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Posted at 12:15 PM ET, 02/ 3/2011

Talkin' Terps: Predict Maryland's record in the home stretch

By Matt Bonesteel

So this happened last night. Probably best not to dwell on it too much.

Which, based on his postgame comments, is what Maryland Coach Gary Williams is telling his players today at practice. "We're 4-4 in the league, we've played Duke twice, we have eight league games plus another game -- nine games left," Williams said. "We have a chance to win those games."

So, based on the remaining schedule, predict the Terrapins' record the rest of the season.

Feb. 5: Wake Forest
Feb. 9: Longwood
Feb. 12: At Boston College
Feb. 15: At Virginia Tech
Feb. 20: North Carolina State
Feb. 23: Florida State
Feb. 27: At North Carolina
March 2: At Miami
March 5: Virginia

And, based on your prediction, do you believe an NCAA tournament bid is still a possibility, as Eric Prisbell does here?

By Matt Bonesteel  | February 3, 2011; 12:15 PM ET
Categories:  Men's basketball  
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Next: Better offensive rebounding a key for the Terps

Comments

Of course an NCAA bid is still a possibility. Get to 10 ACC wins and play well in the ACC tourney and we are in. We have to win our remaining home games (we are due at home after starting out 1-3 in the acc at comcast) and split our 4 road games at UNC, BC, Miami, and Vtech. I wouldn't bet against Gary in this situation.

This is one scenario

Feb. 5: Wake Forest W
Feb. 9: Longwood W
Feb. 12: At Boston College W
Feb. 15: At Virginia Tech L
Feb. 20: North Carolina State W
Feb. 23: Florida State W
Feb. 27: At North Carolina L
March 2: At Miami W
March 5: Virginia W

10-6

Posted by: Barno1 | February 3, 2011 12:26 PM | Report abuse

Here's hoping that the NIT isn't too hard this year. Just as long as we don't draw Manhattan.

What's that, we've lost 8 of the last 9 against Duke? For it to be a "rivalry" shouldn't we try to win more than 1 in 9?

Posted by: P00PY_MCP00P | February 3, 2011 12:36 PM | Report abuse

Of course there is always next year. That's when we'll really dominate.

Ah, the ole' wait till next year/we're rebuilding ruse.

Posted by: P00PY_MCP00P | February 3, 2011 12:38 PM | Report abuse

Still don't get what Mosley and Tucker bring to the team.

Grrrr......so mad at all the "favorable" calls Duke got from the refs last night. Grrrrrrrr

Posted by: P00PY_MCP00P | February 3, 2011 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Realistically, I would have to agree with Barno's breakdown. I do, however, think they have a good chance of stealing one in Blacksburg or Chapel Hill, which is what I think will be necessary for the Terps to lock up a bid before the ACC Tournament. I the Terps enter the ACC Tournament at 10-6 in conference, they'll have to win probably 2 games (one on Thursday against one of the bottom 4 and one on Friday against one of the top 4). 11-5 probably gives the Terps a first round bye in the tournament, meaning they'll be playing against a deparate team, which they could probably lose against and still claim an NCAA bid. 9-7, altogether possible if the Terps don't show up in Miami (something they've had trouble with in the past), probably means the Terps are NIT bound unless they can make it to the ACC Final. I just don't want to think about 8-8 right now, because I think this team is way better than that.

They key stretch is going to be the back to back road games in Boston and Blacksburg. If the Terps can get both of those, and remain focussed, I think they will be in good shape on selection Sunday.

Posted by: Russtinator | February 3, 2011 12:42 PM | Report abuse

Feb. 5: Wake Forest W
Feb. 9: Longwood W
Feb. 12: At Boston College W
Feb. 15: At Virginia Tech L
Feb. 20: North Carolina State W
Feb. 23: Florida State L
Feb. 27: At North Carolina W
March 2: At Miami W
March 5: Virginia W

---------------------

As for next year PmcP, I truly think we'll be Top 25 and there will be no doubt about making the tourny. But again, that's just my opinion. We lose three players - Gregory, Bowie and Tucker. From what they've shown this year, Bowie and Tucker can be replaced....easily. It's the loss of Gregory that is going to hurt us. He's been solid all-around this year and is our only true low post presence that takes pressure off of JW. Stoglin and Howard need to improve and become more consistent but I believe they will, they're freshman after all. Hopefully Mosley finds his stroke or Parkers game evolves. The most important people may not even be on the team yet. If Faust is the real deal then he instantly provides us a #2 option who can shoot from outside. This is a dire need for this team. Also, if Hubert commits to MD (instead of NC) then that would provide MD with another low post presence and could somewhat offset the loss of Gregory. Our only other hope for that would be the continued maturation of Padgett. Again, that's alot of ifs but I'm optimistic enough to think it will happen.

2011-2012
PG - Stoglin
SG - Faust
SF - Mosley
PF - Hubert
C - Williams

Bench
Howard
Paulsson
Parker
Weis
Gibbs

And only Mosley is a Senior next year. That's something to grow on.

Posted by: fushezzi | February 3, 2011 12:52 PM | Report abuse

Fushezzi,

I agree with your analysis, but that's all assuming JWill comes back next year. That's far from a certainty in my mind. The last mock draft I saw had JWill going to the Knicks as the 20th pick.

Posted by: acebojangles | February 3, 2011 1:11 PM | Report abuse

2011-2012
PG - Stoglin
SG - Faust
SF - Mosley
PF - Hubert
C - Williams

Bench
Howard
Paulsson
Parker
Weis
Gibbs

I'm not a big fan of looking ahead to next year while the Terps still have a legitimate chance at the dance, but this is pretty interesting. Hubert would be a big get, and may be necessary if JW decides to go pro at the end of this year. I don't know if Roy can even fit Hubert in with 3 guys already signed for the Tar Heels and only 3 seniors on the roster. Harrison Barnes is still not a lock to bolt for the NBA despite his improvement over the past couple of weeks, and while John Henson has improved over the past month, he's not going to be a lottery pick this year.

The one guy you're forgetting is Ashton Pankey, who could become a contributor on the front line next year after recovering from injury. Also, I see Weijs becoming a serious contributor next season based on Gary's track record of JUCO players stepping up in the second year in the program. This is projecting to be a pretty imposing team in 2011-12, if Gary can find the minutes to keep everyone happy. They're regularly going 9 deep now, and I could see this team 11 deep next season.

Posted by: Russtinator | February 3, 2011 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Russ, its sad we are looking to next year, but thats the state of our program, ugh!

So, I would say, if J Will goes pro, it would be the dumbest thing he could do. He needs to develp a mid range jumper to be effective at the next level as a power forward and he hasnt shown that at all. I am not just saying this because I want him to stay, just want him to get even better.....and stay :) He is not a true center at the next level and i think he would drop in the draft if he goes this year.

I hope we get Hubert, but its getting ugly according to Balt Sun., looks like more competition, ugh! Sounds like Faust is struggling too and its never a good idea to count on a freshman, no matter how good he sounds, look at UNC,,,well he is now looking pretty good.

I think we are looking at 2 NIT's, unless someone blows up. Then it wont just be me and Poopy asking for Gary's head.

Sucks that we are the team hoping to beat Duke every year and thats it,,,sounds like the Skins hoping to beat Dallas and thats it,,no playoffs or NCAA tourn. Wonder if Gary is going to sue a writer next haha!

Posted by: cm88 | February 3, 2011 1:50 PM | Report abuse

Feb. 5: Wake Forest W
Feb. 9: Longwood W
Feb. 12: At Boston College W
Feb. 15: At Virginia Tech L
Feb. 20: North Carolina State W
Feb. 23: Florida State L
Feb. 27: At North Carolina L
March 2: At Miami W
March 5: Virginia W

10-6, just like everyone else is predicting... not very interesting.

So everyone is writing of Padgett as a threat to start next season? He'll be a junior and he's gotten some respectable minutes in a few of the ACC games the Terps have played so far.

Posted by: NaptownTerrapin | February 3, 2011 1:50 PM | Report abuse

So everyone is writing of Padgett as a threat to start next season? He'll be a junior and he's gotten some respectable minutes in a few of the ACC games the Terps have played so far.

Posted by: NaptownTerrapin | February 3, 2011 1:50 PM | Report abuse

If he keeps playing defense like a lost puppy and shooting free throws like he's trying to hit the National Championship banner, he's not going to see any more time next season. Until he starts playing 5-6 minute stretches of solid basketball on both ends, I dont' see Gary giving him any more time then he's had so far.

Posted by: Russtinator | February 3, 2011 2:04 PM | Report abuse

rustinator. you must be in some sort of alternate universe

Posted by: slick3 | February 3, 2011 2:06 PM | Report abuse

gary williams is holding the university and fans hostage. its ashame we are going to have to put up with this garbage product for another 5-10 years. unless ka can force him out. my only hope

Posted by: slick3 | February 3, 2011 2:12 PM | Report abuse

So everyone is writing of Padgett as a threat to start next season? He'll be a junior and he's gotten some respectable minutes in a few of the ACC games the Terps have played so far.

Posted by: NaptownTerrapin | February 3, 2011 1:50 PM | Report abuse

If he keeps playing defense like a lost puppy and shooting free throws like he's trying to hit the National Championship banner, he's not going to see any more time next season. Until he starts playing 5-6 minute stretches of solid basketball on both ends, I dont' see Gary giving him any more time then he's had so far.

Posted by: Russtinator | February 3, 2011 2:04 PM | Report abuse

Russ - No argument there, just a lot can happen in 8 months and Gary is fond of rewarding players who have been in the system for a number of years. I mean, you didn't even put him on your bench...

Posted by: NaptownTerrapin | February 3, 2011 2:17 PM | Report abuse

The worst part of tough losses is the idiot convention that takes place on the blogs after every defeat. Seriously, where were you clowns last year during our ACC title season? You go into hiding when times are good then you come back from out of your caves when times are tough. Way to stick with your team through thick and thin. Thankfully the players and coaches don't quit on the season as easily as these "fans".

Posted by: Barno1 | February 3, 2011 2:26 PM | Report abuse

I think we'll go 7-2 down the stretch and slip into the Big Dance, but really, so what? It's not like we're getting anywhere near the Final 4.

Yes, I want us to get in and get some experience, and it'd be nice to maybe even win a game. Then JWilliams comes back next year and we can all dream. But as for this year... feh, I'm so done with it.

Posted by: spunkydawg1 | February 3, 2011 2:41 PM | Report abuse

"I think we'll go 7-2 down the stretch and slip into the Big Dance, but really, so what? It's not like we're getting anywhere near the Final 4."

Real Men of Genius

You know your team isn't winning the next 5 championships, so what's the point of even getting excited?

Posted by: Barno1 | February 3, 2011 2:45 PM | Report abuse

barno1. wow, the garmeister had one good year last season out of how many in recent years? they are nit bound again this season. and probably next season too.

Posted by: slick3 | February 3, 2011 3:37 PM | Report abuse

@Barno1
Typical over-the-top, non sequitur response from you.

Posted by: spunkydawg1 | February 3, 2011 3:40 PM | Report abuse

barno1. wow, the garmeister had one good year last season out of how many in recent years? they are nit bound again this season. and probably next season too.

Posted by: slick3 | February 3, 2011 3:37 PM | Report abuse

I think most people enjoyed the previous year as well, winning 3 post season games and knocking off the national champs in a classic OT game at Comcast. I think most fans also enjoyed the 06/07 team that won 25 games, beat Duke twice and UNC as well, and was ranked much of the season. That's 3 years out of the last 4 that were solid seasons.

If you're talking just post-championship seasons, I think the 02/03 team was solid, winning 11 ACC games and going to the sweet 16. I also think the 03/04 team was a lot of fun too, winning 4 post seasons games including the ACC tournament over Duke.

In fact, since the championship, the Terps have the best ACC record after Duke and UNC. So even in the "down" years, we are still a very solid program. But yeah, let's fire Gary.

Posted by: Barno1 | February 3, 2011 3:43 PM | Report abuse

@Barno1
Typical over-the-top, non sequitur response from you.

Posted by: spunkydawg1 | February 3, 2011 3:40 PM | Report abuse

Okay, let's ignore your comically improper use of "non sequitur" and go back to your original statement:

"I think we'll go 7-2 down the stretch and slip into the Big Dance, but really, so what? It's not like we're getting anywhere near the Final 4."

If anything is a non sequitur, it's not caring about your team unless they go to the final four. You do realize only 4 teams can go to the final four, correct? Just checking. That's 4 out of 346...are you sure you realize this?

So when you say we aren't making the final four, so "who cares"...that's pretty illogical. Or as some would put it, a non sequitur.

Posted by: Barno1 | February 3, 2011 4:07 PM | Report abuse

Spunky, if this posting board was a dance floor you would've gotten what we call "served."

That is all....carry on....

Posted by: fushezzi | February 3, 2011 4:15 PM | Report abuse

@Barno1
You do realize what the words "anywhere" and "near" mean, right?

But why am I arguing with you? You've got limited intelligence and unlimited time. Like Dan Snyder using his endless money to try to bury the City Paper, you use your unlimited time to wear down fellow posters, who eventually get tired of arguing with you, since you've always got another non sequitur up your sleeve.

Peace out.

Posted by: spunkydawg1 | February 3, 2011 4:19 PM | Report abuse

Spunky, if this posting board was a dance floor you would've gotten what we call "served."

That is all....carry on....

Posted by: fushezzi | February 3, 2011 4:20 PM | Report abuse

I just don't get why people have to question the "fandom" of others simply because they disagree with what they type here.

Posted by: P00PY_MCP00P | February 3, 2011 4:22 PM | Report abuse

Feb. 5: Wake Forest W
Feb. 9: Longwood W
Feb. 12: At Boston College L
Feb. 15: At Virginia Tech W (they will split this game and BC)
Feb. 20: North Carolina State W
Feb. 23: Florida State W
Feb. 27: At North Carolina L
March 2: At Miami W
March 5: Virginia W

This is the scenario I see unfolding and winning two in the ACC Tourney. Gary usually does pretty good right before the ACC Tourney. They will get in the Tourney, but probably another second round exit.

Posted by: mle916 | February 3, 2011 4:40 PM | Report abuse

Agreed Poop. Though I've done it in the past with people I really did suspect of being fans of our opponents (I still think there's a decent chance CM88 is a Duke fan posing as a MD fan). But I agree that questioning the fandom is not necessary...that's why it's so so amusing when people like CM88 come on here saying they are the "real fans" and that I am not a "real fan" because accept Gary Williams as my coach.

Posted by: Barno1 | February 3, 2011 4:40 PM | Report abuse

*because I accept Gary Williams as my coach

Posted by: Barno1 | February 3, 2011 4:45 PM | Report abuse

There are at least 6 wins for the Terps in the remaining games, with 5 of those being ACC wins. I don't see them losing any more at home, nor do I expect them to lose to Miami. If they steal game or two in their trips to BC, NC or VATech, they should be in. Once they're in . . . well, they'll likely be an 8 at best, so they'll need to find a couple of shooters to get out of the first round.

Posted by: MBP1 | February 3, 2011 4:48 PM | Report abuse

I'd rather be a 12 seed than an 8 or 9. Gary always wins the first round, so get that out of the way and we're playing a 4 seed most likely instead of a 1.

Posted by: Barno1 | February 3, 2011 4:57 PM | Report abuse

"*because I accept Gary Williams as my coach"

Hopefully you can bring some much needed shooting ability to the team.

Re: 12 seed v. 8/9. Might be unfair to the 5 seed that has to face GW's Terps in round 1.

Posted by: MBP1 | February 3, 2011 5:30 PM | Report abuse

If the Terps are an 8 or 9, that probably means they would have finished 11-5 and lost the first game of the ACC Tournament. The #1'a are all vulnerable this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if two don't make it to the sweet 16. You'd have to think if Duke runs the table, they'll earn a #1, and this Duke team is beatable on a neutral court. The other potential #1s are also beatable. Maryland probably should have beaten Pitt on a neutral court, and Ohio State will get beaten once they meet a team that can match them in the front court. The other potential #1's, Texas and SDSU, are both pretty streaky, and are both beatable.

I'd much rather take my chances against another bubble team (8/9) in the first round than a solid team like Purdue, G-Town, Washington, or Texas A&M in a 5/12 (assuming they don't end up in the "opening round" game against another bubbler like ODU, Penn State, or Cincy).

Posted by: Russtinator | February 3, 2011 5:46 PM | Report abuse

Feb. 5: Wake Forest W
Feb. 9: Longwood W
Feb. 12: At Boston College L
Feb. 15: At Virginia Tech L
Feb. 20: North Carolina State W
Feb. 23: Florida State L
Feb. 27: At North Carolina L
March 2: At Miami L
March 5: Virginia W

Seriously, this would not surprise me. How can anyone be positive after that (non) performance last night? I could be wrong about Miami but we play lousy down there. And NC State might win too. Before the Duke game I was very bullish and I realize that it was just wishful thinking. It's too early to talk about next year. Getting through this one will be hard enough. It's not fun at all. It's supposed to be fun.

Posted by: petecard | February 3, 2011 6:31 PM | Report abuse

the terps arent going to the tournament. they are just as likely to finish 8-8 as 10-6. they are not a good team.

Posted by: slick3 | February 3, 2011 6:32 PM | Report abuse

The Terps are going to have to go on a run that I really don't think is in them.. The NCAA's are just not in the cards this year.. WHY??? Going into this year, I really thought Tucker and Bowie would explode.. There were small signs last year, and I thought they would take the next step this year... wrong...Gregory is what he is, it's a 50/50 proposition with his game.. He tries, but it's not what we need on a regular basis.. We need a stud 4 to go with JW..Next year looks promising, but this year, we'll just have to settle with whatever happens.. But again, I think it's 3 letters, not 4.. Go Terps !!!

Posted by: frostanna | February 3, 2011 7:26 PM | Report abuse

50% from 3 point land and 80% from the line ane the Terps WIN all of them. They need to start shooting the 3 better. It is a waste of JW skills to not shoot better. Duke played hack a JW and MD did not make them pay. What was he 12-17 at the line.

Posted by: drlazor | February 3, 2011 7:59 PM | Report abuse

Feb. 5: Wake Forest W
Feb. 9: Longwood W
Feb. 12: At Boston College L
Feb. 15: At Virginia Tech L
Feb. 20: North Carolina State W
Feb. 23: Florida State L
Feb. 27: At North Carolina L
March 2: At Miami L
March 5: Virginia W

Seriously, this would not surprise me. How can anyone be positive after that (non) performance last night?

Posted by: petecard | February 3, 2011 6:31 PM | Report abuse

Petecard, after the Vtech game you thought we were done for the season, then after the UVA game you thought we'd lose to Gtech. After that win, you started talking sweet 16. Now after just one game, losing to the No. 5 team in the country, you're back to us going 7-9?

Posted by: Barno1 | February 3, 2011 8:55 PM | Report abuse

I'd prefer Maryland go into the NCAA tourney (not that it's likely this year) as a #1 or #2 seed.

But that's just me.

Posted by: P00PY_MCP00P | February 4, 2011 2:10 AM | Report abuse

Feb. 5: Wake Forest - (better be a) W
Feb. 9: Longwood -- W(ho cares)
Feb. 12: At Boston College - L
Feb. 15: At Virginia Tech - W (revenge)
Feb. 20: North Carolina State - W
Feb. 23: Florida State - W (defensive battle)
Feb. 27: At North Carolina - L
March 2: At Miami - W (Miami will be in a tailspin by then)
March 5: Virginia - W

10-6 in ACC play.

Two of those Ws (at Va. Tech. and Fla. State) will be tough. So 9-7 is feasible.

They will need some help to get in the NCAAs, either by at least 1-2 wins in the ACC tourney and/or not many surprise automatic qualifiers (e.g., Providence winning the Big East tourney).

Posted by: dc_attorney | February 4, 2011 7:19 AM | Report abuse

'd prefer Maryland go into the NCAA tourney (not that it's likely this year) as a #1 or #2 seed.

But that's just me.

Posted by: P00PY_MCP00P

I'm with the poopmeister!

Posted by: M20832 | February 4, 2011 8:26 AM | Report abuse

You are right Barno. I have no perspective. I feel punch drunk. My post GTech comments were delusional. Interesting that you didn't address my comments about this NOT being fun. Is anyone enjoying this season. It's getting close to unwatchable...

Posted by: petecard | February 4, 2011 9:51 AM | Report abuse

Is anyone enjoying this season. It's getting close to unwatchable...

When they play Wake Forest or Virginia...:)

Posted by: M20832 | February 4, 2011 11:38 AM | Report abuse

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