support,...
obama is another copy of mcgovern
by the way, GOP are laughing to death