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House Democrats move to hold Hawaii seat

1. Fearful that a divided Democratic party could allow Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to emerge victorious in the May 22 all-party special election in Hawaii's 1st district, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has gone on television questioning the Republican's credibility on the jobs issue.

The ad, which was produced by David Dixon, calls Djou's record "troubling", noting that he "signed a pledge that protects tax breaks for companies who send jobs overseas. . . . Hawaii needs a congressman on our side," says the narrator.

(Worth noting: Using the word "congressman" in their ad suggests the DCCC may be sending a signal of support for former representative Ed Case over state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa -- the two Democratic candidates running -- although no formal endorsement has yet been issued.)

The DCCC ad is a sign of the growing concern among party insiders that the seat, which went for President Obama with 70(!) percent in 2008, is in serious jeopardy. Djou has been on television for several weeks with ads touting himself as a non-partisan problem solver while Democrats continue to litigate the Case-Hanabusa feud.

A loss in either the Hawaii special or the special election to replace late Rep. John Murtha (D) in Pennsylvania on May 18 would almost certainly be painted as an omen of a difficult midterm election for Democrats.

Conversely, if House Republicans can't pull off a win in either race -- that would make seven straight competitive special elections won by Democrats -- it's hard for the GOP to make the case that momentum is building behind the party.

Neither contest has drawn much national attention just yet but both have the potential to have wide-ranging consequences. It's just 41 days until the Pennsylvania race and 45 days until Hawaii. Mark your calendars.

2. Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk (R) will report raising $2.2 million in the first three months of this year, a staggeringly strong total that comes as his opponent in the Senate race -- state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) -- continues to weather negative stories about his family's troubled bank.

To date, Kirk has collected $6.6 million for the race and closed March with just over $3 million in the bank. Giannoulias's fundraising numbers for the first quarter of the year were not available at press time but as of Jan. 13 he had collected $3.6 million for the race and retained $963,000.

Both men won primary races on Feb. 2 although Giannoulias's was the more serious contest as he bested former Chicago inspector general David Hoffman
39 percent to 34 percent.

Since that win, however, Giannoulias has been hamstrung by Broadway Bank, a family-owned enterprise that is in dire financial straits. The latest story came on April 1 when the Chicago Tribune reported that the bank had loaned $20 million to two felons while Giannoulias served as a senior loan officer.

Kirk's outstanding fundraising and Giannoulias's struggles have made this a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans despite the fact that Illinois is not only one of the most Democratic states in the country but also President Obama's political backyard.

3. The Republican field preparing to run against Sen. Russ Feingold (D) this fall is expected to grow in the near future as former Wisconsin commerce secretary Dick Leinenkugel will announce his candidacy, according to sources briefed on the matter. Leinenkugel, whose family founded the beer company that bears his last name, resigned his post in Gov. Jim Doyle's (D) Administration on Tuesday -- citing his desire to seek other opportunities.

Republican insiders expect Leinenkugel, who was appointed to his current post in September 2008, to enter the Senate race, joining developer Terrence Wall in the GOP primary. But, sources suggest that Leinenkugel's entry has no bearing on former governor Tommy Thompson's decision on whether to enter the contest.

Thompson, who was elected to four terms as governor, would be Republicans' strongest candidate, according to a new poll conducted by St. Norbert's College (great name) for Wisconsin Public Radio. It showed Thompson leading Feingold 45 percent to 33 percent; Feingold had a 40 percent to 37 percent edge over Wall in that same survey.

Aides close to Thompson say he will make his decision prior to the state Republican convention in early May. No one seems to know which way Thompson is leaning although most informed speculation seems to suggest he will take a pass.

If Thompson runs, national Republicans will have succeeded in once again broadening the playing field of competitive contests -- just as they did with the recruitment of former senator Dan Coats in Indiana.

4. Former U.S. District Court judge Brian Sandoval (R) has launched the first television ads of his primary challenge to Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons.

The ad, entitled "Together," is a basic biographic spot driving home Sandoval's credentials as a former state attorney general and federal judge. He speaks directly to the camera much of the commercial, telling viewers that "our best days are ahead of us" and adding: "It's time to roll up our sleeves and get Nevada working again."

The tagline of the ad -- "A reason to believe again" -- is a not-so-subtle repudiation of Gibbons whose first term has been badly marred by a series of ethics questions that have made him persona non grata with most of the state's voters.

Sandoval's ad hits the airwaves in advance of what Jon Ralston, the king of Nevada politics, reports will be a well funded independent expenditure on television by a the Committee to Protect Nevada Jobs -- a group with strong Democratic ties that aims to weaken Sandoval in advance of the state's June 8 primary.

The goal is to help Gibbons finish first, a result that would almost certainly hand the race to Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid (D) in the fall.

5. Most press releases that land in the Fix inbox are erased within seconds. (Sorry, but it's true!). Occasionally though a release catches our eye for its creativity and sheer inventiveness.

Such was a release from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee that congratulated former Indiana senator Dan Coats for Duke's win Monday night in the NCAA men's basketball championship game.

Yes, Coats is from Indiana -- home state of the Butler Bulldogs who fell just short in Monday's tournament finals to Duke. But, Coats, during in the fall of 2008 told a group of North Carolinians that he planned to retire to the Tarheel State.

"Given Dan Coats' affection for all things North Carolina, we suspect he was celebrating last night's victory over Butler," said DSCC communications director Eric Schultz. "With his heart and his home in North Carolina, we hope he's able to watch all of Duke's games next season in person."

Well played.

By Chris Cillizza  |  April 7, 2010; 6:01 AM ET
 
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Next: Handicapping the (next) RNC Chair race

Comments

Sometimes I have misgivings about leaving the USA. To move to an extremely foreign country with a hot climate, a difficult language, a stressful move, a difficult adaptation to a very different culture, the risk of failure .. once in a while it leaves me in a panic.

Then I think of the changes in the USA since 1980, the racist and xenophobic hate that gets worse every year, the raw rage and sickness coming out of the right-wing fever swamps, the sickness and wrongness and pure ugliness I read here in these pages .. even the unmoored amorality coming from our sycophantic "gracious host" ... and the real fear isn't in moving to Việt Nam, but in remaining here after the hate rhetoric turns to the assassination and domestic terrorism that we all know is coming.

The right wing posters here are mental cases, sure, but they're smack in the middle of right wing politics here. In other words, close to half of my fellow countrymen are stark raving f ucking nuts. I don't feel safe turning my back on them. Throwing bricks through windows and sending assassination threats to public figures is but one step away from throwing bricks AT public figures and bombs going off in crowds ... to protest healthcare reform?!?

I'd be an idiot to stay here when I have the means to leave.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 8, 2010 12:27 AM | Report abuse

Someone jog 37th. I think the disc is stuck again.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | April 7, 2010 7:13 PM | Report abuse

NOW Obama is about to leave the country - so they are floating the idea of a NATIONAL SALES TAX ON TOP OF THE LARGEST TAX INCREASE IN AMERICAN HISTORY.

OBAMA got his health care plan - never saying how he was going to PAY for it.

All the time, Obama said the health care plan was PAID FOR. Obama LIED IN FRONT OF CONGRESS. This is an IMPEACHABLE OFFENSE.


OBAMA LIED

OBAMA LIED

OBAMA LIED

OBAMA LIED

OBAMA LIED.

.


.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 7:04 PM | Report abuse


IS AN OMAMA 'TRUE JUSTICE SQUAD' QUIETLY WORKING TO RESTORE CIVIL AND HUMAN RIGHTS?

Is an Eric Holder DOJ "True Justice Squad" keeping book on rogue Bush holdovers across the bureaucracy...

as some Bushie leave-behinds continue to oversee secret multi-agency programs of covert microwave torture, vigilante harassment and financial sabotage of extrajudicially and unjustly "targeted" American citizens...

...many targeted for their politics, activism, or ethnic background?

Vic Livingston reports -- see latest comments to:

http://nowpublic.com/world/u-s-govt-uses-cbs-news-cover-microwave-cell-tower-torture
http://NowPublic.com/scrivener

Posted by: scrivener50 | April 7, 2010 6:35 PM | Report abuse

"Of New Jersey, SISSD writes ...we are tired of being the laughing stock of the country... Good luck with that fella, we're still laughing at you. Ending corruption by switching parties, you are funny. Oh yeah and Republicans will stop illegal migration too, hahhahaahahaha, stop it, I can't breathe. Posted by: shrink2"

Better get oxygen by the tanker load, because when NJ has to RAISE taxes to avoid having a deficit, it will have to be the un-Corzine who has to sign the bill, and that bit of justice will be one of the great laugh lines of all times.

Posted by: ceflynline | April 7, 2010 5:44 PM | Report abuse

'On the contrary dribbl. I have a conference at the Military Academy coming up. '

what a hoot. will your aryan supermodel wife be there?

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 4:02 PM | Report abuse

Chris
St Norbert's College in Wisconsin was the training camp site for Vince Lombardi's Green Bay Packers.
It is a fine liberal arts school of long standing and not far from Green Bay. I have 2 very good friends who are alums.

Posted by: jmsbh | April 7, 2010 3:15 PM | Report abuse

It is not numbers or fundamentals that will affect the stock market. It is group psychology. At a certain point, usually a convenient round number, the masses of amatuer traders will say take profits and lock in before all the other doofuses beat me to it. It is a feature of complex systems. It is called a cascading failure. The domino effect.

I tightened up all my bottoms today to be sure not to get fooled again.

Posted by: Moonbat | April 7, 2010 2:31 PM | Report abuse

@shrink,

I think you're smart to take some money off the table. Gives you something to buy with later. I'm going to do the same myself.

Of course, the more people who think like us, the more likely we're wrong and the market will go up from here. It's always something, isn't it.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 2:31 PM | Report abuse

The democrats CONTINUE to put out the talking points that the aging Tea Party Movement is on the verge of violence


WHAT ARE THEY AFRAID OF ?


Why don't you look to the inner cities - and see where the shootings are.


We have listed three shootings in the past week.


1) Chicago - had a triple shooting on Friday - three separate incidents within blocks of each other - one was actually during the police press conference for the first shooting.


2) New York - 50 blacks were arresting "wilding" near Times Square in mid-town - there were 4 shootings associated with what the papers called a "riot"


3) Washington - just blocks away from where the democrats are issuing their press release trying desperately to convince people that the tea partiers might be violent - 3 blacks were involved in a drive-by shooting in which 9 people were shoot, with 4 dead.


WHO IS THE VIOLENT GROUP ????


SERIOUSLY WHO IS THE VIOLENT GROUP ????

.

.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

The stock market is out over its skis and it has been for some time. It has to pull back or it will be uglier when it does. On the other hand, it is April and lots and lots of money has been bet and lost by people who have been agreeing with the first sentence since this extraordinary rally began.

But today, just to play with Fix karma, I am going to put some $28g of my NASDAQ money into cash.

Posted by: shrink2 | April 7, 2010 1:51 PM | Report abuse

12BB, I asked you a related question yesterday. Using the [apparently antiquated] metric of price-to-earnings ratios I learned in the early 60s, I worry that anything over 11000 would indicate re-bubbling, not health. What do you think, and do you completely disregard P/E now?

Posted by: mark_in_austin | April 7, 2010 1:38 PM
--------------------------------
Sorry, mark, I forgot to give you an answer.

I am a technical trader, which means I follow charts using various indicators. Fundamental investors tend to use P/E's as well as other indicators.

I'm assuming we will see a correction here at 11000, because this was a level at which a significant amount of trading took place in the past. The premise behind that is that more investors have a vested interest in 11000. For example, people who bought here, and subsequently had losses, will tend to put in a sell order ("if the market ever gets back to where I bought this dog, I'm going to sell it").

I'm not commenting on P/E's except to say that P/E's can get way too high or way too low and stay there for a significant amount of time. It's a good way to gauge when the market is cheap or expensive, but not a particularly good way to time the market.

BTW, your comment about re-bubbling is probably right on. But, we have had bubbles now for years and I don't think they will go away. There is too much money chasing too few stocks and that is always inflationary. I think that is just the nature of the stock market, and one needs to find a way to navigate through the minefield.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Darn liberal science. the Facts refuse to cooperate:

The extent of sea ice over the Arctic Ocean grew until the last day of March, the latest the annual melting season has begun in 31 years of satellite records, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said. Cold weather and winds from the north over the Bering Sea and Barents Sea meant that the area of ocean covered by ice expanded through last month, the Boulder, Colorado-based center said today in a statement on its Web site. That’s two days later than in 1999, the previous latest start to a melting season since satellite monitoring began in 1979.

Posted by: Zouk_is_King
***********************************************
Hello Zouk_is_King,

I enjoyed reading your comment, but I'm sorry to point out that you made an error - it's because of Anthropogenic Global Warming that ice expansion was so great this winter!!!

Posted by: Conservator | April 7, 2010 1:47 PM | Report abuse

Zouk wrote: the leftist kooks are in a funk because the Tea parties are made up by 17% Democrats and 35% Independents.
----------------------------------
I used to live in Utah. People there are fond of saying that only 50% of the ppl in Salt Lake City are LDS. But everyone knows that the other 50% used to be LDS.

I don't know how the surveys came up with 17% democrats and 35% Independents, but we all know (including you) that they used to be Republicans.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 1:38 PM | Report abuse

12BB, I asked you a related question yesterday. Using the [apparently antiquated] metric of price-to-earnings ratios I learned in the early 60s, I worry that anything over 11000 would indicate re-bubbling, not health. What do you think, and do you completely disregard P/E now?

Posted by: mark_in_austin | April 7, 2010 1:38 PM | Report abuse

On the contrary dribbl. I have a conference at the Military Academy coming up. I look forward to helping with your employment by throwing my peanuts recklessly on the floor at the '7 in dog years' show.

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 1:32 PM | Report abuse

"dribbl is a mindless idiot in the pattern of old school 60s war hating tye died smelly hippies who never got a job or worked for a living. her sole meaning in life is posting tired old clippings from kook sites around the web. how empty of a head is that? Ask Olbie. they are peas in a pod."


LOL. glad i don't spend my days obssessing and stalking people I'll never meet.

When you got nothing to attack the message wiht, attack the messenger. and here's more of the little prince's projection:


"who never got a job or worked for a living."

projection
.
Psychology.
a.
the tendency to ascribe to another person feelings, thoughts, or attitudes present in oneself, or to regard external reality as embodying such feelings, thoughts, etc., in some way.

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 1:28 PM | Report abuse

12BarBlues


The Tea Party Movement haven't shot anyone -

yet if you hear the democratic talking points, you would think they were the ONLY possibility of violence in the whole county.

Yet, the racist democrats keep on going and going.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 1:03 PM
---------------------------------
You are dying to tell us who the REAL violent people are. Now is your chance. Who are they?

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 1:26 PM | Report abuse

the leftist kooks are in a funk because the Tea parties are made up by 17% Democrats and 35% Independents. these were the people who elected the Fraud we have now. His support has vanished as his real agenda emerged. More people identify with the tea party than the Present ident now. but there is still 8% that admires Peloony. you could almost name them all - dribbl, Ped, Margerat, Baghdad BJ, DDAWD, same few who still watch Olbie rant and rave like they do.

what are they supposed to do? Debate the facts? lead with their ideas? OK stop laughing. Really now.

all the Libs can do is demonize anyone who objects to the socialist takover of america as racist or violent or crazy or extreme. this avoids ever having to discuss anything like policies or costs or taxes or results or anything that actually means something.

If you demand measures. they simply rename them - jobs saved, taxes are fees, etc.

If you demand accountability, they place it on Bush, unless it's something good in which case they bear sole responsibility.

dribbl is a mindless idiot in the pattern of old school 60s war hating tye died smelly hippies who never got a job or worked for a living. her sole meaning in life is posting tired old clippings from kook sites around the web. how empty of a head is that? Ask Olbie. they are peas in a pod.

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Darn liberal science. the Facts refuse to cooperate:

The extent of sea ice over the Arctic Ocean grew until the last day of March, the latest the annual melting season has begun in 31 years of satellite records, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said. Cold weather and winds from the north over the Bering Sea and Barents Sea meant that the area of ocean covered by ice expanded through last month, the Boulder, Colorado-based center said today in a statement on its Web site. That’s two days later than in 1999, the previous latest start to a melting season since satellite monitoring began in 1979.

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 1:04 PM | Report abuse

12BarBlues


The Tea Party Movement haven't shot anyone -

yet if you hear the democratic talking points, you would think they were the ONLY possibility of violence in the whole county.

Yet, the racist democrats keep on going and going.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 1:03 PM | Report abuse

12BarBlues


The Tea Party Movement haven't shot anyone -

yet if you hear the democratic talking points, you would think they were the ONLY possibility of violence in the whole county.

Yet, the racist democrats keep on going and going.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 1:03 PM | Report abuse

Overheard at the last dribbl and the Stooges summit:

the sky is falling, the sky is falling.

don't you mean warming?

People are unhappy with Comrade Zero's socialist agenda and are making themselves heard. We can't tolerate that. Deploy the race card.

but we're the racists. that may backfire.

then accuse them of fomenting violence.

do you think they can be trusted to forget about what we pulled with Bush, the glee at the body count, the salivating over car bombs, the pronouncements of imminent loss?

We must rely on our media brothers to cover for us. the NY waste of Times would not dare print the truth. we wil be OK.

Meanwhile get some photos of Barack throwing a fastball. Make sure it makes it to the plate this time. Tell India,
Pakistan, Iraq and Iran he'll call them back next month or two.

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 1:00 PM | Report abuse

This, 12Bar:

The 'window' is the range of ideas that are publicly acceptable.

Overton described a method for moving that window, thereby including previously excluded ideas, while excluding previously acceptable ideas. The technique relies on people promoting ideas even less acceptable than the previous "outer fringe" ideas.

That makes those old fringe ideas look less extreme, and thereby acceptable. The idea is that priming the public with fringe ideas intended to be and remain unacceptable, will make the real target ideas seem more acceptable by comparison.

The degrees of acceptance of public ideas can be described roughly as:

* Unthinkable
* Radical
* Acceptable
* Sensible
* Popular
* Policy

The Overton Window is a means of visualizing which ideas define that range of acceptance by where they fall in it, and adding new ideas that can push the old ideas towards acceptance merely by making the limits more extreme.'

You have seen how the unthinkable, like flying a plane into a building, has become 'acceptable' to Republican politicians, and 'popular' among the tea party mentality.

You will see them pushing it further and further, as with Gingrich comparing federal employeees to Gestapo. Imagine what's going to happen to the census takers.

This was how it became widely acceptable to kill Jews in Germany [I am not comparing anyone to hitler, that's just a recent example of a very old practice] -- i am just saying that this is the technique -- commmon among authoritarian movements [and the Tea Part is one, because it uses violence and threats as leverage] to move the needle over time to make the previously unthinkable the norm.

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 1:00 PM | Report abuse

Whodathunkit? 37th and I find something to agree upon. I'm not sure that seasonal brews will lock in any votes, though perhaps a Brat and A Brew in every Belly works as a slogan.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | April 7, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Added to the Gingrich prediction of the 16,000 member IRS Gestapo, now, scam artists are going door to door, claiming there's a limited open-enrollment period to buy health insurance now and have also set up toll-free lines to defraud consumers.

http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/Daily-Reports/2010/April/07/Sebelius-Implementation-And-Scams.aspx

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Margaret


They call it "Sox Park" -


Obama is not an American - he can't throw a baseball, he can't name a baseball player on his favorite team.

How much worse can it be?


.

.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 12:56 PM | Report abuse

SERIOUSLY WHO IS THE VIOLENT GROUP ????


Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 12:50 PM
----------------------------------
OK, I'll bite. Who is the violent group? You get to say.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 12:52 PM | Report abuse

drindl


What is wrong with you that you have to this fear-mongering ???

Why don't you look to the inner cities - and see where the shootings are.

We have listed three shootings in the past week.


1) Chicago - had a triple shooting on Friday - three separate incidents within blocks of each other - one was actually during the police press conference for the first shooting.


2) New York - 50 blacks were arresting "wilding" near Times Square in mid-town - there were 4 shootings associated with what the papers called a "riot"


3) Washington - just blocks away from where the democrats are issuing their press release trying desperately to convince people that the tea partiers might be violent - 3 blacks were involved in a drive-by shooting in which 9 people were shoot, with 4 dead.

WHO IS THE VIOLENT GROUP ????

SERIOUSLY WHO IS THE VIOLENT GROUP ????


Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 12:50 PM | Report abuse

if the dems knew how to create jobs, we would all have one...
but like their unemployment figures, most good news is being made up by the obamas...
dems don't have a clue, give the other side a chance to provide results...
if you don't like them try, all you will get is more taxes...

Posted by: DwightCollins | April 7, 2010 12:49 PM | Report abuse

dribbl cuts and pastes that stuff. you really expect that nitwit to understand any of it?

you best go over to wikipedia.

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 12:44 PM | Report abuse

here's a good example of the extremism, the monstrous irresponsibility of R rhetoric:

'Nevertheless, Gingrich is pressing on, hyping his own false claim with hyperbolic rhetoric and Nazi Germany comparisons. In a segment on PJ TV today, Gingrich claimed that Democrats are hiring “16,000 IRS agents” as a “a health Gestapo” — like that of the Nazi secret police. He continued, with pictures of federal agents with guns and sledgehammers splashed across the screen, by predicting that “every Republican candidate” should campaign on a promise of defunding these “government policemen”

You think telling gullible, simple-minded people that the Gestapo is coming to get them might scare them a litte, might make them think about doing something to 'protect themselves'? Like trying to kill Obama or a congressperson, or a local cop?

Ya think?

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 12:43 PM | Report abuse

What the heck is the Overton window. I hope I'm not going to be embarrassed.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

Charles Alan Wilson is a d0uchebag. He was arrested yesterday after leaving obscene and violent messages and death threats at the offices of Dingbat Senator Patty Murray's office. He didn't like her support for ObamaCare. According to polls, there's about 180 million of us that don't like ObamaCare... but one a-hoe has to go and do something stupid about it.

ObamaCare needs to be killed. Death threats against senators... even socialist dingbats like Patty Murray... are not helpful. Charles Alan Wilson, enjoy your lock-up. The only person you are a hero to are the violent, nasty, stupid people on the left (aka dribbl and the stooges), who can now use you to smear the vast majority of ObamaCare opponents who are peaceful and reasonable.

dribbl makes me miss Iggy Pop.

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 12:38 PM | Report abuse

'It's interesting to think that Armageddon is the Republican fantasy to get even for electing Obama. I never thought of it that way.'

How else could you think of it? haven't you seen posters like jake nearly praying for another attack on us?

These are people who would rather die than lose an election.

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 12:37 PM | Report abuse

don't know if you're talking to me but do a chart going back from the 2007 peak to current day using stochastics, mcclellan summation index and the puts to call ratio. also look at the macd histogram. everything is pointing to a change in market sentiment just as it did with 2007 peak.

as i said before, correction could be minor and a positive thing that would eventually push market even higher than dow 11000. but from the technical charts i see, a major correction is coming with a retest of march 2009 lows.

Posted by: doof | April 7, 2010 12:21 PM
--------------------------------
Techtalk: wink, wink doof...

I will do exactly as you suggest. I primarily use a long term momentum indicator which is still pointed up. But that doesn't preclude a correction as you know. Thanks for your tips.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 12:35 PM | Report abuse

The Overton Window has moved. Expressions of violence are shrugged off, leading to further pushing of the window.

We have seen a disturbing trend in the last few months of violence based on political views. The man who flew his plane into the IRS, the assassination of Dr. Tiller for performing legal reproductive services, the killing of police officers for the supposed plan by the Obama administration to seize the guns of private citizens, the brick throwing at Democratic political offices and the cutting of gas lines at the family home of the brother of a U.S Representative whose address was posted on the internet by mistake.

Then there are the credible threats; just yesterday a man was arrested for making credible threats against the life of Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and a man was arrested for threatening to use deadly force to prevent the operation of an abortion clinic. Pictures of nooses have been faxed to African American Representatives, and many other have had anonymous calls to their homes and offices.

While the level of violence and threats of violence is very troubling, what is more troubling is the ho-hum attitude about it and the way that Repulican politicians are tacitly encouraging it.

The blood will be on their hands.

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 12:33 PM | Report abuse

Chris Matthews Calls His Boyfriend a Socialist

In chiding the left-wing blogs for not doing a good job selling socialism, Chrissy Matthews inadvertently admits what we right-wingnuts have been hammered by the left for saying for the last two years.


The reason left-wing blogs are failing to sell Americans on socialism is two-fold. Partly, it's because you don't win over opponents by calling them knuckle-dragging, tea-bagging racists. But mostly it is because socialism itself is indefensible. There is still a plurality in the population who can figure out that you can't build a sustainable economic system based on confiscating ever larger amounts of wealth from wealth producers and giving it away to wealth consumers. Most Americans are smart enough to realize there's no such thing as Santa Claus, even if the progressives aren't.

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Republicans continue to dream of domestic and international disaster. If only America went off a cliff, Armageddon, civil war, nothing would be too bad a comeuppance for a country that elected Obama, right? Right. Sorry Republicans, you Bush/Cheney voters did do your best to destroy us, but we'll be ok.

Posted by: shrink2 | April 7, 2010 12:20 PM
---------------------------------
What you wrote is very insightful. I post very occasionally on RCP, and have noticed that anyone who points out that the stock market has had a record-breaking rally and that economic indicators are pointing up, not down, is met with a fury that is spectacular.

Even if one believes in Armageddon, one could reasonably argue that the timing may be further into the future than the next six months.

I've been called all sorts of names, including stupid and naive. Well, I've been making money going long and anyone who shorted the market as it went up has been wiped out.

It's interesting to think that Armageddon is the Republican fantasy to get even for electing Obama. I never thought of it that way.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Another sign of our equity markets defying gravity (which of course, can not be done) is its continued rise alongside interest rates. As a marker, 30yr fixed mortgages average 5.3 now, they were at or below 5 for many months.

Posted by: shrink2 | April 7, 2010 12:29 PM | Report abuse

12bar, I am sitting on the button fully prepared to lock in my profits.

The exuberance over Repubs taking back the government in the fall will surely fade once or twice along the way as people realize that the bumbling empty suit still holds a veto pen on the voters' desires.

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 12:27 PM | Report abuse

Everyone in Chicago says "Kaminsky" Park. Say Comiskey and we'll think you're kinda la-di-da.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | April 7, 2010 12:27 PM | Report abuse

Everyone in Chicago says "Kaminsky" Park. Say Comiskey and we'll think you're kinda la-di-da.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | April 7, 2010 12:26 PM | Report abuse

dribbl, simply put, you are a loon.

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 12:22 PM | Report abuse

@moonbat,

Techtalk: are you doof?

... how likely do you think a retest of the low lows? (I don't see that in my technicals, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the "pause that refreshes" here at 11000)

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 11:57 AM


don't know if you're talking to me but do a chart going back from the 2007 peak to current day using stochastics, mcclellan summation index and the puts to call ratio. also look at the macd histogram. everything is pointing to a change in market sentiment just as it did with 2007 peak.

as i said before, correction could be minor and a positive thing that would eventually push market even higher than dow 11000. but from the technical charts i see, a major correction is coming with a retest of march 2009 lows.

Posted by: doof | April 7, 2010 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Republicans continue to dream of domestic and international disaster. If only America went off a cliff, Armageddon, civil war, nothing would be too bad a comeuppance for a country that elected Obama, right? Right. Sorry Republicans, you Bush/Cheney voters did do your best to destroy us, but we'll be ok.

Posted by: shrink2 | April 7, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

this is how Liberals reduce or eliminate taxes - they rename them:

As we continue to find out what is contained in ObamaCare (now that it’s been enacted), it is worth noting a last-minute change in nomenclature, made just before the House vote — a disingenuous revision that exemplifies the bill’s legislative process.

The name of the new 3.8 percent “Medicare Tax” on investment income (imposed on people in the upper two tax brackets) was changed the day before the House vote. Its official name in the law signed by President Obama last week is not the “Medicare Tax” (the name in the text released 72 hours before the vote) but rather the “Medicare Contribution.”

The word that should have been changed was not “Tax” but “Medicare.” As discussed here and here, the “High Income Medicare Contribution” has nothing to do with Medicare: it is unrelated to the Medicare benefits of those who will pay the “contribution”; it will not fund the Medicare benefits of others (since the revenue will not go to the Medicare Trust Fund but toward a new entitlement); it is part of legislation that substantially reduces Medicare by cutting Medicare Advantage; and the “contribution” is in a new Internal Revenue Code section whose operative language refers to it as a “tax.” Only the name of the tax was changed — to eliminate the word “Tax.”

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

Obama strikes out yet again

By Howie Carr Barack Obama used to live in Somerville - I wonder if he ever went to Fenway Park [map], or, as he might put it, Funway Park.

Once again, the president has tried to pass himself off as a regular guy, a Joe Sixpack who likes nothing better than to crack open a Bud and listen to a game from . . . Cuminski Park.

Cuminski . . . rhymes with Alinsky. As in “Saul Alinsky.”

Yes, that’s right, the president talked about “Cuminski” Park again Monday at the Washington Nationals’ home opener, at which he threw out the first pitch in a semi-girly-man lefty toss.

Then he went up into the broadcast booth and pretended to be a baseball fan - a manly man.

Of course, no one expects Barack Obama to really know anything. We understand, all too well, exactly how he got through Columbia and Harvard Law. He had certain . . . intangibles, shall we say.

But now he pretends to be a rabid White Sox fan. Which led the announcer to a natural follow-up question: “Who was one of your favorite White Sox players growing up?”

All dialogue guaranteed verbatim:

“You know uh I I thought that uh you know the truth is that, a lot of the Cubs I like too uh but uh I did not become a Sox fan until I moved to Chicago . . .”

I’ve never been a White Sox fan. But I can name plenty of Pale Hose, starting with Nellie Fox and Early Wynn. Minnie Minoso.

We know Obama knows nothing about history, or sports, or anything, basically. But how about movies? “Field of Dreams”? “Eight Men Out”? Ever hear of Shoeless Joe Jackson - I’ll give you a hint, Mr. President. He was a typical white person.

“-because I uh you know I was uh growing up in Hawaii so so I ended up uh an Oakland A’s fan.”

Comes the recurring question: name one. I’ll give you some clues - Reggie, Vida, Sal, Gene, Rollie.

“But when I moved to Chicago I was livin’ close to what was then Cuminski Park and went to a couple games and just fell in love and the nice thing about the Sox is it’s real blue-collar baseball.”

Whatever that is. As bad as John Kerry was, with “Manny Ortez” and his belief that baseball is a lot like tennis - “Detroit 2, Red Sox [team stats] 5,” as he would say - at least he could name some players.

But this incident Monday reminds me of one of those old World War II POW movies, where Bill Holden and the boys in Stalag 17 catch the Nazi spy by asking him how many home runs Babe Ruth hit in 1927.

I’m sure, though, that Barack does know some baseball. Anybody know who batted clean-up for the Nairobi Al Qaedas in 1973?

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 12:15 PM | Report abuse

........and the DemocRATS start to squirm ???

Go against the majority will of the American Taxpayer/Voter/Citizens and YOU will feel the rath of their concerns !!!

Lead on to The Liar in Chief, aka The Man Child currently playing in the Oval Office !!!

How's that changy thingy working out for YOU ???

Posted by: thgirbla | April 7, 2010 12:15 PM | Report abuse

"Tea Party Going Mainstream?Polls Suggest
Movement Gaining in Popularity
Tea Party attitude reaching critical mass. No longer left or right.'

Uber-right all the way. And critical mass is exactly right --

"The smallest mass of a fissionable material that will sustain a nuclear chain reaction at a constant level."

We are in the period where the energy is being gathered for the series of violent explosions that are coming.

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 12:13 PM | Report abuse

The kindest word for all of this is fiasco. American troops are risking their lives to implement a counterinsurgency strategy that requires winning popular support in Afghanistan, and the main message from America's Commander in Chief to the Afghan people is that their government can't be trusted. That ought to make it easier to win hearts and minds

You go to war with the allies you have, and it's contrary to any diplomatic principle to believe that continuing public humiliation will make Mr. Karzai more likely to cooperate. On the evidence of the last week, such treatment has only given the Afghan leader more incentive to make a show of his political independence from the Americans.

All the more so given that Mr. Karzai has already heard Mr. Obama promise that U.S. troops will begin leaving Afghanistan as early as July 2011. This shouting spectacle will also embolden the Taliban, who after being run out of Marjah have every reason to tell the citizens of Kandahar that even the Americans don't like the Afghan government and are short-timers in any case.
Coming on the heels of the U.S. public chastisement of Israel's government, the larger concern over the Karzai episode is what it reveals about Mr. Obama's diplomatic frame of mind. With adversaries, he is willing to show inordinate patience, to the point of muffling his objections when opposition blood ran in the streets of Tehran. With allies, on the other hand, the President is unforgiving and insists they follow his lead or face his public wrath. The result will be that our foes fear us less, and that we have fewer friends.


Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 12:11 PM | Report abuse

President Obama isn't faring too well at converting enemies to friends, but he does seem to have a talent for turning friends into enemies. The latest spectacle is the all-too-public and counterproductive war of words between the White House and our putative ally, Afghan President Hamid Karzai. The only winner so far in this spat is the Taliban.

The Obama Administration seems to have had it out for Mr. Karzai from the day it took office, amid multiple reports based on obvious U.S. leaks that Vice President Joe Biden or some other official had told the Afghan leader to shape up. The tension escalated after Mr. Karzai's tainted but ultimately recognized re-election victory last year, and it reached the name-calling stage late last month when President Obama met Mr. Karzai on a trip to Kabul and the White House let the world know that the American had lectured the Afghan about his governing obligations.

-WSJ

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 12:05 PM | Report abuse

Bondosan


Doof is right - the economy has to create 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with the population growth -


These most recent employment numbers - 169,000 - if you take out the temporary census workers, you are at 100,000.

So the economy is STILL SHRINKING.

And that is WITH ALL THE STIMULUS MONEY.

Obama's stimulus is not working - it was misspent by people who were more interested in partisan projects than what the economy actually needed to grow.

ADD to all that - OBAMA'S TAXES are going to place a massive drag on hiring this year.

The economy is WORSE - AND THE DEMOCRATS MADE IT EVEN WORSE.

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Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 12:05 PM | Report abuse

Bondosan


Doof is right - the economy has to create 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with the population growth -


These most recent employment numbers - 169,000 - if you take out the temporary census workers, you are at 100,000.

So the economy is STILL SHRINKING.

And that is WITH ALL THE STIMULUS MONEY.

Obama's stimulus is not working - it was misspent by people who were more interested in partisan projects than what the economy actually needed to grow.

ADD to all that - OBAMA'S TAXES are going to place a massive drag on hiring this year.

The economy is WORSE - AND THE DEMOCRATS MADE IT EVEN WORSE.

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Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 12:05 PM | Report abuse

Tea Party Going Mainstream?Polls Suggest
Movement Gaining in Popularity
Tea Party attitude reaching critical mass. No longer left or right.

Posted by: Zouk_is_King | April 7, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

The democrats are getting ridiculous - their efforts to paint the Tea Party Movement as extremists is just so way off base it is silly.

First, by the survey Chris cited, 50 million people say they are a PART of the Tea Party Movement.

How many more people AGREE with the Tea Party Movement - but would not answer the survey question that they are a part of the Tea Party Movement.


Just because the democrats might be successful in their storyline a bit, that DOES NOT ADDRESS THE ISSUES.

Saying that the Tea Party Movement might have extremists - even if the democrats got people to agree with them on that point - that does not solve the problem - which is WIDESPREAD OPPOSITION TO OBAMA'S TAX POLICIES.


So what are the democrats accomplishing? Virtually nothing.

Obama's pushed back on the best gift he ever got: the Brown victory gave him the perfect opportunity to drop the health care plan and NOT raise everyone's taxes.

NOW Obama HAS RAISED THE TAXES - he has CONFIRMED WHAT PEOPLE WERE SAYING ABOUT HIM.

If Obama was the CENTRIST he claimed to be, this problem would not exist.


I just think the result is the OPPOSITION TO OBAMA HAS JUST BEEN SO HARDENED THAT THERE IS ALMOST NOTHING THAT CAN BE DONE.

Obama had a special problem when he was elected: he wasn't around very long, he didn't and doesn't now have a TRACK RECORD WHICH PEOPLE CAN RELY ON TO SAY, I KNOW OBAMA, I CAN TRUST HIM.

Bush, Jr. had a massive advantage - because he fell back on his father's track record - everyone expected him to be more like his father than he was.

Obama has no track record of POLICIES, of the public knowing who he is - to fall back on.


Instead, Obama is making his impression right now - and what the Republicans say about him - that is out there, but people may not have bought that until Obama confirmed it by actions.

Obama was UNDEFINED - even up until last spring and summer -

NOW Obama IS DEFINED - AND HE LET THE REPUBLICANS DEFINE HIM.

That means he is TOAST.

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Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 11:57 AM | Report abuse

@moonbat,

Techtalk: are you doof?

Whether or not, doesn't matter. If I could ask you, where do you see the closest support level? I know this is difficult, but how likely do you think a retest of the low lows? (I don't see that in my technicals, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the "pause that refreshes" here at 11000)

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 11:57 AM | Report abuse

As to #4, I don't know how much the RNC can congratulate themselves on landing candidates. Tommy Thompson would be a 69 year-old freshman Senator. Dan Coats would be a 67 year-old freshman (redux) Senator.

Thompson's dumbing-down of the Advisory panels at NIH is an indicator of just how much Thompson is willing to do to ingratiate himself to his party bosses. It was a disgraceful episode.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | April 7, 2010 11:52 AM | Report abuse

The Dow is approaching 11,000.

The economy is adding jobs.

Posted by: Bondosan | April 7, 2010 7:08 AM

i wouln't be too sure about the dow getting much above 11000. there is a correction coming, maybe this week. correction could be either a minor one and stock market continues higher or it could be a major one with market heading way down to retest lows of last march. many technical indicators are at the same level as the market peak in 2007. not a good sign.

with jobs, the administration says they added jobs but the unemployment rate is still the same. something fishy there.

Posted by: doof | April 7, 2010 11:51 AM | Report abuse

Sorry 12Bar-- here it is.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124906766&ps=cprs

I think you are right about Coburn and now about Murdoch. They see that things are now starting to spiral out of control. Armed teabaggers are making credible threats against congresspeople... militias are planning murders of cops [and lone rightwing actors have already killed a lot of cops this year] -- and the rhetoric just keeps escalating.

It's only a short step from throwing a brick through a congressman's office to throwing the brick at him. This was how the rightwing violence binge during th Clinton era started, that ended with McVeigh. They know that's where we're headed and that they will bear responsibility for it.

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 11:49 AM | Report abuse

@drindl,

To buttress Potok's observations of armageddon, over at RCP blog, the regulars are actually predicting the bankruptcy of the federal government and the breakup of the country into 50 individual countries, each with its own currency, armies, etc.

And they think this is going to happen like this year.

They say the stock market is going to zero, treasury bonds are going to zero, the currency is going to zero, and to take up your guns and get ready.

The only good thing is that the bloggers there never leave their keyboards so it's just talk. But they DO believe it.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 11:46 AM | Report abuse

URGENT TO: Senior WH advisers John Brennan, Dennis Blair; Atty. Gen. Eric Holder; Homeland Sec. Janet Napolitano (via Gibbs, Emanuel, Axelrod)

"MR. OBAMA, TEAR DOWN THOSE HOMELAND CELLULAR TORTURE TOWERS!"

Vic Livingston reports:

"I have come to the conclusion that the federal authorities who created and maintain this directed energy microwave/laser attack system have made the technology a "plug in" -- so accessible to so many agents, operatives, law enforcement officers and/or contractors that it has become an uncontrollable, disabling, potentially lethal weapon of sociopaths and miscreants on both the federal and local levels.

"Only presidential leadership, I believe, can take down this torture matrix -- which, I believe that empirical evidence indicates, already may have targeted and adversely affected the President of the United States."

See commentary appended to article, "U.S. Silently Tortures Americans with Cell Tower Microwaves" at:

http://nowpublic.com/world/u-s-silently-tortures-americans-cell-tower-microwaves
http://NowPublic.com/scrivener

Posted by: scrivener50 | April 7, 2010 11:41 AM | Report abuse

drindl wrote Part of the issue, Potok says, is not what politicians say — but what they leave unsaid.
--------------------------------------
Do you have a link to Potok's article?

I thought it was curious, and atypical, for Sen. Coburn (isn't that the guy?) to push back against Fox News and try to dampen the anger. Did you? I wonder what his motivation was--I'm sure it was purposeful.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 11:37 AM | Report abuse

"Part of the issue, Potok says, is not what politicians say — but what they leave unsaid.

"I think a lot of these ideas start on the radical right, but they are also being flogged endlessly by Republican officials," he says. "Even those who are sort of considered [to be] responsible Republicans have completely abstained from any kind of criticism of this talk. So even way back when, when Sarah Palin was talking about Obama setting up death panels and so on — what we heard was a deafening silence from the mainstream of the Republican Party."

A new poll from Harris interactive finds that 40 percent of American adults think that Obama is a socialist; 25 percent believe that Obama was not born in the United States and is therefore not eligible to be president; 20 percent say Obama is doing many of the things that Hitler did; 14 percent say Obama "may be the Antichrist."

"I hear a very scary situation developing," says Potok. "The idea that people really have swallowed these stories in such enormous numbers is something remarkable. I covered, as a reporter, the militia movement in the 1990s, which really produced an extraordinary amount of criminal violence. And even back then, you did not hear this kind of talk so broadly spread through this society."

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 11:32 AM | Report abuse

"Last May, about 30 people gathered at a resort in Jekyll Island, Ga., for a series of discussions about "increasing national instability" and President Obama's "socialized" policies.

The island was chosen for symbolic reasons — the initial discussions about creating a Federal Reserve were held there in 1910 — and the attendees met to formulate a plan for bringing their own radical organizations together.

"One of the interesting things about the meeting is how nondenominational it was," says Mark Potok. "There were Holocaust deniers there. There were anti-Semites. There were also people who have none of those feelings, who are all about the idea that the federal income tax is unconstitutional — people from the old[er] militia movements and so on."

Potok is the director of publications and information for the Southern Poverty Law Center. The group's latest Intelligence Report, "Rage on the Right," documents the growth in the number of hate and extremist groups — and how their rhetoric is increasingly entering the mainstream."

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 11:30 AM | Report abuse

"Even though it might wind up as a campaign donation, I'll have to crack a Leinie's tonight (red if I can find it around here). Nothing says Wisconsin like beer."


Worry not; Leinenkugel's is a wholly owned subsidiary of the SABMiller behemoth. There may be an ad in that.

If you want good 'sconnie beer, go for something from Sprecher, or New Glarus, or Rush River or, now I'm drawing a blank; the guys out of Black River Falls that do Knot Stock, 3 FT Deep and Fatty Boombalatty.

.

Posted by: bsimon1 | April 7, 2010 11:30 AM | Report abuse

@moonbat,

Tech talk: Do you see resistance at 11,000 Dow? If the market corrects here, where do you think support is? Does your slowest stochastic have the market overbought?

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 11:25 AM | Report abuse

When rightwing extremism moves mainstream

"Potok points to race as one of the reasons “anti-immigrant vigilante groups [have] soared by nearly 80 percent” in the past year. He also notes a “dramatic resurgence in the Patriot movement and its paramilitary wing” in the past year — jumping 244 percent in 2009. Potok says that these groups’ messages are increasingly moving into the mainstream media.

“I think it’s very clear that you see ideas coming out of all kinds of sectors of the radical right, from the anti-immigrant radical right, from the so-called Patriot groups, the militias and so on — and you see it spreading right across the landscape at some of these Tea Party events,” he says. “I think it’s worth saying that much of this is aided and abetted by ostensibly mainstream politicians and media members.”

A lot of the “patriot group” rhetoric is anti-semitic and neo-nazi. So, we have one group of Republican thinkers, the neo-cons, labeling anyone who doesn’t agree with Bibi Netanyahu “anti-semitic”, while another group, the teabaggers, is inspired by a militia movement that denies the Holocaust. Who says the Republican party isn’t a big tent?"

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124906766&ps=cprs

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 11:25 AM | Report abuse

Regarding karzai and Afghanistan. Simply another complete bumble by Obungler. He is busy messing up in Iraq too.

But at least his pitch reached the extreme left side of the plate. He spent most of the week working on that.

Pity his TelePrompTer wasn't loaded up with the name of a single sox player, his so called favorite team.

What a fraud.

Next week we surrender our precision weapons advantage to Russia.

Posted by: Moonbat | April 7, 2010 11:21 AM | Report abuse

Guess Murdoch doesn't actually *watch* Fox News. Doesn't know that the 'Tea Party" is actually a CREATION of FOX news -- a wholly-owned subsidiary.

If he actually has any ethics, he will stop this as he must understand how dangerous it is to democracy and how much of a joke it makes out of the idea of 'journalism.'


"As ThinkProgress and others have documented, for over a year now, Fox News has promoted and celebrated the anti-Obama Tea Party movement. But at a forum for the public affairs TV series, The Kalb Report, last night, Rupert Murdoch, the CEO of Fox’s parent company, said that the network should not be “supporting” the movement:

The mogul was peppered with a host of questions related to his media empire’s political leanings, and in each case fought the perception that he’s made his fortune by catering to the conservative audience. Asked by an official at the progressive watchdog group, Media Matters, whether it was ethical for officials at Fox to promote the Tea Party movement (as has been documented on some occasion) he replied without hesitation.

“No. I don’t think we should be supporting the Tea Party or any other party. But I’d like to investigate what you are saying before condemning anyone.”

If Murdoch does “investigate” Fox’s support of the Tea Party, he will not only find that network has given the conservative protests blanket, celebratory coverage, but has even branded some of them as being “FNC Tax Day Tea Parties“:

n April 2009, Fox Business reporter Stuart Varney contradicted the network’s assertion that it is only covering the protests when he declared on air, “It’s now my great duty to promote the Tea Parties. Here we go!” Earlier this year, NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd explained the impact of Fox’s promotion on the Tea Party’s prominence. “When we did our own polling on this it’s clear that the Tea Party gets a big benefit because there’s one news organization that gives them a huge bump all the time,” said Todd. “I mean their favorable rating among Fox viewers is through the roof and the rest of the country sort of doesn’t know a lot about these folks.”

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 11:16 AM | Report abuse

Cilizza forgot to mention that the libs will split the vote between the two candidates in hi. The rules say that the winner can be the person who rises above 50 percent. This is what happened to repubs in ny.

How embarrassing to lose a 70 percent blue seat by complete incompetence.

The return to sanity and capitalism begins.

Posted by: Moonbat | April 7, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

Off topic, but interesting:

Does anyone here have any insight as to WHAT is going on with Hamid Karzai. I don't think he's crazy, so please don't post that. There is a reason for his reaction to "join the Taliban".

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 7, 2010 11:08 AM | Report abuse

I think you got it about right bondo. sad, ain't it?

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 11:08 AM | Report abuse

Remember when berry used to criticize bush for ruining relationships with other countries.

Now India is annoyed with us. Is there one friend he hasn't pushed away. What has all the simpering and wimpering got us except a stronger Korea, Iran, Russia and more.

Posted by: Moonbat | April 7, 2010 11:07 AM | Report abuse

Of New Jersey, SISSD writes

...we are tired of being the laughing stock of the country...

Good luck with that fella, we're still laughing at you. Ending corruption by switching parties, you are funny. Oh yeah and Republicans will stop illegal migration too, hahhahaahahaha, stop it, I can't breathe.

Posted by: shrink2 | April 7, 2010 10:57 AM | Report abuse

If Leinenkugel is running for the Senate in Wisconsin, Tommy Thompson is not. Leinenkugel would not challenge him, and must know Tommy's out. It'll be interesting to see how the Tea Party wing of the GOP likes Leinenkugel, who's been part of the cabinet of Dem Jim Doyle, handled the state's stimulus money, and champions Doyle's climate change bill -- all things that get them extremely riled up.

Posted by: xofferson | April 7, 2010 10:55 AM | Report abuse

37:

I'm trying to get a picture of your average day...

Wake up around 9 AM, 'cause Mom gets pissed if you spend all day in bed.

Mom makes you some breakfast.

Get in front of the computer. Tell mother you're "job hunting." "It's the way EVERYBODY looks for work nowadays!"

Read Drudge, Malkin, Newsmax, Free Republic, etc.

Begin posing on The Fix.

Heat up some leftovers for lunch.

Continue posting on The Fix.

Mom calls upstairs that she's left you some dinner in the oven.

Continue posting on The Fix.

Eat a late dinner while watching Fox "News."

Post some more on The Fix.

To bed.

Sound about right?

Posted by: Bondosan | April 7, 2010 10:50 AM | Report abuse

Leinenkugel is extremely popular in Wisconsin - it is considered the home-state favorite. People from around the country probably will not believe how high Leinenkugel's name recognition will be.


Feingold is going to have a problem.


Leinenkugel is also constantly promoting itself - with seasonal brews. This is going to take the younger vote.

Maybe this is why Thompson has not been jumping in - he was anticipating this one.

I have long felt Wisconsin would be in play this year - even though recently I have seen lists otherwise. Wisconsin is very closely split no matter what year it is - and Feingold is a far-left liberal - just thing not to be this year. Remember it is pronounced LI - NEN - KU - GEL.


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Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 10:44 AM | Report abuse

The TEA people appear to be downwardly mobile, which may explain their inchoate rage. But is the RNC fund raising disaster really all Michael Steele's fault?

This February, the RNC had $9.5 million in the bank, while in February 2006, they had $41 million. Anyone who thinks that doesn't mean anything has some explaining to do.

Is it possible that the SES of the average Republican took a greater hit in the recession than that of the average Democrat? If so, how ironic.

Posted by: shrink2 | April 7, 2010 10:41 AM | Report abuse

here in new jersey the most corrupt state in the country we are showing the rest of the country that we are tired of the crooked democrats from top to bottom that they are going to be voted out of office,we are tired of being the laughing stock of the country.hell we got a petition going to get rid of our senator(robert menendez)because he loves to pass any bill that raises taxes,and his love for the illegal aliens in our country.

Posted by: SISSD1 | April 7, 2010 10:36 AM | Report abuse

This could be significant, and could signal a further fracture between Republicans and the uber-right, who seem to want to bring down the RNC:


"It's not very subtle.

The uber-conservative National Republican Trust PAC is running ads that might just be trying to convince Republican National Committee boosters to put their money elsewhere. The group, which spent big in 2008, has a new slogan: "Got trust?"

We first noticed the ad above a story critical of the RNC posted on The Daily Caller. The PAC boasted it is made up of "Republicans you can trust: With your principles ... your time ... your investment."

We're trying to reach the Trust PAC's top official Scott Wheeler to ask about the new campaign and will update if we hear back.

Here are the ads:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/04/conservative-groups-ads-needle-rnc-got-trust.php?ref=fpb

The group was heavily involved in the NY-23 special election that fractured the GOP and led to a Democratic pickup of the seat for the first time since the Civil War.

Wheeler also has attempted to spread the false rumor that Obama is a Muslim. "

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 10:33 AM | Report abuse

The whole question from the beginning of the year has been: how is Obama going to get back the people he has lost ???


Instead of making progress in that direction, Obama has re-offended those people, and proved himself to be even more out of touch.

In essence - Obama has made his task MORE difficult - and now he has 3 LESS months to deal with it.

The elections are 7 months away - with two of those months summer months.

This latest episode of False Charges of Racism just may have put Obama in a area from which he can not recover - once you start hearing that they don't care about "these people" - and they are just going to target certain groups, there is a serious message problem.

The democrats are missing one thing which they maximized : Bush.

Once the tv's start to flash pictures of the democrats protesting Bush - and then they compare those pictures to the Tea Party Movement - anyone can see the Tea Party Movement is POLITE AND TAME next to the democrats' signs.

This destroys Obama's credibility even more - those pictures are already going around the internet.

Obama is one crisis away from being Jimmy Carter.

Right now Obama is the Second Hoover Administration.

Good Luck with Obama's largest tax increase in American history... during a recession.


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Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 10:31 AM | Report abuse

'The Michigan Militia is hosting a family-oriented "Militia Field Day" on Saturday -- complete with shooting events -- with the hope that it will help distance them from the recently arrested members of the Hutaree Militia.

Last month, nine Hutaree members were arrested on several counts, including an alleged plot to attack police.

The Michigan Militia, from the same area, is hoping that their annual "Open Carry Family Picnic & Tea Party" will help distinguish them from the Hutaree, and "take the stigma out of the word 'militia.'"

This on the anniversary of the McVeigh bombing. I really can't get past the scheduling. Families and assault weapons -- isn't that exactly what the Hutaree were about? Nothing could go wrong here.

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 10:24 AM | Report abuse

Even though it might wind up as a campaign donation, I'll have to crack a Leinie's tonight (red if I can find it around here). Nothing says Wisconsin like beer.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | April 7, 2010 10:15 AM | Report abuse

Illinois favors the democrats structurally - but Kirk is a really good candidate and the democrat has severe banking troubles.


However, Illinois also has a high tolerance for corruption.

That might be the closest Senate race in the end. Other Senate races which one does not expect might go towards the Republicans and Illinois may remain competitive.

Obama has really destroyed his credibility on many levels.


One should not underestimate the idea that Obama just rammed through the LARGEST TAX INCREASE IN AMERICAN HISTORY during a horrible recession - it is DEFINITE PROOF THAT OBAMA IS OUT-OF-TOUCH.


Obama really has made his problems much much worse.

The key to getting out of trouble is - well getting out of trouble. If one, instead of getting out of trouble, instead makes those problems worse, it just does not work. This is where Obama is.

Elections are decided many times on a buzz. People talk. People listen to each other.

Right now people are saying, we have to get rid of Obama and the democrats -

Everytime Obama's people start calling people racist - he gets 50 million people telling their friends how much they want to get rid of Obama - the buzz against Obama is immediate and strong.

Obama is inexperienced - some jobs it is alright to put an inexperienced person in, but not President.

These are mistakes - and they are big ones.

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Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 10:14 AM | Report abuse

Here's a good example. Look no further than VA:
"
Yesterday, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) issued a proclamation quietly declaring April 2010 Confederate History Month, saying it was important for Virginians to “understand the sacrifices of the Confederate leaders, soldiers and citizens during the period of the Civil War, and to recognize how our history has led to our present.”

Notably absent from McDonnell’s proclamation was any mention of slavery. Yesterday, McDonnell explained that it wasn’t “significant” enough to merit a mention."

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 10:01 AM | Report abuse

From an article about Obama's health program:

the call center had been inundated by uninsured consumers who were hoping that the overhaul would translate into instant, affordable coverage. That widespread misconception may have originated in part from distorted rhetoric about the legislation

_____________________________________


Obama did have overheated rhetoric - if you want to call it that - more close to the truth is Obama's talking points had little to do with the actual legislation - and even people in Congressional offices do not know what is in the bill.


This CONTINUED after the bill was passed - the democrats started talking about "immediate benefits" - which really are not there.


What is IMMEDIATE is Obama's taxes - and the drag on the economy, the drag on hiring, and the drag on corporate earnings.


That is one reason why Obama's people decided to start calling everyone RACIST - this was a pre-emptive response to the public relations disaster.


A reasonable person has to ask - if what we have been told really isn't in the bill, what is ?

----------------


This is what you are going to have if the Courts do not strike this down.


Instead of the market driving prices and the industry, the federal government will set many prices and decide where the resources go - just like socialism.


The difference is that a multitude of interest groups - instead of competing in the market - will now be going to Washington with campaign contributions in order to GAIN ADVANTAGE IN THE REGULATORY PROCESS.


Good for lobbyists - good for Washington staffers - but the rest of the country is going to end up with one messed up system in which the corporations are more in control than now.


And the corporations, when they take advantage of you, they will have the government on their side - backed up by campaign contributions.


Good luck with that.

The only question which remains is how much damage this program will do to the economy before it is dismantled.

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Posted by: 37thand0street | April 7, 2010 9:59 AM | Report abuse

'but the GOP primary is so heavily influenced this year by the Tea-Party 'right-wing extremists that I think the racist trends will be harder to overcome, especially in places like the Southwest and southeast'

andy is righty.the tea party and the extremists that have taken over the R party have stirred up a hornet's nest of anti-black and anti-latino feeling, and that will definitely hurt those groups at the ballot box this year.

"...who can't tolerate any dissent from outright extremism."

it *is* true that the wingers can't tolerate our dissent from their outright extremism. first real thing this guy's ever said.

Posted by: drindl | April 7, 2010 9:52 AM | Report abuse

"It will be interesting now if the democrats lose Hawaii maybe then we can see Obama's original birth certficate that is being gaurded."


Repubs hold the governorship of HI, which has control over state records. So you might want to let that dream die.

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Posted by: bsimon1 | April 7, 2010 9:34 AM | Report abuse

It will be interesting now if the democrats lose Hawaii maybe then we can see Obama's original birth certficate that is being gaurded.

Posted by: bambam2 | April 7, 2010 9:14 AM | Report abuse

Can I use my stimulus check to pay my Obamacare opt out fine ? Is there a block I can check so that they just keep the f**g money ?

Posted by: billbrann | April 7, 2010 9:12 AM | Report abuse

Is Team Obama Naive, or Complicit?

THE NEXUS BETWEEN POLITICAL SIDESHOWS AND COVERT, HIGH-TECH 'SOCIAL CLEANSING'

Politics has devolved into bread-and-circuses sideshows that deflect attention from a secret multi-agency program of ideological "social cleansing" -- what its victims say are government crimes against humanity.

Victims of Secret Extrajudicial Homeland Fusion Center Torture Demand:

"MR. OBAMA, TEAR DOWN THOSE HOMELAND CELLULAR TORTURE TOWERS!"

http://nowpublic.com/world/u-s-silently-tortures-americans-cell-tower-microwaves

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america

VIC LIVINGSTON REPORTS: "Heinous directed energy weapon "no-touch" microwave torture on extrajudicially 'targeted' American citizens."

See latest comments: http://nowpublic.com/world/u-s-govt-uses-cbs-news-cover-microwave-cell-tower-torture
NowPublic.com/scrivener

Posted by: scrivener50 | April 7, 2010 9:03 AM | Report abuse

KOZ used the phrase

"...who can't tolerate any dissent from outright extremism."

Do you mean that I cannot tolerate people who disagree with my extremist positions? Or do you mean that I was intolerant of extremists who dissent?

In either case, I will try for more tolerance. My own biases are notoriously weak. :-)

Posted by: mark_in_austin | April 7, 2010 8:53 AM | Report abuse

Ddawd, it is a "weak" bias. Texican Rs beat Anglo Ds in GEs. If some Rs x-over it is not significant. I remember
that you were talking about what I would call a "strong" bias. When BHO was a candidate, we discussed "weak" biases that could be overcome and "strong" ones, that could not. Most people have weak biases of some sort, but some have strong biases, unmoved by facts. Lawyers tell jurors this all the time on voir dire and ask them if, in spite of their predispositions, they will consider only the facts in evidence. Most jurors actually try. We try to read the liars on voir dire and strike them. It is inexact, of course.

I ate at a N.O. style restaurant here last night and it was really quite good by any standards. Reminded me of when I was still trying cases and would do appellate work before the 5th C. in N.O. I could gain eight lbs. in the weekend before argument. Used the Tulane Law Library to do my last minute updating. USCA5 was on Royale, then moved for renovations a few blocks toward the river from St. Charles.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | April 7, 2010 8:46 AM | Report abuse

Oh boy. Another all day slander fest from defensive socialists who can't tolerate any dissent from outright extremism.

Rather than defend the loony and free spending policies of Dear Comrade Zero, the kooks and ignorant droolers on the fix prefer to attack the opposition with unmitigated lies and innaccurate nasty characterizations. If anyone has stoked racism, it is Dear Reader and his goons.

Posted by: Moonbat | April 7, 2010 8:46 AM | Report abuse

mark_in_austin writes
"In races where the candidates are essentially low profile, in TX a Spanish name loses in the R primary to an Anglo name."

In MN it certainly doesn't hurt to have a scandinavian name. Some have theorized that Bob Anderson's 10% in the Bachmann v Tinklenberg race was largely due to his name, not his positions (particularly since he had essentially no campaign). I've seen it alleged that Margaret Anderson-Kelliher hyphenated her name primarily for the Anderson affect.

Posted by: bsimon1 | April 7, 2010 8:44 AM | Report abuse

Oh yeah, I remember seeing that from yesterday, Mark. The one I was talking about actually applied to general elections. As in, Republicans will actually switch over to vote Dem a lot more if they have a black candidate. Do you know if there is such a bias against Hispanics in the general elections in TX such that it induces crossing over?

Posted by: DDAWD | April 7, 2010 8:28 AM | Report abuse

Mark, I would argue that for some people in the Republican party the 'bias' you mention is very strong. Its a fact that there are racist voters out there on both sides of the aisle, and in the Republican party those racist voters will not vote for a non-white candidate under any circumstances. In most elections I would think that the bias can be easily overcome, but the GOP primary is so heavily influenced this year by the Tea-Party right-wing extremists that I think the racist trends will be harder to overcome, especially in places like the Southwest and southeast.

Posted by: AndyR3 | April 7, 2010 8:22 AM | Report abuse

I thought I remember someone from Hawaii saying that the race isnt' nearly as close as everyone is making it out to be. The only poll I could find was from a few months ago, but Case was well ahead of both the Republican and the other Democrat. The DCCC knows what they are doing and I like them going on the offensive to keep this seat.

The Illinois Senate Race will not be that close. People in Chicago are used to their politicians having a lose definition of ethics and it really won't matter 7 months from now. Also I wouldn't worry about the fundraising, since Obama can send one email to his supporters in Chi town and make up a 3 million dollar gap. On top of that if Banks didnt' give felons loans how would Congressmen pay for their houses?

I think the future of the Democrats hopes in the Nevada Governor's race will be very tightly tied to Harry Reid's reelection campaign, which he got off to a good start the other day.

Russ Feingold will win Reelection, period. He is too good a politician and can raise money like gangbusters.

Posted by: AndyR3 | April 7, 2010 8:17 AM | Report abuse

In races where the candidates are essentially low profile, in TX a Spanish name loses in the R primary to an Anglo name. See:

http://www.texastribune.org/stories/2010/mar/04/negative-name-recognition/

It will be interesting to see how Sandoval does in NV in the R Primary against an Anglo. My assumption is that R primary voters in NV are also overwhelmingly not Latino. If Sandoval spends heavily so that he is known beyond name recognition I assume he could overcome this [probably "weak"] bias, which I suspect is rampant among R voters in the west. It is also possible that Gibbons is so negative in his own party that the bias will be overcome.

Bottom line: if Gibbons, who is a relatively bad candidate, beats Sandoval, it reinforces the bias thesis. If he does not, it tends to show the bias is "weak" - and can be overcome by actual information. I do think the bias among TX Rs is "weak" - that is shown by the fact that latino Rs do win GEs against Anglos. They just have trouble in contested R primaries against Anglos.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | April 7, 2010 8:15 AM | Report abuse

Mitch Daniels actually did something like declare Butler the real winners of the tournament - whatever that means.

I'd have to think PA-12, which has been trending red over the past few Presidential elections and one of the few places to vote more for Kerry than Obama would be more important for Republicans to take than the one in Hawaii. If they lose the Hawaii one, it's simply what's to be expected from a heavily blue state. Obviously a win would be a big deal, but a loss doesn't really screw with the narrative.

PA-12 was essentially a tie between McCain and Obama (McCain barely won) To lose that one would suggest that the Republicans have peaked with Scott Brown. This could have ramifications in terms of fundraising. People will be less apt to donate if they don't think their donations will be of any use. And if the country is really so much more Republican than it was in 2008, PA-12 should be an easy pickup (special election caveats applying)

Posted by: DDAWD | April 7, 2010 7:49 AM | Report abuse

Health care reform is done.

The party of "no!" continues to be obstructionist obfuscators.

The Dow is approaching 11,000.

The economy is adding jobs.

The "wave" of Democratic retirements hasn't happened.

The "Tea Party" extremist lunatics have taken over the Republican Party.

The Democrats will maintain strong majorities in both Houses of Congress in November.

Posted by: Bondosan | April 7, 2010 7:08 AM | Report abuse

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