The Fix

Judge Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation hearings begin next week. (AFP Photo/Tim Sloan)

The Senate Judiciary Committee will begin its week-long confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor on Monday, which, although their outcome is as close to a foregone conclusion as we get in Washington, are certain to blot out the sun in the political world for the next seven days or so.

The political pause comes at a fascinating time in Washington.

President Obama is facing significant obstacles with the economy continuing to struggle and his health care plan still mired in the Senate Finance Committee.

National Republicans are growing more optimistic about the fate of their party despite scandals featuring two former 2012 hopefuls -- South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and Nevada Sen. John Ensign -- and the puzzlement caused by the recent resignation announcement of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

Assuming that the Sotomayor hearings contain no juicy revelations that threaten her seemingly certain confirmation, the most interesting thing to keep an eye on next week will be how the media onslaught of the Court story affects how the other major Washington narratives -- health care, the economy, Republican resurgence -- are covered.

At first glance, the break provided by next week's Sotomayor hearings seems to benefit Obama who has spent his week abroad dealing with problems with his domestic agenda.

If the Sotomayor hearings come off without a hitch -- Democrats roundly supportive, Republicans cautiously challenging -- Obama will likely emerge from the week stronger than when he entered it.

Republicans will have an interesting choice to make as it relates to their messaging over the next seven days. Do they go full bore after Sotomayor in an attempt to placate their base? Or do they stay focused almost exclusively on the economy and the economic stimulus package, running the risk that such a choice could be seen by some within the party as giving Sotomayor a pass?

Supreme Court confirmation hearings are appointment viewing in Washington. (One needs only to think back to Robert Bork or Anita Hill to know why.) But, with Sotomayor a near-lock for confirmation, keep an eye on how both parties handle the issues pushed out of spotlight for the next week or so.

File photo - Sen. Roland Burris ( D-Ill.) on Capitol Hill, June 24, 2009. (AP/Susan Walsh)

Illinois Sen. Roland Burris (D) will not seek a full term in 2010, according to an informed Democratic strategist, a decision that was all-but-certain given the appointed senator's ties to former governor Rod Blagojevich.

Burris had refused to make any commitment about his future plans until today although his ever-changing story regarding his relationship with the disgraced former governor and his non-existent fundraising during the first three months of the year led savvy strategists to conclude he would not (or could not) run.

The race had passed Burris by with speculation centering on whether or not Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) would run. (She decided against doing so earlier this week.)

With Burris formally out of the race, the Democratic slate is likely to come down to state Treasurer Alexi Giannnoulias and Merchandise Mart CEO Chris Kennedy. Republicans face the possibility of a primary of their own with Rep. Mark Kirk in the race and Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna weighing a bid.

While Burris's retirement has little practical impact on the race -- for the reasons mentioned above -- it does save the White House and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee a potential headache since they would almost certainly not have supported Burris in the primary, a move that could have led some in the African American community to question the party's motives.

That's the percentage of voters who believe that President Obama lacks a "clear plan for solving this country's problems" in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll.

Since a February CNN poll, that number has risen nine points while those who believe Obama does have a plan to solve the nation's problems has dropped from 64 percent to 53 percent.

Remember that Obama was elected in large part on two basic ideas: "the vision thing" and what we have affectionately taken to calling the "cult of competence."

Obama, with little legislative experience to lean on when he began running for president in early 2007, instead based his campaign around the twin ideas of "hope" and "change." His critics decried this as nothing more than a rhetorical flourish but voters responded to the idea that Obama's non-traditional background might allow him to break the code for how to make Washington work again.

Couple that with Obama's steadiness and emphasis on elevating the best and brightest -- regardless of party affiliation or past differences -- and you begin to see why the fact that 45 percent of Americans believe he lacks a plan to solve the country's problems is a potentially serious problem for Obama and Democrats in Congress.

Obama was elected -- at least in part -- on the idea that he was the anti-George Bush, a big thinking intellectual who surrounded himself with people of similar ilk and, therefore, could be trusted to with dragging the country out of its doldrums.

The American public took a calculated risk on Obama, opting for change over experience. If public confidence in Obama's ability to lead the country in the right direction wanes, expect his job approval numbers -- and Democrats' electoral successes -- to follow soon behind.

Nevada Sen. John Ensign has acknowledged his parents gave his mistress nearly $100,000. AP Photo by Ron Edmonds

Nevada Sen. John Ensign has acknowledged that his parents paid his mistress and her family $96,000 in April 2008, according to a statement made by his attorney moments ago.

"After the Senator told his parents about the affair, his parents decided to make the gifts out of concern for the well-being of long-time family friends during a difficult time," said Paul Coggins, counsel to Ensign.

Coggins added that Ensign never used official money or campaign funds to make the payments. "None of the gifts came from campaign or official funds nor were they related to any campaign or official duties," said Coggins. "Senator Ensign has complied with all applicable laws and Senate ethics rules."

Ensign's father, Mike, is a well-heeled casino executive, having left his post as chairman of the Mandalay Resort Group in 2005. Ensign's father took $29 million in stock options when he left in 2005 and two years earlier had cashed out $103 million worth of stock.

Ensign's acknowledgment comes less than 24 hours after Jon Ralston, the king of Nevada political reporters, sat down with Doug Hampton -- the husband of Ensign's mistress -- who made a string of allegations including that Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn had tried unsuccessfully to force Ensign to end the affair.

Ensign has insisted he has no plans to resign his office, telling the Las Vegas Sun today that "I always planned on serving and working hard -- working harder than I ever worked -- and I'm going to continue to do that."

As we have written before (in relation to one Mark Sanford), stories like this one often spiral out of control of the person at the center of the storm. Ensign had weathered the initial bad press surrounding his affair but this detail may be too much.

Much more to come....

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's fundraising take makes him clear frontrunner in Senate race. AP Photo by Alan Diaz

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) collected more than $4 million in his first quarter of active fundraising for the state's open Senate seat race, an eye-popping total that may well effectively end his primary fight against former state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

Crist announced earlier today that he had collected $4.3 million in just 50 days of active fundraising between his formal entry into the race on May 12 and the end of the period on June 30.

He proclaimed himself "humbled" by the amount of support in a release touting the numbers. "I take their support seriously and continue to work every day to honor the trust and confidence they have placed in me," Crist added.

In a vacuum, Crist's number -- while very impressive -- isn't all that surprising. Crist proved his fundraising ability during his 2006 run for governor when he collected $14 million in the primary and another $20 million in the general election to financially overwhelm his opponents in each race.

But, the import of Crist's fundraising is made clearer when compared to the paltry $340,000 raised by Rubio during the same time frame.

Rubio and his team have cast the race as a fight for the heart and soul of the Republican party but given the fundraising totals for the two candidates it's shaping up more like a walkover.

(The Fix was in only one legitimate fight in our entire life. Lucas Anderson was the combatant's name; the entire sixth grade of our elementary school agreed it was a tie.)

The Rubio team -- doing the best they can without much to work with -- stuck to their basic argument that this is a race about ideology, not money.

"Charlie Crist will need to spend every last cent trying to convince voters that his support for wasteful stimulus spending, cap-and-trade schemes, tax increases and liberal judges are acceptable Republican practices," said Rubio spokesman Alex Burgos.

Here's the problem with that logic. If Crist raises and spends $15 million on the primary and Rubio raises and spends $2 million (or less), then primary voters will hear the Crist case (a common sense conservative who is right on social issues) a whole heck of a lot more than they will hear Rubio's case against him.

Add to that the fact that Crist begins the primary far better known statewide than Rubio and you begin to get the sense that this race is over before it ever really started -- unless, of course, Rubio can find a way to make a major bounce-back in the next fundraising quarter.

FDR. A Hall of Famer? AP Photo

When we unveiled the Fix Political Hall of Fame a few weeks ago, e-mails poured in castigating us for not putting former president Franklin Roosevelt in our inaugural class. (Heck, even the Post political eminence Dan Balz beat us up for not putting FDR in on the first ballot.)

FDR is regularly ranked as one of the best presidents of all time -- a recent Gallup poll put him in fourth -- and he spent more time in the White House than any one before or since.

So, today we aim to turn those catcalls into meows with our case for why FDR deserves a spot in the hallowed halls. (Make sure to read our case for and case against Richard Nixon's entry into the Hall of Fame.)

Huge Challenges, Huge Solutions

At certain times in history, the man and the moment collide with fortuitous benefits for the country. So it was for American when Roosevelt was elected the 32nd president of the United States in 1932.

The country was in the grips of the Great Depression when Roosevelt took office and he acted swiftly, engaging in a flurry of activity aimed as much at restoring public confidence as at jumpstarting the economy. He promised bold, persistent experimentation and was good to his word.

Even as the policies began to show signs of improving the nation's fiscal well-being, President Roosevelt continued to act to further broaden the government's role in Americans' lives -- creating Social Security and the Work Projects Administration in 1935.

With domestic tranquility at least partially restored, Roosevelt turned his attention to Europe where World War II had begun in earnest. The bombing of Pearl Harbor in late 1941 turned Roosevelt -- and the U.S. -- from a behind-the-scenes participant in the conflict into a major combatant and, much like he had done with the Great Depression, Roosevelt threw all the powers of government into the war effort to help the U.S. achieve victory.

Presidencies are often made (or broken) by the chief executive's response to major and/or unforeseen crises during his time in office. For some, like George W. Bush and Hurricane Katrina, these events can badly wound their standing. For others, like Roosevelt, they can prove the mettle of the man.

During his 12 years in office, Roosevelt led the nation through, arguably, its most difficult domestic and foreign policy struggles of the 20th century. That's quite an accomplishment.

North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper, New York Rep. Carolyn Maloney, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak. Photos by Chuck Burton of AP, Bloomberg News, M.Spencer Green opf AP and George Widman of AP

The White House's vaunted political operation has struggled in the early months of the 2010 cycle to convince coveted candidates to make runs for the Senate and to clear out contested primaries for vulnerable incumbents.

The decision on Wednesday by Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan not to run for the Senate came after a strong recruitment push by the White House that included a sitdown last month with President Obama, chief of staff Rahm Emanuel and senior adviser Valerie Jarrett.

Emanuel was even quoted as saying that Madigan was the "800-pound gorilla" in the race and the "most popular figure in the state of Illinois."

Madigan's no-go comes roughly two months after North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper resisted a personal plea from the president to make a race against Sen. Richard Burr in 2010. Since Cooper's decision, Democrats have struggled to find a credible candidate against Burr.

The White House also has been unable to clear Senate primaries for their preferred candidates in two instances: New York and Pennsylvania.

In New York, the White House looked to have scored a victory when Rep. Steve Israel announced he would not take on appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in next year's primary after receiving a call from Obama asking him to stay out.

But, Rep. Carolyn Maloney stepped into void created by Israel's departure and has already brought on Democratic consultants to guide her run for the Senate.

And, in Pennsylvania, the White House's endorsement of party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter has done little to dissuade Rep. Joe Sestak from a near certain primary challenge.

"From the outside, it just looks half-hearted," said one senior Democratic strategist of the White House recruiting efforts to date.

Another party elder, granted anonymity to speak freely, said that the White House was "doing fine" on the political side of the ledger but added: "Clearly it's not their first priority like it was with George Bush."

In the Obama White House's defense, recruiting is a fickle mistress as it depends heavily on factors outside of any administration's control: the candidate's own vision for his or her political future, family considerations and the political climate.

Madigan, for example, clearly prefers being governor to serving in the Senate and likely only considered the Senate contest due to urgings from the White House and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Still, the White House receives plaudits when a candidate decides to run at the urging of senior administration officials so they have to weather the consequences when candidates say no as well.

The 2010 cycle is still in its early stages. And, there remains a possibility that neither Maloney nor Sestak will ultimately pull the trigger on their respective races. If that happens, the political power of the White House could look drastically different.

For the moment, however, the team that beat Hillary Clinton in a primary and then overwhelmingly elected the nation's first black president last year hasn't been able to recreate that magic in downballot contests.

Whether that's the result of disinterest, bad luck or intangibles remains to be seen.

That's the percent of independent voters who approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing, according to Gallup polling conducted over the past month.

Obama's numbers among independents are down slightly from Gallup polling in January (62 percent approve) but consistent with where he stood in March (59 percent) and April (60 percent).

As long as Obama's job approval numbers stay in the 55 percent plus range among independents, the Administration is not likely to make any major course corrections.

Independents have been acting like -- and voting with -- Democrats for the past two elections and, without a major erosion among that critical voting bloc, Obama is on very solid ground as he looks toward 2012.

Increasing dissatisfaction with the state of the economy and the increases in government spending under Obama have the potential to turn independent voters against the current Administration, however, and, if that happens, it could be very problematic for Democrats in the coming midterm elections.

Keep an eye on how independents view the job Obama is doing as the 2010 election nears. It's a good indicator of the political prognosis for each party.

Fred Malek has emerged as the leading defender of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Photo by Nikki Kahn of the Washington Post

Fred Malek is, by his own admission, loyal to a fault.

"My strength is loyalty, my downfall is loyalty," Malek acknowledged in a recent interview with the Fix. "I'm the guy who waved goodbye to [former President Richard] Nixon from the White House lawn."

It is that sense of loyalty that has led Malek, a prominent Republican rainmaker, to emerge as the leading defender of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in the wake of the 2008 election where she served as the party's vice presidential nominee.

Palin's surprise resignation last week has made Malek a wanted man -- one of a coveted few in Washington who have a relationship with the Alaska governor.

Malek insisted that "everybody is trying to over-analyze" Palin's resignation, attributing it either to a need to escape ethics charges or as part of a grand plan to position herself for a presidential run in 2012.

"She's not that calculating," said Malek. He added that viewing Palin's resignation through the 2012 lens is a mistake.

Just hours after Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan took herself out of the running for the seat held by Sen. Roland Burris (D), Rep. Mark Kirk (R) has begun telling influential folks in Washington that he will make the race.

Kirk is widely regarded as the strongest candidate Republicans can field given his proven ability to win votes in a Democratic leaning district and his fundraising prowess.

Kirk has held the 10th district, which went for President Barack Obama with 61 percent in 2008, since 2000 and has beaten back several serious challenges during that time.

He had been expected to make the race for months but backed off when Madigan made it clear she would consider the race.

Kirk starts the race in impressive financial shape after raising $580,000 between April 1 and June 30. He began July with $1.1 million in the bank.

National Republicans seem likely to line up behind Kirk although Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna is in Washington today meeting with people about a possible candidacy, according to a D.C. source familiar with the visit.