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Posted at 9:37 AM ET, 03/10/2011

NCAA tournament 2011: Alabama, VCU among first teams out

By Eric Prisbell

(Really busy day, but I'd love to hear which team you're thinking of picking to win the national championship this season and which team could be a sleeper. Drop me a quick email: prisbelle@washpost.com.)

Prediction: This is the last day the following groups of teams will look like this. We're likely to see some shuffling - and hopefully some clarity - after today's zaniness sure to ensue.

Last four in:
St. Mary's (22-8)
Good: Beat St. John's
Bad: Unsightly loss to San Diego; only three top 100 wins

Michigan State (16-13)
Good: Beat Wisconsin; seventh toughest schedule
Bad: 3-9 vs. top 50 teams; 13 losses; 3-8 in road games

Virginia Tech (19-10)
Good: Beat Duke
Bad: Thought season was over with Duke win; three questionable losses

Colorado (19-12)
Good: 5-6 vs. top 50
Bad: 3-9 on road; 318th-ranked non-league schedule; losing record vs. top 200

First four out:
Alabama (20-10)
Good: 12-4 SEC record
Bad: 4-7 vs. top 100; 281st-ranked non-league schedule

Virginia Commonwealth (23-11)
Good: Won at Old Dominion
Bad: Lost at Georgia State

Penn State (16-13)
Good: Beat Wisconsin; fifth-strongest schedule
Bad: 3-8 on road; lost to Maine

Southern California (18-13)
Good: 5-4 vs. top 50; won at Tennessee, at Washington
Bad: Three losses to sub-200 RPI teams

Next few out:
Memphis (22-9)
Good: Swept UAB
Bad: Two sub-175 RPI losses

Texas-El Paso (22-8)
Good: Not much
Bad: Two sub-150 RPI losses

Colorado State (18-11)
Good: Won at UNLV
Bad: 1-6 vs. top 50; two sub-160 RPI losses

New Mexico (19-11)
Good: Swept UNLV
Bad: 254th-ranked schedule; lost at Wyoming

Washington State (19-11)
Good: Swept Washington
Bad: 2-6 vs. top 50

Multi-bid Leagues
Big East (11 teams)
Big 12 (6)
Big Ten (6)
ACC (6)
SEC (5)
Pac-10 (3)
A-10 (3)
MWC (3)
WCC (2)
CAA (2)

By Eric Prisbell  | March 10, 2011; 9:37 AM ET
 
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Next: NCAA tournament 2011: Updated 68-team tournament field projection

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