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Posted at 8:34 AM ET, 02/14/2011

NCAA tournament 2011: Where the local teams stand today

By Eric Prisbell

[Note: If you are planning to run an NCAA tournament office pool or a pool among friends, please contact me via e-mail. I'd like to hear from you about your pool. I'm not quoting you or anything; I'm just interested in your thoughts about an idea I have. prisbelle@washpost.com.
Thanks.]

This was a big weekend for the local teams. Let's look at where they stand now:

Georgetown
Record: 20-5
RPI: 4
SOS: 2
Vs. top 50: 8-5
Vs. top 100: 13-5
Best win: St. John's (17)
Worst loss: at Temple (33)
Road-neutral court: 10-3
As of today: No. 2 or No. 3 seed
Comment: When you rack up eight straight wins in this Big East Conference, that is a pretty good sign you are doing something right. This league can humble even very good teams - look at Syracuse. The Hoyas have a chance to climb to a No. 1 seed because four of their five remaining regular season games are against potential NCAA tournament teams. That's not even counting the Big East tournament. But the Hoyas are going to need Pittsburgh to lose a few games or Ohio State, Texas or Kansas to drop a few more for that to occur. And there is no certainty that will happen. Another hot Big East team, Notre Dame, is also a potential No. 2 seed. Duke also looks like a No. 2. Brigham Young and San Diego State are also in the mix for No. 2 seeds. Comparing the resumes of BYU/San Diego State can be subjective because Georgetown has more losses than those two combined but has played a tougher schedule.

Maryland
Record: 16-9
RPI: 89
SOS: 81
Vs. top 50: 0-8
Vs. top 100: 3-9
Best win: at Penn State (63)
Worst loss: Virginia Tech (66)
Road-neutral court: 4-6
As of today: not close to being in the tournament
Comment: The Boston College game was virtually a must-win affair, and Maryland did not win. There are still two ways for the Terrapins to reach the NCAA tournament. The first is to win the ACC tournament and claim the league's automatic berth. The second is to claim one of the 37 at-large berths. The chances of the second scenario occurring are slim for a couple of reasons: Maryland's resume lacks any substance. Only three top 100 victories are not going to cut it for a power conference team. Some of the fringe mid-major at-large candidates have three top 100 wins because their schedule is not as strong. The real black mark is a 6-9 record against top 200 RPI teams. It is extremely difficult to get in with a sub-.500 record against top 200 teams. The other problem is that Maryland plays just one top 50 RPI team the rest of the way - at North Carolina. Even a victory against Florida State won't look as impressive now that Chris Singleton is out. Maryland needs to win at least four of its remaining regular season games and then make an ACC tournament run, probably to the final.

Virginia Tech
Record: 16-7
RPI: 66
SOS: 98
Vs. top 50: 1-5
Vs. top 100: 7-5
Best win: Florida State (50)
Worst loss: at Georgia Tech (176)
Road-neutral court: 7-5
As of today: bubble, barely in the field
Comment: We've talked about it before. The Hokies have two bad losses - Virginia and Georgia Tech. And they lack a true quality victory. The Florida State win is a good one, not a great one. The Oklahoma State win is a good one, not a great one. If the season ended today, there could be some anxious moments but I think the Hokies would get in. They should be thankful it is a 68-team field this season. They still play Virginia and Wake Forest. They can't afford to lose either game. And a win over Boston College would help. But they could go a long way toward cementing a berth with a win over Duke.

George Mason
Record: 21-5
RPI: 23
SOS: 74
Vs. top 50: 2-1
Vs. top 100: 7-4
Best win: Old Dominion (29)
Worst loss: Wofford (156)
Road-neutral court: 8-5
As of today: No. 8 or No. 9 seed
Comment: The Patriots have won 11 straight games, all but one by double digits. What more can you do? They are surging and sneaking up on no one at this point. They are acknowledged by most as the best team in the CAA and would be rewarded with a respectable NCAA tournament seed if the season ended today. How high can the Patriots rise? They will have a ceiling because the regular season schedule doesn't offer any more games against top 50 competition. The Bracket Buster game at Northern Iowa won't help that much because UNI has lost three straight games. Mason also plays at Virginia Commonwealth on Tuesday in another big game this week.

By Eric Prisbell  | February 14, 2011; 8:34 AM ET
 
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Next: NCAA tournament 2011: Michigan State, Kansas State on bubble

Comments

ODU, Richmond, VCU all more "local" than VT.

Posted by: ChoppinBroccoli | February 14, 2011 11:17 AM | Report abuse

GO, MASON!

"Junior!"

Posted by: WaPoPimp | February 14, 2011 12:00 PM | Report abuse

ODU, Richmond, VCU all more "local" than VT.

Posted by: ChoppinBroccoli | February 14, 2011 11:17 AM

Keep screaming at that brick wall

Posted by: Kev29 | February 14, 2011 2:20 PM | Report abuse

I think we are in store for a great game tomorrow night in Richmond. Go Mason!

Posted by: agalcius | February 14, 2011 3:11 PM | Report abuse

Okay, maybe the Spiders and ODU don't count, but how is Va Tech included and not UVA? It's half the drive to Charlottesville, and DC is crawling with UVA grads. Are we just talking about good teams? And if so, why include Maryland?

Last point, if VT is on the bubble, how could you think they are getting in? They need to be a solid 6 to get in to the tournament, they never get in when they're on the bubble.

Posted by: dwelkinor | February 15, 2011 6:36 AM | Report abuse

Okay, maybe the Spiders and ODU don't count, but how is Va Tech included and not UVA? It's half the drive to Charlottesville, and DC is crawling with UVA grads. Are we just talking about good teams? And if so, why include Maryland?

Posted by: dwelkinor | February 15, 2011 6:36 AM

Maryland is still considered a bubble team - Virginia is not.

Posted by: Kev29 | February 15, 2011 12:05 PM | Report abuse

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